Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

GPG Public Opinion Landscape (March 2018)

370 views

Published on

In this latest public opinion landscape, GPG's Research and Insights team look at tax reform, DACA, gun control, and the Russia Investigation, as well as a look ahead to the 2018 midterms.

Published in: News & Politics
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

GPG Public Opinion Landscape (March 2018)

  1. 1. M a r c h 6 , 2 0 1 8 Public Opinion Landscape
  2. 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide Number Trump Approval Ratings (January 2017 – March 2018) 3 The 115th Congress 6 Current Issues: Gun Control 12 The Russia Investigation 15 A Look Ahead: The 2018 Midterms 19 A Look Ahead: Redistricting 33 Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 20182
  3. 3. Trump Approval Ratings
  4. 4. President Trump approval ratings over time Disapproval is 8 points higher than Inauguration Day. Source: Gallup, February 8, 2017-March 4, 2018, n=1500 Adults Daily (http://news.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx) 45 40 43 38 42 38 41 37 35 33 38 39 36 40 37 39 47 54 51 57 52 56 54 58 60 55 58 62 56 60 55 59 57 59 55 2017 Jan 20-29 2017 Apr 3-9 2017 Jun 12-18 2017 Aug 21-27 2017 Oct 30-Nov 5 2018 Jan 8-14 39% approve Mar. 4, 2018 47% disapprove 45% approve Jan. 20, 2017 55% disapprove Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 20184
  5. 5. 89 88 81 87 87 84 87 82 87 82 78 82 78 83 78 82 77 87 81 87 81 90 86 85 42 35 39 33 36 40 31 37 31 36 31 29 30 31 35 31 33 35 31 34 31 35 31 33 36 30 34 13 8 11 7 10 6 10 12 6 9 6 8 5 9 5 7 5 7 6 9 8 2017 Jan 20-29 2017 Apr 3-9 2017 Jun 12-18 2017 Aug 21-27 2017 Oct 30-Nov 5 2018 Jan 15-21 Republicans Independents Democrats Trump’s approval rating among Republicans has remained high throughout his first year His ap pr ov al r at ing am ong I ndependent s and Dem oc r at s has r em ained lower. Source: Gallup, February 8, 2017-February 16, 2018, 2018, n=1500 Adults Daily (http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx) Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 20185
  6. 6. The 115th United States Congress 6
  7. 7. A strong plurality of voters disapprove of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 Half b eliev e t hat t heir t ax es will go up under t he new plan. 13% 13% 27% 12% 35% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Don’t know Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Tax Bill Approval 47% disapprove 26% approve Personal Taxes 50% 14% 25% 12% Go up Go down Stay the same Don't know Source: Monmouth University, December 18, 2017 (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_121817/) Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 20187
  8. 8. Almost half of Republicans believe the new tax plan will help the middle class Dem o c r at s and I ndependent s believ e t he plan will benef it t he wea lt hy. 13% 3% 21% 63% 21% 5% 46% 28% 7% 2% 6% 85% Unsure The Poor The Middle Class The Wealthy Democrats Republicans Independents Source: Marist, December 4-7, 2017, n=1,267 adults nationally (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us171204_KoC/Marist%20Poll%20National%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_December%202017.pdf#page=3) Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 20188
  9. 9. Three-quarters of Americans favor a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants who came to the U.S. as children Dem o c r at s s t r ongly s uppor t DACA, while Republic ans ar e s plit . 74% 21% 5% Favor Oppose Don't know/Refused Favor Oppose 50%40% 92%6% Total support and opposition Democrats Republicans Source: Pew Research, January 10-14, 2018 (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/19/public-backs-legal-status-for-immigrants-brought-to-u-s-illegally-as-children-but-not-a-bigger-border-wall/) Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 20189
  10. 10. Majority oppose expanding wall along the U.S. border with Mexico Ye t n e a r ly t h r e e- quar t er s of Republic ans s uppor t t he plan. 37% 60% 3% Favor Oppose Don't know/Refused Favor Oppose 24% 72% 92%85% Total support and opposition Democrats Republicans 13% Source: Pew Research, January 10-14, 2018 (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/19/public-backs-legal-status-for-immigrants-brought-to-u-s-illegally-as-children-but-not-a-bigger-border-wall/) Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201810
