Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

GPG’s Initial Post Election Analysis

587 views

Published on

GPG provides initial insights on what happened in the 2016 election and why.

Published in: News & Politics
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

GPG’s Initial Post Election Analysis

  1. 1. Election 2016 Initial Post-Election Analysis November 9, 2016
  2. 2. PAGE  2 E L E C TI ON O V E R VIE W • Online Landscape • Landscape: Lead-Up To The Election • Presidential Results: What happened? • Presidential Results: How did it happen? • Congressional Results: What happened? • Gubernatorial and Ballot Measure Results: What happened? • Looking Ahead: On the Issues
  3. 3. PAGE  3 I N I T I AL H E A DL INE S • Trump’s win represents astunning upset, going against the vast majority of public polling predictions and every major political forecast. • Clinton will likely winthe national popular vote. This will be the fifthtimeit has happened in presidential history. • Clinton was unable to recreatethe Obama voter coalition. • She fell significantly short of expectations across a range of demographic groups that helped elect Barack Obama in 2008 & 2012, indicating the party base was not as energized by Clinton than by Obama. • She saw key losses in several rust belt states (OH, PA, WI) usually carried by Democrats. Source: Cook Political Report, NPR, The Fix
  4. 4. PAGE  4 I N I T I AL H E A DL INE S • Trump overwhelmingly wonwhites without college degrees, while maintainingthe support of white college graduates. • In the end, GOP voters lined up behind Trump. • Trump did well among voters who really didn’t likehim. Voters embracedTrump despite large misgivings about his personality and policies. Source: Cook Political Report, NPR, The Fix
  5. 5. O N L I N E L A N D S C A P E
  6. 6. PAGE 6 T R U M P D O M IN ATED T H E O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ON L E A D I NG U P T O T H E E L E C TI ON • Three months ahead of the election, Donald Trump had significantly more online mentions than Hillary Clinton. • 14 days ahead of election day, there were slightly more Trump mentions online than Clinton mentions. Despite the FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress on Hillary Clinton’s e-mails, Trump remained the most talked about candidate ahead of election day. Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016
  7. 7. PAGE 7 T R U M P S E N TI MEN T M O R E P O S I TIV E P R I O R T O T H E E L E C TIO N • Trump has had more positive sentiment than Hillary Clinton in online mentions of him during the the last three months and the last 14 days of the campaign. Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016
  8. 8. PAGE 8 3 0 , 0 0 0 T W E ET S I N A M I N U T E AT 3 A M Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016
  9. 9. P O P U LA R T O P ICS T H E M O R N IN G A F T ER • P o p u l a r t o p i c s f r o m 9 : 1 5 A M - 1 0 : 1 5 A M E T t h e d a y a f t e r e l e c t i o n d a y c a p t u r e s t h e e l a t i o n a n d d i s a p p o i n t m e n t o f t h e e l e c t o r a t e . PAGE 9Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016
  10. 10. L A N D S C A P E : L E A D U P T O T H E E L E C T I O N
  11. 11. PAGE 11 V O T E RS W E R E L O O K ING F O R C H A N GE Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, November 3-5, 2016 43% 54% Someone who will bring a steady approach to the way government operates even if it means fewer changes to how things are now Someone who will bring major changes to the way government operates even if it is not possible to predict what the changes may be In thinking about the next president that we’ll be electing, which of the following two statements comes closer to your point of view?
