Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Role of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysis

71 views

Published on

Role of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysis

Published in: Environment
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Role of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysis

  1. 1. Role of power to heat in the energy system of Europe – A first analysis ETSAP Workshop Gothenburg 17th June 2018 Markus Blesl
  2. 2. Energy- and Climate Policies Modeling in TIMES  Scenario definition an Analysis  Some conclusions 26.06.2018 2 Outline
  3. 3. • For energy conversion units covered by the ETS (Emission Trading System), a binding reduction of emissions by a total of 21% in relation to 2005 according to EU Directive 2009/29/EC. For the phase 3 of the EU ETS (2013-2020) a linear reduction factor of 1.74% of allowances, compared to 2008-2012 average is given. • In March 2011, the European Commission made a proposal for a reduction of 80-95% of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 by 2050 in its "Roadmap for the transition to a competitive low-carbon economy by 2050" • In October 2014, the Commission adopted the Climate and Energy Package with the objectives for the year 2030. The targets are 40% greenhouse gas reduction, 27% renewable energy share and the reduction of primary energy consumption by 27%. Energy and climate policy objectives in the EU-28
  4. 4. exchange centralised structures distributed structures bulk storageconv. power stations distributed storage new construction transmission grid distribution gridsmall conv. power stations + biomass bulk storage consumer demand side managemt flexible operation compressed-air storage electric storage power-to-gas thermal storage (power-to-heat) hydraulic storagegrid expansion flexible operation grid expansion gas grid heat Non-dispatchable RES (PV, wind onshore) curtailment wind offshore curtailment expansion of interconnection hydraulic storage demand response chemical storage generation grid & demand stoarges Power-to-X 4 Flexibility options in the electricity system Power-to-heat
  5. 5. 5 Times PanEU Model Energy System Model I/II Characterization TIMES PanEU  European energy system model EU28, Norway, Switzerland, Baden-Württemberg  Technology-oriented, bottom-up optimization model with perfect foresight  Country-specific detailing of the energy generation and the demand sector, as well as detailed mapping of the boundary coupling line capacities according to ETSO  Intertemporal optimization in the period 2010 – 2050  12 sub-annual time segments (four seasonal and three daily segments)  Emissions: Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O)  Sector-based: public and industrial energy supply, industry, households, Commercial and tertiary sector, transport, agriculture and refineries  Objective function: minimization of the total costs (optimization model)
  6. 6. 12.01.2017IER Universität Stuttgart 6 Energy System Model II/II Times PanEU Model Cost and emissions balance GDP Process energy Heating area Population Light Communication Power Person kilometers Freight kilometers Demand services Coal processing Refineries Power plants and Heating plants Electric grid and District heat networks Gas network Industry Commercial and tertiary sector Households Transportation Final energyPrimary energy Domestic sources Imports Demands Energyprices,Resourceavailability Energy Crops (domestic&imports) Hydroelectric power and photovoltaics Agriculture Heat Cooling Heat Cooling Heat Cooling
  7. 7. 26.06.2018 7 Scenario definition Over all assumptions; Energy prices form the WEO 2017; population and GDP projection from the EU ETS -1.7 %/a reduction of the CO2 – Emissions for the Emission trading system -80 % -80% GHG reduction till 2050 compared to 1990 over all sectors
  8. 8. 26.06.2018 8 Electricity generation in the EU28 a scenario comparison -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2010 2015 ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80% 2020 2030 2040 2050 Netelectricity[TWh] Electricity storage (excl. pump storage) Net Imports Others / Waste non-ren. Other Renewables Biomass / Waste ren. Solar Wind offshore Wind onshore Hydro (incl. pump storage) Nuclear Gas CCS Gas w/o CCS Oil Lignite CCS Lignite w/o CCS Coal CCS Coal w/o CCS
  9. 9. 26.06.2018 9 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2010 2015 ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80% 2020 2030 2040 2050 Totalfinalenergyconsumption[PJ] Others (Methanol, Hydrogen) Waste Renewables Heat Electricity Gas Petroleum products Coal Final energy consumption in the EU28 a scenario comparison
  10. 10. 26.06.2018 10 Final energy consumption electricity for heat a scenario comparison 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2010 2012 2015 ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80% 2020 2030 2040 2050 Finalenergyconsumptionelectricityforheatin[PJ] Comercial Cooling Comercial Hot Water Comercial Space heating Residential Cooling Residential Hot Water Residential Space heating Industry
  11. 11. 26.06.2018 11 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2010 2012 2015 ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80% 2020 2030 2040 2050 Districtheatgenerationin[PJ] Boiler Solarthermal Boiler Electricity Boiler others CHP Geothermal CHP Others CHP Biogas Boiler Biomas CHP Biomas Boiler gas CHP gas CHP oil CHP lignite CHP coal District heat generation in the EU28 a scenario comparison
  12. 12. 26.06.2018 12 Heat generation by heat pumps in the EU28 a scenario comparison 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 20102015 ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80% ETS -80% 2020 2030 2040 2050 HeatProductionin[PJ] Industry Chemical Industry Food Industry Other Industry Paper Buildings Residential Buildings Commercial District heating
  13. 13. • Power-to-heat especially with heat pumps makes a contribution to manage the negative residual load, to improve the efficiency of the whole energy system and to integrate a higher share of renewables in the energy system. • The proposed solutions for the energy transition depends on the integrated technologies in the energy system but also on the availability of the infrastructur. • The decarbonisation of the whole energy systems needs a new thinking – a combination between resource/energy efficiency and a digital world 26.06.2018 13 Some Conclusion and Outlook
  14. 14. E-Mail Telefon +49 (0) 711 685- Universität Stuttgart Energiewirtschaft und Systemtechnische Analyse (SAM) PD Dr.-Ing. Markus Blesl 87 865 Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER) Markus.Blesl@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Thank you for your attention !

×