This document discusses the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. election. It notes that the pandemic has led to postponed primaries, a delayed Democratic National Convention, canceled campaign rallies, and increased campaign advertising. Polls show Biden leading nationally but some battleground states like Florida are close. Vote by mail is supported by most Americans but opposed by some Republican leaders. Key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump narrowly won in 2016 could decide the election again. Issues related to healthcare and the economy are likely to play a larger role in campaigns due to the pandemic.

1. April 2020
COVID-19 and the State of the Election

2. State of Affairs

3. The U.S. is on the brink of a recession, or worse
3
Sources: YTD Return (https://www.ytdreturn.com/); Washington Post, 4/16/2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/16/unemployment-claims-coronavirus/); The Economist/YouGov, 4/12-14/2020,
n = 1500 US adults (https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/6fdl23u606/econTabReport.pdf); Vox, 4/16/2020 (https://www.vox.com/2020/4/16/21223049/unemployment-filings-high-great-depression)
12 – 20%
estimated
unemployment –
highest since the Great
Depression
22 million
people filed for
unemployment since
President Trump’s declaration
of national emergency
-14.38%
Dow Jones
- 10.40%
S&P 500
+1.48%
Nasdaq
Change from January 2020
65% of Americans
think the pandemic will
lead to an economic
recession
59% also believe a
recession will have a serious
impact on them personally
Through April 17, 2020

4. A wider margin of Americans now believe the country is going down the wrong track
4
Sources: Monmouth University, n = 857 US adults, 4/3-7/2020 (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_040820.pdf/)
37%
31% 33%
40%
35% 35%
29% 28% 29% 31%
28% 30% 30% 32%
37% 37% 39%
30%
57%
61%
58%
53%
57% 55%
63% 62% 63% 62% 62% 61% 61%
56% 56% 57%
54%
61%
Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
Wrong track
Right direction
Are things in the country going in the right direction,
or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

5. Modest bump in Pres. Trump’s approval ratings, but most believe he could be doing
more
5
Sources: Washington Post, 4/14-19/2020, n = 1,013 US adults (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C67C1vtrqFBk6BXRJvZRRDTo3Um2KOzfqKIvd11SSSU/edit#gid=0); Gallup
(https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx); Quinnipiac, n = 2,077, 4/2-6/2020 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us04082020_uksb19.pdf)
How well is Trump responding to
coronavirus?
23% not so
good
19% excellent
2% no opinion
The Crisis Bump:
President Trump’s bump has been modest
and brief compared to other Presidents in
times of crisis:
• President Trump during Covid-19: +5 pts. in
the first few weeks (49%), now back to pre-
crisis levels
• George W. Bush after 9/11 attacks: +49 pts.
(90%)
• Jimmy Carter at the beginning of the Iran
Hostage Crisis: +29 pts. (58%)
• John F. Kennedy after Cuban Missile Crisis:
+13 pts. (74%)
25% good
31% poor

6. Perception of President Trump’s handling of Coronavirus has improved since March,
significant divide along party lines
6
80% 81% 82% 82% 83% 85% 85% 86% 86% 86%
47% 46% 46%
42% 44%
48% 49% 49% 48% 47%
41% 40% 42%
37% 40%
45% 46% 46% 44% 43%
27%
23% 21%
14% 15%
21% 20% 20% 18% 17%
16-Feb-20 23-Feb-20 1-Mar-20 8-Mar-20 15-Mar-20 22-Mar-20 29-Mar-20 5-Apr-20 12-Apr-20 19-Apr-20
Source: FiveThirtyEight average of available polling (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/)
Feb 29: First U.S.
death reported
March 13:
National
emergency
declared
March 21:
Millions start
filing for
unemployment
March 26: U.S.
deaths
surpass 1,000
Republicans
All Americans
Independents
Democrats
Those who approve of Trump’s handling of the Coronavirus

7. Americans across party lines welcome the $2 trillion stimulus bill
7
79% approve
15% disapprove
6%
don’t know
78% of Republicans and
86% of Democrats approve
Approval of the $2 trillion stimulus bill
passed by Congress
Sources: Gallup (https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx); NBC/WSJ, n = 900 registered voters, 4/13-15/2020 (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6842659-200203-NBCWSJ-
April-Poll-4-19-20-Release.html); Quinnipiac, n = 2,077, 4/2-6/2020 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us04082020_uksb19.pdf)
Americans are more worried
about the federal government
not spending enough to
support the economy than
they are about the possibility
that the government will
spend too much.