  12. 12. PAGE 12 A N D T R U M P WA S V I E W ED A S A C H A N GE A G E N T; T E L LS I T L I K E I T I S Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, October 14-17, 2016 Clinton 24% Trump 63% Notsure 14% Source: CBS News Poll, October 12-16, 2016 Trump Clinton Yes, says what he / she believes 59% 34% No, says what people want to hear 37% 64% Would change the way Washington does business Do you think [Hillary Clinton / Donald Trump] says what [he/she] believes most of the time, or does he say what [he/she] thinks people want to hear?
  13. 13. PAGE 13 M O S T N AT ION AL P O L LS & M O D E LS S AW A C L I N TO N V I C TORY Source: HuffPost Pollster, The Upshot CLINTON TRUMP Clinton led in the head to head match-up from the very start of the campaign.
  14. 14. P R E S I D E N T I A L R E S U L T S : W H A T H A P P E N E D ?
  15. 15. PAGE 15 2 0 1 6 E L E C TI ON R E S U LTS ( S O FA R ) O R A K K Y N M M N C O G A N H 18 3 29 20 3 12 7 55 6 4 3 6 11 5 9 3 3 5 3 4 38 6 7 10 6 10 6 8 6 9 16 29 9 15 13 11 20 11 10 16 8 5 RI 4 NJ 15 CT 7 DE 3 MD 10 DC 3 MA 12 Clinton 228 Trump 290 Party change from ‘12 VT 3 NH 4 1 Not yet decided (MI & NH)
  16. 16. PAGE 16 C L I N TON A P P EA RS P O I S ED T O W I N T H E N AT I O NAL P O P UL AR V O T E Source Washington Post, History Channel Clinton 59,740,000 47.7% Trump 59,520,000 47.5% • Only 4 times in U.S. history has a candidate won the presidency without winning the popular vote: (2000 Bush, 1888 Harrison, 1876 Hayes, 1824 Quincy Adams) • It’s occurred twice in the past 16 years
  17. 17. PAGE  17 T H E E L E C TO RAL M A P • Trump pickedup 5 states from Obamain 2012 (Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa) (6 if Michiganis called). A littlehistory… • Trump pickedup 1 electoral voteout of Maine (ME-2), thefirst timea Republican has won anythingout of the northeast in sixteenyears. • Trump has won the most electoral votes for a Republican sinceReagan in 1984. • This is the first timesince1984 that a Republicanpresidential candidatehas won Michigan(if called), WisconsinandPennsylvaniacombined.
  18. 18. PAGE 18 A R E C A P O F 2 0 1 2 E L E C T ION O R A K K Y N M M N C O G A N H 18 4 29 20 3 12 7 55 6 4 3 6 11 5 9 3 3 5 3 4 38 6 7 10 6 10 6 8 6 9 16 29 9 15 13 11 20 11 10 16 8 5 VT 3 RI 4 NJ 15 CT 7 DE 3 MD 10 DC 3 MA 12 NH 4 Obama 332 Romney 206 Party change from ‘08
  19. 19. PAGE 19 A R E C A P O F 2 0 0 8 E L E C T ION O R A K K Y N M M N C O G A 20 4 31 21 3 11 7 55 5 4 3 5 10 5 9 3 3 4 3 4 38 6 7 10 7 11 6 9 6 9 15 27 8 15 13 11 21 11 10 17 8 5 VT 3 RI 4 NJ 15 CT 7 DE 3 MD 10 DC 3 MA 12 NH 4 1 Obama 365 McCain 173
  20. 20. P R E S I D E N T I A L R E S U L T S : H O W D I D I T H A P P E N ?
  21. 21. PAGE  21 T U R N OUT WA S D O W N • 55.6% of eligible voters voted(initial estimate) • Lowest turnout since 2000 (54.2%), theother popular vote/electoral collegesplit year. • Trump won with 59.4 millionvotes. Mitt Romney received 60.9millionvotes and lost. • 18 millionfewer voters than in 2012.
  22. 22. PAGE  22 L A R G ES T R E C ORD ED G E N DE R G A P Source: Exit Polls 2004 2008 2012 2016 Women +3 D +13 D +11 D +12 D Men +11 R +1 D +7 R +12 R Gender Gap 14-points 12-points 18-points 24-points