  11. 11. President Trump released an infrastructure plan on Monday, February 12 The num ber of Am er ic ans lis t ing inf r as t r uc t ur e im pr ov em ent as t he t op pr ior it y f or t he c o u n t r y h a s g r o wn o v e r t h e la s t s e v e n y e a r s . 33% 30% 39% 42% 36% 49%48% 52% 46% 47% 51% 39% 16% 16% 9% 12% 11% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1%2% 1% 1% Jan 5-9, 2011 Jan 11-16, 2012 Jan 9-13, 2013 Jan 15-19, 2014 Jan 7-11, 2015 Jan 4-9, 2017 Jan 10-15, 2018 Top priority Important but lower priority Not too important Should not be done Don't know/Refused Importance of Infrastructure Improvement Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201811 Source: Pew Research Center, January 10-15, 2018, n=1,053 (http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/01/29144651/1-25-18-Priorities-topline-for-release1.pdf)
  12. 12. 12 Current Issues: Gun Control
  13. 13. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201813 Public support of stricter gun laws has solidified over the past year and a half 52 47 54 54 60 60 59 66 31 36 36 36 42 42 50 45 4 5 3 3 4 4 3 3 1-Nov-15 1-Feb-16 1-May-16 1-Aug-16 1-Nov-16 1-Feb-17 1-May-17 1-Aug-17 1-Nov-17 1-Feb-18 Support Oppose Don't know/No Answer Oct 1, 2017: Las Vegas shooting June 12, 2016: Pulse nightclub shooting Nov 5, 2017: Sutherland Springs church shooting Dec 2, 2015: San Bernardino shooting Feb 14, 2018: Parkland school shooting Source: Quinnipiac University, February 20,, 2018 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02202018_ugbw51.pdf/)
  14. 14. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201814 Opinion on methods to end gun violence in schools is split along partisan lines Dem o c r at s s up por t s t r ic t er gun laws while Republic an s f av or s c hool s af et y m eas ur es s uc h as addit ional m et al det ec t or s and ar m ed t eac her s in s c hools . 3% 21% 36% 39% 12% 38% 41% 9% 3% 6% 28% 63% 6% 20% 34% 40% Don't know/No answer Armed teachers Metal detectors Stricter gun laws Total Democrats Republicans Independents Source: Quinnipiac University, February 20,, 2018 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02202018_ugbw51.pdf/)
  15. 15. 15 The Russia Investigation
  16. 16. Three quarters believe that the Russian government tried to influence the 2016 election. Nin e- out - of - t en Dem oc r at s and s light ly m or e t han half of Republic ans s ay Rus s ia at t em pt ed t o inf luenc e t he U. S. elec t ion. 76% 18% 6% Yes/Tried influence No Don't know/No answer 93% 4% 3% Yes/Tried influence No Don't know/No answer 55%35% 10% Yes/Tried influence No Don't know/No answer Source: Quinnipiac University, February 21, 2018 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02212018_uplo98.pdf/ Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201816 Democrats RepublicansTotal
  17. 17. More than half of voters believe that Special Counsel Robert Mueller is conducting a fair investigation into links between the Trump campaign and the Russian government. Thr ee - quar t er s of Dem oc r at s v iew t he inv es t igat ion as f air, c om par ed t o only one - t hir d of Repu blic ans . 56% 28% 16% Yes/Fair No/Not Fair Don't know/No answer 77% 14% 8% Yes/Fair No/Not Fair Don't know/No answer 35% 46% 19% Yes/Fair No/Not Fair Don't know/No answer Source: Quinnipiac University, February 6, 2018 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02062018_uebh42.pdf/) Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201817 Total Democrats Republicans
  18. 18. Just over half believe that President Trump has attempted to derail or obstruct Robert Mueller’s investigation. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201818 56% 12% 86% 53% 37% 83% 11% 41% 7% 5% 3% 6% Independents Republicans Democrats Total Yes No Don't know/No answer Source: Quinnipiac University, February 6, 2018 (https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us02062018_uebh42.pdf/)
  19. 19. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201819 Even amidst the school shooting in Parkland, FL the Russia investigation was the top topic of conversation on Twitter over the past 90 days DACA r e m a in s a d is c u s s io n wit h lim it e d m o m e n t u m , r e g a r d le s s o f ju d ic ia l r u lin g s a n d Cong r e s s ional inac t ion. Term Percentage Tweets Russia Investigation 3.6% 568,008 Gun control 2.63% 416,684 Tax Bill 1.21% 191,370 Border Wall 1.01% 160,851 DACA .023% 3,716 Total 8.4% 1,328,178
  20. 20. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201820 Social media discussions of Congress are largely coastal, with much of the Midwest less engaged.