8. Americans are nervous about returning to normal life after the crisis
8
58% are worried that
the U.S. will move too
quickly in loosening
restrictions.
Sources: NBC/WSJ, n = 900 registered voters, 4/13-15/2020 (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6842659-200203-NBCWSJ-April-Poll-4-19-20-Release.html); Gallup, 3/27-29/2020
(https://news.gallup.com/poll/306053/americans-hesitant-return-normal-short-term.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication)
44% very
unlikely9% very
likely
15%
unlikely
Would return to normal daily life if
restrictions were lifted right now
8% likely
24% other

9. Potential Impact on 2020 Election

10. Historic changes to the nomination process and the way campaigns are run
10
Source: New York Times, 4/2/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/milwaukee-democratic-convention-delayed.html); New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/article/2020-campaign-
primary-calendar-coronavirus.html); CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/elections-coronavirus-voting-rights-mail-in-voting/index.html); CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-super-
pacs-go-to-war-as-biden-trump-scale-back-campaigns.html); Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN21P3G0); Politico, 4/2/2020 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/dnc-
postpones-presidential-convention-until-august-17-161459); CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-trump-plays-campaign-style-video-in-white-house-briefing.html)
• Primaries postponed. Primaries in Ohio, Georgia, Louisiana, and Wyoming have been delayed, and
measures such as voting by mail have been implemented for other contests.
• Delayed Democratic convention. Originally scheduled for mid-July, the DNC has delayed until the week
of August 17, a week before Republican’s regularly-scheduled convention. There has also been some discussion
about changing the conventions’ formats and cutting the sizes of the guest lists to limit crowd sizes.
• Canceled campaign rallies. With limits on crowd sizes, VP Biden and Pres. Trump have called off all
campaign events. Videos and Zoom calls have taken the place of rallies, but they’re not getting the same
attention.
• More advertising to replace in-person events. Super PACs for both Biden and Trump have committed
several million dollars to ads so far.
• Pres. Trump benefits from briefings in the absence of regular campaigning. During one briefing
Pres. Trump aired a video about his handling of the pandemic that shared similarities to campaign ads.

11. Americans support vote by mail, but party leaders are at odds
11
Most Americans (72%)
support a requirement for
vote-by-mail measures for the
November election.
It’s uncertain at this point if voting by
mail will be possible, and how it will
impact turnout on either side.
In the wake of COVID-19, ensuring
election integrity and combatting voter
suppression has quickly become
a pivotal election issue – one that will
likely be debated for months to come.
Sources: Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN21P3G0); The Hill, 4/9/2020 (https://thehill.com/homenews/house/492116-pelosi-defends-push-for-mail-in-voting-says-gop-has-been-
hijacked); Vox, 4/8/2020 (https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/8/21209306/election-2020-vote-by-mail-Wisconsin)
But Party leadership is at odds:
“We do want to have vote-by-mail because we think that it
removes obstacles to participation but it's also healthier at this
time. Some people may prefer to go to the polls, but the lower
that number is, the healthier for everyone.”
Speaker Pelosi
“Let's get our economy back on its feet and then we can debate
about elections. Do not use this for political gains.
That is wrong.”
House Minority Leader McCarthy
“Republicans should fight very hard when it comes to statewide
mail-in voting. Democrats are clamoring for it. Tremendous
potential for voter fraud, and for whatever reason, doesn’t work
out well for Republicans.”
President Trump

12. 188 28 16 102 54 25 125
The electoral college map shows a tight race to come
12
K
Y
Electoral vote counter:
Democrat: 232 Republican: 204
Safe Democrat
Likely Democrat
Toss up
Likely Republican
Safe Republican
Source: Cook Political Report, 3/9/2020 (https://www.270towin.com/maps/cook-political-2020-electoral-ratings)
Need 270 to win

