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Should the focus be on broader policy goals or on specific technology targets?


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Should the focus be on broader policy goals or on specific technology targets? – A case study from the Swiss transportation sector

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Should the focus be on broader policy goals or on specific technology targets?

  1. 1. WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN Should the focus be on broader policy goals or on specific technology targets? – A case study scoping on the Swiss transportation sector Ramachandran Kannan :: EEG, LEA :: Paul Scherrer Institut ETSAP semi-annual workshop, Madrid, Spain 17-18 November 2016
  2. 2. •Overview of the Swiss energy system •Swiss TIMES energy system model (STEM) •Scenarios and results •Conclusions and outlook Page 2 Outline
  3. 3. Overview of the Swiss energy system Page 3 Energy Economy (2015) • Energy expenditure: CHF 26.36 Billion (4.1% of GDP) • Energy import: CHF 6.2 Billion (2.4% of import expenditures) • Energy import dependency: 75.4%
  4. 4. Overview of the Swiss energy system Page 4 Electricity generation mix (2015)
  5. 5. Overview of the Swiss energy system Page 5 The Swiss energy strategy 2050 CO2 emissions reductions in 2050 from 2010 level • Business as usual (WWB): 19 - 29% • Policy Measures (POM): 37-50% • New Energy Policy (NEP): 60-67% Underlying demand drivers are same for all the scenarios!! Without centralised natural gas power plantsWith centralised natural gas power plants
  6. 6. Overview of the Swiss energy system Page 6 The Swiss energy strategy 2050 • 25 – 60% transport sector energy demand reduction by 2050 from 2010 level • 30-40% electric cars by 2050 e-cars Fuel demand
  7. 7. What are ultimate objectives of our scenarios? Page 7 • To assess broader policy objectives • Decarbonisation of the entire energy system (60-80%) • Transport (or sectoral) energy, CO2 emission reduction targets in the energy strategy? • To assess specific technology objectives • To meet e-mobility targets in the energy strategy • Certain fleet level CO2 targets on g-CO2/km basis
  8. 8. • A whole energy system model of Switzerland in an (cost) optimization framework − Primary energy supply to end use (all end-use sectors with sub-sector details, detail electricity and fuel supply modules, CO2 emission tracking, taxes, etc.) Page 8 Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) Fuel supply module Fuel distribution module Demand modulesElectricity supply module Resource module Electricity import Uranium Natural gas Hydrogen Electricity export Electricity Gasoline Diesel Renewable • Solar • Wind • Biomass • Waste Electricity storage Hydro resource • Run-of rivers • Reservoirs CO2 Demand technologies Residential - Boiler - Heat pump - Air conditioner - Appliances Services Industires Hydro plants Nuclear plants Natural gas GTCC Solar PV Wind Geothermal Other Taxes & Subsidies Fuel cell Energy service demands Person transportat ion Lighting Motors Space heating Hot water Oil Transport Car fleet ICE Hybrid vehicles PHEV BEV Fuel cell Bus Rail Macroeconomicdrivers(e.g.,population,GDP,floorarea,vkm) Internationalenergyprices(oil,naturalgas,electricity,...) Technologycharacterization(Efficiency,lifetime,costs,…) Resourcepotential(wind,solar,biomass,….) Biofuels Biogas vkm-Vehicle kilometre tkm-tonne kilometre LGV-Light goods vehicles HGV-Heavy good vehicles SMR-steam methane reformer GTCC-gas turbine combined cycle plant Oil refinery Process heat FreightsTrucks HGV Rail Natural gas Heating oil
  9. 9. • A whole energy system model of Switzerland. • Long time horizon (2010–2100) & an hourly time resolution for typical days. • Transparent and well documented model input data and assumptions. • Peer reviewed publications. Page 9 Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)
