1. Election 2012:
A Brief Overview and Analysis October 10, 2012

2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Slide
1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3
2. Views of the Candidates..……………………………………………….…….6
3. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….……...10
4. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……15
5. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...23
6. The Debates……………………………………………………………………….27
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3. Political Context
3

4. NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG
TRACK TRENDING DOWN; JOBS IS TOP ISSUE
As of October 9, 2012 Which of the following do you see as the most
important issue facing the country right now?
PROBLEM %
WRONG TRACK 54.7% Unemployment and jobs 43
The federal deficit 14
Health care 11
Gas prices 7
The situation in the
6
Middle East
Taxes 4
RIGHT DIRECTION 38.4% Immigration 3
Terrorism 3
Source: Bloomberg National Poll, September 21-24, 2012
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
4

5. FOLLOWING DEBATE, ROMNEY’S SUPPORTERS FAR
MORE ENGAGED IN THE CAMPAIGN THAN THEY WERE
IN SEPTEMBER
Among Registered Voters 5
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 4-7, 2012

6. Views of the Candidates
6

7. FOLLOWING CONVENTION, AMERICANS NOW
APPROVE OF OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB
PERFORMANCE
Please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President
Obama is doing on this issue…
APPROVE 49.6% Issue
NET NET
APPROVE DISAPPROVE
Standing up for
58% 39%
the middle class
Taxes 51% 46%
DISAPPROVE 47.4% Foreign policy 50% 45%
Medicare 50% 44%
The economy 48% 51%
The federal
budget and 40% 57%
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data , as of Oct. 10 spending
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept. 16-20, 2012 7

8. JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT
PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Obama Averages 49% Job Approval in September
Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election
Presidential Job Approval January March June October
2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ?
2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%
1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%
1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%
1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%
1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%
1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%
1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%
1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%
President’s in red lost re-election
8
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

9. ROMNEY’S POPULARITY SEES IMPROVEMENT,
OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY
Barack Obama Favorable Rating Mitt Romney Favorable Rating
FAVORABLE 51.5% FAVORABLE 46.3%
UNFAVORABLE 45.1% UNFAVORABLE 48.5%
As of October 9, 2012
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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data

10. Battle for the Presidency:
The Horse Race
10

11. FOLLOWING DEBATE, OBAMA’S LEAD OVER
ROMNEY HAS DISAPPEARED
From Sept 26 to Oct 10 A Look Back
Four Years Ago Today
October 10, 2008 %
Obama 49.4
ROMNEY 48.0% McCain 42.8
+3.1 +0.8 Obama +6.6
OBAMA 47.2%
Eight Years Ago Today
October 9, 2008 %
Bush 48.0
Kerry 45.8
Bush +2.2
October 3, 2012
Source: Real Clear Politics
11
Source: RCP Poll Average

12. ROMNEY HAS SLIGHT LEAD AMONG
INDEPENDENTS
AMONG LIKELY VOTERS
Obama Romney
94% 91%
45% 49% 42% 46%
5% 7%
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Note: “Other (vol),” and “Undecided”
12
results are not shown.
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012

13. ROMNEY PULLS EVEN AS “STRONG LEADER”
As I read a list of phrases, tell me if you think each phrase better describes Mitt Romney or
Barack Obama?
Obama Romney Before After
Debate Debate
Before After Before After Before After
Debate Debate Debate Debate Debate Debate 66%
59%
51% 52%
45% 48%
44% 44%
44% 42%
38% 39%
35% 34%
30%
23%
Is a strong leader Is willing to work Is honest and Connects well with
with leaders from truthful ordinary Americans
the other party
Among Registered Voters
13
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012 Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and “No opinion” results are not shown.

14. ROMNEY NOW LEADS ON JOBS, BUDGET DEFICIT
Who would do
June 28 – Jul 9 Sept 12-16 Oct 4-7
better on…
Reducing the Obama 36% 43% 36%
federal budget Romney 50% 46% 51%
deficit R+14 R+3 R+15
Obama 42% 46% 41%
Improving the job
Romney 46% 45% 49%
situation
R+4 O+1 R+8
Obama 48% 48% 43%
Dealing with
Romney 40% 42% 47%
taxes
O+8 O+6 R+4
Obama -- 51% 46%
Dealing with
Romney -- 38% 43%
Medicare
O+13 O+3
Obama 49% 52% 47%
Dealing with
Romney 41% 39% 43%
health care
O+8 O+15 O+4
Among Registered Voters
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Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012 Statistically significant advantages in bold

15. Battleground States
15

16. THE ELECTORAL MAP
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Obama: 251 Toss-Up: 106 Romney: 181 16
Source: Real Clear Politics (as of October 8, 2012)

17. OBAMA LEADS IN FIVE TOSS-UP STATES, ROMNEY
LEADS IN THREE
RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES
States Obama Romney Obama Romney
Colorado 47.4% 47.2% 9 0
Florida 47% 47% 0 29
Iowa 48.6% 45.4% 6 0
Missouri 43.8% 49% 0 10
Nevada 50.3% 45.7% 6 0
North Carolina 47.6% 48.4% 0 15
Ohio 49% 46% 18 0
Virginia 47.8% 47.5% 13 0
Swing State Voters 52 54
Leaning/Likely State Voters 251 181
Total Overall Votes 303 235
17
Source: Real Clear Politics, as of October 9, 2012

