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The Public Opinion Landscape: From Obama to Trump

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GPG analysis of Obama’s legacy and perceptions of where the public stands at the start of Trump’s presidency.

Published in: News & Politics
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The Public Opinion Landscape: From Obama to Trump

  1. 1. J a n u a r y 1 9 , 2 0 1 7 Changing of the Guard: From Obama to Trump
  2. 2. PAGE 2 TABLE O F CO NTENTS 1. Obama’s Legacy…...……………………………………………………..............……...3 • Economic Legacy…………………...………………………………………………11 • Health Care Legacy………………...……………………………...……………....19 • Foreign Policy Legacy………………...………………………………...………....25 • Lasting Impressions…………………...…………………………………………...33 2. Inauguration of President Trump……………………………………..………………...38 • Perceptions of Trump & Congress…...…...…………………………………...…39 • Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward…………………………………..49 Slide
  3. 3. Obama’s Legacy
  4. 4. Source: Vox Media PAGE 4 O BAM A ENTERED O FFI CE I N A DEEPENI NG RECESSI O N, WI TH TWO O NG O I NG WARS DEM ANDI NG M O RE RESO URCES THAN EVER BEFO RE Economic Challenges: Foreign Policy Challenges: War in Afghanistan • $39 billion spent (FY ‘08) • 34,400 troops deployed in Jan. 2009 War in Iraq • $144 billion spent (FY ‘08) • 139,500 troops deployed in Jan. 2009 Great Recession • Unprecedented foreclosure rate • Expanding unemployment • Auto and Financial sectors reeling Sources: New York Times, American Forces in Afghanistan and Iraq CRS report: The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11
  5. 5. Health Care President Obama made Health Care reform a priority his first year in office Wall Street Reforms Following the Great Recession, Obama and Congress increased regulation and oversight of the financial sector Environmental Protection Driven largely by executive authority, Obama sought to protect public lands, expand protections, and review potentially harmful practices Immigration With limited assistance from Congressional partners, Obama sought to reform the immigration system PAGE 5 O VER HI S EI G HT YEARS I N O FFI CE, O BAM A SET HI S SI G HTS O N A NUM BER O F PO LI CY O BJECTI VES WI TH M I XED RESULTS
  6. 6. Source: Gallup, Jan. 4-8, 2017 PAGE 6 AM ERI CANS SAY HI STO RY WI LL BE M O RE KI ND THAN UNKI ND TO O BAM A 18% 29% 18% 17% 18% Outstanding Above average Below average PoorAverage 35% Below average/Poor47% Outstanding/Above average How do you think Barack Obama will go down in history -- as an outstanding president, above average, average, below average or poor?
  7. 7. PAGE 7 VI EWS O F PRO G RESS UNDER O BAM A ARE M I XED 25% 25% 26% 30% 30% 33% 42% 43% 23% 20% 26% 27% 28% 38% 20% 13% 47% 52% 38% 37% 39% 23% 36% 43% Situation in Iraq Race relations Situation in Afganistan Situation for blacks National defense and military Climate change Economy Healthcare Made progress Stood still Lost ground I'm going to mention some issues facing the country and ask whether you believe the United States has made progress, stood still or lost ground in each during the last eight years, since Barack Obama became president. How about in terms of -- [category]? Top 3 “Made progress”: 1. Situation for gays and lesbians (68%) 2. Energy (46%) 3. Healthcare (43%) Top 3 “Lost ground”: 1. Federal debt (57%) 2. Crime (56%) 3. Race relations (52%) Source: Gallup, Jan. 2-3, 2017
