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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

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GPG analysis of publicly-released polls with an eye toward the upcoming election.

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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

  1. 1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis November 1, 2016
  2. 2. K E Y TA K E AWAYS Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll Decoder, Real Clear Politics Ø An average of recent polling still has Clinton on top nationally, although the race has tightened in the last week. Ø As close as the election may have gotten, vote preference results a week out are not necessarily predictive of the final result. Mitt Romney was +1 vs. Barack Obama in comparable tracking poll results in 2012, for example, and John Kerry was +1 vs. George W. Bush a week out in 2004. Ø Trump’s margin with independent voters is +7.3, up six points since Friday. Romney won independents by 5. Ø Clinton's lead with female voters is +11.4 across polls. Obama won women by 11 in 2012. Men are +3.3 for Trump. Romney won men by 7. Ø Clinton is overwhelmingly winning non-white voters (+48). But Obama won them even more resoundingly: +62.6. PAGE 2
  3. 3. W H AT T O L O O K F O R O V E R T H E F I N A L W E E K Source: NYT The Upshot PAGE 3 Ø Is there a Trump comeback? § As the race tightens, it will be worth looking at whether Trump has made a breakthrough in Clinton’s firewall – states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Ø Can Clinton build a landslide? § If the next tier of leaning-Republican states – like Missouri, Indiana, Texas, South Carolina or Alaska – start looking like true tossups, that would be a sign of a potential landslide. Ø Can Republicans hold the Senate? § Republicans will probably need to win races in three of these six states to retain control of the chamber: Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Missouri. Ø Can the Democrats put the House in play? § Although it’s very hard to identify a realistic path for the Democrats to get the seats they need, if Hillary Clinton pulls away over the last week, control of the House will loom as a possibility.
  4. 4. B A T T L E F O R T H E P R E S I D E N C Y
  5. 5. C L I N TON E N J OYS L E A D O V E R T R U MP N AT IO NALLY; V E R Y F E W M AY C H A N GE V O T E PAGE 5 LikeCandidate DislikeOpponent LikeCandidate Clinton Trump Spread HuffPost Pollster 48.2% 42.0% Clinton +6.2 Real Clear Politics 47.5% 45.3% Clinton +2.2 Two-way RaceFour-way Race Clinton Trump Spread HuffPost Pollster 45.9% 40.3% Clinton +5.6 FiveThirtyEight 45.3% 41.4% Clinton +3.9 Real Clear Politics 45.3% 43.1% Clinton +2.2 Clinton voters Trump voters Mind made up 94% 93% Might change mind 5% 6%Source: CBS News Poll 10/12-10/16 Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
  6. 6. H O W T H E R A C E H A S S H I F TED N AT ION ALLY Source: Real Clear Politics Averages of 4-way race PAGE 6 LikeCandidate DislikeOpponent DislikeOpponent LikeCandidate 43.1 44.3 44.1 44.3 46.3 44.9 45.3 41.5 40.6 40.9 40.6 39.0 39.9 43.1 Before 1st Debate Before VP Debate Tape Release Before 2nd Debate Before 3rd Debate October 24th November1st CLINTON TRUMP
  7. 7. A L O T C A N H A P P EN O V E R T H E F I N A L W E E K W H E N I T C O M E S T O T H E P O L L S Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll PAGE 7 LikeCandidate DislikeOpponent DislikeOpponent LikeCandidate Election ABC/Post Poll One Week out Tracking Poll Final Estimate Actual Vote 2016: Clinton – Trump 45 – 46 ? ? 2012: Obama – Romney 48 – 49 50 – 47 51 – 47 2008: Obama – McCain 52 – 45 53 – 44 53 – 46 2004: Kerry – Bush 49 – 48 48 – 49 48 – 51 2000: Gore – Bush 45 – 48 45 – 48 48 – 48 1996: Clinton – Dole 54 – 35 51 – 39 49 – 41 1992: Clinton – Bush 41 – 34 44 – 37 43 – 37
  8. 8. R E L ATI VELY W E A K S U P PORT F O R B O T H C L I N TON A N D T R U MP Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 20-25, 2016 PAGE 8 LikeCandidate DislikeOpponent DislikeOpponent LikeCandidate 55% 63% 69% 68% 55% 2000 Gore 2004 Kerry 2008 Obama 2012 Obama 2016 Clinton Democratic candidate 64% 70% 55% 67% 56% 2000 Bush 2004 Bush 2008 McCain 2012 Romney 2016 Trump Republicancandidate % of supporters whostrongly support…
