A Compatible Energy Trilemma Evaluation Framework for Future Decarbonized, Decentralized, and Digitalized Systems

1. A Compatible Energy Trilemma Evaluation Framework
for future Decarbonized, Decentralized, and Digitalized
systems
Omri Carmon
Dr. Naama Teschner, Prof. Yael Parag, Dr. Shiri Zemah-Shamir
ETSAP summer workshop, Golden, Colorado
June 16, 2023

2. How do we imagine a healthy
and resilient energy system?
This question by which energy modelers
make a living – becomes ever more critical
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine begets a global
shock of unprecedented breadth and
complexity
Coming out of COVID, leaving energy
markets extremely vulnerable, it reminds us
of the fragility of our current energy system

3. Moving Towards HEALTHIER, RESILIENT Energy Systems
(A 3-Legged Stool)
Can we live with it?
Can we count on it?
Can we all afford it?
(World Enenrgy Council, 2021)

4. Balancing the Energy Trilemma Goals via
A Composite Index
• Index: Dimensions (3+1), Categories
Indicators, Weights
• Metrics: quantifying and annually rank
national energy systems performance
• A multi-criteria problem: Binary trade-
offs are insufficient
• Integrated policy frameworks for
sustainable energy systems
• Prioritization: Energy leaders and
researchers can decide where to
improve

5. Energy transformation
within D3 pathways
Historically, a sector focused on cost and
transmission efficiency, NOT externalities
Responding to climate change and the
energy crises accelerates the transition to
sustainable energy systems
Nevertheless, a new mindset is needed to
incorporate energy transformation
*Power & heat = 1/3 global GHG

6. Transformation & Electrification
Consumers
Power
producers
Utilities Suppliers

7. Transformation & Electrification

8. Moving into a DISTRIBUTED, LOCALIZED system
New technologies
New players New services & business models

9. The Problem:
Current indicators may guide
strategic energy decisions, but they
do not sufficiently account for the
characteristics of developing
energy systems

10. KNOWLEDGE GAPS
New dilemmas and trade-offs
existing trilemma does not
address
Unclear what and how D3
power system implications
achieve future trilemma
goals
Trilemma metrics are not
designed to evaluate D3
electricity systems
Scenarios often use limited,
randomized indicators for a
trilemma lens

11. WHAT ARE THE TRILEMMA INDEX MODIFICATIONS THAT ARE NEEDED
TO ADDRESS FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEMS’:
ENERGY
SECURITY
ENERGY EQUITY
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY

12. Research goal: Properly
assess the implications
of future D3 power
systems through a
modified D3 energy
trilemma index
1. Understand the characteristics of
the new energy development models
by proposing “D3 system
archetypes” and collate them
into an analytical typology
2. Highlight the data needed for
projected D3 systems and Propose
the proper set of modified metrics
for future D3 energy systems
towards achieving energy trilemma
goals by:
1. Modifying existing indicators
2. Introducing new indicators

13. Goal 1:
Collate key features
of D3 systems as
development
archetypes
OBJECTIVE METHOD DATA
Identify key defining
features contributing
to emerging D3
development
configurations
• Comprehensive
lit. review
(transition
pathways,
projections):
Review papers;
White papers
• Feature themes:
Spatial,
Institutional,
Technical
• 25 most cited papers on
sustainable energy
development in energy
AND social sciences OR
engineering OR
multidisciplinary
• 21 reports from IEA, IRENA,
NREL, EU, EIA, BNEF,
REN21, WEC, WRI, UNDP,
WB
Identify recurring
patterns of D3
configurations,
designating them as
D3 energy system
archetypes
• Review concrete
examples (case
studies or
theoretical
description)
• Descriptive analysis
• Expert formalization
• 24 papers, 9 policy reports
• 10 experts – Utility, policy,
start-ups, NGO, community
representatives
Collate archetypes
into a typology
Analytical typology on
influencing variables
and their implications
on system formation
and perpetuation
(Eitan, 2019; Given, 2008)

14. Key Defining Features
Theme Defining Feature Characteristics
Spatial
RE resource availability Solar, Onshore wind Offshore wind, Geothermal, Hydro Biomass, Wave
Land availability Significant/minimal land Urban density and rooftops suitability Rural and agricultural conservation
Institutional
Policy and regulation Policy Ambition Regulatory Discretion Transparency
Institutional characteristics Institutional and human capacity T&D system management practices Regulatory and institutional setup
Political economy context Political stability and risks Influence of lobby
Power Market context and setup Open/closed markets Utilities Consumers
Partnerships Private participation Cross-border trading opportunities Import dependence – Fuels, energy technologies
Financial context Access to finance Financial risks Business model evolution
Key economic industries Key industries’ demand New D3 market establishments D3 manufacturing sector
Technical
Technology costs & innovation trends Technology cost projections on a regional scale Performance and capability trends Technology adoption rates
Grid characteristics New/old, interconnectedness; active/reactive Coverage of the T&D networks
Power system vulnerability Natural threats Physical threats Cyber threats

15. Designating key features into recurring patterns of
distinct D3 configurations as system archetypes
• Each archetype promotes a specific development pattern.
• Archetypes are used as building blocks for power systems
Consumer
involvement
Utility
involvement
Operator
involvement
DER prevalence T&D adaptivity Bulk revolution

16. Recurring patterns of distinct D3 configurations
Grid
characteristics
Innovation trends
Key industries Finance
Partnerships Market setup
Political context
Institutional
characteristics
Policy &
regulation
Land
RE availability
System
vulnerability
Implications
Consumer
involvement
Utility
involvement
Operator
involvement
DER prevalence T&D adaptivity Bulk revolution