  8. 8. Source: Suffolk University/USA TODAY, Dec 14-18, 2016 PAGE 8 AFFO RDABLE CARE ACT M O ST CO M M O NLY M ENTI O NED AS O BAM A’S BI G G EST SUCCESS, AND FAI LURE I’m going to read you 7 areas of focus during the terms of Barack Obama and ask you to choose which was his biggest success and which his biggest failure. Obama’s biggest achievement? Obama’s biggest failure? 21% 3% 4% 5% 6% 9% 22% 24% (None) Battle against terrorism Race relations Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Climate change policy Moral leadership Economic recovery from Great Recession Healthcare/Affordable Care Act 8% 4% 5% 5% 8% 15% 15% 27% (None) Climate change policy Moral leadership Economic recovery from Great Recession Battle against terrorism Race relations Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Healthcare/Affordable Care Act
  9. 9. Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Nov 30 – Dec 5, 2016 PAGE 9 M I XED VI EWS O F O BAM A ADM I NI STRATI O N ACCO M PLI SHM ENTS AND FAI LURES 60% 24% 49% 27% 64% 44% Bill Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama Failures will outweigh accomplishments Accomplishments will outweigh failures In the long run, do you think the accomplishments of the Obama administration will outweigh its failures, or will the failures outweigh the accomplishments? 78% of Democrats 13% of Republicans
  10. 10. Source: Pew Research Center, Nov. 30- Dec. 5, 2016 PAGE 10 PARTI SAN DI VI DE O N HO W M UCH PRO G RESS O BAM A M ADE O N SO LVI NG M AJO R PRO BLEM S 55% 10% 35% 36% 27% 32% 4% 15% 9% 2% 46% 21% Dem/Lean Dem Rep/Lean Rep Total Made progress Tried but failed Did not address Made worse Has Obama ______ toward solving major problems facing the country?
  11. 11. E c o n o m i c L e g a c y
  12. 12. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, data from Bureau of Economic Analysis and Congressional Budget Office PAGE 12 FACI NG RECESSI O N ENTERI NG O FFI CE, O BAM A CO NTENDED WI TH STAG NANT G DP, HI G H UNEM PLO YM ENT AND RAM PANT FO RECLO SURES Source: RealtyTrac Key Economic Indicators • Real GDP growth rate: -6.3% in 2008 Q4 • Unemployment rate: 7.3% in Dec. 2008 3,157,806 Foreclosures in 2008 • Up 81% from 2007, and 225% since ‘06
  13. 13. Source: CNBC, data from BEA PAGE 13 SI NCE THE END O F THE RECESSI O N I N M I D 2009, THE ECO NO M Y HAS G RO WN STEADI LY Following the recession, GDP grew consistently throughout Obama’s presidency Although growth was not as dynamic as that seen under Clinton or Reagan, the economy recovered from recession’s stagnation under Obama Carter Reagan Bush I Bush II ObamaClinton
  14. 14. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics PAGE 14 SI NCE TO PPI NG O UT ARO UND TEN PERCENT, UNEM PLO YM ENT HAS DI SPLAYED A CO NSI STENT DO WNWARD TREND 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) Great Recession Obama is elected Obama is re-elected Although the recession technically ended in summer of 2009, the labor market did not reach its nadir until 2010 Since Obama was re-elected, the economy has continued to add jobs as we finally reach pre- recession employment levels
  15. 15. O BAM A PRESI DENCY CO I NCI DED WI TH HI STO RI C G AI NS I N THE STO CK M ARKET Dow Jones Performance by President Clinton: 228.9% Obama: 147.5% Reagan: 147.3% GW Bush: -26.5% GHW Bush: 41.3% Carter : -.7% PAGE 15 Source: CNBC, data from BEA Great Recession Feb. 2009: 8,037.61 Obama assumes office Nov. 2007: 15,364.11 Obama begins 2nd term Jan. 2017: 19,804.72 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Nov. 2007- Jan. 2017) During Obama’s administration, the Dow Jones industrial average increased by a larger percentage than it had under any president since 1900, except for the Coolidge and Clinton administrations
  16. 16. Source: Quinnipiac, Nov. 17-20, 2016 PAGE 16 LARG ER SHARE O F PUBLI C THI NKS THAT O BAM A’S PO LI CI ES HELPED NATI O NAL ECO NO M Y THAN HURT O R M ADE NO DI FFERENCE Do you think President Obama’s policies have helped the nation’s economy, hurt the nation’s economy, or haven’t made a difference? 44% 16% 38% 2% Helped Hurt No difference Don’t know