13. Polls show Biden ahead nationally, but the race is close in battleground states
Source: NBC/WSJ, n = 900 registered voters, 4/13-15/2020 (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6842659-200203-NBCWSJ-April-Poll-4-19-20-Release.html); St. Pete Polls, 4/16-17/2020, n = 5659 registered Florida voters
(http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_April17_G84JW.pdf); OH Predictive Insights, 4/7-8/2020, n = 600 likely Arizona voters
(https://ohpredictiveinsights.cmail19.com/t/ViewEmail/i/0639AAE631CB7AE22540EF23F30FEDED/5C93F9ED58F90D146A4D3D471B02C3D7); Public Policy Polling, n = 1,727 Wisconsin voters, 3/10-11/2020
(https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/WisconsinGeneralResults.pdf); Yahoo/YouGov, n = 1,750 voters in Pennsylvania, 3/6-8/2020 (https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-biden-crushing-
sanders-in-michigan-and-other-battleground-states-ahead-of-tuesdays-primary-180347138.html); NBC News/Marist, n = 2,020 Ohio adults, 3/10-13/2020 (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_OH-NOS-
and-Tables_2003150954.pdf); Public Policy Polling, n = 1,318 NC Voters, 4/14-15/2020 (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NCResultsApril2020.pdf)
VP Joe
Biden
49%
13
Popular Vote Battleground Advantages
President
Trump
42%
Florida
TIE*
Arizona
Biden +9 Michigan
Biden +7
Wisconsin
Biden +3
Pennsylvania
Biden +6
Ohio
Biden +4North Carolina
Biden +1*
*denotes polling within the margin of error

14. A challenge for Biden: Only half of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting this year
Source: CNN/SSRS, n = 1,022 registered voters, 4/3-6/2020 (http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/04/09/rel4c.-.2020.pdf)
14
How enthusiastic are you about voting for president
in this year’s election?
37%
21%
43%
35%
Republican Reg Voters Democratic Reg Voters
Very enthusiastic Extremely enthusiastic
80%
56%
Non-white voters are some of
the least enthusiastic (41%),
which could put Biden at a
major disadvantage in critical
swing states with close contests.
Biden will need to bridge the
divide in the Democratic Party
to overcome this gap.

15. Three states Pres. Trump narrowly won in 2016 will again be pivotal
15
Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan
2016
Result Trump +0.7 Trump +0.7 Trump +0.3
Source: New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president); (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-elections.html);
(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-wisconsin-elections.html); (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-michigan-elections.html); Vox (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-
politics/2020/4/9/21213793/biden-presumptive-democratic-nominee-trump-2020-polls-swing-state); The Atlantic, 4/9/2020 (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/trump-whitmer-desantis-coronavirus/609727/);
(https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/old-folks-like-biden-that-could-really-matter-in-november.html, https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/wisconsin-election-swing/); Detroit News
(https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/04/20/poll-michiganians-favor-whitmer-covid-19-handling-over-trump/5164340002/)
2018
Results
Sen. Casey (D) re-elected
House races split
Gov. Whitmer (D) elected
Sen. Stabenow (D) re-elected
House races split
Gov. Evers (D) elected
Sen. Baldwin (D) re-elected
R’s took more House seats
Recent
Context
Gov. Whitmer has been critical of
Pres. Trump’s Covid-19 response as
Michigan has been hit hard.
Michigan voters favor Whitmer’s
handling of the crisis over Trump’s.
Gov. Evers’ response to Covid-19 has
been widely praised. Democrat Jill
Karofsky won an upset State Supreme
Court election in April 2020, raising
concerns for the GOP.
Biden has a perceived
home-state advantage.

16. Coronavirus may be shifting issues campaigns will likely focus on
16
Healthcare
Paid Leave
Unemployment
Other policy issues not related to the current
crisis may be put on the back burner.
Source: The Glover Park Group Caucus research, n=200 voters, 3/23/20 (https://gpg.com/report-depth-conversation-american-voters-covid-19/); Quinnipiac, n = 2,077, 4/2-6/2020
(https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us04082020_uksb19.pdf)
Education
Manufacturing
We can expect economic and health-related
issues to play an outsized role this year:
More Americans believe Pres. Trump would do a
better job handling the economy than Biden.
More Americans believe Biden would handle
healthcare better than Pres. Trump.

17. Down Ballot Races

18. Coronavirus campaign issues will deeply impact down ballot races
18
• State/local races are not top of mind and candidates need to walk a fine line. Amidst the
pandemic and the presidential election, down ballot candidates, especially challengers, are fighting to be
heard. And incumbents can't let their actions appear campaign motivated.
• House Democrats have raised more money than Republicans. After bringing in millions in 2019,
vulnerable Democrats have more in their coffers. Republican challengers need to catch up, which will be difficult
without in-person fundraisers.
• Democrats challenging incumbent Senate Republicans in key states have also outraised their
opponents. In Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, and Maine, Democrats raised more than sitting GOP
Senators in the first quarter of 2020. Super PACS for both parties plan to spend a total of $130 million in these
states and Iowa this year.
• Delayed primaries will create further funding issues for candidates. Candidates on both sides of
the aisle are still spending to defeat primary challengers, and not yet able to turn their spending on the general
election.
Source: Politico, 4/6/2020 (https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2020/04/congressional-campaigns-brace-for-fundraising-disaster-1911434); Politico, 4/19/2020
(https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/19/house-elections-cash-rich-democrats-tighten-grip-194570); Politico 4/20/2020 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/20/democrats-momentum-senate-majority-in-
play-194415)