  21. 21. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201821 Alabama Special Election Jan 12: Trump comments on immigration Jan. 30: State of the Union Jan. 20: Trump’s first year; 2nd annual women’s march Public Discussion on Twitter Sin c e Pr e s id e n t Tr u m p ’s in a u g u r a t io n , d iff e r e n t e v e n t s h a v e c a u s e d p e a k s in d is c u s s io n on Twit t er.
  22. 22. 22 A Look Ahead: The 2018 Midterms
  23. 23. WHAT’S AT STAKE Republicans Democrats 238 193 All 435 seats being contested. Democrats need to win a net of 24 seats from the Republicans to gain control of the House.** U.S. House: U.S. Senate: Republicans Democrats 51 49* 34 seats being contested. Democrats need to win a net of 2 seats from the Republicans to gain control of the Senate. * 47 Democrats + 2 Independents **4 current vacancies ***Alaska Governor Bill Walker is an Independent. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201823 Rs Ds Governor Control*** 33 16 Leg Chamber Control 67 32 36 of 50 Governor races and 87 of 99 State Legislature chambers across the country are being contested. State Governments:
  24. 24. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201824 MIDTERMS: Since 1946, midterm elections during a President’s first term have often resulted in loses in one or both chambers for the President’s party. President Year Senate Seats Lost/Gained House Seats Lost/Gained Shift in power in at least one chamber? Harry Truman (D) 1946 -12 -55 Yes: GOP takes both chambers Dwight Eisenhower (R) 1954 -1 -18 Yes: Democrats take both chambers John Kennedy (D) 1962 +4 -4 No: Democrats retain both chambers Lyndon Johnson (D) 1966 -3 -47 No: Democrats retain both chambers Richard Nixon (R) 1970 +2 -12 No: Democrats retain both chambers Gerald Ford (R) 1974 -3 -43 No: Democrats retain both chambers Jimmy Carter (D) 1978 -3 -11 No: Democrats retain both chambers Ronald Reagan (R) 1982 - -26 No: GOP retains Senate, Democrats retain House George H. W. Bush (R) 1990 -1 -8 No: Democrats retain both chambers Bill Clinton (D) 1994 -8 -52 Yes: GOP takes both chambers George W. Bush (R) 2002 +2 +6 Yes: GOP takes House and retains Senate Barack Obama (D) 2010 -6 -63 Yes: GOP takes House, Democrats retain Senate
  25. 25. 2018 map favors Republicans retaining the Senate Democrats: 49* Republicans: 51 *Two independents caucus with Democrats K Y G A N C Dems in states Trump won: 1. Florida (Nelson) 2. Indiana (Donnelly) 3. Michigan (Stabenow) 4. Missouri (McCaskill) 5. Montana (Tester) 6. North Dakota (Heitkamp) 7. Ohio (Brown) 8. Pennsylvania (Casey) 9. West Virginia (Manchin) 10. Wisconsin (Baldwin) States Democrats plan to target in 2018: : 1. Nevada (Heller) 2. Arizona (Flake) 3. Tennessee (Corker) 4. Texas (Cruz) Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore in Alabama on December 12, 2017 Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201825
  26. 26. Four Republican Senators and one Democratic Senator have announced their retirement. Sen. Jeff Flake (R- Arizona) announced he would not seek re- election to the Senate in 2018 on October 24, 2017. Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tennessee) announced he would not seek re-election to the Senate in 2018 on September 26, 2017. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R- Utah) announced he would not seek re- election to the Senate in 2018 on January 2, 2018. Former Governor and Presidential candidate Mitt Romney has announced that he is running for this seat. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minnesota) resigned from the Senate on December 7, 2017 amid allegations of sexual misconduct. A special election will take place in November 2018 in Minnesota, a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 by 1.5 points. Former Lt. Governor Tina Smith filled the vacated seat on January 2, 2018 and plans to run in the 2018 special election. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201826 Sen. Thad Cochran (R- Mississippi) announced on March 5, 2018 that he will resign April 1, 2018 due to his declining health. There will be a special election for the seat in November 2018.