  17. 17. Source: Fox News, Dec 11-13, 2016 PAGE 17 ALM O ST HALF O F AM ERI CANS SAY THEI R PERSO NAL FI NANCES ARE THE SAM E, ALTHO UG H FEW SAY O BAM A’S PO LI CI ES HELPED 30% 47% 22% 1% Are you and your family better financially than you were when Barack Obama became president, worse off financially or about the same? Do you think President Obama’s policies have helped your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or haven’t made a difference? Better off Worse off About the same Don’t know Source: Quinnipiac, Nov. 17-20, 2016 21% 44% 33% 2% Helped Hurt No difference Don’t know
  18. 18. PAGE 18 M AJO RI TY O F AM ERI CANS SAY THE AM ERI CAN DREAM I S HARDER TO ATTAI N TO DAY; PLURALI TY ARE PESSI M I STI C LO O KI NG TO THE FUTURE Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Poll, Dec. 12-15, 2016 Compared with the past – say a generation ago – do you feel the American Dream is easier to attain today, harder to attain, or is it about the same? Looking to the future – say a generation from now – do you feel the American Dream will be easier to attain than today, harder to attain, or will it be about the same? 10% 69% 20% 1% Easier Harder About the same Not sure 17% 49% 29% 5% Easier Harder About the same Not sure
  19. 19. H e a l t h C a r e L e g a c y
  20. 20. PAGE 20 WHERE O THERS HAVE FAI LED, O BAM A WAS ABLE TO PASS HEALTH CARE REFO RM WI TH THE AFFO RDABLE CARE ACT Key Provisions: • Medicaid expansion • Coverage for pre-existing conditions • Young adults can stay on parent’s plan until 26 • Tax credits to establish state-based exchanges • Individual mandate (tax up to $2k for lacking insurance) • Rx discounts for seniors • Required free preventative care services • Requirement for employers with 50 full time employees to provide health insurance Source: Washington Post The Affordable Care Act: • For decades, progressives argued that the health care system ought to be reformed in order to ensure Americans’ right to health care, and reduce the costs associated with coverage • Armed with one of the largest legislative majorities in recent history, Obama leveraged his political capital to force a national discussion on health care reform • After a complex lawmaking process, Obama signed the Affordable Care Act into law on March 23, 2010
  21. 21. Source: NBC News/ WSJ, Mar 11- 14, 2010 PAGE 21 AS PRO CESS BECAM E M I RED I N PARTI SANSHI P, PUBLI C SAW REPUBLI CANS I N CO NG RESS AS O BSTRUCTI O NI ST 26% 35% 37% Favor Oppose No Opinion Would you favor or oppose the Democrats using a Senate rule called reconciliation that would allow them to avoid a Republican filibuster and resolve the final details of the health care bill so it can pass with a majority vote? If you do not know enough about this to have an opinion, please say so. 47% 48% Do you think Obama and the Democrats in Congress did or did not make a good faith effort to cooperate with the Republicans on health care reform? Did Did not 63% 31% Do you think the Republicans in Congress did or did not make a good faith effort to cooperate with Obama and the Democrats on health care reform? Did Did not Source: ABC News/Washington Post, Mar 23- 26, 2010
  22. 22. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, Dec. 13-19, 2016 PAGE 22 M O RE AM ERI CANS HAVE HAD UNFAVO RABLE O PI NI O N O F ACA THAN FAVO RABLE FO R M O ST O F I TS HI STO RY As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it? 46 5049 41 41 39 34 41 37 45 38 43 363535 39 33 38 35 40 43 39 43 38 38 40 35 40 44 50 46 44 51 44 44 39 42 40 43 4950 45 53 43 46 42 42 40 4545 49 4647 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable: 46% Favorable: 43%