18. FLORIDA: WILL IT KEEP US HANGING IN 2012?
2008 Results
29
Obama 50.9%
Electoral Votes McCain 48.4%
Pre-Debate Post-Debate
Obama +.1 Romney +1.3
Obama: 47.3% Romney: 48.1%
Romney: 47.2% Obama: 46.8%
18
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator

19. OHIO: WILL IT BUCK THE TREND AS A SWING
STATE?
2008 Results
18
Obama 51.2%
Electoral Votes McCain 47.2%
Pre-Debate Post-Debate
Obama +3.4 Obama +2.2
Obama: 48.2% Obama: 47.8%
Romney: 44.8% Romney: 45.6%
19
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator

20. VIRGINIA: BLUE AND RED GO HEAD TO HEAD
2008 Results
13
Obama 52.7%
Electoral Votes McCain 46.4%
Pre-Debate Post-Debate
Obama +.7 Romney +.6
Obama: 47.3% Romney: 47.4%
Romney: 46.6% Obama: 46.8%
20
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator

21. NORTH CAROLINA: WILL IT SHOCK US AGAIN?
2008 Results
15
Obama 49.9%
Electoral Votes McCain 49.5%
Pre-Debate Post-Debate
Romney +2.7 Romney +4.2
Romney: 48.5% Romney: 49.4%
Obama: 45.8% Obama: 45.2%
21
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator

22. COLORADO: CAN THEY GET IT RIGHT 4 TIMES IN
A ROW?
2008 Results
9
Obama 53.5%
Electoral Votes McCain 44.9%
Pre-Debate Post-Debate
Obama +1.2 Obama +.8
Obama: 47.6% Obama: 47.5%
Romney: 46.4% Romney: 46.8%
22
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator

23. Battle for Congress
23

24. 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH
Lean
Likely Dem (6) Lean Dem (3) Toss-Up (11) Likely Rep (1)
Rep (0)
ME* (Open) – Republican FL (Nelson) – Democrat AZ (Open) – Republican NE (Open) – Democrat
HI (Open) – Democrat NM (Open) – Democrat CT (Open) – Democrat
MI (Stabenow) – Democrat PA (Casey) – Democrat IN (Open) – Republican
NJ (Menendez) – Democrat MA (Brown) – Republican
WA (Cantwell) – Democrat MO (McCaskill) – Democrat
WV (Manchin) – Democrat MT (Tester) – Democrat
NV (Heller) – Republican
ND (Open) – Democrat
OH (Brown) – Democrat
VA (Open) – Democrat
WI (Open) – Democrat
*Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if 24
he wins the open Maine seat
Source: Real Clear Politics, as of October 9, 2012

25. LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES
(8/20 – 9/19) (5/3-7/11)
(9/16-10/6)
Rehberg : 46% Berg: 49% Baldwin: 49%
Tester: 44% Heitkamp: 44% Thompson: 44%
(9/11-10/2)
ND Murphy: 44%
OR MT
MN McMahon: 41% NH
WI MA
(9/16-10/3) CT Warren:
McCaskill: 46% 47%
NV OH
Akin: 44%
CO Brown:
Heller: 45% MO KY
VA 45%
(9/21-10/7)
Berkley: 43% NC
(9/18-9/27) AZ NM
Brown: 48%GA
Kaine: 49%
Mandel: 43%
(9/27-10/4) Allen: 44%
Flake: 44% (9/24-10/7)
Carmona: 42%
(9/25-10/3)
25
Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of October 9, 2012)

26. VOTERS NOW PREFER THE SAME PARTY TO HAVE
CONTROL OF CONGRESS AND PRESIDENCY
In general, do you think that it is better for the same political party to control both the
Congress and the presidency, so they can work together more closely, or do you think that it
is better to have different political parties controlling Congress and the presidency to prevent
either one from going too far?
80%
70% 64% 67% 67% 62% Better if same party
60% 52% controls Congress
47% 44% 47% 48% and the presidency
50%
40%
43% 41% 41%
30% 39% 39% Better if different
31% parties control
20% 28%
23% 24% Congress and the
10%
presidency
0%
26
Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, September 26-30, 2012

27. The Debates
27

28. DEBATE WATCHERS SAY ROMNEY DID BETTER
Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in
last/Wednesday night’s debate – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?
AMONG DEBATE WATCHERS
100% 97% Romney Obama
90%
80% 72% 70%
70%
60%
49%
50%
39%
40%
30% 20% 19%
20%
10% 2%
0%
All Republicans Independents Democrats
Note: “Both,” “Neither,” and “No 28
opinion” results are not shown.
Source: Gallup Poll, Oct 4-5, 2012

29. UPCOMING DEBATE SCHEDULE
Date Debate Focus
Foreign and
Thurs, Oct 11 Vice Presidential Debate
domestic topics
Town meeting
Tues, Oct 16 Second Presidential Debate
format
Mon, Oct 22 Third Presidential Debate Foreign policy
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Source: Commission on Presidential Debates

30. GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and
quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message
development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor
critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse
audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to
uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging
and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or
David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)
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