Honolulu Mayor                    1                       July 31 – August 2, 2012             Sample Size = 1,098; Margin...
Honolulu Mayor                         2                               July 31 – August 2, 2012                     Sample...
Honolulu Mayor                    3                       July 31 – August 2, 2012             Sample Size = 1,098; Margin...
Honolulu Mayor                    4          July 31 – August 2, 2012Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0%
Honolulu Mayor                    5                       July 31 – August 2, 2012             Sample Size = 1,098; Margin...
Honolulu Mayor                    6                      July 31 – August 2, 2012            Sample Size = 1,098; Margin o...
Honolulu Mayor                    7                  July 31 – August 2, 2012        Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error ...
Honolulu Mayor                    8                      July 31 – August 2, 2012            Sample Size = 1,098; Margin o...
Honolulu Mayor                    9                     July 31 – August 2, 2012           Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of ...
Honolulu Mayor                                  10                                  July 31 – August 2, 2012              ...
Honolulu Mayor                                      11                                 July 31 – August 2, 2012           ...
Honolulu Mayor                                              12                                July 31 – August 2, 2012    ...
Honolulu Mayor                                   13                                  July 31 – August 2, 2012             ...
Honolulu Mayor                                 14                               July 31 – August 2, 2012                  ...
Honolulu Mayor                                  15                                July 31 – August 2, 2012                ...
Honolulu Mayor                                     16                                 July 31 – August 2, 2012            ...
Honolulu Mayor                                   17                                  July 31 – August 2, 2012             ...
Honolulu Mayor                                            18                               July 31 – August 2, 2012       ...
Honolulu Mayor                                   19                                     July 31 – August 2, 2012          ...
Honolulu Mayor                      20                                 July 31 – August 2, 2012                       Samp...
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Civil Beat Poll August 2012 Honolulu Mayor Results

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Civil Beat Poll August 2012 Honolulu Mayor Results

  1. 1. Honolulu Mayor 1 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Vote_ScreenAlready voted 29%Definitely voting 70%Might vote 1%Total 100% MayorCayetano 51%Carlisle 19%Caldwell 24%None 1%Unsure 4%Total 100% Mayor_DecideTwo weeks 18%Past month 20%Month+ 61%Unsure 1%Total 100%
  2. 2. Honolulu Mayor 2 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0%(Cayetano Supporters Only: Sample Size = 561; Margin of Error +/- 4.1%) Cayetano_Second Carlisle 24% Caldwell 23% Neither 47% Unsure 6% Total 100%(Carlisle Supporters Only: Sample Size = 210; Margin of Error +/- 6.8%) Carlisle_Second Cayetano 7% Caldwell 70% Neither 19% Unsure 3% Total 100%(Caldwell Supporters Only: Sample Size = 263; Margin of Error +/- 6.0%) Caldwell_Second Cayetano 12% Carlisle 66% Neither 15% Unsure 7% Total 100% Rail Support 39% Oppose 55% Unsure 6% Total 100%
  3. 3. Honolulu Mayor 3 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% AdsA lot 22%A little 37%None 37%Unsure 4%Total 100% DebatesA lot 40%A little 33%None 23%Unsure 4%Total 100% NewsA lot 42%A little 37%None 17%Unsure 4%Total 100% EndorsementsA lot 10%A little 28%None 58%Unsure 4%Total 100% Own_ResearchA lot 58%A little 28%None 9%Unsure 5%Total 100%
  4. 4. Honolulu Mayor 4 July 31 – August 2, 2012Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0%
  5. 5. Honolulu Mayor 5 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% ObamaApprove strongly 45%Approve somewhat 20%Disapprove somewhat 13%Disapprove strongly 20%Unsure 2%Total 100% Obama_CondensedApprove 65%Disapprove 33%Unsure 2%Total 100%
