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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

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GPG analysis of publicly-released polls with an eye toward the upcoming election.

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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

  1. 1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis November 7, 2016
  2. 2. W H AT ’S AT S TA K E Republicans Democrats 247 186** +61 - All 435 seats are contested. Democrats need to win 30 seats from the Republicans to gain control of the House. House: Senate: Republicans Democrats 54 46* +8 - 34 seats are contested. Democrats need to win ~5 seats from the Republicans to gain control of the Senate. Presidency: Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump seek to become the 45th president of the United States. Governor: 12 governorships are contested. * 44 Democrats + 2 Independents ** 2 seats are vacant (HI-1, PA-2) ~ if Clinton wins, Democrats only need to win 4 seats PAGE 2
  3. 3. K E Y M E T R IC S H E A DI NG I N T O E L E CT ION D AY Source: HuffPost Pollster PAGE 3 Ø Clinton’s favorable rating is better than Trump’s. § While both candidates are historically unpopular with a majority of Americans, Clinton is marginally more popular than Trump. Ø Trump supporters are more enthusiastic. § Trump's biggest strength is his overwhelming support from disaffected white voters -- particularly men, and especially those without college degrees -- and his supporters appear to be more enthusiastic than Clinton’s. Ø Early voting trends favor Clinton. § This year, 30 to 40 percent of votes are expected to come from early voting, and so far, a greater number of Democrats than Republicans have already voted in key battleground states. Ø Americans overwhelmingly believe Clinton will win. § A majority of voters in recent polls believe Clinton will be the winner of the race. Questions that test voters’ perceptions of who will win are said to be more indicative of the actual winner than horserace polls asking who they will vote for. § All of the available forecast models give Clinton a very high probability of winning the election. Ø It all comes down to who shows up to vote. § Will any upswing in Hispanic turnout be offset by a downturn in African-American turnout? Do Republican voters come out in force on election day offsetting Democrat’s early vote success?
  4. 4. S T A T E O F T H E N A T I O N
  5. 5. PAGE  5 M O S T D I S SAT ISF IED W I T H D I R E CTI ON O F C O U NT RY Source: HuffPost Pollster Average Direction of the Country Satisfaction With the Way Things Are Going in the U.S. Source: Gallup Poll, October 5-9, 2016 Satisfied Dissatisfied 28% 70% Right Direction Wrong Track 30% 65%
  6. 6. PAGE  6 M O S T V O T ERS C O N TEN T W I T H P E R S ONAL F I N A NCI AL S I T UAT ION, B U T N O T H A P P Y W I T H U . S . E C O N OMIC S Y S TE M O R P O L I T ICA L S Y S T EM I N WA S H I NGTO N Source: CNBC Poll, October 21-24, 2016 Your personal financial situation Happy Satisfied Neutral Dissatisfied Angry 18% 38% 20% 18% 5% The economic and financial system in the United States Happy Satisfied Neutral Dissatisfied Angry 5% 14% 20% 44% 14% The political system in Washington Happy Satisfied Neutral Dissatisfied Angry 2% 7% 10% 50% 29%