  23. 23. Source: American Community Survey, Census Bureau PAGE 23 14.60% 15.10% 15.50% 15.10% 14.80% 14.50% 11.70% 9.40% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 March 21, 2010: ACA signed into law Oct. 1, 2013: Open enrollment begins UNI NSURED RATE HAS DRO PPED O VER FI VE PERCENT SI NCE THE BEG I NNI NG O F O PEN ENRO LLM ENT Uninsured Rate
  24. 24. Source: PwC Health Research Institute medical cost trends 2007-2017 PAGE 24 HEALTH CARE CO STS CO NTI NUE TO G RO W, BUT AT A SLO WER RATE THAN BEFO RE ACA 11.9% 9.9% 9.2% 9.0% 9.0% 8.5% 7.5% 6.5% 6.8% 6.5% 6.5% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 17.5% However, National Healthcare Expenditures have continued to account for roughly 17.5% of GDP since 2008 ~$3.2 trillion spent in 2015 Growth Rate of Medical Costs Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, NHE Fact Sheet March 21, 2010: ACA signed into law Oct. 1, 2013: Open enrollment begins
  25. 25. F o r e i g n P o l i c y L e g a c y
  26. 26. Source: CRS report: The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11 PAGE 26 O BAM A TO O K O VER THE WHI TE HO USE AM I D TWO LO NG RUNNI NG , EXPENSI VE WARS The 2008 election year saw high watermarks for troops deployed (~242,000) and money spent ($195 billion) Afghanistan: October 7, 2001 Spent over $165 billion on war effort in +7 years by the time Obama took office Iraq: Began March 20, 2003 Spent over $578 billion on war effort in +5 years by the time Obama took office Obama is elected
  27. 27. Source: AP/Ipsos-Public Affairs, Jan 7-9, 2008 PAGE 27 M O ST DI SAPPRO VED O F BUSH’S HANDLI NG O F I RAQ , AG REED WI TH O BAM A’S CALLS TO DRAWBACK 25% 19% 54% 2% And when it comes to...handling the situation in Iraq do you approve or disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way George W. Bush is handling that issue? Approve Disapprove Mixed feelings Don’t know/ Not sure 29% 26% 2% 11% 13% 19% Totally in agreement Mainly in agreement Mainly in disagreement Totally in disagreement Not sure 24% Disagree55% Agree Barack Obama says that the American military is being severely strained, and that we should immediately begin reducing American forces in Iraq, drawing down all troops within a sixteen-month period. He says that the best way to press Iraq's leaders to take responsibility for their future is to make it clear that we are leaving. Feel neutral Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal, Apr 25-28, 2008
  28. 28. Source: NPR, data from Brookings Institution, White House PAGE 28 FO LLO WI NG 2009 TRO O P SURG E I N AFG HANI STAN, O BAM A G UI DED DRAWBACK THRO UG HO UT 2N D TERM As you may know, (Barack) Obama has halted the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, saying the current force of 98-hundred troops will remain in place through most of next year, and 55-hundred will stay into 2017. Is this something you support or oppose? Source: ABC News/Washington Post Oct 15-18, 2015 50% 12% 39% Support Oppose No opinion American Troops Stationed in Afghanistan Obama assumes office Obama begins 2nd term
  29. 29. Source: Pew Research Center, April 12-19, 2016 PAGE 29 M O ST THI NK THE CAM PAI G N I S NO T G O I NG WELL AG AI NST I SI S, BUT APPRO VE O F THE M I SSI O N’S PURPO SE 7% 30% 4% 40% 18% Very well Fairly well Not too well Not at all well Don’t know/ Refused 58% Not too well/Not well at all38% Very/Fairly well How well do you think the U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria is going? 33% 62% Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria? Approve Disapprove 43% 50% What concerns you more about the U.S. military action in Iraq and Syria?That the US will not go far enough in stopping the Islamic militants That the US will go too far in getting involved in the situation
