BIG Call - March 2012

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BIG Call - March 2012

  1. 1. The BIG Call March 2012 PA M E L A G O O D F E L L O WCONSUMER INSIGHTS DIRECTOR, BIGINSIGHT™ MARIANNE BICKLE, PH.D. D I R E C T O R , C E N T E R F O R R E TA I L I N G UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA400 W. Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 200, Worthington, OH, 43085 614-846-0146 info@BIGinsight.com
  2. 2. Marianne Bickle, Ph.D.  Chair and Director for the Center for Retailing, University of South Carolina  Author: • Fashion Marketing (published by Fairchild Books) • The Changing American Consumer (in cooperation with the Prosper Foundation)  Regular contributor on the Forbes Prosper Now Blog  Has published and presented in excess of 90 peer referred papers in relation to cross-channel shopping, e-commerce, and student learning paradigms of retailing.  On the Board of Directors on a privately owned fashion company and is a regular retail contributing expert for news corporations.  Fostered international relationships in France, Italy, Korea, and the United Kingdom.  Earned a Ph.D. in Family Ecology, a master’s degree in clothing and textiles and holds a B.S. in retailing of clothing and textiles.© 2012, Prosper®
  3. 3. March 2012 Consumer Survey  March 2012 Results • Consumer Confidence • Practical Purchasing • Financial Forecast • Gas Price Impact • 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans  The Changing American Consumer • A Special Look at Fast Food Trends This report is derived from the following studies: • BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, March 2012 (N = 9242, respondents surveyed 3/6 – 3/13/12) • BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey Trends, March 2007 – March 2012 Disclaimer: BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp. Services are delivered by Prosper and/or a Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”). Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing the statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.© 2012, Prosper®
  4. 4. Consumer ConfidenceConfident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong EconomyAdults 18+ 40%  Highlights: 34.8% • Confidence rises for fifth 35% consecutive month 30% 29.1% • Up nearly 20% from Mar-11 • Highest reading since the very 25% beginning of the recession  Dec-07 = 37.0% 20% 20.6% 15%© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 11-12
  5. 5. Consumer ConfidenceConfident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy 25%Adults 18+ decline 40% 50% from 45% Mar-07 34.8% 35% 40% 35% 29.1% 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 15% 20% 10% 20.6% 46.9% 34.8% 5% 15% 0%© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 07-12
  6. 6. Practical PurchasingIn the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes?Adults 18+ 60%  Highlights: 58% • Spending fizzles as Spring 56% heats up 54% 52% • Practicality increases 10 50% points from February 48%  Highest March reading since 46% the heart of the recession 44% (Mar-09 = 52.7%) 42% • Focus on necessities 40% increases six points from February  Also trending slightly ahead I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases of March readings for the I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT past two years© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 11-12
  7. 7. Financial ForecastWhich of the following financial steps are you planning to take in the next 3 months?Adults 18+ Mar-11 Feb-12 Mar-12  Highlights: • “Save-not-Squander” Pay down debt  Financial plans become more conservative compared to Mar- 11 and Feb-12. Increase savings • Increasing Savings on the rise  Typically see spikes in savings in January (“Holiday Hangover”) Pay with cash more often  Highest non-January reading since Feb-07 (31.1%)  Record number of taxpayers saving their refunds this yearDecrease overall spending • Are consumers bracing for higher gas prices? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 11-12
  8. 8. Pain at the PumpDo you believe the price of gas will be more, the same or less at the end of the month?Adults 18+  Highlights: Less, 3.4% • The answer to this question was Same, 19.7% obvious  Vast majority of consumers predict that gas prices will pump up by the end of the month. • End of March Forecast = $4.08/gal  End of February prediction ($3.69/gal) didn’t veer far from reality ($3.78/gal*) * Source: U.S. Energy Administration More, 76.9% NEW Blog Series! Pain at the Pump: Are $4/Gal Fuel Prices Becoming Part of the New Normal?© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR-12
