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National survey of American electorate, n=1000, 3.1% margin of error    National survey of Latino electorate, n=1000, 3.1%...
Obama                 51%      Romney         42%    Undecided   7%      Obama                49%         Cain        43% ...
Obama                         67%      Romney                 24%    Undecided   9%      Obama                        65% ...
                                                                                      	      90%    80%    70%            ...
     25%                                  23%                                                          National Electorate...
     50%                                     44%                                     43%    45%          39%              ...
     60%    55%                                                         53%    50%                         46%            ...
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                                            0%         10%           20%         30%        40%    50%        60%         ...
      60%            54%     50%                       46%     40%     30%     20%                                        ...
                          All Voters   Latinos     80%   74%     70%         65%     60%     50%     40%     30%          ...
Lets say one of the candidates had a plan to improve the economy that     you supported, and on the immigration issue the ...
                                     All Voters       Latinos     70%     60%                                             ...
                                     All Voters       Latinos     80%                76%     70%     60%     50%     46%  ...
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                                                   	                            Support   Oppose     90%                  ...
                              All Voters   Latinos     80%     70%            67%     60%             58%     50%     40% ...
                  Democratic Party   Republican Party     60%                                          53%     50%     40%...
                                                                         Legitimate Concern     80%                       ...
                                                    	             Favorable      Unfavorable     DK/No Opinion            ...
      50%           47%                 45%     45%                                                                       ...
19%       Illegal in all cases                                         15%                                                ...
26%     No legal recognition                                                                 Latinos                      ...
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                                                        	               Bush       Obama   Both    Neither                ...
Latinos       All Voters                                                            25%     People responsible to get thei...
                             All Voters   Latinos     50%                                                      47%     45%...
Latino   National                                                                        42%                Tax Cuts for a...
                                                                         	                 Republicans        Independents...
The Bottom Line for the American               Electorate 1-year Out     •  The President leads his rivals by modest but s...
The Bottom Line for the Hispanic                 Electorate 1-year Out     •  The President enjoys 2-1 margins over his li...
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Univision Poll Results

