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Update on Australian TIMES Model Development


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Update on Australian TIMES Model Development

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Update on Australian TIMES Model Development

  1. 1. Update on Australian TIMES model development ENERGY Luke Reedman December 11, 2017 | ETSAP Researcher Workshop, Zurich, SWITZERLAND
  2. 2. Outline • Overview of CSIRO • Energy landscape in Australia • Energy system modelling at CSIRO • AUS-TIMES model development • Future plans 2 |
  3. 3. 3 | Who we are Darwin Alice Springs Geraldton 2 sites Atherton Townsville 2 sites Rockhampton Toowoomba Gatton Myall Vale Narrabri Mopra Parkes Griffith Belmont Geelong Hobart Sandy Bay Wodonga Newcastle Armidale 2 sites Perth 3 sites Adelaide 3 sites Sydney 5 sites Canberra 7 sites Murchison Cairns Irymple Melbourne 5 sites Werribee 2 sites Brisbane 6 sites Bribie Island People 5565 Sites 59 Business Units 9 Budget $1.2B We develop 856 postgraduate research students with our university partners
  5. 5. 5 | Energy Business Unit/ Grids & Energy Efficiency Program Oil, Gas and Fuels Low Emissions Technologies Unconventional Gas Grids and Energy Efficiency Systems Coal Mining $16.6m budget 55 EFT staff (not including students) Grids and Renewable Energy Integration Domain Energy Efficiency Domain Australian Energy Model Building Simulation, Assessment and Communication Intelligent Demand Control Solar Cooling Energy Transition Pathways Storage Network Optimisation
  6. 6. Major research facilities: Solar thermal central receivers; New photovoltaics fabrication; Renewable Energy Integration Facility; HVAC test facility.. CSIRO Energy Centre - Newcastle
  7. 7. Energy in Australia 7 |
  8. 8. Energy flows 8 |
  9. 9. Australia vs Europe 9 |
  10. 10. High voltage grid, generation and population 10 |
  11. 11. Power generation mix changes 11 |
  12. 12. Percentage of dwellings with Solar PV 12 |
  13. 13. Electricity consumption growth declining … 13 |
  14. 14. Stop-start policy • End 2006 – Bipartisan support for emissions trading • December 2007 – Kyoto Protocol ratified in Australia • December 2009 – Liberal-National Coalition withdraws bipartisan support for emission trading or any type of carbon price • July 2012 – Carbon tax policy comes into effect at $23/tCO2e as compromise policy under minority “hung” parliament. Designed to revert to emission trading scheme in 2015, linking to Europe where carbon permit prices are lower • July 2014 – Carbon tax policy repeal comes into effect • Early 2015 – Government implements abatement auction process without legislation for a cost of around $15/tCO2e • 2015 – LRET reduced • Still uncertainty over medium- to long-term target (despite Paris Agreement) 14 |
  15. 15. AUS-TIMES development 15 |
  16. 16. CSIRO’s general energy modelling “suite” 16 | Demand model ESM DiSCoM Customer impact GALLM Global and local technology costs Annual down to hourly load profiles incorporating DSM, PVs, EVs and other DE Annual centralised and on-site electricity market Annual road and non-road transport market Distribution system cost model
  17. 17. CSIRO’s general energy modelling “suite” 17 | Demand model ESM DiSCoM Customer impact GALLM Global and local technology costs Annual down to hourly load profiles incorporating DSM, PVs, EVs and other DE Annual centralised and on-site electricity market Annual road and non-road transport market Distribution system cost model AUS-TIMES
  18. 18. • Whole energy sector • Detailed demand-side • Multiple spatial scales • High penetration VRE scenarios • Storage representation • Peer support and development • Familiar with GAMS • ESM shortcomings • CSIRO strategy Why move to TIMES framework? 18 |
  19. 19. AUS-TIMES structure • Base year 2015, model horizon 2050 • 16 time slices • 8 region model – state/territory • End-use sectors • Residential (heating, cooling, hot water, lighting, cooking, appliances/other) • Services (heating, cooling, hot water, lighting, cooking, appliances/other) • Industry and agriculture (no disaggregation yet) • Transport (10 road vehicle classes, aviation, rail, shipping) • Electricity sector • NEM (16 zones), SWIS, NWIS, DKIS, MIIS • Existing generation fleet – unit level data • Renewable resource availability/potential • Many technologies 19 |
  20. 20. AUS-TIMES scenario results - electricity 20 |
  21. 21. AUS-TIMES scenario results - electricity 21 |
  22. 22. AUS-TIMES scenario results – road transport 22 |
  23. 23. Australian National Outlook plus off-model quantitative analysis as required eg urban form and density, productivity, energy use, resource efficiency, tourism and education National AUS-TIMES energy (electricity and transport) VURM multi-sector national economy MEFISTO material stocks & flows GDM biodiversity LUTO land use, food and fibre NIAM.Flow water VU Cities (spatial sorting of firms and households) Global GALLM.E electricity GTAP.ME3 multi-sector global economy MAGICC global temperature GALLM.T transport GLOBIOM land use, food and fibre BILBI biodiversity (global scale) Established ANO1 model Upgraded model Upgrade available – not in use Replacement model New model, expanding scope New model – not in use Legend:
  24. 24. AUS-TIMES – next stage • Renewable resource availability o Pumped storage hydro o Biomass o Ocean (wave/tidal) o Geothermal • Distributed generation • Collaboration with ClimateWorks Australia (demand sectors) o Building types for residential and services o Industrial sub-sectors o Technology database • Link with PLEXOS? • CSIRO pull o CSP, H2, energy efficiency, DSR • External pull o DoEE, AEMO, State Governments 24 |
  25. 25. Thank you Dr Luke Reedman Lead | Energy Transition Pathways CSIRO Energy t +61 2 49606057 e w ENERGY Acknowledgements Ken Noble, Brian Ó Gallachóir, George Giannakidis, Paul Dodds, Adrian Stone, Gary Goldstein, Amit Kanudia CSIRO team: Thomas Brinsmead, Paul Graham, Jeremy Qiu, Jenny Hayward, Dongxiao Wang CWA team: Amandine Denis, Iain Stewart, Rob Kelly, Wei Sue