  6. 6. Honolulu Mayor 6 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% GenderMale 46%Female 54%Total 100% Age18-29 4%30-39 5%40-49 12%50-64 37%65+ 42%Total 100% EthnicityCaucasian 37%Japanese 22%Filipino 8%Hawaiian 10%Chinese 9%Hispanic/Latino 1%Other/Mixed 13%Total 100% PoliticsLiberal/Progressive 21%Moderate 40%Conservative 25%Unsure 14%Total 100% PartyDemocrat 47%Republican 19%Independent 27%Unsure 7%
  7. 7. Honolulu Mayor 7 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0%Total 100%
  8. 8. Honolulu Mayor 8 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% EducationNo degree 3%High School Degree 25%College Degree 41%Graduate Degree 31%Total 100% ReligionCatholic 27%Evangelical 11%Mormon 2%Other Christian 23%Buddhist 10%Other 5%None 20%Total 100% Military_FamilyYes 14%No 86%Total 100% Union_HousehodYes 31%No 69%Total 100%
  9. 9. Honolulu Mayor 9 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Relationship_StatusMarried 63%Civil Partnership 4%Single 13%Divorced/Separated 10%Widowed 11%Total 100% Income_Household$50,000 or less 31%$50,000-$100,000 40%$100,000 or more 29%Total 100% County_CDOahu 1 71%Oahu 2 29%Total 100%
  10. 10. Honolulu Mayor 10 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Vote_Screen Crosstabulation% within Vote_Screen Vote_Screen Already Definitely voted voting Might voteMayor Cayetano 50% 51% 69% Carlisle 22% 18% 13% Caldwell 25% 24% None 2% 1% 6% Unsure 3% 5% 13%Total 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Mayor_Decide Crosstabulation% within Mayor_Decide Mayor_Decide Two weeks Past month Month+ UnsureMayor Cayetano 45% 50% 58% 71% Carlisle 25% 20% 19% 14% Caldwell 30% 29% 23% 14%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor_Decide * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle CaldwellMayor_Decide Two weeks 14% 22% 21% Past month 19% 20% 24% Month+ 66% 57% 55% Unsure 1% 0% 0%Total 100% 100% 100%
  11. 11. Honolulu Mayor 11 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Rail Crosstabulation% within Rail Rail Support Oppose UnsureMayor Cayetano 7% 85% 27% Carlisle 41% 4% 8% Caldwell 48% 6% 30% None 1% 1% 6% Unsure 3% 3% 29%Total 100% 100% 100% Rail * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell None UnsureRail Support 5% 85% 78% 25% 27% Oppose 92% 12% 14% 50% 35% Unsure 3% 2% 7% 25% 38%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  12. 12. Honolulu Mayor 12 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Ads Crosstabulation% within Ads Ads A lot A little None UnsureMayor Cayetano 48% 46% 59% 39% Carlisle 25% 21% 14% 13% Caldwell 24% 28% 21% 13% None 0% 1% 1% 11% Unsure 4% 4% 4% 24%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Debates Crosstabulation% within Debates Debates A lot A little None Unsure TotalMayor Cayetano 52% 51% 52% 37% 51% Carlisle 20% 17% 22% 17% 19% Caldwell 26% 27% 19% 9% 24% None 1% 2% 0% 9% 1% Unsure 2% 3% 6% 28% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * News Crosstabulation% within News News A lot A little None UnsureMayor Cayetano 47% 54% 57% 35% Carlisle 21% 18% 19% 9% Caldwell 29% 22% 19% 12% None 1% 2% 1% 9% Unsure 2% 4% 4% 35%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  13. 13. Honolulu Mayor 13 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Endorsements Crosstabulation% within Endorsements Endorsements A lot A little None UnsureMayor Cayetano 41% 37% 60% 36% Carlisle 18% 22% 18% 7% Caldwell 35% 33% 18% 16% None 1% 2% 1% 11% Unsure 4% 5% 2% 30%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Own_Research Crosstabulation% within Own_Research Own_Research A lot A little None UnsureMayor Cayetano 56% 45% 45% 38% Carlisle 17% 22% 28% 15% Caldwell 24% 28% 19% 11% None 1% 1% 3% 2% Unsure 2% 4% 6% 34%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  14. 14. Honolulu Mayor 14 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Obama Crosstabulation% within Obama Obama Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove strongly somewhat somewhat strongly UnsureMayor Cayetano 39% 48% 64% 73% 40% Carlisle 23% 16% 19% 16% 4% Caldwell 35% 25% 15% 5% 12% None 2% 2% 1% 1% 4% Unsure 1% 8% 2% 5% 40%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Obama * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell None UnsureObama Approve strongly 34% 53% 66% 50% 15% Approve somewhat 19% 17% 21% 25% 38% Disapprove somewhat 16% 13% 8% 6% 6% Disapprove strongly 29% 17% 5% 13% 21% Unsure 2% 0% 1% 6% 21%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  15. 