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Univision Poll Results

  1. 1. 1
  2. 2. National survey of American electorate, n=1000, 3.1% margin of error National survey of Latino electorate, n=1000, 3.1% margin of error MOE 4.4% on split-sampled questions. Field dates, October 21 – November 1, 2011 Telephone survey of registered voters, land lines and cell phones Survey designed and implemented by Latino Decisions2
  3. 3. Obama 51% Romney 42% Undecided 7% Obama 49% Cain 43% Undecided 7% Obama 52% Perry 42% Undecided 6% 33
  4. 4. Obama 67% Romney 24% Undecided 9% Obama 65% Cain 22% Undecided 13% Obama 68% Perry 21% Undecided 11%4
  5. 5.     90% 80% 70% 26% 60% 50% 26% 36% 13% 40% 24% 30% 51% 12% 20% 37% 37% 30% 22% 24% 16% 10% 17% 3% 5% 0% Obama Obama Obama Obama Congress Congress Congress Congress Approval Disapproval Approval Disapproval Approval Disapproval Approval Disapproval 48% 50% 66% 29% 19% 77% 27% 63% National Latino National Latino5
  6. 6.   25% 23% National Electorate 20% 18% Latino Electorate 15% 15% 13% 12% 10% 10% 8% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 2% 2% 0% Romney Perry Cain Paul Bachman Gingrich Huntsman6
  7. 7.   50% 44% 43% 45% 39% 39% 38% 40% 35% 34% 35% 28% 29% 30% Favorable 25% 26% 25% Unfavorable 19% 20% No Opinion/Never Heard 15% 10% 5% 0% Romney Perry Cain Gingrich7
  8. 8.   60% 55% 53% 50% 46% 43% 44% 45% 40% 37% 34% 35% 31% 30% Favorable 27% Unfavorable 25% 23% 21% 21% No Opinion/Never Heard 20% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Romney Perry Cain Gingrich8
  9. 9. 9
  10. 10.   0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Republican 40% 32% 7% 1% Democrat 40% 33% 5% 2% National Other, Undecided, DK 19% Republican 18% 13% 3% 2% Latino Democrat 59% 49% 8% 2% Other, Undecided, DK 23%10
  11. 11.   60% 54% 50% 46% 40% 30% 20% 16% 10% 9% 0% Jobs and Immigration Education Health Care Economy Reform Reform Respondents  allowed  up  to  two  men/ons.  11
  12. 12.   All Voters Latinos 80% 74% 70% 65% 60% 50% 40% 30% 23% 21% 20% 16% 12% 10% 10% 5% 0% Jobs and Immigration Education Health Care Economy Reform Reform12
  13. 13. Lets say one of the candidates had a plan to improve the economy that you supported, and on the immigration issue the candidate said, quote: [half of sample receives each quote] –  illegal immigrants are a threat to America who have committed a crime, we can never support amnesty for illegals –  America is a nation of immigrants, we need to treat immigrants with respect and dignity and help them assimilate into America instead of attacking them end quote. Would that statement make you more likely to support the candidate, less likely to support the candidate, or would you not care what they said about immigration if you agreed with their plan for the economy?13
  14. 14.   All Voters Latinos 70% 60% 59% 50% 41% 40% 30% 25% 19% 20% 14% 15% 10% 0% More likely to support Less likely to support Would not care what they said14
  15. 15.   All Voters Latinos 80% 76% 70% 60% 50% 46% 40% 30% 22% 20% 15% 10% 10% 5% 0% More likely to support Less likely to support Would not care what they said15
  16. 16. 16
  17. 17.     Support Oppose 90% 84% 80% 70% 60% 58% 50% 40% 30% 28% 20% 11% 10% 0% All Voters Latinos17
  18. 18.   All Voters Latinos 80% 70% 67% 60% 58% 50% 40% 30% 25% 20% 14% 13% 14% 10% 0% Path to Citizenship Guestworker program Deport illegal immigrants18
  19. 19.   Democratic Party Republican Party 60% 53% 50% 40% 39% 34% 30% 20% 15% 10% 0% All Voters Latinos19
  20. 20.   Legitimate Concern 80% Using to Block Progress 68% 67% 67% 66% 70% 62% 62% 58% 58% 60% 50% 40% 31% 29% 30% 24% 22% 20% 20% 17% 17% 13% 10% 0% All All Republicans Republicans Democrats Democrats Independents Independents National Sample   Latinos  20
  21. 21.     Favorable Unfavorable DK/No Opinion Support Oppose DK/No Opinion 45% 40% 60% 55% 38% 38% 40% 36% 50% 47% 35% 30% 40% 35% 24% 24% 25% 30% 20% 22% 23% 15% 20% 18% 10% 10% 5% 0% 0% National Latino National Latino21
  22. 22.   50% 47% 45% 45% 42% National 40% Latinos 35% 32% 33% 30% 30% 25% 20% 20% 18% 15% 13% 14% 10% 8% 5% 3% 0% Reaching Out Dont Care Hostile Reaching Out Dont Care Hostile Democratic Party Republican Party22
  23. 23. 19% Illegal in all cases 15% Latinos 35% All voters Only to save the woman 28% 38% Legal in most cases 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%23
  24. 24. 26% No legal recognition Latinos 35% All voters 13% Civil unions 19% 43% Legally Marry 35% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%24
  25. 25. 25
  26. 26.     Bush Obama Both Neither Obama and Democrats Republicans 80% Both Neither 70% 67% 60% 57% 60% 50% 50% 50% 42% 43% 40% 33% 40% 30% 30% 24% 19% 20% 20% 7% 8% 7% 5% 10% 10% 10% 10% 2% 2% 0% 0% National Latino National Latino26
  27. 27. Latinos All Voters 25% People responsible to get their own 43% 60% Government should ensure access 42% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%27
  28. 28.   All Voters Latinos 50% 47% 45% 44% 40% 39% 35% 30% 29% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Repeal 2010 Health Care Keep it as law28
  29. 29. Latino National 42% Tax Cuts for all 44% 50% Tax Cuts only under $250k 48% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%29
  30. 30.     Republicans Independents Democrats Republicans Independents Democrats 60% 60% 53% 49% 50% 50% 47% 50% 47% 39% 40% 40% 30% 30% 31% 29% 29% 30% 26% 25% 30% 27% 22% 20% 20% 20% 17% 15% 10% 10% 0% 0% More Enthusiastic in No Difference More Enthusiastic in More Enthusiastic in No Difference More Enthusiastic in 2012 2008 2012 200830
  31. 31. The Bottom Line for the American Electorate 1-year Out •  The President leads his rivals by modest but statistically meaningful margins; •  Moreover, the GOP candidates face signi cant hurdles in favorability/unfavorability; •  The Enthusiasm Gap signi cantly favors Republicans; •  The President struggles nationally on support for health reform and trust in him to x the economy; •  But the Democrats have closed the generic House vote to even, and the public is dissatis ed with the GOP Congress.31
  32. 32. The Bottom Line for the Hispanic Electorate 1-year Out •  The President enjoys 2-1 margins over his likely opponents among Latino registered voters; •  GOP candidates are neither well-known nor well-liked: –  GOP has signi cant room to improve Latino outreach; •  Hispanic policy preferences solidly Democratic as well: –  Even on social issues, Latino social conservatism is eroding or altogether missing; •  Immigration sentiments nationally are far more favorable to Latino positions than widely understood: –  But are often drowned out by a passionate minority.32

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