2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Slide
1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3
2. Campaign Interest & Engagement……………………………………….10
3. Views of the Candidates..……………………………………………….…..13
4. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…19
5. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……22
6. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...25
7. The Debates……………………………………………………………………….29
2
4. NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG
TRACK TRENDING DOWN; JOBS IS TOP ISSUE
As of September 27, 2012 Which of the following do you see as the most
important issue facing the country right now?
WRONG TRACK 56.5% PROBLEM %
Unemployment and jobs 43
The federal deficit 14
Health care 11
Gas prices 7
The situation in the
6
Middle East
Taxes 4
RIGHT DIRECTION 35.9% Immigration 3
Terrorism 3
Source: Bloomberg National Poll, September 21-24, 2012
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
4
5. AMERICANS SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THEIR
VIEW OF THE U.S. ECONOMY
What is your current view of the economy in the U.S.?
Hopeful because there are
33%
signs of improvement
Fearful because things are
21%
getting worse
Cautious because nothing is
45%
really happening
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Note: “Not sure” results are not shown. 5
Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, Sept 21-24, 2012
6. FOR VOTERS, IT’S STILL THE ECONOMY
ENERGY, TERRORISM, IMMIGRATION LESS IMPORTANT THAN IN 2008
In making your decision about who to vote for this fall, will the issue of [ITEM] be very important,
somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Economy 87% % of voters
87% saying each
is “Very
Jobs* 80%
83% +3 important”
to their vote
Health care 73%
74% +1
Education 73% -4
69% 2008
Budget deficit** 69% -1 2012
68%
Terrorism 72% -12
60%
Energy 77%
55% -22
Immigration 52%
41% -11
Based on registered voters. All 2008 figures from
6
August except * October 2008 and ** May 2008
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
7. SWING VOTERS SHARE SIMILARITIES WITH
ROMNEY AND OBAMA VOTERS
% of voters saying each is “Very important” to their vote % of swing voters who say each is “very important” to their vote
Romney Obama Swing
Diff
voters voters voters
% % %
Budget deficit 82 55 R+27 Budget deficit 63
Terrorism 68 55 R+13 Terrorism 57
Immigration 47 36 R+11 Immigration 39
Economy 93 83 R+10 Economy 85
Foreign policy 66 56 R+10 Foreign policy 45
Jobs 87 81 R+6 Jobs 74
Taxes 70 64 R+6 Taxes 57
Abortion 46 49 O+3 Abortion 34
Energy 51 59 O+8 Energy 54
Health care 67 82 O+15 Health care 65
Medicare 55 74 O+19 Medicare 61
Education 52 84 O+32 Education 74
7
Based on registered voters
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
8. MORE WOMEN RATE ISSUE OF ABORTION AS
VERY IMPORTANT
% of voters saying each is “Very important” to their vote
M-W
Total Men Women
Diff
% % %
Abortion 46 36 54 W+18
Health care 74 67 81 W+14
Education 69 64 74 W+10
Jobs 83 78 86 W+8
Medicare 65 62 67 W+5
Economy 87 85 89 W+4
Immigration 41 39 43 W+4
Terrorism 60 59 62 W+3
Taxes 66 66 66 --
Foreign policy 60 61 60 M+1
Budget deficit 68 70 67 M+3
Energy 55 57 53 M+4
8
Based on registered voters
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
9. MEDICARE A TOP ISSUE FOR OLDER VOTERS
% of voters saying each is “Very important” to their vote
Young-Old
18-49 50-64 65+
Diff
% % %
Medicare 55 69 83 -28
Terrorism 53 63 72 -19
Foreign policy 55 59 73 -18
Energy 52 55 64 -12
Immigration 37 41 47 -10
Health care 72 75 80 -8
Abortion 45 45 49 -4
Economy 86 89 90 -4
Jobs 81 84 84 -3
Budget deficit 68 66 70 -2
Education 72 65 69 +3
Taxes 66 69 63 +3
9
Based on registered voters
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
11. ENGAGEMENT DOWN FROM 2008,
PARTICULARLY AMONG YOUNG VOTERS
How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election…Quite a lot or only a little?