  30. 30. PAGE 30 M ANY BELI EVE WE ARE LESS SAFE, AND FEWER SAY U. S. M I LI TARY I S TO P I N THE WO RLD THAN I N 2010 Source: Fox News, Dec 11-13, 2016 2% 43% 35%20% Is the country safer than when Barack Obama became president, less safe or about the same? Safer Less safe About the same Don’t know 3% 49% 49% 2% 34% 64% Jan-10 Feb-16 Do you think the United States is number one in the world militarily, or that it is only one of several leading military powers? U.S. is number one Neither (vol.) /No opinion U.S. is one of several Source: Gallup poll, Jan 8-10, 2010, Feb 3-7, 2016
  31. 31. Source: Pew Research Center, Spring 2015 Global Attitudes Survey PAGE 31 WI TH RARE EXCEPTI O NS, U. S. I S VI EWED M O RE FAVO RABLY TO DAY THAN I T WAS AT START O F O BAM A’S FI RST TERM 29% 84% 15% 22% 66% 39% 14% 68% 44% 63% 12% 70% 46% 19% 47% 51% 19% 50% 41% 46% Turkey S. Korea Russia Pakistan Mexico Lebanon Jordan Japan China Australia 2008 2015 Favorability ratings in other countries, 2008 vs 2015
  32. 32. Source: Pew Research Center, Spring 2015 Global Attitudes Survey PAGE 32 RELATI O NS I M PRO VED WI TH M ANY KEY EURO PEAN ALLI ES 65% 65% 74% 50% 73% 53% 33% 68% 31% 42% UK Spain Poland Germany France 2008 2015 Favorability ratings in other countries, 2008 vs 2015
  33. 33. L a s t i n g I m p r e s s i o n s
  34. 34. Source: ABC Washington Post and Gallup polls PAGE 34 O BAM A RANKS AM O NG TO P THI RD I N APPRO VAL RATI NG FO R M O DERN, DEPARTI NG PRESI DENTS 66% 65% 64% 60% 59% 58% 56% 53% 49% 34% 33% 32% 24% Presidential job approval upon leaving office
  35. 35. Source: ABC Washington Post and Gallup polls PAGE 35 O BAM A NEVER SAW SKY- HI G H JO B APPRO VAL RATI NG S BUT THEY ALSO NEVER FELL BELO W 40% 92% 90% 87% 84% 83% 79% 79% 75% 73% 71% 69% 69% 67% 56% 48% 48% 43% 42% 40% 37% 35% 33% 28% 24% 23% 22% Career-High Approval Ratings Career-Low Approval Ratings
  36. 36. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, Jan 12-15, 2017 PAGE 36 M O RE THAN HALF O F AM ERI CANS THI NK O BAM A BRO UG HT THE RI G HT KI ND O F CHANG E TO THE CO UNTRY 54% 16% 30% Do you think Barack Obama has mostly brought the right kind of change to the country, mostly brought the wrong kind of change, or has not really brought much change either way? Has brought right kind of change Has brought wrong kind of change Has not brought much change either way
  37. 37. Source: Suffolk University/USA TODAY, Dec 14-18, 2016 PAGE 37 M AJO RI TY O F AM ERI CANS THI NK TRUM P WI LL DI SM ANTLE O BAM A’S LEG ACY; DI SAG REEM ENT O VER WHETHER THAT’S A G O O D O R BAD THI NG 12% 30% 59% Just your best guess, do you think Donald Trump will significantly dismantle President Obama’s legacy in office? Yes No Undecided If Yes or No In your view, would this be a good thing or a bad thing? 45% 43% 12% Good Bad Undecided
  38. 38. Inauguration of President Trump
  39. 39. P e r c e p t i o n s o f T r u m p & C o n g r e s s PAGE 39
  40. 40. PAGE 40 UNLI KE O THER RECENT PRESI DENTS, PUBLI C DI SAPPRO VAL O F TRUM P’S HANDLI NG O F TRANSI TI O N O UTWEI G HS APPRO VAL Source: ABC News/Washington Post, Jan. 12-15, 2017 54% 15% 21% 13% 12% 40% 80% 72% 81% 82% Disapprove Approve Bush 41 Clinton Bush 43 Obama Trump Do you approve or disapprove of the way [name] has handled the presidential transition?
  41. 41. PAGE 41 TRUM P ENTERS O FFI CE WI TH THE LO WEST FAVO RABI LI TY O F ANY M O DERN PRESI DENT Source: ABC News/Washington Post, Jan. 12-15, 2017 54% 18% 36% 20% 19% 18% 9% 40% 79% 56% 68% 65% 58% 78% Unfavorable Favorable Reagan Clinton Bush 43 Obama Trump Bush 41 Carter Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of [name]?