15. Honolulu Mayor 15 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Obama_Condensed Crosstabulation% within Obama_Condensed Obama_Condensed Approve Disapprove UnsureMayor Cayetano 42% 70% 40% Carlisle 21% 17% 4% Caldwell 32% 9% 12% None 2% 1% 4% Unsure 4% 4% 40%Total 100% 100% 100% Obama_Condensed * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell None UnsureObama_Condensed Approve 53% 70% 86% 75% 52% Disapprove 45% 30% 13% 19% 27% Unsure 2% 0% 1% 6% 21%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  16. 16. Honolulu Mayor 16 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleMayor Cayetano 51% 51% Carlisle 20% 18% Caldwell 23% 25% None 2% 1% Unsure 4% 4%Total 100% 100% Mayor * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Mayor Cayetano 33% 46% 55% 49% 54% Carlisle 25% 16% 20% 20% 18% Caldwell 28% 26% 18% 27% 23% None 4% 2% 1% 2% Unsure 15% 8% 5% 4% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative UnsureMayor Cayetano 39% 50% 67% 44% Carlisle 21% 17% 17% 22% Caldwell 36% 28% 10% 22% None 0% 1% 2% 4% Unsure 3% 4% 4% 8%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  17. 17. Honolulu Mayor 17 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Party Crosstabulation% within Party Party Democrat Republican Independent UnsureMayor Cayetano 40% 62% 62% 49% Carlisle 21% 22% 14% 13% Caldwell 33% 12% 19% 20% None 1% 2% 1% 3% Unsure 4% 3% 4% 16%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Party * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell None UnsureParty Democrat 38% 54% 65% 44% 39% Republican 23% 22% 9% 25% 11% Independent 34% 20% 21% 19% 26% Unsure 6% 5% 5% 13% 24%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High School College Graduate No degree Degree Degree DegreeMayor Cayetano 31% 56% 50% 52% Carlisle 10% 20% 19% 17% Caldwell 31% 19% 25% 28% None 7% 2% 2% 0% Unsure 21% 3% 4% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  18. 18. Honolulu Mayor 18 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Ethnicity Ethnicity Hispanic/ Other/ Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Latino MixedMayor Cayetano 56% 46% 53% 51% 41% 75% 48% Carlisle 23% 12% 21% 12% 17% 13% 24% Caldwell 18% 34% 18% 31% 32% 13% 21% None 0% 2% 3% 4% 1% 2% Unsure 3% 6% 4% 1% 9% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Religion Crosstabulation% within Religion Religion Other Catholic Evangelical Mormon Christian Buddhist Other NoneMayor Cayetano 55% 47% 46% 52% 52% 55% 46% Carlisle 20% 25% 19% 16% 10% 14% 21% Caldwell 21% 20% 31% 28% 29% 25% 26% None 2% 1% 5% 2% 1% Unsure 1% 8% 4% 4% 5% 4% 7%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  19. 19. Honolulu Mayor 19 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoMayor Cayetano 53% 51% Carlisle 16% 19% Caldwell 21% 25% None 3% 1% Unsure 7% 4%Total 100% 100% Mayor * Union_Househod Crosstabulation% within Union_Househod Union_Househod Yes NoMayor Cayetano 46% 53% Carlisle 17% 19% Caldwell 32% 22% None 2% 1% Unsure 3% 5%Total 100% 100% Mayor * Relationship_Status Crosstabulation% within Relationship_Status Relationship_Status Civil Married Partnership Single Divorced/Separated WidowedMayor Cayetano 52% 62% 42% 51% 50% Carlisle 19% 27% 15% 16% 21% Caldwell 25% 5% 31% 31% 19% None 0% 4% 1% 5% Unsure 4% 5% 9% 1% 5%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  20. 20. Honolulu Mayor 20 July 31 – August 2, 2012 Sample Size = 1,098; Margin of Error +/- 3.0% Mayor * Income_Household Crosstabulation% within Income_Household Income_Household $50,000 or $50,000- $100,000 less $100,000 or moreMayor Cayetano 51% 52% 46% Carlisle 16% 19% 21% Caldwell 21% 25% 32% None 3% 1% Unsure 8% 3% 1%Total 100% 100% 100% Mayor * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD County_CD Oahu 1 Oahu 2Mayor Cayetano 51% 52% Carlisle 18% 23% Caldwell 26% 19% None 2% 1% Unsure 4% 5%Total 100% 100%

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