Diff
% given a lot of
thought to the election
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2012 -
2008
All voters 69% 56% 58% 71% 78% 70% -8
Republican 72 65 66 75 81 72 -9
Democrat 74 57 58 70 79 71 -8
Independent 63 46 51 68 77 66 -11
18-29 58 46 41 57 65 48 -17
30-49 74 56 57 71 78 70 -8
50-65 68 59 66 76 86 75 -11
65+ 70 61 64 73 77 75 -2
White 70 56 60 72 80 70 -10
Black 66 50 54 64 76 76 -
Based on registered voters. Figures from 11
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012 all years from September surveys
12. ALTHOUGH INTEREST IS DOWN, VOTER INTENT
IS HIGH Definitely plan to vote
Given a lot of thought to election
Following election news very closely
87% 84% 84%
78% 78%
78%
69% 71% 70%
56% 59%
47% 50%
46% 44%
29% 27%
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Based on registered voters. All figures are from
September except definitely plan to vote from 2004
12
and 2000, which are from October
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
14. AMERICANS APPROVE OF OBAMA’S OVERALL
JOB PERFORMANCE
Please tell me if you approve or
Overall Job Approval disapprove of the job that President
Obama is doing on this issue…
Approve Disapprove No opinion
NET NET
Issue APPROVE DISAPPROVE
Standing up for
58% 39%
49% the middle class
Taxes 51% 46%
45% Foreign policy 50% 45%
6% Medicare 50% 44%
The economy 48% 51%
The federal
budget and 40% 57%
Source: Gallup Poll, September 17 – 23 , 2012 spending
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept. 16-20, 2012 14
15. JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT
PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Obama Averages 45% Job Approval in August
Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election
Presidential Job Approval January March June October
2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ?
2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%
1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%
1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%
1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%
1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%
1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%
1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%
1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%
President’s in red lost re-election
15
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
16. ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW,
OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY
Barack Obama Favorable Rating Mitt Romney Favorable Rating
FAVORABLE 52.2% FAVORABLE 42.5%
UNFAVORABLE 43.4% UNFAVORABLE 49.4%
As of September 28, 2012
16
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
17. NO PREVIOUS CANDIDATE IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING CONVENTIONS Based on
registered
voters.
Sept 1988 Sept 1992 Sept 1996 Sept 2000 Sept 2004 Sept 2008 Sept 2012
59 62 63
52 54 53 55 Democratic
candidates
40 39 42 42
35 30 34 Favorable
Unfavorable
Dukakis Clinton Clinton Gore Kerry Obama Obama
58 61
53 51 54 Republican
49 46
41 43 45 50 candidates
36 37 35 Favorable
Unfavorable
GHWB GHWB Dole GWB GWB McCain Romney
17
Source: Pew Research Center. 1988-2000 data from Gallup September Surveys
18. CRITICISM OF ROMNEY’S CAMPAIGN GROWS;
SIX IN TEN RATE HIS EFFORTS NEGATIVELY
70%
Favorable 61%
60% 54% Unfavorable
50% 43%
40% 35% Was 49%
in July
30%
20%
10%
0%
Obama's handling of his campaign Romney's handling of his
campaign
Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the way [Barack Obama / Mitt
Romney] is running his presidential campaign?
18
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 19-23, 2012
20. OBAMA’S LEAD OVER ROMNEY GROWS TO
OVER FOUR POINTS
A Look Back
As of September 28, 2012 Four Years Ago Today
Sept 28, 2008 %
OBAMA 48.7% Obama 47.9
McCain 43.1
+4.2 Obama +4.8
Eight Years Ago Today
ROMNEY 44.5% Sept 28, 2004 %
Bush 49.3
Kerry 43.4
Bush +5.9
Source: Real Clear Politics
20
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
21. LIKELY VOTERS GIVE OBAMA THE EDGE ON
MOST ISSUES
Now I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to
them. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who will better handle this
issue – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?
Obama Romney
60%
52% 52%
50% 49% 48% 50%
50% 48% 48%
45% 46%
43% 43%
40%
30% R Tied O O O O
+5 +1 +4 +9 +9
20%
10%
0%
The federal budget Jobs The economy Taxes Medicare Foreign policy
and spending
Note: “Neither,” and “No opinion” results 21
are not shown.
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept 16-20, 2012
26. 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH
Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick up a
seat in ME, while losing a seat in NE.
Republicans need to win 6 Toss-Up seats to gain control of the Senate if they pick up a
seat in NE, while losing a seat in ME.
Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (6) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (1) Likely Rep (1)
ME* (Open) – HI (Open) – MT (Tester) – AZ (Open) – NE (Open) –
Republican Democrat Democrat Republican Democrat
PA (Casey) – FL (Nelson) – VA (Open) –
Democrat Democrat Democrat
MI (Stabenow) – OH (Brown) – WI (Open) –
Democrat Democrat Democrat
CT (Open) – ND (Open) -
Democrat Democrat
NM (Open) – MA (Brown) –
Democrat Republican
MO (McCaskill) – NV (Heller) –
Democrat Republican
IN (Open) –
Republican
*Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if 26
he wins the open Maine seat
Source: Roll Call, as of September 27, 2012
27. LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES
(9/15-9/25)
(8/20 – 9/19) (5/3-7/11) King: 44%
(9/11-9/23)
Rehberg : 46% Berg: 49% Summers: 32%
Baldwin: 49%
Tester: 44% Heitkamp: 44% Dill: 14%
Thompson: 44%
(8/22-9/26)
ND Murphy: 44% ME
OR MT
MN McMahon: 41% NH
WI MA
(8/22-9/11) CT Warren:
McCaskill: 48% 47%
NV
Akin: 43%
CO Brown:
Heller: 43% MO KY
VA 46%
(9/13-9/24)
Berkley: 42% NC
(9/18-9/20) AZ NM
GA
Kaine: 49%
Allen: 44%
Flake: 46% (9/11-9/18)
Carmona: 42%
(9/7-9/25)
27
Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 27, 2012)
28. 2012 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH
89 Freshman Republicans
2012: 9 Freshman Democrats
If the election for CONGRESS were being
held today, and you had to make a choice,
Retirements would you be voting for the Republican
Democrats: 23 Republicans: 18 candidate or the Democratic candidate, in
your congressional district?
Democratic Toss Up Races Republican Toss Up Races
1. GA-12 (Barrow) 1. CA-7 (Lungren) AMONG REGISTERED LIKELY VOTERS
2. IL-12 (Open-Costello) 2. CA-26 (Open – Gallegly)
3. MA-6 (Tierney) 3. CA-52 (Bilbray)
Republican
4. NC-7 (McIntyre) 4. CO-3 (Tipton) candidate
5. NY-21 (Owens) 5. CO-6 (Coffman)
6.
7.
NY-27 (Hochul)
PA-12 (Critz)
6. IL-11 (Biggert)
7. MN-8 (Cravaack) 45% 46% Democratic
8. RI-1 (Cicilline) 8. NV-3 (Heck) candidate
9. UT-4 (Matheson) 9. NH-2 (Bass)
10.NY-18 (Hayworth)
11.NY-19 (Gibson)
9% Undecided
(vol.)
12.NY-24 (Buerkle)
13.OH-16 (Merged – Renacci)
14.TX-23 (Canseco)
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept 16-20, 2012
28
Source: Roll Call, as of September 27, 2012
30. NEARLY HALF OF LIKELY VOTERS PLAN TO
WATCH ALL OF THE DEBATES
Now thinking about the Presidential debates and the Vice Presidential debate…
As you may know, in October Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will participate in three
debates while Joe Biden and Paul Ryan will participate in one debate.
Do you plan to watch all, some, a little, or none of these debates?
60%
49%
50%
40% 34%
30%
20%
10% 7% 8%
2%
0%
All Some A little None Unsure
30
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, September 16-20, 2012
31. FEW LIKELY VOTERS SAY DEBATES ARE
EXTREMELY OR VERY IMPORTANT TO THEIR VOTE
No matter how much of these debates that you plan to watch…
How important will these debates be to your decision on who to vote for President? Would
you say that these debates will be extremely, very, somewhat, a little or not at all important
in your voting decision for President?
Extremely important 11%
23%
Very important 12%
Somewhat important 24%
A little important 14%
Not at all important 38%
Unsure 1%
31
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, September 16-20, 2012
32. UPCOMING DEBATE SCHEDULE
Date Debate Focus
Wed, Oct. 3 First Presidential Debate Domestic policy
Foreign and
Thurs, Oct 11 Vice Presidential Debate
domestic topics
Town meeting
Tues, Oct 16 Second Presidential Debate
format
Mon, Oct 22 Third Presidential Debate Foreign policy
32
Source: Commission on Presidential Debates
33. GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and
quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message
development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor
critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse
audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to
uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging
and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or
David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)
33