17. Goal 2:
D3-compatible
energy trilemma
evaluation tree
Objective Method Source
Identify current trilemma
metrics and
characteristics
Lit. review - energy trilemma
indices
WEC methodology and
datasets report
(Weiss, et al., 2021; Song
et al., 2017; Heffron et al.,
2018)
Illuminate gaps
Where trilemma adresses
D3 implications
Highlight modifications
needed
for D3 energy systems
towards the trilemma
goals
A critical evaluation
comparing data from ETI
and D3 influencing
variables within the
typology from previous
research
Compile the
modifications into three
levels
D3-compatible
dimensions
D3-compatible categories
D3-compatible indicators
Value Tree Analysis (VTA)
within ETI
Amalgamation of the 3-level
VTA and 3-levels of ETI
(Borysiewicz et al., 2015)

18. D3-compatible energy trilemma evaluation tree
Dimension
Security &
Resilience
Environment
sustainability
Equity
D. Country
context
Security of demand
Land
Democratization
Employment
capacity on stand-
alone or off-grid
Interuptability of
demand response
use intensity Soil quality
Participation in
energy-decisions
Ownership of
energy assets
Job creation Capacity building
D3
energy
system
structure
Trilemma
Category Indicator

19. D3-compatible energy trilemma evaluation tree
Dimension
Security &
Resilience
Environment
sustainability
Equity
D. Country
context
Security of demand
Land
Democratization
Employment
capacity on stand-
alone or off-grid
Interuptability of
demand response
use intensity Soil quality
Participation in
energy-decisions
Ownership of
energy assets
Job creation Capacity building
D3
energy
system
structure
Trilemma
Category Indicator
Bulk
DER
T&D
T&D
DER
Bulk
Bulk
DER

20. Energy Security indicators
Overall Flexibility Supply Power plants overall flexibility supply (Share of power plant ancillary services in power system/overall
flexibility capacity)
Power grid overall flexibility supply (Interconnected transmission power capacity [HVDC/AC,
regional/country])
T&D operation capacity - active-reactive power and voltage control/overall power system flexibility
supply)
Security of supply Diversity of energy generation technologies
Diversity of resource mix for electricity generation
Improts (fuels, electricity, technologies)
Resource adequacy of supply
Resilience of electricity system Electricity storage (long-mid-short duration; High voltage utility storage and distributed storage)
System stability and recovery capacity
Security of demand
(demand-side response)
Sufficiency of prosumption
Independent operation capacity on a stand-alone or off-grid basis
Interuptability of demand response (Consumer group splitting, interuptable contracts)
Demand-side response offerings (load-shifting) in electricity, capacity and ancillary service markets
(i.e. through storage or a balanced autonomy through energy infrastructure)
Fossil fuels security
(oil and gas)
Synchronisation scaling up clean energy technologies with scaling back of fossil fuels
Strategic gas stocks
Strategic fuel stocks

21. Energy Equity
Accessibility
Share of households with access to a minimum level of (clean) electricity (connection to an electricity
grid/ a renewable stand-alone/mini-grid system
Share of households with access to clean cooking (reliance by fuel and technology type, including
natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), electricity and biogas or ICS
Share of households with access to clean transportation (primary reliance on modern technologies,
including Electric/Hydrogen transportation)
Share of households with sufficient capacity to deliver 'minimum energy services'
Affordability
Share of household income spent on electricity/energy services
Average electricity prices (residential/retail/wholesale electricity price)
Fair/Just
Household income group spent on energy use by corresponding fuel mix
Fair price (Difference between tariffs and their distribution over different income decile and
geographical spread)
Share of households [or population] connections to technology types (grid connections
[interconnected/mini/micro/stand alone], generation technologies, metering technologies)
Democratization
(transparency, participation, consumer
responsiveness, empowerment)
Ownership of energy components (generaion and storage) by community/utilities/private investors
Responses to public consultations of energy-related projects
Active public participation in energy-related policy-making (number of participants in energy market) -
CHECK WITH DEFINING FACTOR
Awareness raising campaigns on energy issues (per year, by issue type)
E-government on-line energy-related information availability

22. Environmental sustainability indicators
Atmosphere
(GHG emissions and air quality)
GHG emissions from energy production and use per capita
GHG emissions from energy production and use per GDP
Direct GHG emissions from energy production and use
Embedded GHG emissions from energy production and use
CH4 per capita
P.M. 2.5 mean annual exposure
PM 10 mean annual exposure
Water
(quality and use intensity)
Oil discharges into coastal waters
Contaminant discharges in liquid effluents from energy system
Ratio of direct water usage to lifetime power generation (per generation unit)
Land
(land-use intensity, soil quality, and
forestation)
Ratio of direct land usage to lifetime power generation (per generation unit)
Reference to available land in the country and energy needs
Soil area where acidification exceeds critical load
Rate of deforestation attributed to energy use
Solid waste
(generation and management)
Ratio of solid waste generation to units of energy produced
Reuseability/Recycleability
Biodiversity and ecological habitat Ratio of direct biodiversity impacts to energy use (per generation unit/sector)

23. How A compatible D3 Index can help
modelers in assessing uncertainties?
Energy System Optimization Models require decision making under
deep uncertainty.
One of the main challenges for analysts and decision makers:
Agreeing about the appropriate conceptual models that
describe the relationships among key driving forces that will
shape the long-term future (Yue, et al., 2018).
The index as a preliminary step for models helps
modelers determine:
(1) What is the information that we need to look at
(2) What are the measures that determine each of the
trilemma dimensions
(3) Accordingly, the models help understand the threshold
value and the weights of each indicator.

24. “Your future hasn't
been written yet. No
one’s has. Your future
is whatever you make
it. So, make it a good
one.” – Doc Brown, “Back To The Future”