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Energy systems modelling and CCS: Insights from the COMET project

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Energy systems modelling and CCS: Insights from the COMET project

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Energy systems modelling and CCS: Insights from the COMET project

  1. 1. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA Maurizio Gargiulo, E4SMA maurizio.gargiulo@e4sma.com 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting College Park Marriott Hotel & Conference Center, 3501 University Blvd East, Hyattsville, Maryland, USA. 10th – 11th July 2017 Energy systems modelling and CCS: Insights from the COMET project
  2. 2. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA 1. Introduction 2. The TIMES-CCS model 3. Input to the TIMES-COMET model 4. Scenarios 5. Results 6. Conclusion Outline 2/22
  3. 3. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA COMET - Integrated infrastructure for CO2 transport and storage in the west Mediterranean (Spain, Portugal and Morocco) is an EU FP7 funded project (http://comet.lneg.pt/) ended in 2012 focused on. • Identifying and assessing the most cost effective CO2 transport and storage infrastructure able to serve Portugal, Spain and Morocco. • Considering the time and spatial aspects of the development of the energy sector and other industrial activities. • Taking into consideration the location, capacity and availability of potential CO2 storage geological formations. • Paying special attention to a balanced decision on transport modes/routes, matching the sources and sinks, addressing safety and lifetime objectives; and • Meeting optimal cost - benefit trade-off, for a CCS network infrastructure as part of an international cooperation policy. 1. The EU-FP7 COMET research project 3/22
  4. 4. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA 1. The EU-FP7 COMET Partners 4/22
  5. 5. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA • Represent national energy systems and the geographical details of CCS infrastructures in the same technical-economic model. • The TIMES-COMET model integrate:  The national TIMES models of Morocco, Portugal and Spain, with both spatial and temporal details, and a  CCS infrastructure module of the West Mediterranean built in TIMES. • Design and implement scenarios as a function of assumptions on the development to 2050 of mitigation levels, economic growth and CO2 capture-transport storage characteristics. 1. The COMET approach 5/22
  6. 6. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA . 2. The TIMES-COMET model TIMES-CCS module 6/22
  7. 7. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA 3. Input - Emission sources: location of 78 clusters Emission sources database • With technical characteristics and geographical location of CO2 sources based on average emitted more than 0.1 Mt CO2/a in the period 2005-2009 in Morocco, Portugal and Spain (almost 300, with a total emission of about 150 Mt CO2 in 2009) • In which for each emission point, the sector (Electricity, Refineries, Iron and Steel, Cement, Glass, Pulp and Paper, Other Industries), and the main energy carriers (Biomass, Coal, Natural Gas, Oil, Waste) are specified. • A set of areas, where all emission sources are aggregated in 78 emission clusters. 7/22
  8. 8. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA 3. Input - Sinks: location of 43 clusters Sinks database • Techno-economic characteristics and geographical location of about 160 geological formations in Morocco, Portugal and Spain with a potential of  7.7 Gt CO2 in Portugal;  23 Gt CO2 in Spain (with an onshore sink potential of around 75% of the total Iberian potential), and  0.4 Gt CO2 in Morocco. • A set of areas, where all the storage formations are aggregated in 43 sink clusters. 8/22
  9. 9. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA 3. Input - Other inputs to the model • The distances among all clusters (emission clusters to emission clusters and emission clusters to sink clusters) are calculated in a GIS system. • Costs estimated with the appropriate terrain factors (‘relative cost variation with respect to standard cost’), as dependent on the diameter (and the maximum possible annual CO2 flow). • Technical economic characteristics of CCS related technologies – capture, compression, transport, and injection in the sink and of competing mitigation options. 9/22
  10. 10. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA 3. Input - The CO2 transport network 10/22
  11. 11. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA In all scenario there the same assumptions about: • technological developments; • CCS technologies learning curves; • CO2 unit transport costs, and • policies of the whole energy sector. 4. Scenarios 11/22
  12. 12. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA • CCS is applicable only to large emission sources, in this case > 0.1 MtCO2. • In Spain 30% and Portugal 38% can be captured now and after 2020 less. 4. Scenario drivers: emission sources 2005 CO2 emissions by country and concentration level / capture potential 12/22
  13. 13. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA 4. Scenarios drivers: CCS characteristics Characteristics of the CO2 capture technologies in the model 13/22
  14. 14. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA • Compared to the 1990 CO2 emissions from the energy system and most industrial processes, three emission reduction levels to 2050 where analysed for Spain+Portugal:  -20%, meaning keeping the emission constant after 2020  -40%, linearly interpolated  -80%, linearly interpolated, which has to be the target of OECD countries, if the temperature increase is kept below 3ºC • Morocco has no commitments till 2050, but can sell permits to ES+PT up to 20% of their mitigation commitments. • ES+PT can buy permits from the Rest of the Word (RoW), at prices increasing from 50 €’2005/tCO2 to 150 in the -40% cases and to 350 in the -80% cases. 4. Scenario drivers: CO2 emission reduction level 14/22
  15. 15. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA In this case study, the cumulative amount stored in 40 years is 14% of the permanent storage capacity in ES+MO+PT, mainly available in Spain, and the maximum annual flow does not exceed 50% of the annual injection capacity. 4. Scenario drivers: permanent CO2 storage formations 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Storagecost(€'2005/tCO2) Cumulative potential (GtCO2) HIGH LOW Cumulative storage cost curve in ES+MO+PT 15/22
  16. 16. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA • In the free case the 78 emission clusters can send CO2 to 43 storage clusters using >3000 routes. • In the case following the gas network only 200 routes are permitted, in both cases with or without crossing the borders. 4. Scenario drivers: pipelines routes 16/22
  17. 17. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA Net CO2 emissions 5. Results 17/22
  18. 18. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA Spain CO2 emissions (MtCO2/a) 5. Results 18/22
  19. 19. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA 5. Results Captured CO2 Stored CO2 Capture and storage by cluster and year - CONSERVATIVE CCS scenario 19/22
  20. 20. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA Optimal development of the CCS transport network by scenario and year 5. Results 20/22
  21. 21. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA 6. Conclusion • CCS is generally competitive and exploited to its maximum technical potential under wide assumptions about:  storage potentials and cost, transport routes and costs, capture technologies emissions and costs, cost of the main other mitigation technologies. • CCS can play a significant role in the Iberian Peninsula under intermediate and strong mitigation scenarios. With low economic growth assumptions CCS remains competitive but the market is reduced. • When the mitigation target becomes more stringent, CCS does not reduce enough; countries are obliged to reduce emissions at the source. • Capture potential and pipeline network constraints appear stronger determinants of deployment levels compared to engineering costs and storage potentials. • If CCS is not available, less CO2 emissions are generated using other more expensive mitigation options and buying expensive permits. • Since the cost difference between the scenarios with free routes and the scenarios with routes following natural gas pipelines is negligible in terms of cost and cumulative storage, it seems that there is room for negotiating socially acceptable infrastructures. 21/22
  22. 22. 71st Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Maurizio Gargiulo July 10th – 11th, 2017, Maryland, USA E4SMA Via Livorno 60 – Environment Park Torino, Italy +39 011.225.7351 e4sma.com e4sma@e4sma.com Twitter: @E4SMAsrl LinkedIn: E4SMA 22/22

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