  7. 7. PAGE  7 E C O N OMI C I N D I CATORS : U N E M PLOY MENT R AT E , J O B S A D D ED, A N D C O N S UM ER C O N FI DEN CE Source: Bureaus of Labor Statistics, Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index August 101.8 September 103.5 October 98.6 73rd consecutive month of job gains in October, while unemployment rate ticked down to 4.9%
  8. 8. PAGE 8 W H I L E O B A M A’S J O B A P P R OVAL H A S G O N E U P O V E R PA S T Y E A R, A M A J O RIT Y W O U LD N O T E L E C T H I M T O A T H I R D T E R M I F H E WA S A L L O WED T O R U N Source: HuffPost Pollster Average Approve 52.1% Disapprove 45.5% If President Barack Obama was allowed to run for a third term, would you most likely vote to re- elect him, or vote for someone else? Definitely / Probably re-elect Obama 45% Definitely / Probably vote for someone else 52% Source: AP-GfK Poll, October 20-24, 2016
  9. 9. PAGE 9 A M A J O RIT Y O F V O T E RS S AY E L E CTI ON H A S M A D E T H E M L E S S P R O U D O F A M E R ICA Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, November 3-5, 2016 Has this presidential election made you…? 28% 62% 7% No  difference Less  proud  of  America More  proud  of  America 2016 45% 12% 34% 2012
  10. 10. B A T T L E F O R T H E P R E S I D E N C Y
  11. 11. M O S T F I N AL N AT IO NAL P O L L S P U T C L I NTO N O N T O P Source: HuffPost Pollster PAGE 11 LikeCandidate DislikeOpponent DislikeOpponent LikeCandidate Most Recent Polls Poll Date Clinton Trump Spread Poll Average 46.1% 41.5% Clinton +4.6 Bloomberg Nov 4 – Nov 6 44 41 Clinton +3 IBD/TIPP Nov 3 – Nov 6 41 43 Trump +2 Fox News Nov 3 – Nov 6 48 44 Clinton +4 CBS Nov 2 – Nov 6 45 41 Clinton +4 NBC/Survey Monkey Oct 31 – Nov 6 47 41 Clinton +6 Politico/Morning Consult Nov 4 – Nov 5 45 42 Clinton +3 NBC/WSJ Nov 3 – Nov 5 44 40 Clinton +4 ABC/Post Nov 2 – Nov 5 47 43 Clinton +4 McClatchy/Marist Nov 1 – Nov 3 44 43 Clinton +1 Results taken from four-way race
  12. 12. A N D P O L L I NG AV E R AGE H A S C L I NTO N O N T O P N AT I ONWI DE Source: HuffPost Pollster Average as of 11/7 PAGE 12 Why Voters Support Candidate 55% 43%42% 51% Clinton Trump SupportClinton OpposeTrump OpposeClinton SupportTrump Source: ABC News/WashPost Poll Clinton 47.5% Trump 42.3% Although his numbers have declined, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is still polling at a level of support higher than third parties in the previous four election cycles. Two-way Race Four-way Race Clinton 46.1% Trump 41.5% Johnson 5.3% Other (Stein) 3.6%
  13. 13. PAGE 13 E L E C TOR AL M A P FAV ORAB LE T O WAR D C L I N TON Likely/Leans Clinton (272) Likely/Leans Trump (186) Toss-Up (80) CT 7 O R A K K Y N M M N C O G A N C N H 3 12 7 55 6 4 3 6 11 5 9 3 3 5 2 NH 4 VT 3 3 4 38 DC 3 MD 10 DE 3 NJ 14 RI 4 MA 1129 6 7 10 6 10 6 8 6 9 16 29 9 15 13 11 20 11 10 16 18 20 8 5 ME2 (1) ME1 (1) Maine allocates it’s electoral votes proportionally, 2 to overall winner of state and 1 each to winner of congressional district
  14. 14. S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S O R K Y N M M N C O G A N H FL VA OH PAIA AZ NV (10/26 – 11/1) Trump: 46.3% Clinton: 42.3% (11/1– 11/4) Trump: 44.3% Clinton: 41.3% (10/28 – 11/6) Clinton: 43.3% Trump: 42.7% (10/29 – 11/4) Clinton: 46.0% Trump: 43.6% Clinton: 47.3% Trump: 42.3% (10/27 – 11/6) Clinton: 47.0% Trump: 46.0% (10/27 – 11/6) (10/27 – 11/5) Trump: 45.8% Clinton: 42.3% Trump: 46.5% Clinton: 45.0% (10/27 – 11/5) NC Trump: 47.5% Clinton: 45.8% (10/26 – 11/6) Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/7/16 PAGE 14 Averages are for Four-way Race