  23. 23. PAGE  23 W H I T E V O T E H A S D R O P PED S I N C E 2 0 0 4 , B U T I N T H E E N D I T D I D N ’ T M ATT ER Source: Exit Polls % of Electorate 2004 2008 2012 2016 White 77% 74% 72% 70% Black 12% 13% 13% 12% Hispanic/Latino 8% 8% 10% 11% Spread 2004 2008 2012 2016 White +17R +12R +20R +21R Black +77D +91D +87D +80D Hispanic/Latino +9D +36D +44D +36D • Hispanic vote is a growing part of the electorate but they didn’t turn out for Clinton like they did for Obama in 2012 • African American vote slightly down, but more so in key states like North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania
  24. 24. PAGE  24 T R U M P O V E RWHE LMI NGLY W O N L E S S E D U CAT ED W H I T ES Source: Exit Polls Vote by Education and Race Clinton Trump Whitecollege-grad women (20%) 51% 45% +6D Whitenon-college women (17%) 34% 62% +28R Whitecollege-grad men (17%) 39% 54% +15R Whitenon-college men (17%) 23% 72% +49R
  25. 25. PAGE  25 M I L L E NNIA L T U RN OUT M AT CHE D 2 0 1 2 , B U T F E L L S H O RT O F O B A M A’ S N U M BER S Source: Exit Polls % of Electorate 2004 2008 2012 2016 18-29 17 18 19 19 30-44 29 29 27 25 45-64 30 37 38 40 65+ 24 16 16 15 Spread 2004 2008 2012 2016 18-29 +9D +34D +23D +18D 30-44 +7R +6D +7D +8D 45-64 +3R +1D +4R +9R 65+ +8R +8R +12R +8R The decrease in Millennial support for Clinton may be due to the increase in their support for third party candidate Gary Johnson Millennial turnout was at the same level as previous elections – However, their support for the Democratic ticket was lower
  26. 26. PAGE  26 E C O N OMY V I E W ED A S M O S T I M P ORTA NT; T R UM P B E T TER A B L E T O H A N D LE I T Source: Exit Polls Most Important Issue Clinton Trump Margin The Economy 52% 52% 42% +10 D Terrorism 18% 39% 57% +18 R Foreign Policy 13% 60% 34% +26 D Immigration 13% 32% 64% +32 R Trump was viewed as better able to handle the economy, 49% to 46%
  27. 27. PAGE  27 C L I N TON W I N S O N N E A R LY A L L T R A I TS E X C E PT T H E O N E T H AT M AT T ERE D T H E M O S T Source: Exit Polls Can bring change 39% Spread +69R Total Right experience Cares about people like me +82D Good judgment 21% 20% 15% +40D +23D
  28. 28. PAGE  28 T R U M P W I N S V O T E RS W H O A R E A N G R Y A N D D I S S ATI SFI ED W I T H T H E F E D E R AL G O V ERN MENT 5% 24% 46% 23% Enthusiastic Satisfied Dissatisfied Angry Clinton Trump 78% 20% 75% 20% 45% 49% 18% 77% Source: Exit Polls
  29. 29. PAGE  29 T R U M P P I C K ED U P M O R E L AT E- DEC IDE RS When did you finally decidefor whom to votein the presidential election? % Spread Last few days 8 +2 R Last week 6 +12 R In October 12 +14 R In September 13 +4 R Before September 60 +7 D Source: Exit Polls
  30. 30. PAGE 30 I F T H E Y D I D N’ T L I K E E I T H ER C A N DID ATE, T H E Y V O T ED F O R T R U M P Among voters who view both Clinton and Trump unfavorably, Trump won nearly half of their vote. 29% 49% ClintonTrump
  31. 31. C O N G R E S S I O N A L R E S U L T S : W H A T H A P P E N E D ?
  32. 32. Democrats: 46* Republicans: 54 *Two independents caucus with Democrats PAGE 32 2 0 1 6 S E N ATE: P R E- ELE CTI ON – R A C E S I N P L AY K Y G A 2016 map favored the Democrats
  33. 33. S E N ATE P O S T-E LEC TIO N: D E M O CRATS P I C K U P T W O S E AT S A S R E P U BL ICA NS R E TAI N C O N TR OL O R K Y N M M N C O G A N H FL PA WI NV Johnson: 50.2% Feingold: 46.8% Toomey: 48.9% McGinty: 47.2% Rubio: 52.1% Murphy: 44.2% Cortez Masto: 47.1% Heck: 44.7% NC Burr: 51.1% Ross: 45.3% Source: CNN PAGE 33 MO Hassan: 48.0% Ayotte: 47.9% Blunt: 49.4% Kander: 46.2% IN Young: 52.2% Bayh: 42.0% IL Duckworth: 54.4% Kirk: 40.2% Democrats: 48 Republicans: 51 (Louisiana votes in a run-off election)
