The Nordics as a hub for green electricity and fuels Mr. Till ben Brahim, Energy Modelling Lab, Denmark 16–17th november 2023, Turin, Italy, etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, semi-annual meeting, november 2023, Politecnico di Torino Lingotto, Torino

1. THE NORDICS AS A HUB FOR GREEN
ELECTRICITY AND FUELS
Energy Modelling Lab
Till ben Brahim
Project submission: Winter 2022
Project partners: COWI, Brinckmann Group

2. • Hypothesis
• Model description
• Main model inputs
• Results
• Conclusions
• Lessons learned
AGENDA

3. Nordics can be competitive on the
global market for green energy
Reasoning
• Vast renewable energy potential,
especially wind and biomass
If true
• When and where to build out
required infrastructure capacities
HYPOTHESIS

4. M O D E L D E S C R I P T I O N

5. TIMES-NEU (Based on ON-TIMES)
• 56 time slices a year – period until 2050
• Myopic in 10-year steps
• 2,84% discount rate
• NO, DK, SE, DE, and PL: all sectors included – internal trade with
8 energy carriers
• Surrounding countries (light blue) – power trade with price profiles
to main model countries
• UK, Belgium, and Netherlands – also trade with 8 energy carriers
MODEL DESCRIPTION

6. M A I N M O D E L I N P U T

7. • National climate targets are respected
• Existing and projected carbon and energy taxes are included
• Stop for import of green fuels (except H2 and NH3) and biomass from 2040
• Exogenous green fuel supply and demand for UK, BE and NL
• Fuel prices for the global market, and landing prices for UK, BE, and NL
• Exogenous non-energy fossil fuels are faced out linearly from 2030 to 2050
• Exogenous nearshore wind capacity of 3 GW on Danish energy island in 2030
• Technology costs from Danish Technology Catalogues
IMPORTANT ASSUMPTIONS

8. WIND & SOLAR POTENTIALS
• In total 1,36 TW in 2050
• DE with highest PV potential in
2050
• PL with highest wind onshore
potential in 2050
• DK offshore potential ~50% of DE
• NO offshore like DE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600 2020
2050
2020
2050
2020
2050
2020
2050
2020
2050
2020
2050
2020
2050
DE DE,
island
DK DK,
island
NO PL SE
GW
PV
Onshore
Offshore

9. BIOMASS POTENTIALS
• Potential decreased from 2030 to
2050 by:
• SE – 15%
• PL – 5%
• NO – 24%
• DK – 25%
• DE – 32%
• Totals:
• 2030 – 2,6 EJ (12% of TPES)
• 2050 – 2,1 EJ
0 300 600 900 1200
DE
DK
NO
PL
SE
DE
DK
NO
PL
SE
2030
2050
TJ
Black liquor
Corn
Deep Litter
Firewood
Grass
Manure
Rapeseeds
Straw
Sugar Beet
Wood chips
Wood pellets

10. EXOGENOUS TRADE LIMITS
• Upper limits (not fixed)
• BE and NL net importers
• UK net importer except for H2
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800 2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
2030
2040
2050
Export Export Export Import
BE NL UK
PJ
MOE
MOB
H2
AMM

11. HYDROGEN EXPORT PRICES TO NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2030 2040 2050
EUR/MWh
Belgium
Netherlands
UK

12. R E S U LT S O F B A S E S C E N A R I O

13. G R E E N F U E L D E M A N D &
P R O D U C T I O N

14. TOTAL FINAL DEMAND FOR GREEN FUELS
Modelled demand for green fuels (bio- and electro) in the fully modelled countries (DK, SE, NO, DE, PL) – not including
UK, NL, and BE!)