  10. 10. Transportation module • 10 modes of demand (e.g. car, buses, trucks) • 4 market segments for cars (<60kW, 60- 100kW, 100-140kW, >140kW) by fuel and drivetrain • Simplified fuel distribution network • Transportation fuel taxes • Endogenous charging of electric cars Page 10 Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) Other modules Vehicle technology Fuel distribution Demands Car fleet Diesel ICE Gasoline ICE Gas ICE Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Gasoline Hybrid Gas Hydrogen ICE Plug-in hybrid Battery Electric Vehicle Hydrogen Electricity Gasoline Natural Gas Diesel Hydrogen Fuelcell Bus LGV HGV Rail Aviation Electricity supply module Personal transport Freight transport Refinery Resource module Fuel conversion (e.g. Hydrogen, biofules) Biofuel Taxes Other end use sectors CO2 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 Normalisedweeklydemand Hours Car drive pattern Weekday Weekend
  11. 11. • Base − Travel demands from Swiss Energy Strategy 2050 − Nuclear phase-out and option for new gas power plants − Annual self-sufficiency in electricity supply Page 11 Scenario definition • Transport CO2 emission mitigation − 40% CO2 emission reduction from 2010 level in transport sector as in the POM scenario (T-40) − T-60 (as in NEP scenario) • Energy system-wide CO2 mitigation − Whole energy system-wide CO2 emission reduction of 60% by 2050 from 2010 level as in the NEP scenario variant C (S-60) − NEP scenario variant RES – i.e. 67% total reduction (or 80% in domestic CO2 emission) or (S-67)
  12. 12. •ICE  hybrid (small size) •ICE  diesel (long range) Page 12 Car fleet technology and tailpipe CO2
  13. 13. • Fuel 40% reduction in fuel from 2010 level • CO2  53% CO2 emission reduction from 2010 level Page 13 Car fleet fuel demand
  14. 14. Transport sectoral cap  plug-in hybrid & biodiesel System-wide cap  Battery electric and gas hybrid Car fleet: Technology 2050 Gasoline hybrid cars Gasoline plug-in hybrid cars Electric cars Page 14
  15. 15. Electricity supply Page 15 2050 Hydro GAS CHP PV Transport sectoral cap  Electricity demand increase System-wide cap  Electricity demand declines CHPNuclear
  16. 16. Page 16 Electricity supply and demand in 2050 WinterweekdaysSummerweekdays Marginal cost electricity Gasoline hybrid car Pumping Exports Demand BEV charging Battery electric vehicles Base scenario
  17. 17. 2050 • Transport sector CO2 emission targets shift the emissions to electricity and industry Page 17 CO2 emissions Electricity Transport Industry
  18. 18. • Net emissions are higher than tailpipe emission • Still e-mobility contributes to net reduction Page 18 Car fleet energy and CO2 emission 2050
  19. 19. • There is no linear relation between electricity demands and load profile Page 19 Electricity demands and load curves in 2050 Winter Summer
  20. 20. Page 20 Electricity demands and load curves in 2050
  21. 21. • E-mobility can decarbonise car fleet and contributes to net reduction in CO2 emissions. • Transport specific CO2 target does not result in net system- wide reduction in CO2 emissions, instead it leads to carbon leakage to other sectors. • Given the phase-out of nuclear generation, clear policy for electricity sector is required to ensure that capacity is built to achieve the low-carbon target, including signals for continued expansion of generation from renewable energy. • It is essential to ensure consistency between policies on electricity and end-use sectors (e.g. promotion of e-mobility and expansion of new centralised power plants). Page 21 Conclusions
  22. 22. • How to enhance mobility representation in STEM − Range and size  are they independent? − Short vs. long range cars − Big vs. small cars − Further disaggregation  How to avoid computational time? • How to address non-cost driver / barriers −Battery charging time and infrastructure • Modal shift − Refining demands from vehicle (vkm) to personal (pkm) − Is there a way to control domination of specific modes (other than user constraints)? • Storage − Is vehicle to grid reality? Page 22 Outlook
  23. 23. Page 23 Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen Thank you!