  9. 9. ‘ A N T I -CL INTO N’ V O T E A M O N G T R U MP V O T E RS S TA ND S I N C O N T RAS T T O P R I O R E L E C TIO NS PAGE 9 63% 39% 77% 73% 57% 32% 53% 18% 24% 41% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 64% 71% 64% 57% 45% 30% 22% 30% 39% 51% Among Republican candidatesupporters Among Democratic candidate supporters Would you say your choice is morea vote FOR ____ or AGAINST_____? For DemocratFor RepublicanAgainst Democrat Against Republican Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 20-25, 2016
  10. 10. L O O K I N G A T T H E P R E S I D E N T I A L M A P
  11. 11. PAGE 11 E L E C TOR AL M A P FAV ORAB LE T O WAR D C L I N TON Likely/Leans Clinton (272) Likely/Leans Trump (164) Toss-Up (102) CT 7 O R A K K Y N M M N C O G A N C N H 3 12 7 55 6 4 3 6 11 5 9 3 3 5 2 NH 4 VT 3 3 4 38 DC 3 MD 10 DE 3 NJ 14 RI 4 MA 1129 6 7 10 6 10 6 8 6 9 16 29 9 15 13 11 20 11 10 16 18 20 8 5 ME2 (1) ME1 (1)
  12. 12. S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S O R K Y N M M N C O G A N H FL VA OH PAIA AZ NV (10/21 – 10/28) Trump: 45.0% Clinton: 43.5% (9/20 – 10/26) Trump: 41.7% Clinton: 40.3% (10/17 – 10/30) Clinton: 45.2% Trump: 39.6% (10/23 – 10/30) Clinton: 47.2% Trump: 41.2% Clinton: 47.5% Trump: 42.3% (10/23 – 10/30) Trump: 45.5% Clinton: 44.5% (10/21 – 10/30) (10/17 – 10/30) Trump: 46.8% Clinton: 44.3% Clinton: 45.0% Trump: 44.0% (10/20 – 10/30) NC Clinton: 47.3% Trump: 44.7% (10/20 – 10/30) Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16 PAGE 12 Averages are for Four-way Race
  13. 13. PAGE 13 States Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Arizona 43.5% 45.0% 0 11 Florida 44.5% 45.5% 0 29 Iowa 40.3% 41.7% 0 6 Nevada 45.0% 44.0% 6 0 New Hampshire 45.2% 39.6% 4 0 North Carolina 47.3% 44.7% 15 0 Pennsylvania 47.2% 41.2% 20 0 Ohio 44.3% 46.8% 0 18 Virginia 47.5% 42.3% 13 0 Swing State Voters 58 64 Leaning/Likely State Voters 235 181* Total Overall Votes 293 245 RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORALVOTES C L I N TON L E A DS I N F I V E O F N I N E B AT TL EGRO UND S TATE S *Indications point to Trump winning 1 Electoral vote from Maine which awards its electoral votes proportionally
  14. 14. PAGE 14 H O W S W I N G S TATE S H AV E S H I F TED Pre-First Debate (9/26) Tape Release (10/7) Pre-Final Debate (10/19) Today (11/1) Arizona Trump +3.0 Trump +1.0 Clinton +0.2 Trump +1.5 Florida Clinton +0.5 Clinton +2.4 Clinton +3.6 Trump +1.0 Iowa Trump +5.0 Trump +4.7 Trump +3.7 Trump +1.4 Nevada Trump +2.3 Clinton +1.4 Clinton +4.2 Clinton +1.0 New Hampshire Clinton +5.4 Clinton +5.0 Clinton +3.6 Clinton +5.6 North Carolina Trump +0.8 Clinton +2.6 Clinton +2.6 Clinton +2.6 Ohio Trump +2.0 Trump +1.6 Trump +0.7 Trump +2.5 Pennsylvania Clinton +1.8 Clinton +6.0 Clinton +6.8 Clinton +6.0 Virginia Clinton +6.0 Clinton +7.0 Clinton +8.7 Clinton +5.2 Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16
  15. 15. A N D T H O S E O T H E R R A C E S : S E N A T E & H O U S E
  16. 16. Source: Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, last updated Oct 21st K E Y 2 0 1 6 S E N ATE R A C E S: O P P ORTUN ITY F O R D E M O CRAT S T O R E C A PT URE S E V E RAL S E AT S Lean Dem (2) Pure Toss-Up (6) Lean Rep (1) IL (Kirk- R) v. Duckworth NV (Open- D):Heck (R) v.Cortez Masto (D) FL (Rubio- R) v.Murphy WI (Johnson- R) v.Feingold PA (Toomey- R) v.McGinty IN (Open- R) – Young(R) v.Bayh (D) NH (Ayotte- R) v.Hassan MO (Blunt- R) v.Kander NC (Burr- R) v. Ross PAGE 16 There are five very closeSenate races in whichthe FiveThirtyEightpolls-plus model puts the margin separatingthe two major-party candidateswithin 2 percentage points:Missouri,Nevada,New Hampshire,NorthCarolina,and Pennsylvania. All five ofthese raceshave remained close throughoutOctober,with no signofeither candidate breaking away.Ifthe model perfectly projects all five ofthese races, 2016 would be only the second electionin the past35 years in which morethanthree Senate races hadfinal marginsof2 points or less.
