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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

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GPG analysis of publicly-released polls with an eye toward the upcoming Republican convention.

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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

  1. 1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis July 18, 2016
  2. 2. H E A D I N G I N T O T H E R E P U B L I C A N C O N V E N T I O N
  3. 3. F O L L OW ING P R I M ARY B AT T LES , R E P UB LI CANS S AY PA R TY I S D I V I D ED Would you describe the Republican Party today as united or divided? United 16% Divided 81% Don’t know/No answer 3% Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016 PAGE 3
  4. 4. M O S T R E P UBL ICA NS W O U L D H AV E P R E F ERRE D S O M EO NE O T H E R T H A N T R U MP A S T H E N O M I NEE Trump 40% Other 54% No opinion 6% Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll July-11-14, 2016 Trump 48%Somone else 51% Don't know 1% Out of the candidates who ran, whodid you want to see win the Republican nominationfor president this year? Who would you rather haveas the RepublicanParty’s presidential nominee? Source: Fox News June 26-28, 2016 PAGE 4
  5. 5. H A L F O F R E P U BLI CANS B E L I EVE G O P W I L L N O T S O L I DLY U N I T E B E H I ND T R U MP 54% 38% Have disagreements that keepmany from supporting him Unite solidly behind him Among Republican primary preference % of Republican/Rep-leaning registered voters who say if Trump is the party’s nominee, theparty will… 28% 52% Other Trump Source: Pew Research Center Poll June 15-26, 2016 About a quarter of Republicans who supported other GOP candidates say party will united behind Trump PAGE 5
  6. 6. Y E T, M O R E S T R ONG S U P PORT B E H I ND T R UM P T H AN R O M NEY O R M C C A IN 46% 71% 34% 38% 45% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 % who say they support their candidate choice ‘strongly’ Source: Pew Research Center Survey 6/15-6/26 PAGE 6
  7. 7. M A J O RI TY O F R E P U B LIC AN V O T E RS S AY T R U MP R E P R ESEN TS PA R T Y’S C O R E VA L UE S Overall, do you think DonaldTrump represents thecore principles andvalues thatthe RepublicanParty SHOULD standfor, or doesn’t he? Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016 Total GOP voters Trump voters Non-Trump Voters Yes 61% 88% 40% No 35% 11% 50% PAGE 7 RepublicanPrimary Voters
  8. 8. L O O K I N G A T T H E C A N D I D A T E S
  9. 9. M O R E T H A N H A L F O F A M E R I CANS H AV E A N U N FAVO RABL E V I E W O F C L I N TON A N D T R U MP 55% 54% 57% 60% 55% 57% 55% 52% 54% 59% 54% 52% 58% 66% 64% 60% 57% 59% 62% 64% 63% 58% 64% 59% Clinton Trump Source: Huffington Post Pollster. Polls fielded from 6/9-7/16 PAGE 9 Unfavorable
  10. 10. AT T R IB UTES U S E D T O D E S C RI BE C L I N TON A N D T R U M P 77% 30% 45% 54% 58% 60% 82% 45% 35%34% 34% 35% 35% 45% 63% 66% 83% 89% Experienced Honestand trustworthy Cares about people like me Sensible Corrupt Patriotic Intelligent Obnoxious Hot-headed Clinton:Yes,itdoes Trump:Yes,itdoes For each of the following words and phrases, please tell me if you think it describes [Trump/Clinton]. Source: Fox News June 26-28, 2016 PAGE 10
  11. 11. M O S T A M E RI CANS D O N O T T H I N K T R U MP I S Q U A L IFI ED T O S E R V E A S P R E S IDE NT Qualified 59% Qualified 37% Not Qualified 39% Not Qualified 60% Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Regardless of whether or not you’d votefor [him/her], do youthink [Trumpor Clinton] is or is not qualified toserve as president? Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll July 11-14, 2016 PAGE 11
  12. 12. A M E R IC ANS WA N T A P R E S I DENT W H O C A N TA K E T H E N AT ION I N A N E W D I R E CT ION 56% 38% New Direction Same Direction Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll June 20-23, 2016 Thinking about the electionin November, which of thesetwo statements comes closest to your own views: (After eight years if Barack Obama,we need to elect a president who canset thenation in a new direction) OR (We need to keep thecountry movingin the direction Obama has been takingus)? PAGE 12
  13. 13. A N X I E TY I S H I G H A B O U T B O T H C A N DID ATES , E S P E CIA LLY T R UMP No opinion 3% Clinton Anxious 50% Comfortable 47% No opinion 3% Trump Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll June 20-23, 2016 Thinking about ____ as president – are youcomfortablewith this, or does it make you anxious? Anxious 70% Comfortable 27% PAGE 13
  14. 14. L O O K I N G A H E A D T O T H E G E N E R A L E L E C T I O N
  15. 15. G R E ATER E L E CTI ON I N T E RE ST T H A N D U R I NG P R E V IOUS C A M PAIG NS; M O R E S AY ‘ I T R E A L LY M AT TER S W H O W I N S’ 63% 50% 46% 58% 72% 67% 80% 29% 41% 43% 36% 23% 30% 15% 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Quite a lot Only a little Thought about election… Source: Pew Research Center Poll June 15-26, 2016 56% 67% 63% 63% 74% 44% 29% 32% 34% 22% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 It really matters who wins election Things will be pretty much the same no matter who wins Among registered voters Among registered voters When it comes to making progress on important issues facing the country… PAGE 15
  16. 16. T R U M P T R A IL S N AT IO NALLY; O N E I N T E N M AY C H A NG E V O T E Clinton voters Trump voters Yes, mind made up 88% 90% No, might change before election 11% 10% (Amongregisteredvoters) Source: Huffington Post Pollster Average Updated 7/18/16 Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll 7/8-7/12 Is your mind made up? PAGE 16 Clinton 43.4% Trump 39.8%
  17. 17. S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S O R K Y N M M N C O G A N H AZ FL VA OH PAIA WI CO NV (7/5-7/12) Clinton: 44.6% Trump: 36.6% (6/22-7/15) Clinton: 42.3% Trump: 39.3% (6/21-7/10) Clinton: 44.3% Trump: 38.7% (6/22-7/11) Clinton: 45.5% Trump: 42.3% Clinton: 43.8% Trump: 39.0% (6/13-7/12) Clinton: 44.0% Trump: 43.4% (6/25-7/11) (6/22-7/15) Clinton: 43.4% Trump: 41.6% Trump: 44.0% Clinton: 43.5% (5/24-7/10) Clinton: 43.5% Trump: 43.0% (6/20-6/23) NC Clinton: 43.3% Trump: 42.0% (6/20-7/11) Source: RealClearPolitics PAGE 17
  18. 18. W H A T ’ S N E X T
  19. 19. PAGE 19 K E Y U P C O MI NG D AT ES I N 2 0 1 6 E L E C TI ON C Y C L E Event Date GOP National Convention July 18-21 Democratic National Convention July 25-28 First Presidential Debate September 26 Vice Presidential Debate October 4 Second Presidential Debate October 9 Third Presidential Debate October 16 Election Day November 8 Countdown to Election Day (from July 18): 112 days
  20. 20. M A J O RI TY O F V O T E R S N O T L O O KI NG F O R WARD T O R E M A I NDER O F C A M PAIG N Are you looking forward to the next few months of the presidential campaign, or not? Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016 No 61% Yes 37% PAGE 20
  21. 21. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)

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