  15. 15. PAGE 15 States Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Arizona 42.3% 46.3% 0 11 Florida 47.0% 46.0% 29 0 Iowa 41.3% 44.3% 0 6 Nevada 45.0% 46.5% 0 6 New Hampshire 43.3% 42.7% 4 0 North Carolina 45.8% 47.5% 0 15 Pennsylvania 46.0% 43.6% 20 0 Ohio 42.3% 45.8% 0 18 Virginia 47.3% 42.3% 13 0 Swing State Voters 66 56 Leaning/Likely State Voters 235 181* Total Overall Votes 301 237 RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORALVOTES A LT H OUG H T R U MP L E A DS I N F I V E O F N I N E B AT TL EGR OUND S TAT ES, I T W O U L D N O T B E E N O U G H *Indications point to Trump winning 1 Electoral vote from Maine which awards its electoral votes proportionally
  16. 16. PAGE 16 H O W K E Y S TAT ES H AV E M O V ED O V E R T H E L A S T W E E K Oct 31st Nov 7th Arizona Clinton +0.6 Trump +4.0 Colorado Clinton +4.0 Clinton +2.9 Florida Trump +0.5 Clinton +1.0 Georgia Trump +3.6 Trump +4.6 Iowa Trump +1.4 Trump +3.0 Michigan Clinton +6.3 Clinton +4.7 Missouri Trump +8.0 Trump +9.5 Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/7/16 Oct 31st Nov 7th Nevada Clinton +1.5 Trump +1.5 New Hampshire Clinton +5.6 Clinton +0.6 North Carolina Clinton +3.0 Trump +1.7 Ohio Trump +2.0 Trump +3.5 Pennsylvania Clinton +6.0 Clinton +2.4 Virginia Clinton +6.6 Clinton +5.0 Wisconsin Clinton +5.7 Clinton +5.5
  17. 17. PAGE 17 H O W T R U M P C O U LD W I N C A P T U R E F L O R I D A , I O WA , O H I O , N E W H A M P S H I R E , N E VA D A A N D M E - 2 Clinton (268) Trump (270) CT 7 O R A K K Y N M M N C O G A N C N H 3 12 7 55 6 4 3 6 11 5 9 3 3 5 2 NH 4 VT 3 3 4 38 DC 3 MD 10 DE 3 NJ 14 RI 4 MA 1129 6 7 10 6 10 6 8 6 9 16 29 9 15 13 11 20 11 10 16 18 20 8 5 ME2 (1) ME1 (1) If Trump does not pick up 1 electoral vote from Maine, we’d be looking at a 269-269 tie in this scenario Maine allocates it’s electoral votes proportionally, 2 to overall winner of state and 1 each to winner of congressional district
  18. 18. A N D T H O S E O T H E R R A C E S : S E N A T E , H O U S E
  19. 19. Democrats: 46* Republicans: 54 *Two independents caucus with Democrats PAGE 19 2 0 1 6 S E N ATE: P R E- ELE CTI ON – R A C E S I N P L AY K Y G A N C
  20. 20. Source: Washington Post “The Fix” PAGE 20 2 0 1 6 S E N ATE O U T L OOK The Senate map is in favor of Democrats in the 2016 cycle. They are defending only 10 seats while Republicans have two dozen of their own seats to hold. In addition, seven of those 24 Republican seats are in states that President Obama won not once but twice: Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Below are the top 10 Senate races most likely to flip parties. No. 1 is most likely to flip parties and so on. 1. Kirk (IL-R) 2. Johnson (WI-R) 3. Toomey (PA-R) 4. Ayotte (NH-R) 5. Reid (NV-D) 6. Blunt (MO-R) 7. Coats (IN-R) 8. Burr (NC-R) 9. Rubio (FL-R) 10. McCain (AZ-R)
  21. 21. S E L E CT S E N ATE P O L L IN G AV E RA GES O R K Y N M M N C O G A N H AZ FL OH PA WI NV (10/26 – 11/1) Feingold: 47.0% Johnson: 44.3% (10/29 – 11/4) McGinty: 45.0% Toomey: 43.0% Rubio: 49.0% Murphy: 45.3% (10/27 – 11/6) (10/27 – 11/5) Portman: 53.8% Strickland: 35.5% Cortez Masto: 46.7% Heck: 46.3% (10/27 – 11/5) McCain: 49.5% Kirkpatrick: 39.3% (10/26 – 11/1) NC Burr: 46.3% Ross: 45.3% (10/26 – 11/6) Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/7/16 PAGE 21 MO (10/28 – 11/6) Ayotte: 47.1% Hassan: 45.6%Blunt: 46.8% Kander: 45.5% (10/24 – 11/5) IN Young: 42.7% Bayh: 42.0% (10/27 – 11/3)