  17. 17. S E L E CT S E N ATE P O L L IN G AV E RA GES O R K Y N M M N C O G A N H AZ FL OH PA WI NV (10/6 – 10/27) Feingold: 50.3% Johnson: 43.5% (10/20 – 10/30) McGinty: 44.8% Toomey: 40.8% Rubio: 49.0% Murphy: 43.4% (10/20 – 10/27) (10/10 – 10/27) Portman: 51.3% Strickland: 36.8% Heck: 45.2% Cortez Masto: 44.8% (10/20 – 10/27) McCain: 48.3% Kirkpatrick: 38.0% (10/2 – 10/28) NC Burr: 46.3% Ross: 45.3% (10/20 – 10/28) Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16 PAGE 17 MO (10/17 – 10/30) Ayotte: 47.2% Hassan: 45.4%Blunt: 45.7% Kander: 44.7% (10/9 – 10/26) IN Bayh: 44.5% Young: 40.8% (10/3 – 10/24)
  18. 18. PAGE 18 STATE DEM REP DEM REP Arizona Kirkpatrick:38.0% McCain (i):48.3% HOLD Florida Murphy:43.4% Rubio (i):49.0% HOLD Illinois Duckworth:43.3% Kirk (i):36.3% PICKUP Indiana Bayh:44.5% Young:40.8% PICKUP Missouri Kander:44.7% Blunt(i):45.7% HOLD Nevada Cortez Masto:44.8% Heck:45.2% PICKUP New Hampshire Hassan:45.4% Ayotte (i):47.2% HOLD North Carolina Ross:45.3% Burr (i):46.3% HOLD Pennsylvania McGinty:44.8% Toomey (i):40.8% PICKUP Ohio Strickland:36.8% Portman (i):51.3% HOLD Wisconsin Feingold:50.3% Johnson(i):43.5% PICKUP Toss-Up /LeaningRaces 4 7 Solid /Likely Races 9 14 NotUp For Election 36 30 Total Senate Make-up 49 51 RCP POLL AVERAGE S E N ATE C O N T ROL C O U LD G O E I T H E R WAY A S W E H E A D I N T O F I N A L W E E K
  19. 19. PAGE 19 R E P U BL ICA N S E N ATE C A N DI DATES P O L L B E T TE R T H A N T R U M P I N K E Y S TAT ES STATE SENATE CANDIDATE TRUMP DIFFERENCE Arizona McCain (i): 48.3% Trump: 45.0% +3.3 Florida Rubio (i): 49.0% Trump: 45.5% +3.5 Illinois Kirk (i): 36.3% Trump: 33.0% +3.3 Nevada Heck: 45.2% Trump: 44.0% +1.2 New Hampshire Ayotte (i): 47.2% Trump: 39.6% +7.6 North Carolina Burr (i): 46.3% Trump: 44.7% +1.6 Pennsylvania Toomey (i): 40.8% Trump: 41.2% -0.4 Ohio Portman (i): 51.3% Trump: 46.8% +4.5 Wisconsin Johnson (i): 43.5% Trump 41.3% +2.2 Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16
  20. 20. Source: NBC / WSJ Survey, October 10-13, 2016 PAGE 20 C O N G RES SIO NAL B A L L OT I S C L O S E, A LT H OUGH M O R E V O T E RS W O U L D V O T E F O R C O N GRE SSI ONA L R E P U BLI CAN S A S A C H E C K O N H I L L ARY A N D D E M O CR ATS If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate in your district or the Republican candidate in your district? 45% 47% 9% Republican candidate Democratic candidate Other / Unsure (vol.) Source: Fox News Poll, October 22-25, 2016 Would you be more likely to vote for…? 40% 53% A Democratic candidatewhowill help Hillary Clinton and Congressional Democrats pass their agenda A Republican candidate who will be a check-and-balance to Hillary Clinton and Congressional Democrats “”Depends,” Neither,” “Other,”and “Not sure” results not shown Thinking  about  the  election  for  U.S.  Congress…
  21. 21. Source: Cook Political Report, as of October 27, 2016 PAGE 21 H O U S E R A C E R AT ING S The Cook Political Report counts just 39 seats out of 435 as competitive. Of the 39 competitive seats, 33 are held by Republicans and six are held by Democrats. That means that if Democrats swept every single competitive seat, they would win the majority. Chances of this happening though, are highly unlikely. Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat Italicized name denotes Freshman member
  22. 22. P R E D I C T I O N S
  23. 23. PAGE 23 W H AT T H E P U N D ITS P R E DI CT
  24. 24. PAGE 24 W H AT T H E V O T E RS P R E D ICT F O R T H E P R E S I DENCY (AP-GfK) Regardless of which candidate you personally want to win, which candidate do you think is more likely to win the presidential race in November? Clinton Trump 74% 25% (Suffolk / USA Today) Just your best guess -- When all the votes are counted this November, who do you think is most likely to be elected president: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? (CNN-ORC) Regardless of who you support and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the presidential election this November? (ABC / WashPost) Regardless of whom you support, who do you expect to win the election for president? Clinton Trump 70% 19% Clinton Trump 68% 27% Clinton Trump 57% 31%
  25. 25. F O U R I N F I V E V O T E R S W I S H T H E E L E C TI ON W E R E O V E R Are you generally enjoying this presidential election, or do you wish it was over? Source: YouGov Poll, October 23-24, 2016 I wish the election were over 81% I’m enjoying the election 12% PAGE 25 Not sure 7%
  26. 26. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Katie Cissel Greenway (katie@gpg.com) Chris Gallup (cgallup@gpg.com)

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