  42. 42. PAGE 42 CO M PARED TO RECENT PRESI DENTS, FEWER AM ERI CANS ARE CO NFI DENT I N TRUM P’S ABI LI TY TO HANDLE RESPO NSI BI LI TI ES Source: Gallup, poll dates: Trump (Dec. 7-11, 2016); Obama (Jan. 9-11, 2009); Bush (Jan. 15-16, 2001); Clinton (Nov. 10-11, 1992, and Jan. 8-11, 1993) Clinton Bush Obama Trump Prevent major scandals in his administration n/a 77% 74% 44% Handle an international crisis 70% 71% 73% 46% Use military force wisely n/a 78% 71% 47% Manage the executive branch effectively n/a 77% 84% 53% Defend U.S. interests abroad as president 65% n/a 75% 55% Handle the economy effectively n/a n/a n/a 59% Work effectively with Congress to get things done n/a 74% 89% 60% Now I'd like you to think about [...]'s ability to handle a number of things over the next four years. Please tell me whether you are very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not at all confident that [...] can ... ?
  43. 43. PAGE 43 FEELI NG S ABO UT THE I NCO M I NG PRESI DENT VARY G REATLY BY PARTY I D 24% Republicans 3% 7% 58% 11% 38% 12% 43% 35% Democrats Independents 5% 41% 17% 11% Total 35% 31% 22% Excited Optimistic Concerned Scared What best describes your feelings about what Donald Trump will do as President – excited, optimistic, concerned, or scared? Source: CBS News Poll, Dec. 9-13, 2016
  44. 44. PAGE 44 PUBLI C I S CO NFLI CTED O N WHETHER TRUM P WI LL TAKE NATI O N I N RI G HT O R WRO NG DI RECTI O N; M AJO RI TY SAYS HE WI LL DI VI DE Source: Quinnipiac Poll, Jan. 5-9, 2017 45% 49% 7% Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer 6% 54% 40% Unite Divide Don't know/ No answer As president, do you think Donald Trump will take the nation in the right direction or the wrong direction? Do you feel that Donald Trump will do more to unite the country as President, or do more to divide the country as President?
  45. 45. PAGE 45 DRI VEN BY LO W M ARKS AM O NG BO TH PARTI ES, CO NG RESSI O NAL APPRO VAL REM AI NS JUST ABO VE ALL TI M E LO W Source: Gallup, Jan, 4-8, 2017 19% Democrats 20% Republicans
  46. 46. PAGE 46 AM ERI CANS HAVE A SLI G HT PREFERENCE FO R CO NTRO L O F BO TH BRANCHES O F G O VERNM ENT BY THE SAM E PARTY Source: CBS News Poll, Dec. 9-13, 2016 35% 39% 64% 44% 45% 50% 21% 40% 20% 11% 15% 16% Independents Democrats Republicans Total Better when same party Better when different party Don't know/No answer Do you think it is better for the country to have a president who comes from the same political party that controls Congress or do you think it is better to have a president from one political party and Congress controlled by another?
