Civil Beat Poll October 2012 Honolulu Mayor

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Civil Beat Poll October 2012 Honolulu Mayor

  1. 1. 1 • 886 Likely General Election Voters on Oahu • Sampling Margin of Error +/-3.3% • October 24-26, 2012How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election? Screen Already voted 30% Definitely voting 69% 50/50 1% Total 100%In this election, you will have the chance to vote for Honolulu Mayor. Who are yousupporting—former Hawaii Governor Ben Cayetano, or former Acting Mayor KirkCaldwell? [Name order randomized] Mayor Cayetano 50% Caldwell 45% Unsure 5% Total 100%Are you definitely supporting him, or would you say you’re still just leaning that way? QMayorStrength Percent Definitely 90% Leaning 9% Unsure 1% Total 100%
  2. 2. 2During the campaign, a pro-Rail, Pro-Caldwell political action committee has been airingcommercials accusing Ben Cayetano of allowing “pay-to-play” corruption while he wasHawaii’s governor, and of accepting illegal campaign contributions in the past. Have thesecommercials made you less likely to vote for Ben Cayetano in the election for Mayor? PRP Less likely 15% Not less likely 78% Unsure 7% Total 100%Earlier this month, Senator Inouye officially endorsed Kirk Caldwell in the Mayor’s race.Has Senator Inouye’s endorsement made you more likely to vote for Kirk Caldwell? Inouye More likely 21% Less likely 38% No difference 37% Unsure 4% Total 100%Now a quick question about the Honolulu Rail project—do you generally support or opposeit? Rail Support 42% Oppose 51% Unsure 7% Total 100%
  3. 3. 3How important has the Rail project been in your choice for Mayor—very important,somewhat important, or not important? RailImportant Very important 57% Somewhat important 28% Not important 13% Unsure 2% Total 100%This past August, you had the opportunity to vote in a preliminary contest for HonoluluMayor that included Peter Carlisle, Ben Cayetano, and Kirk Caldwell. What did you do inthat contest? RetroMayor Carlisle 25% Caldwell 23% Cayetano 45% Unsure 8% Total 100%
  4. 4. 4Demographics for Oahu County_CD Oahu_1 73% Oahu_2 27% Total 100% Gender Male 45% Female 55% Total 100% Age 18-29 5% 30-39 6% 40-49 15% 50-64 33% 65+ 41% Total 100% Race_Ethnicity Caucasian 36% Japanese 36% Filipino 5% Hawaiian 5% Chinese 9% Hispanic/Latino 0% Other/Mixed 9% Total 100%
  5. 5. 5 PoliticsLiberal/Progressive 29%Moderate 39%Conservative 21%Unsure 10%Total 100% Party_IDDemocrat 55%Republican 19%Independent 24%Unsure 3%Total 100% EducationNo degree 1%High School Degree 21%College Degree 46%Graduate Degree 32%Total 100% Military_FamilyYes 12%No 88%Total 100% Household_Income$50,000 or less 28%$50,000-$100,000 40%$100,000 or more 32%Total 100%
  6. 6. 6Crosstabs Mayor * Screen Crosstabulation% within Screen Screen Already Definitely voted voting 50/50Mayor Cayetano 54% 48% 50% Caldwell 45% 46% 13% Unsure 1% 6% 38%Total 100% 100% 100%% within MayorStrength MayorStrength Definitely Leaning UnsureMayor Cayetano 52% 60% 40% Caldwell 48% 40% 60%Total 100% 100% 100% MayorStrength * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano CaldwellMayorStrength Definitely 89% 91% Leaning 11% 8% Unsure 0% 1%Total 100% 100%
  7. 7. 7 Mayor * PRP Crosstabulation% within PRP PRP Less Not less likely likely UnsureMayor Cayetano 13% 58% 29% Caldwell 78% 39% 41% Unsure 8% 2% 29%Total 100% 100% 100% PRP * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Caldwell UnsurePRP Less likely 4% 26% 26% Not less likely 92% 68% 35% Unsure 4% 6% 40%Total 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Inouye Crosstabulation% within Inouye Inouye More Less No likely likely difference UnsureMayor Cayetano 9% 77% 43% 53% Caldwell 87% 18% 54% 14% Unsure 4% 4% 3% 33%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Inouye * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Caldwell UnsureInouye More likely 4% 39% 17% Less likely 60% 15% 33% No difference 32% 44% 21% Unsure 5% 1% 29%Total 100% 100% 100%
  8. 8. 8 Mayor * Rail Crosstabulation% within Rail Rail Support Oppose UnsureMayor Cayetano 9% 86% 28% Caldwell 88% 11% 47% Unsure 3% 4% 25%Total 100% 100% 100% Rail * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Caldwell UnsureRail Support 8% 81% 26% Oppose 88% 12% 38% Unsure 4% 7% 36%Total 100% 100% 100% Mayor * RailImportant Crosstabulation% within RailImportant RailImportant Very Not importan Somewhat importan t important t UnsureMayor Cayetano 58% 40% 38% 19% Caldwell 39% 54% 53% 44% Unsure 2% 6% 9% 38%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% RailImportant * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Caldwell UnsureRailImportant Very important 67% 50% 26% Somewhat important 22% 33% 36% Not important 10% 15% 24% Unsure 1% 2% 14%Total 100% 100% 100%
  9. 9. 9 Mayor * RetroMayor Crosstabulation% within RetroMayor RetroMayor Carlisle Caldwell Cayetano UnsureMayor Cayetano 17% 6% 92% 48% Caldwell 78% 90% 6% 37% Unsure 5% 4% 3% 15%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% RetroMayor * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Caldwell UnsureRetroMayor Carlisle 8% 43% 26% Caldwell 3% 45% 20% Cayetano 81% 5% 29% Unsure 8% 7% 26%Total 100% 100% 100%
  10. 10. 10 Mayor * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD County_CD Oahu_1 Oahu_2Mayor Cayetano 49% 51% Caldwell 46% 43% Unsure 5% 6%Total 100% 100% Mayor * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleMayor Cayetano 55% 47% Caldwell 42% 47% Unsure 3% 6%Total 100% 100% Mayor * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Mayor Cayetano 43% 42% 58% 48% 52% Caldwell 53% 53% 31% 49% 45% Unsure 5% 4% 11% 3% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/MixedMayor Cayetano 61% 39% 57% 57% 54% 33% 44% Caldwell 36% 57% 29% 41% 38% 67% 51% Unsure 4% 3% 14% 3% 7% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  11. 11. 11 Mayor * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e UnsureMayor Cayetano 36% 51% 68% 49% Caldwell 58% 46% 30% 41% Unsure 6% 3% 1% 11%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Party_ID Crosstabulation% within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t UnsureMayor Cayetano 38% 68% 66% 58% Caldwell 58% 29% 31% 26% Unsure 5% 4% 3% 16%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  12. 12. 12 Mayor * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree DegreeMayor Cayetano 33% 56% 53% 43% Caldwell 33% 39% 42% 54% Unsure 33% 4% 5% 3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Mayor * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoMayor Cayetano 53% 50% Caldwell 43% 46% Unsure 4% 4%Total 100% 100% Mayor * Household_Income Crosstabulation% within Household_Income Household_Income $50,000 $50,000- $100,000 or less $100,000 or moreMayor Cayetano 59% 46% 49% Caldwell 34% 50% 48% Unsure 7% 4% 3%Total 100% 100% 100%

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