  34. 34. PAGE  34 H O U S E R E S U LTS: R E P UB LIC ANS S U F F ERE D F E W L O S S ES Source: CNN Democrats Republicans Pre-Election 188 247 Gains / Losses +5 -9 Results* 193 238 *4 Seats Still Undecided • 43 retirements heading into election (25 R, 18 D) • 7 incumbents lost (6 R, 1 D)
  35. 35. S T A T E R E S U L T S : W H A T H A P P E N E D ?
  36. 36. Democrats: 18 Republicans: 31 Independents: 1 PAGE 36 2 0 1 6 G O V E RNO RSHI PS: P R E -EL ECTI ON – R A C E S I N P L AY K Y G A
  37. 37. PAGE 37 2 0 1 6 G O V E RNO RSHI PS: P O S T-E LEC TION K Y G A Democrats: 16 Republicans: 33 Independents: 1 Republicans: +2
  38. 38. PAGE 38 B A L L O T M E A SURE S 2 0 1 6 : ¨ Marijuana - Medical Marijuana: • Arkansas – Pass • Florida – Pass • Montana – Pass • North Dakota – Pass - Recreational Marijuana • Arizona – Fail • California – Pass • Massachusetts – Pass • Maine – To Be Determined • Nevada – Pass ¨ Minimum Wage - Increase Minimum Wage • Arizona – Pass • Colorado – Pass • Maine – Pass • Washington – Pass - Decrease Minimum Wage for those under 18 • South Dakota – Fail ¨ Gun Control - Increase Background Checks • California – Pass • Maine – Fail • Nevada – Pass • Washington – Pass
  39. 39. PAGE 39 B A L L O T M E A SURE S 2 0 1 6 : ¨ Education - Alaska: Funding Postsecondary Student Loans – Fail - California:Modernizing K-12,Charter, and Vocational Schools – Pass - Georgia:State Intervention in Failing Schools – Fail - Massachusetts: Funding New Charter Schools – Fail - Oklahoma:State Funding for Public Schools – Fail - Oregon: DropoutPrevention and Career Readiness Programs in High Schools – Pass ¨ Healthcare - California:Fee on Hospitals to Fund Coverage of Uninsured Patients – Pass - California:Drug Price Standards – Fail - Colorado:Assisted Suicide– Pass - Colorado:Creation of Universal Healthcare System through taxes – Fail - Nevada:Sales Tax Exemption of some Medical Equipment– Pass ¨ Death Penalty - California:Repealing the Death Penalty – Fail - Oklahoma:Establishing the Death Penalty – Pass
  40. 40. L O O K I N G A H E A D O N T H E I S S U E S ?
  41. 41. PAGE 41 H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: V I E WS O F G O V E RN MENT Source: 2004 2008 2012 2016 Government should do more to solve problems 46% 51% 43% 45% Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals 49% 43% 51% 50%
  42. 42. PAGE 42 H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: I M M I GRATI ON Source: Clinton Trump Offered a chance to apply for legal status (70%) 60% 34% Deported to the country they came from (25%) 14% 84% Illegal immigrants working in the United States should be: Clinton Trump Support (41%) 10% 86% Oppose (54%) 76% 17% View of U.S. wall along the entire Mexican border:
  43. 43. PAGE 43 H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: H E A LTH C A R E Source: Clinton Trump Did not go far enough (30%) 78% 18% Was about right (18%) 82% 10% Went to far (47%) 13% 83% View on Obamacare:
  44. 44. PAGE 44 H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: I N T E RNATI ONAL T R A DE Source: Clinton Trump Creates U.S. jobs (38%) 59% 35% Takes away U.S. jobs (42%) 31% 65% Does not affect jobs (11%) 63% 30% Effect of international trade:
  45. 45. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Katie Cissel Greenway (katie@gpg.com) Chris Gallup (cgallup@gpg.com)

×