  9. 9. Pain at the PumpHow have fluctuating gas prices impacted your spending?by Yearly Household Income Less than $50K $50K or More  Highlights: • Under $50K wage earners are more Delayed major purchase affected by prices at the pump, but $50K+ consumers aren’t immune to Reduced dining out impact.  <$50K: 81% Decreased vacation/travel  $50K+: 73%  Adults 18+: 77% I will be driving less • Driving less is most popular way to defray fuel expenses Spending less on groceries  Dining Out, Vacation Travel also prime cutbacks Spending less on clothing 0% 20% 40% 60% NEW Blog Series! Pain at the Pump: Are $4/Gal Fuel Prices Becoming Part of the New Normal?© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR-12
  10. 10. BIG Forward Look: 90 Day SpendingOver the next 90 days (March, April and May), do you plan on spending more, the same or lesson the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year?Adults 18+ Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (Mar-12 compared to Feb-12, Mar-11, and Mar-10) Category: Feb-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Category: Feb-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Children’s up up up Toys/Games up up up Women’s Dress up up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up up Women’s Casual up up up Electronics up up up Men’s Dress up up up Groceries up up up Men’s Casual up up up Home Improvement down up up Shoes up up up Lawn & Garden up up up HBC flat up up Home Furniture down up up Dining Out down up up Home Décor flat up up Sporting Goods up up up Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Feb-12) or years (Mar-11, Mar-10). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 10-12
  11. 11. BIG Forward Look: 90 Day SpendingOver the next 90 days (March, April and May), do you plan on spending more, the same or lesson the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year?Adults 18+ Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (Mar-12 compared to Feb-12, Mar-11, and Mar-10) Category: Feb-12 Mar-11 All categories Mar-10Category: Feb-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Children’s up up up remain Toys/Games up up up Women’s Dress up up up DOWN CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up up Women’s Casual up up up from Electronics up up up Men’s Dress up up pre-downturn up Groceries up up up March 2007 Men’s Casual up up up Home Improvement down up up Shoes up up up Lawn & Garden up up up HBC flat up up Home Furniture down up up Dining Out down up up Home Décor flat up up Sporting Goods up up up Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Feb-12) or years (Mar-11, Mar-10). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, MAR 10-12
  12. 12. National Trend  Increase in consumers’ weight  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: • 34% of adults 20 years+ are obese • 68% of consumers are classified as overweight© 2012, Prosper®
  13. 13. Battle of the sexes: Who is the fast food junky?  Feb 2012 survey of consumers Frequent Fast Food Restaurants who frequently eat fast food Four or More Times per Month • 52.7% men 55.0% • 47.3% women 50.0%  These consumers patronized fast food restaurants four or more times per week 45.0%  New insights reveal consumers 40.0% patterns are changing since Male Female 2005 (Source: The Changing American Consumer)© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB-12
  14. 14. Fast Food Frequency  Percentage of Adults 18+ who eat fast food four or more times a month is up from Feb-11, but trending downward from 2005 Frequent Fast Food Restaurants Four or More Times per Month 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% Adults18+ 35.0% 30.0% Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB 05-12
  15. 15. The troubled economy equalizes fast food patrons  Fast food restaurants are feeling the pinch • Average number of visits in Feb 2012 was 3.5, compared to 4.1 in Feb 2005  Regardless of income, consumers patronize fast food restaurants • The frequency differs only slightly based on income In an average month, how many times do you eat at a FAST FOOD restaurant? <$35,000 $35-74,999 $75,000+ Average # of visits per month 3.0 3.7 4.0© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB-12
  16. 16. Fast Food Frequency by Census Region In an average month, how many times do  Regional preferences you eat at a FAST FOOD restaurant? remain constant Average Times Per Month  The South continues to Midwest 3.6 dominate in fast food Northeast 2.8 (i.e. unhealthy) eating South 3.8  Still, the amount per West 3.6 month patronized is less than desired by the industry© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB-12