  47. 47. PAGE 47 ALTHO UG H DI VI SI O NS I N CO NG RESS ARE EXPECTED TO CO NTI NUE, M ANY EXPECT TRUM P AND CO NG RESS TO WO RK TO G ETHER Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Poll, Dec. 12-15, 2016 54% 40% 6% Now, looking ahead, do you feel that in 2017 the country will find the Democrats and Republicans in Congress in a period of unity by working together and reaching consensus, or will it be a period of division where the parties hold fast to their positions and show little willingness to compromise? Note: “Not sure” and “Depends (VOL)” are displayed together Period of unity/ working together Period of division/little willingness to compromise Not sure/ Depends Now that the presidency and the Congress are both controlled by the same party, do you expect that Congress and the president will be able to work together to end the gridlock in Washington, or do you think things will be pretty much as they were before because Congress and the president always have differences? 24% 70% 6% President and Congress will be able to work together Things will be pretty much as they were before Not sure
  48. 48. PAGE 48 SO LI D M AJO RI TY O F VO TERS THI NK TRUM P WI LL CHANG E THE WAY THI NG S I N G O VERNM ENT ARE DO NE AND PLURALI TY FEELS I T WI LL BE THE RI G HT TYPE O F CHANG E Source: NBC News/ Wall street Journal Poll, Dec. 12-15, 2016 68% 28% 4% Things in government will change It will be business as usual Not sure/Neither/Both From what you have seen and heard so far, do you think Donald Trump’s presidency will change the way things are done in government, or do you think it will be business as usual under the Trump presidency? 41% 20% 7% 32% Right kind of change Wrong kind of change Not sure Business as Usual/Both/Neither And, do you think Donald Trump’s presidency will bring the right kind of change or the wrong kind of change in the way things are done in government? Note: “Not sure”, “Neither”, and “Both (VOL)” are displayed together
  49. 49. P e r c e p t i o n s o f P o l i c y I s s u e s M o v i n g F o r w a r d PAGE 49
  50. 50. PAGE 50 ECO NO M Y, HEALTH CARE AND I M M I G RATI O N SEEN AS KEY PO LI CY I SSUES FO R NEW G O P G O VERNM ENT Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, Dec. 13-19, 2016 Rank Total Democrats Independents Republicans 1 Economy and Jobs (24%) Economy and Jobs (23%) Economy and Jobs (24%) Immigration (30%) 2 Immigration (20%) Health Care (20%) Health Care (13%) Economy and Jobs (29%) 3 Health Care (19%) Immigration (16%) Immigration (13%) Health Care (26%) 4 Education (7%) Education (8%) Education (10%) Foreign Policy (11%) 5 Foreign Policy (7%) Foreign Policy (4%) Foreign Policy (8%) Education (4%) Which issue would you most like President-elect Donald Trump and the next Congress to act on in 2017? Is there another issue you’d like them to address? (open–end)
  51. 51. PAGE 51 KEEPI NG JO BS FRO M G O I NG O VERSEAS SEEN BY M ANY AS O NE O F THE TO P PRI O RI TI ES FO R TRUM P O N THE ECO NO M Y Source: CNBC poll, Dec. 2-5, 2016 7% 10% 10% 13% 16% 17% 18% 22% 40% Not sure/None/Other Cutting taxes for business Reducing regulations on business Renegotiating trade deals with other countries Cutting taxes for individuals Funding improvements to infrastructure Reducing the deficit Increasing the minimum wage Keeping U.S. jobs from going overseas Which of the following should be Donald Trump’s top one or two priorities when it comes to the economy? *Up to two responses accepted
  52. 52. PAGE 52 M AJO RI TY FAVO R USI NG TAX BREAKS TO KEEP M ANUFACTURI NG JO BS AND FEEL I T I S G O O D I DEA TO CUT BUSI NESS TAXES In general, do you favor or oppose providing tax breaks to corporations that agree to keep U.S. manufacturing jobs from moving to other countries? 69% 27% 4% Favor Oppose Don’t know/ No answer 6% 39% 55% Good idea because it provides an incentive for companies to expand, hire more workers and grow the economy Bad idea because it mostly benefits companies and their shareholders, who make more money by holding on to it rather than hiring more workers and growing the economy Which comes closer to your point of view about the government cutting business taxes? or Good idea Bad idea Not sure/Mixed/ some of both Source: CBS News Poll, Dec. 9-13, 2016Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Dec 12-15, 2016
  53. 53. PAGE 53 ALTHO UG H SLI G HTLY M O RE SAY REG ULATI O N DO ES M O RE HARM THAN G O O D, M AJO RI TY SAY STRI CTER ENVI RO NM ENTAL LAWS WO RTH THE CO STS Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Nov. 30- Dec. 5, 2016 7% 48% 45% Which comes closer to your view — even if neither is exactly right? 34% 59% 7% Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good Both/Neither/DK/Ref (VOL.) Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost Both/Neither/ DK/Ref (VOL.)
