This document describes a framework for developing transport scenarios for Denmark through an iterative process involving qualitative scenario workshops and quantitative modeling using the TIMES-DK energy system model. The goal is to bridge qualitative and quantitative tools to create robust and sustainable pathways for Denmark's future energy and transport system. Scenario workshops were held with citizens, stakeholders, and researchers to discuss drivers and design scenarios, which were then modeled in TIMES-DK and results assessed. Challenges addressed include simplifying the scenario interface and reducing run-time to allow for greater interaction and testing of different policy pathways. The process provides opportunities for discussion, validation of assumptions, and understanding of system dynamics and interdependencies.

1. Development of transport scenarios for Denmark
An iterative and participatory perspective
Zurich – 72th Semi-annual ETSAP meeting
12th December, 2017
Giada Venturini
PhD Student
Energy System Analysis
Technical University of Denmark
give@dtu.dk

2. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Background
Mutual validation of two perspectives
Enlarge model structure to integrate new parameters
Difficulty in attributing quantitative estimates to uncertain drivers
Implicit information in qualitative scenario discourse
Scope and capabilities of modelling tools
Qualitative
scenarios
Explore and capture
causal relations and
interdependencies
Quantitative
scenarios
Model the
deterministic structure
of the system
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3. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Case study
Case: Transport scenarios for Denmark - Analysing 100% RE pathways
Research questions
Methodology
o How can we bridge qualitative and quantitative tools for the creation of
scenarios in TIMES-DK?
o What do we gain from this dialogue? How can it be improved?
Transport and energy system
o What are robust and sustainable pathways for the future energy and
transport system in Denmark?
o Which policy measures can support the recommended pathways?
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4. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Framework for scenario development
Workshop
Translation
Quantification
TIMES-DK
Workshop
Workshop
WorkshopWorkshop
1 2
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5. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Energy system model TIMES-DK
Primary Energy Supply
Import/Export/Mining
Oil
Coal
Gas
Gasoline
Diesel
Biofuels
Energy crops
Manure
Straw
Waste
Wood chips
Wood pellets
Electricity
Conversion Technologies
Crude oil refineries
Combined heat and
power plants
Biorefineries & biogas
plants
Electric
boilers and heat pumps
End-use sectors
Residential
Industry
Transport
Fossil Biomass Electricity
Blended
fuels
Blending
Technologies
ElectricityBiofuels
Fossil
fuels Heat
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6. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Structure of transport sector
WALK
MOPED
BIKE
METRO
CAR
BUS
MOTO
COACH
TRAIN
LIGHT TRAIN
Fuels
Fossil
ShortDistance
Demands
ExtraShortDistance
LongDistance
MediumDistance
Time
...
Transport
infrastructures
EXISTING
INFSTR_METRO
EXISTING
INFSTR_ROAD
EXISTING
INFSTR_BIKE
EXISTING
INFSTR_RAIL
NEW
INFSTR_BIKE
NEW
INFSTR_METRO
NEW
INFSTR_RAIL
NEW
INFSTR_ROAD
= Fuel
Legend
TECH = Technology
= Demands
= Flow
INFRASTR = Infrastructure
process
= Time
= Infrastructure
commodities
TTB
Cyclinglane
Metrorailway
Trainrailway
Road
Tattini et al. (2018)
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7. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Qualitative scenarios
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8. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Qualitative scenarios
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9. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
TIMES-DK scenario interface
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10. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
TIMES-DK scenario interface
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11. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
TIMES-DK scenario interface
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12. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Scenario workshops
Citizens, stakeholders and researchers involved in the creation of
transport-focused scenarios for Denmark
Discussion of
driving forces
and uncertain
parameters
Design of
scenarios
through TIMES-
DK interface
Assessment and
comparison of
scenario results
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13. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Scenario workshops
Scenario Main Assumptions
Base
• No emission caps
• No RE% targets after 2020
• No restrictions on power and biomass imports
• Baseline taxation scheme for all sectors
Transport Measures
• Phase-out of fossil fuels in transport by 2035
(excluding maritime); other sectors by
2030/2035
• Imports of biomass not allowed from 2020
• Improved bike & public transport infrastructure
• Increased car occupancy levels
• Feebate scheme supporting alternative vehicles
Target
Same as Base, except phase-out of fossil fuels in
transport by 2035, other sectors by 2030/2035.
Allow Biofuels
Same as Transport Measures, except biomass
imports are allowed.
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14. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Scenario results
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Base Transport Measures Target Allow Biofuels
Mpass-km
Demand by Mode - Inland Passenger
Walk
Train
Strain
Motorbike
Moped
Metro
Coach
Car
Bus
Bike
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15. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Scenario results
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050Base Transport Measures
kvehicles
Car Stock
Otto Engine Blending 1 - Existing
LPG - Existing
Gas Engine Blending 1 - Existing
Electricity BEV - Existing
Diesel Engine Blending 1 - Existing
Hybrid Electric Vehicle Gasoline 4 -
New
Hybrid Electric Vehicle Gasoline 3 -
New
Battery Electric Vehicle - New
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16. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Scenario results
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Base Target
PJ
Transport Fuel Consumption
Bio Synt Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Liquid petrol gas
Biokerosene
Kerosene
Heavy Fuel Oil
Gasoline
Bioethanol
Electricity
Diesel
Biodiesel
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17. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Scenario results
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Transport Measures Allow Biofuels
PJ
Biomass use
Import - Wood pellets
Import - Wood chips
Import - Waste
Import - Sugar Beet
Import - Rapeseed
Export - Glycerol
Export - Biogas
Domestic - Straw
Domestic - Manure
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18. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Scenario results
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Base Transport Measures Allow Biofuels
Kt
Emissions CO2
TRACO2NN
TRACO2NI
TRACO2A
TRACO2
SUPCO2
RESCO2
INDCO2
ELCCO2W
ELCCO2
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19. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Learning opportunities
• The method provides space for:
– Discussion and debate over relevant drivers
– Common evaluation of pathways
– Understanding of cause-effect relationships
– Validation of assumptions
• Different development trajectories and policies can be tested: importance
of participation and interaction in the scenario creation
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20. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Challenges and further work
• Simplification or modification of scenario interface: adjust tool to group
needs
• Time constraints: faster result generation
• Provide further guidance on drivers’ impacts: sensitivity analyses,
screening of results…
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21. DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Thank you for your attention!
Comments, doubts, suggestions?
Giada Venturini
PhD Student
Energy System Analysis
DTU Management Engineering
give@dtu.dk
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