19. There are 35 Senate seats in play – 23 held by Republicans and 12 held by Democrats
19
ü Democrats are looking to
pick up toss-up seats in AZ, CO,
NC, and ME.
ü Republicans are looking to
regain the AL Senate seat that
currently leans Republican.
ü Retirements: Senators Lamar
Alexander (R-TN), Pat Roberts
(R-KS), Johnny Isakson (R-GA),
Mike Enzi (R-WY), and Tom
Udall (D-NM) are all retiring.
Democrats need to pick up 4
seats to retake the Senate.
Denotes a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016 where a Republican Senator is up for re-election in 2020
Denotes a state Pres. Trump won in 2016 where a Democratic Senator is up for re-election in 2020
K
Y

20. The most vulnerable Senate seats up in 2020 are currently held by Republicans
20
Solid Dem Likely/Lean Dem Toss Up Likely/Lean Rep Solid Rep
DE-Coons MN-Smith AZ-McSally AL-Jones AK-Sullivan SD-Rounds
IL-Durbin NM-Open CO-Gardner GA-Loeffler AR-Cotton TN-Open
MA-Markey MI-Peters ME-Collins IA-Ernst ID-Risch WV-Moore Capito
NH-Shaheen NC-Tillis KS-Open LA-Cassidy WY-Open
NJ-Booker MT-Daines MS-Hyde-Smith
OR-Merkley NE-Sasse
RI-Reed OK-Inhofe
VA-Warner SC-Graham
Source: Cook Political Report (https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings)
To take the majority in the Senate, Democrats will need to retain all current
seats and pick up all four toss-ups. If Democrats and Republicans split the
Senate, the Vice President will break the tie.

21. Republicans need to pick up 21 seats in 2020 to retake the House
21
Democrats 232
Republicans 197
Independents 1
Vacant 5
Retirements: 27 House
Republicans and 9 House
Democrats are retiring.
Democrats hold 17 seats
that are currently labeled
“toss ups.” Only 5
Republican seats hold the
same distinction.

22. Lean Dem Toss Up Lean Rep
AZ-01 O’Halleran NH-01 Pappas CA-21 Cox NM-02 Torres Small GA-07 Open AZ-06 Schweikert
NJ-02 Van
Drew
CA-10 Harder NJ-07 Malinowski CA-25 Vacant NY-11 Rose IL-13 Davis FL-15 Spano OH-01 Chabot
CA-39 Cisneros NV-03 Lee GA-06 McBath NY-22 Brindisi PA-10 Perry IN-05 Open
PA-01
Fitzpatrick
CA-48 Rouda NY-19 Delgado IA-01 Finkenauer OK-05 Horn TX-22 Open MI-03 Amash (I) TX-10 McCaul
FL-26 Mucarsel-
Powell
PA-07 Wild IA-02 Open PA-08 Cartwright TX-24 Open MO-02 Wagner TX-21 Roy
IL-14 Underwood TX-07 Fletcher IA-03 Axne SC-01 Cunningham NE-02 Bacon
KS-03 Davids TX-23 Open ME-02 Golden VA-02 Luria
MI-08 Slotkin TX-32 Allred MN-07 Peterson VA-07 Spanberger
MI-11 Stevens UT-04 McAdams NJ-03 Kim
MN-02 Craig To take control of the House, Republicans will need to retain all current
seats and flip 21 additional seats.
Although more vulnerable seats are held by Democrats, it’s unlikely that Republicans
will pick up enough to flip the House
22
Source: Cook Political Report (https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings) Italics denote freshman representatives

23. Upcoming calendar
Date Event
April 17 Caucus in Wyoming* (mail-in only)
April 28 Primary in Ohio* (mail-in only)
May 2 Caucus in Guam and primary in Kansas
May 12 Primaries in Nebraska
May 19 Primary in Oregon
May 22 Primary in Hawaii* (mail-in only)
June 2
Primaries in Delaware*, DC, Indiana*, Maryland*, Montana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania*, Rhode Island*, and
South Dakota
June 9 Primaries in Georgia* and West Virginia*
June 23 Primaries in Kentucky* and New York*
Aug. 17-20 Democratic convention in Milwaukee, WI*
Aug. 24-27 Republican convention in Charlotte, NC
Nov. 3 Election Day
23
* Rescheduled from earlier date.