  27. 27. 31 Republican and 15 Democratic Representatives have announced their retirement from the House of Representatives. Republicans: 19 are retiring outright including Rep. Darrell Issa (CA-49). 12 are running for higher office including Rep. Jim Renacci (OH- 16) and Rep. Martha McSally (AZ-2). Democrats: 7 are retiring outright including Rep. John Conyers (MI-13), who has resigned. 8 are running for higher office including Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-9), Rep. Beto O’Rourke (TX- 16), and Rep. Jacky Rosen (NV-3). Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201827
  28. 28. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201828 HOUSE RETIREMENTS: Republicans seeking higher office Representative District Higher office sought Diane Black Tennessee 6th Candidate for Governor, Bill Haslam (R) is term-limited Luke Messer Indiana 6th Challenging Senator Joe Donnelly (D) Todd Rokita Indiana 4th Challenging Senator Joe Donnelly Steve Pearce New Mexico 2nd Candidate for Governor, Susana Martinez (R) is term-limited Raul Labrador Idaho 1st Candidate for Governor, Butch Otter (R) will not seek re-election Jim Renacci Ohio 16th Challenging Senator Sherrod Brown (D) Lou Barletta Pennsylvania 11th Challenging Senator Bob Casey (D) Kristi Noem South Dakota at-large Candidate for Governor, Dennis Daugaard (R) is term-limited Evan Jenkins West Virginia 3rd Challenging Senator Joe Manchin (D) Ron DeSantis Florida 6th Candidate for Governor, Rick Scott (R) is term-limited Martha McSally Arizona 2nd Candidate for Senate, Jeff Flake (R) will not seek re-election
  29. 29. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201829 HOUSE RETIREMENTS: Republicans retiring outright Representative District Bob Goodlatte Virginia 6th Jeb Hensarling* Texas 5th Rodney Frelinghuysen New Jersey 11th Trey Gowdy South Carolina 4th Darrell Issa California 49th Joe Barton* Texas 6th Lamar Smith Texas 21st Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Florida 27th Charlie Dent Pennsylvania 15th Dave Reichert Washington 8th Pat Tiberi^ Ohio 12th Frank LoBiondo New Jersey 2nd Lynn Jenkins Kansas 2nd Representative District Sam Johnson Texas 3rd John Duncan, Jr. Tennessee 2nd Ted Poe Texas 2nd Dave Trott Michigan 11th Tim Murphy*^ Pennsylvania 18th Trent Franks* Arizona 8th Blake Farenthold* Texas 27th Bill Shuster Pennsylvania 9th Gregg Harper Mississippi 3rd Ed Royce California 39th Patrick Meehan* Pennsylvania 7th Tom Rooney Florida 17th * Indicates leaving in the midst of controversy ^ Indicates resigning before end of term
  30. 30. HOUSE RETIREMENTS: Democrats seeking higher office Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201830 Representative District Higher office sought Kyrsten Sinema Arizona 9th Candidate for Senate seat previously held by Jeff Flake (R) Jared Polis Colorado 2nd Candidate for Governor, John Hickenlooper (D) is term-limited Tim Walz Minnesota 1st Candidate for Governor, Mark Dayton (D) will not seek re-election Beto O’Rourke Texas 16th Candidate for Senate seat currently held by Ted Cruz (R) John Delaney Maryland 6th Running for President in 2020 Jacky Rosen Nevada 3rd Candidate for Senate seat currently held by Dean Heller (R) Colleen Hanabusa Hawaii 1st Candidate for Governor, challenging incumbent David Ige (D) Michelle Lujan Grisham New Mexico 1st Candidate for Governor, Susana Martinez (R) is term-limited
  31. 31. HOUSE RETIREMENTS: Democrats retiring outright Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201831 Representative District Luis Gutierrez Illinois 4th John Conyers*^ Michigan 13th Sander Levin Michigan 9th Bob Brady Pennsylvania 1st Carol Shea-Porter New Hampshire 1st Niki Tsongas Massachusetts 3rd Gene Green Texas 29th Ruben Kihuen* Nevada 4th Rick Nolan Minnesota 8th * Indicates retiring in the midst of controversy ^ Indicates resigning before end of term
