3. NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG
TRACK TRENDING DOWN; ECONOMY REMAINS TOP
ISSUE Most important problem:
As of October 25, 2012 PROBLEM %
The economy 37
Unemployment 26
WRONG TRACK 53.4% Federal budget deficit 12
Dissatisfaction with gov’t 9
Health care 7
Lack of money 5
Education 4
Foreign aid/Focus overseas 4
Ethical/moral/family decline 4
RIGHT DIRECTION 40.4%
War/Afghanistan/Iraq 3
Immigration 2
National security 2
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data Care for elderly/Medicare 2
Source: Gallup, Oct 15-16, 2012
3
4. AMERICANS’ VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY HAVE
BECOME MORE POSITIVE
Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
60%
49% 50% 49%
50% 45% 45% 43%
43% 44% Getting
38% 38% better 39%
40% 36% 34%
32% 30% 30% 33% 30% 30% 32% Staying
28%
30% 34% the Same
28% 28% 27% Getting
20% 24% 23% 22% 24% 24% 25%
worse
18%
10% 14%
0%
4
Source: CBS News Poll, October 17-20, 2012
5. OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL CONTINUES TO RISE
Please tell me if you approve or
disapprove of the job that President
Obama is doing on this issue…
APPROVE 49.1% Issue
NET NET
APPROVE DISAPPROVE
Standing up for
57% 41%
the middle class
Medicare 50% 45%
DISAPPROVE 47.9% Taxes 49% 46%
Foreign policy 48% 46%
The economy 48% 51%
The federal
budget and 40% 56%
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data , as of Oct. 24 spending
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Oct 7-11, 2012
5
7. ROMNEY CLEAR WINNER IN 1ST DEBATE; OBAMA
COMES OUT WITH SLIGHT LEAD IN 2ND AND 3rd
Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best
job in the debate: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Obama Romney
67%
46% 48%
39% 40%
25%
1st Debate 2nd Debate 3rd Debate
7
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, Oct 3, 16, and 22, 2012.
8. SMALL OBAMA WIN AMONG 3rd DEBATE WATCHERS;
LARGER WIN AMONG UNCOMMITTED VOTERS
Regardless of which candidate you happen to Who do you think won the debate: Barack
support, who do you think did the best job in Obama or Mitt Romney?
the debate: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Obama Romney Neither/Both
8% lead for Obama 30% lead for Obama
among debate watchers among uncommitted voters
53%
48%
40%
23% 24%
10%
Debate watchers Uncommitted voters
8
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, Oct 22, 2012. Source: CBS News Poll, Oct 22, 2012.
9. ROMNEY PICKS UP VOTES AFTER FIRST DEBATE;
BUT MAJORITY CLAIM DEBATES HAVE NO EFFECT
ON VOTE
Overall, did tonight's debate make you more likely to vote for Barack Obama or more likely
to vote for Mitt Romney, or did tonight's debate not affect how you are likely to vote?
More likely to vote for Obama More likely to vote for Romney No effect on vote
48% 50%
47%
35%
25% 25% 24% 25%
18%
1st Debate 2nd Debate 3rd Debate
9
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, Oct 3, 16, and 22, 2012.
10. ROMNEY’S POPULARITY SEES IMPROVEMENT
AFTER FIRST DEBATE, FAVORABILITY NOW
NET POSITIVE
Barack Obama Favorable Rating Mitt Romney Favorable Rating
FAVORABLE 48.7% FAVORABLE 47.3%
UNFAVORABLE 46.5% UNFAVORABLE 43.8%
As of October 25, 2012
10
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
11. THE RACE HAS NARROWED IN RECENT DAYS
WITH ROMNEY PULLING AHEAD NATIONALLY
From October 1st – 24th
ROMNEY 47.7%
+0.6
OBAMA 47.1%
First Debate Second Debate
Four Years Ago Today: Eight Years Ago Today:
October 25, 2008 % October 25, 2004 %
Obama 50.4 Bush 48.8
McCain 42.4 Kerry 46.0
Obama +8.0 Bush +2.8
11
Source: RCP Poll Average Source: Real Clear Politics
12. AMERICANS GIVE ROMNEY THE EDGE ON THE
ECONOMY, JOB CREATION AND FEDERAL BUDGET
Who do you think would be better when it comes to the following issues: Barack Obama or
Mitt Romney, or do you think that both would be equally good or neither would be good?