  17. 17. Preferred Fast Food Restaurant At what FAST FOOD Restaurant do you eat at most often?  McDonald’s continues Men Women to dominate the market McDonald’s 24.2% 28.1%  However: Wendy’s 7.6% 8.1% • Changing frequency of Burger King 7.9% 5.1% patronage will place Subway 7.8% 7.2% challenges on McDonald’s Taco Bell 5.7% 4.9% and its competitors Arby’s 1.8% 1.9% • New strategies and brand images may be required for the long term© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB-12
  18. 18. Top Reasons for Patronizing Fast Food Restaurants  Issues traditionally thought of with a restaurant (i.e. healthy food, cleanliness) are not as important  Regardless of income, consumers eat at fast food restaurants because of: • Price • Convenience© 2012, Prosper®
  19. 19. Top Reasons for Patronizing Fast Food Restaurants Which of the following are reasons why you eat there most often? (Check all that apply) $35,000- <$35,000 74,999 $75,000+ Price 50.6% 48.7% 40.1% Location 43.5% 43.9% 43.3% Menu Selection 32.3% 34.2% 33.8% Fast Service 37.0% 38.3% 36.6% Quality of Food 31.7% 33.9% 34.7% Value Menu 24.8% 22.6% 16.0% Cleanliness 15.5% 14.7% 15.2% Portion Sizes 12.4% 11.8% 10.2% Healthy Menu Options 11.9% 13.2% 15.8%© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, FEB-12
  20. 20. Snapshot  Fast food industry is experiencing changes in sales volume  Attributes desired are not typical of “eat in” restaurants  Consumers’ income does not play as big of a role as it may originally have© 2012, Prosper®
  21. 21. For More About Americans and Their Fast Food  McDonald’s, Taco Bell and Wendy’s Customers Most Unhappy with Their Health view  Fast food frequenters’ wellbeing tied to personal behavior rather than drive-thru of choice  The Changing American Consumer  Identifies consumer trends regarding the Fast Food Industry (Chapter 6: Make Mine Large)© 2012, Prosper®
  22. 22. The Changing American Consumer  Some of the consumer trends identified in The Changing American Consumer include:  Personal Finance | Chapter 1: America, Land of Plenty?  Home Ownership | Chapter 3: Building the American Castle  Auto Market |Chapter 4: Consumers’ Love Affair with Autos  Online Shopping | Chapter 8: Shopping in Your Boxers, Briefs or Bathrobe  Every chapter includes top five lessons learned© 2012, Prosper®
  23. 23. The Changing American Consumer Vital Insights for  American consumers’ real beliefs, attitudes and American Businesses! behavior revealed by unique methods and analytical software from BIGinsight™  Consumer confidence and purchasing intentions based on focus, in-depth analysis  A comparison of high-earners and regular consumers – with surprising results!  Trends to help businesses target their markets better in the coming decade  Consumers’ attitudes towards: credit, debt mortgages, buying cars and houses, choosing cell phones, fast food and store brand goods, big box retailers, online and TV shopping, social networking, and politics.  American consumers’ long-term economic hopes and fears© 2012, Prosper®
  24. 24. The Changing American Consumer Vital Insights for American consumers’ real beliefs, attitudes and  American Businesses! behavior revealed by unique methods and For moreanalytical software from BIGinsight™ information  Consumer confidence and purchasing intentions or to purchase, please visit: analysis based on focus, in-depth  A comparison of high-earners and regular consumers – with surprising results! www.ChangingConsumer.com/info  Trends to help businesses target their markets better in the coming decade Kindle edition comingattitudes towards: credit, debt  Consumers’ soon! mortgages, buying cars and houses, choosing cell phones, fast food and store brand goods, big box retailers, online and TV shopping, social networking, and politics.  American consumers’ long-term economic hopes and fears© 2012, Prosper®
  25. 25. BIG Consumer “Fair is Fair” but is Square…well…Square? view FYU: Shoes view Blog Generation Gap: Confidence Defined view Is Pinterest Your New Obsession? view It’s Me and Jamie Oliver Against the World view State Superlatives: Dreamiest Destination, Finest Fare, Best Bet for a “Rerun” + more view Generation Gap: Yuck, It’s Tax Season view UPCOMING: The Award for Best Portrayal of an Ideal Model Family Goes to… view© 2012, Prosper®
  26. 26. Contact 400 W. Wilson Bridge Road Suite 200 Worthington, OH 43085 Ph: 614-846-0146 info@BIGinsight.com Dr. Marianne Bickle Center for Retailing, University of South Carolina bickle@hrsm.sc.edu Forbes Prosper Now Blog for complimentary insights, visit: www.BIGinsight.com© 2012, Prosper®

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