  32. 32. Democrats have a slight advantage over Republicans in the 2018 generic ballot. Source: FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/), February 28, 2018; estimate based on polls from 23 different pollsters 42.8% 47.8% 44.1% 47.4% 45.2% 46.2% 47.1% 46.2% 45.5% 46.6% 48.4% 45.8% 49.9% 46.1% 46.4% 38.1% 40.6% 36.9% 39.9% 37.9% 38.4% 39.8% 36.2% 36.0% 39.0% 37.2% 37.7% 37.0% 40.7% 39.1% 15-Apr-17 22-Apr-17 29-Apr-17 6-May-17 13-May-17 20-May-17 27-May-17 3-Jun-17 10-Jun-17 17-Jun-17 24-Jun-17 1-Jul-17 8-Jul-17 15-Jul-17 22-Jul-17 29-Jul-17 5-Aug-17 12-Aug-17 19-Aug-17 26-Aug-17 2-Sep-17 9-Sep-17 16-Sep-17 23-Sep-17 30-Sep-17 7-Oct-17 14-Oct-17 21-Oct-17 28-Oct-17 4-Nov-17 11-Nov-17 18-Nov-17 25-Nov-17 2-Dec-17 9-Dec-17 16-Dec-17 23-Dec-17 30-Dec-17 6-Jan-18 13-Jan-18 20-Jan-18 27-Jan-18 3-Feb-18 10-Feb-18 17-Feb-18 24-Feb-18 Democrats Republicans April 15, 2017 Feb. 28, 2018 D +5 D +7 Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201832
  33. 33. A Look Ahead: Redistricting
  34. 34. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201834 Congressional districts will be redrawn following the 2020 census. I n m os t s t at es , t his will be ov er s een by s t at e legis lat ur es t hat begin t o be elec t ed in 2018. Responsible party Number of states States State legislature 37 Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin Independent commission 4 Arizona, California, Idaho, Washington Politician commission 2 Hawaii, New Jersey Member at large – no redistricting requires 7 Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming
  35. 35. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201835 Congressional districts will be redrawn following the 2020 census. K Y G ARedrawn by state legislature Redrawn by independent commission Redrawn by politician commission N/A
  36. 36. Public Opinion Landscape March 6, 201836 A Tale of Two Maps: Pennsylvania The Pennsylvania State Supreme Court ruled that the 2011 Congressional District map is unconstitutional and must be redrawn due to partisan gerrymandering. The PA delegation currently has 12 Republicans, 5 Democrats and one vacancy (Murphy R-PA-18). With the redrawn map, Democrats would gain 3 seats based on the 2016 vote tallies. However, PA Republican lawmakers have appealed the State Court’s ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court. Source:Philly.com (http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/pennsylvania-gerrymandering-supreme-court-map-congressional-districts-2018-elections-20180219.html)
  37. 37. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM G P G R e s e a r c h G P G h a s a f u l l - s e r v i c e r e s e a r c h t e a m o f f e r i n g a f u l l c o m p l e m e n t o f q u a l i t a t i v e a n d q u a n t i t a t i v e p u b l i c o p i n i o n , a s w e l l a s d i g i t a l , r e s e a r c h s e r v i c e s . W e u s e r e s e a r c h t o i n f o r m m e s s a g e d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n s t r a t e g y , a s w e l l a s t o h e l p c l i e n t s a s s e s s a n d m o n i t o r c r i t i c a l i s s u e s a n d t r a c k t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f s t r a t e g i c c o m m u n i c a t i o n c a m p a i g n s . G P G h a s e x t e n s i v e e x p e r i e n c e c o n d u c t i n g r e s e a r c h o n c o m p l e x i s s u e s a n d p o l i t i c a l t o p i c s w i t h d i v e r s e a u d i e n c e s . W e g o b e y o n d t h e s t a n d a r d Q & A , u s i n g i n n o v a t i v e , p r o j e c t i v e t e c h n i q u e s t o u n c o v e r k e y i n s i g h t s . T h e r e s u l t i s a c t i o n a b l e r e s e a r c h t h a t h e l p s s h a p e o u r c l i e n t s ’ m e s s a g i n g a n d s t r a t e g y . For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Katie Cissel Greenway (katie@gpg.com)

×