15. HYDROGEN DEMAND AND PRODUCTION
Direct hydrogen demand in the extended model area. This includes
use in industry, transport and for e-fuel production. The demand is
endogenous decided by the model in DK, NO, SE, DE and PL while
it is exogenous added to the model for NL, BE and UK.
Expected hydrogen production in the model area. The production is
endogenous decided by the model in DK, NO, SE, DE and PL while it
is exogenous added to the model for NL, BE, and UK.
D E M A N D P R O D U C T I O N

16. E L E C T R I C I T Y A N D H 2 T R A D E

17. POWER TRADE IN 2050
• NO, net exporter of electricity mostly to SE, DK and DE
• SE, net importer mostly from NO, FI and LT.
• Main electricity consumption hub stays in DK, that becomes a
net importer of electricity, mostly from DE, NO, UK, and SE.
• The electricity flows to the energy islands where the
electrolyzers are built.

18. HYDROGEN TRADE IN 2050
• Chemical industry and steel industry in south SE as well as the
extensive BE and DE industries are the main hydrogen
consumption hubs.
• DE can produce two thirds of its own hydrogen, but still needs
to import from Denmark to cover its total consumption.
• SE and BE become net importers of hydrogen, mostly from
Denmark, and partially from Poland in the Swedish case.

19. SWEDEN'S TRADE WITH HYDROGEN

20. DENMARK’S TRADE WITH HYDROGEN

21. GERMANY’S TRADE WITH HYDROGEN

22. E L E C T R O LY Z E R A N D W I N D
C A PA C I T I E S

23. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GW
Sweden
Norway
Poland
DE EnergyIslands
Germany
Island 3+4
EnergyIsland2
EnergyIsland1
IslandBornholm
EastDenmark
WestDenmark
WIND OFFSHORE CAPACITY
North sea wind potential is fully utilized in the energy islands.
Norway and Denmark are close to their offshore potential.
Sweden only installs 10 GW out of 20 GW potential, model finds more optimal to import hydrogen

24. ELECTROLYZER CAPACITY
First movers in installing enough electrolyzer capacity dominate the market share in the short to medium term.
Without planned capacity, build-out describes a hockey stick curve.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GW
Sweden
Norway
Poland
DE EnergyIslands
Germany
Island 3+4
EnergyIsland2
EnergyIsland1
IslandBornholm
EastDenmark
WestDenmark

25. • Nordics can be a hub for some
green fuels, especially H2 shows
high potential
• Energy islands seem feasible with
modelled costs, but are recently
stalled due to more conservative
estimates
• Overall cheaper to produce H2
directly offshore and export it to
main demand hubs at the
expense of electricity exports.
CONCLUSIONS

26. • H2 demand projections tend to be very optimistic in
the short and medium term
• Buildout of H2 capacity follows more strategies,
rather than feasibilities
• Models with exogenous demand are blind to this
behavior
• We need to be careful with national strategies in
multi-national models, as they might contradict
and drive the model solution
• North sea is the cheapest place to produce H2 in
the model
• Complexity of fuel trade not fully captured in our
model
LESSONS
LEARNED

27. END
Thank you for your attention.

28. E N E R G Y P R I C E S

29. MARGINAL POWER PRICES
• Slightly higher on average prices in
2030 compared to 2050
• In 2030:
• DE and PL with highest prices
• SE and DK islands with lowest prices
• In 2050:
• Trend of 2030 flipped
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2030 2050
EUR2020
/
MWh
DE1
DE2
DE3
DE4
DE5
DEISL
DKE
DKISL1
DKISL2
DKISL3
DKISLBH
DKW
NO1
NO2
PL1
PL2
PL3
SE1
SE2
SE3
SE4

30. MARGINAL HYDROGEN PRICES
• Decrease in H2
production prices from
2030 to 2050
• No major differences
across regions
• Hydrogen prices in 2050
ranges from 72-74
€/MWh
• Cheapest production on
the energy islands
(North Sea) due to
higher wind resources
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2030 2050
H2
EUR2020
/
MWh
DE1
DE2
DE3
DE4
DE5
DEISL
DKE
DKISL1
DKISL2
DKISL3
DKISLBH
DKW
NO1
NO2
PL1
PL2
PL3
SE1
SE2
SE3
SE4