  22. 22. PAGE 22 STATE DEM REP DEM REP Arizona Kirkpatrick:39.5% McCain (i):49.5% HOLD Florida Murphy:45.3% Rubio (i):49.0% HOLD Illinois Duckworth:48.0% Kirk (i):34.7% PICKUP Indiana Bayh:42.0% Young:42.7% HOLD Missouri Kander:45.5% Blunt(i):46.8% HOLD Nevada Cortez Masto:46.7% Heck:46.3% HOLD New Hampshire Hassan:45.6% Ayotte (i):47.1% HOLD North Carolina Ross:44.6% Burr (i):46.8% HOLD Pennsylvania McGinty:45.0% Toomey (i):43.0% PICKUP Ohio Strickland:35.5% Portman (i):53.8% HOLD Wisconsin Feingold:47.0% Johnson(i):44.3% PICKUP Toss-Up /LeaningRaces 4 7 Solid /Likely Races 9 14 NotUp For Election 36 30 Total Senate Make-up 49 51 RCP POLL AVERAGE S E N ATE C O N T ROL C O U LD G O E I T H E R WAY A S W E H E A D I N T O E L E C TI ON D AY
  23. 23. Source: Gallup Poll, October 27-28, 2016 PAGE 23 C O N G RES SIO NAL B A L L OT I S C L O S E, A LT H OUGH M O R E V O T E RS W O U L D P R E F ER A G O P C O N G R ESS I F H I L L A RY E L E CTE D What is your preference for the outcome of Tuesday’s congressional elections -- (ROTATE:) a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats? 44% 47% 9% Republican candidate Democratic candidate Not sure Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, November 3-5, 2016 If Hillary Clinton is elected president, which party would you prefer to have in control of Congress? 42% 52% Democrats Republicans
  24. 24. Source: Cook Political Report, as of November 7, 2016 PAGE 24 H O U S E R A C E R AT ING S The Cook Political Report counts just 37 seats out of 435 as competitive. Of the 37 competitive seats, 30 are held by Republicans and seven are held by Democrats. That means that if Democrats swept every single competitive seat, they would win the majority. Chances of this happening though, are highly unlikely. Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat Italicized name denotes Freshman member
  25. 25. E A R L Y V O T I N G
  26. 26. PAGE 26 E A R LY V O T I NG In 2012, a quarter of the votes cast were cast by early ballot. It is anticipatedthat nearly a third of votes cast in2016 will be before electionday. More than 30 millionvotes have been cast already across 38states with early voting. So far, about 7.4 million registered Democrats and about 6.4 million Republicans have votedearly. Early vote totals in Florida, 2008 & 2016 Early vote totals in Nevada, 2008 & 2016 Early vote totals in North Carolina, 2008 & 2016 Source: CNN/Catalist, as of 11/3
  27. 27. PAGE 27 C L I N TON H A S T H E E D G E A M O N G T H O SE A L R E AD Y V O T ED Clinton has held an advantage among early voters throughout most of the past two weeks, suggestingthat shehas banked a significant amount of votes among a group that makes up one-thirdof the likely voter electorate. 39% 55% Trump Clinton 45% 43% Trump Clinton Already voted Voting on election day Source: ABC News/WashPost Poll
  28. 28. P R E D I C T I O N S
  29. 29. PAGE 29 W H O V O T E RS T H I NK W I L L W I N T H E E L E C TI ON 57% 55% 57% 68% 74% 32% 31% 31% 27% 25% Fox News CBS News ABC/WashPost CNN-ORC AP-GfK Clinton Trump
  30. 30. PAGE 30 W H AT T H E P U N D ITS P R E DI CT F O R T H E P R E SI DEN CY & S E N ATE
  31. 31. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Katie Cissel Greenway (katie@gpg.com) Chris Gallup (cgallup@gpg.com)

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