  54. 54. PAGE 54 M ANY SAY TO P HEALTH CARE PRI O RI TY SHO ULD BE REDUCI NG CO STS O F HEALTH CARE AND PRESCRI PTI O N DRUG S 35% 35% 37% 45% 61% 67% 33% 30% 21% 38% 28% 26% 9% 9% 7% 9% 6% 3% 18% 20% 31% 5% 3% 2% Decreasing how much the federal government spends on health care over time Decreasing the role of the federal government in health care Repealing the 2010 health care law Dealing with the prescription painkiller addiction epidemic Lowering the cost of prescription drugs Lowering the amount individuals pay for health care Top priority Important but not a top proirity Not too important Should not be done Should each of the following things Donald Trump and the next Congress might do when it comes to health care be a top priority, an important but not a top priority, not too important, or should it not be done? Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, Dec. 13-19, 2016
  55. 55. PAGE 55 PUBLI C SPLI T O N WHETHER TO REPEAL ACA, DI SAG REEM ENT O N TI M ELI NE FO R REPLACEM ENT Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, Dec. 13-19, 2016 47% 28% 20% 5% No, should not vote to repeal Wait to vote to repeal the law until the details of replacement plan have been announced Vote to repeal the law immediately and work out the details of a replacement plan later NET who say lawmakers should vote to repeal 49% Don’t know/Refused Do you think the next Congress should vote to repeal the 2010 health care law, or should they not vote to repeal it? If repeal: Should lawmakers (vote to repeal the law immediately and work out the details of a replacement plan later) OR should lawmakers (wait to vote to repeal the law until the details of a replacement plan have been announced)?
  56. 56. PAGE 56 THE WO RLD FACI NG TRUM P: PUBLI C SEES I SI S, CYBERATTACKS, NO RTH KO REA AS TO P THREATS Source: Pew Research Center, Jan. 4-9, 2017
  57. 57. PAGE 57 HALF THI NK THAT TRUM P WI LL BE TO O FRI ENDLY TO WARDS RUSSI A, M ANY SEE RELATI O NS CHANG I NG Source: Bloomberg News, Dec. 2-5, 2016 Sorted by “Better” Better Worse Not Sure Russia 62% 28% 11% The United Kingdom 60% 28% 12% Israel 56% 34% 10% Germany 52% 33% 14% Cuba 44% 46% 10% China 35% 54% 10% Mexico 30% 62% 9% Iran 19% 70% 11% For each of the following countries, please tell me if you think relations with the U.S. will be better or worse within the next four years. Russia China Israel Mexico Too friendly 50% 9% 16% 1% Too unfriendly 4% 25% 14% 53% Right attitude 40% 49% 51% 39% Don’t know/ No answer 7% 17% 19% 7% Do you believe President-elect Trump has too friendly of an attitude towards [country], too unfriendly of an attitude towards [country], or has about the right attitude towards [country]? Source: Quinnipiac, Jan. 5-9, 2017
  58. 58. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Jan 12-15, 2017 PAGE 58 TRUM P AG ENDA: YEAR O NE’S PO TENTI AL SUCCESSES Absolute Priority For This Year Can Be Delayed Until Next Year Should Not Be Pursued Keeping U.S. jobs from going overseas 78% 16% 5% Reducing the influence of lobbyists and big money in politics 66% 26% 7% Funding infrastructure projects 64% 33% 3% Taking an aggressive position against ISIS 59% 22% 16% Imposing tariffs on countries who attempt to take advantage of trade agreements 57% 31% 10% Appointing a conservative Supreme Court Justice 51% 22% 26% Cutting taxes for individuals 50% 35% 13% Recognizing that all these issues may be important but that not every single one can be a top priority for the President-elect and Congress, for each one please tell me whether you think it should be an absolute priority for the Trump administration and THIS year's Congress, it is something that can be delayed until next year, or something that you think the Trump administration and Congress should not pursue.
  59. 59. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Katie Cissel Greenway (katie@gpg.com) Chris Gallup (cgallup@gpg.com)

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