Among registered voters
Obama Romney
60%
50% 48%
46% 46% 46% 46%
44% 43%
39% 40%
40% 38% 37%
35%
30% R R R O O O
+13 +7 +6 +1 +8 +9
20%
10%
0%
The federal Jobs and The economy Taxes Foreign policy Medicare
budget deficit unemployment
Note: “Equally good,” and “Neither” 12
results are not shown.
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, Oct 17-20, 2012
14. THE ELECTORAL MAP
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Obama: 201 Toss-Up: 131 Romney: 206 14
Source: Real Clear Politics (as of October 24, 2012)
15. OBAMA LEADS IN SEVEN TOSS-UP STATES,
ROMNEY LEADS IN THREE
RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES
States Obama Romney Obama Romney
Colorado 47.6% 47.8% 0 9
Florida 46.6% 48.4% 0 29
Iowa 48.8% 46.8% 6 0
Michigan 48.6% 43.6% 16 0
Nevada 49.5% 46.8% 6 0
New Hampshire 48.2% 47.4% 4 0
Ohio 47.9% 45.8% 18 0
Pennsylvania 50.0% 45.2% 20 0
Virginia 48.0% 48.0% 0 13
Wisconsin 49.5% 46.8% 10 0
Swing State Voters 80 51
Leaning/Likely State Voters 201 206
Total Overall Votes 281 257
15
Source: Real Clear Politics, as of October 25, 2012
16. FLORIDA: WILL IT KEEP US HANGING IN 2012?
29 2008 Results
Obama 50.9%
Electoral Votes
McCain 48.4%
Pre-1st Debate Post-2st Debate
Obama: 49.0% Romney: 48.3%
Romney: 45.7% Obama: 46.8%
As of Oct 25
Post-3nd Debate
Romney +0.9
Romney: 48.2%
Obama: 47.3%
Post-1st Debate
Romney: 47.7%
Obama: 47.6%
Oct 1 Oct 9 Oct 20
2012 2012 2012
16
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
17. OHIO: WILL IT BUCK THE TREND AS A SWING
STATE?
2008 Results
18 Obama 51.2%
Electoral Votes McCain 47.2%
Pre-1st Debate
Obama: 49.0% Post-2st Debate
Romney: 45.0% Obama: 47.6%
Romney: 46.7% As of Oct 25
Post-3nd Debate
Obama +1.3
Obama: 47.4%
Romney: 46.1%
Post-1st Debate
Obama: 48.5%
Romney: 45.7%
Oct 1 Oct 8 Oct 20
2012 2012 2012 17
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
18. VIRGINIA: BLUE AND RED GO HEAD TO HEAD
2008 Results
13
Obama 52.7%
Electoral Votes McCain 46.4%
Pre-1st Debate Post-2st Debate
Obama: 47.9% Obama: 47.6%
Romney: 46.4% Romney: 47.5% As of Oct 25
Post-3nd Debate
Obama +0.5
Obama: 47.7%
Romney: 47.2%
Post-1st Debate
Obama: 47.7%
Romney: 47.0%
Oct 1 Oct 9 Oct 20
2012 2012 2012 18
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
20. 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH
Likely Dem (7) Lean Dem (3) Toss-Up (10) Lean Rep (0) Likely Rep (1)
NE (Open) –
ME* (Open) – Republican FL (Nelson) – Democrat AZ (Open) – Republican
Democrat
HI (Open) – Democrat OH (Brown) – Democrat CT (Open) – Democrat
MI (Stabenow) – Democrat PA (Casey) – Democrat IN (Open) – Republican
NM (Open) – Democrat MA (Brown) – Republican
NJ (Menendez) – Democrat MO (McCaskill) – Democrat
WA (Cantwell) – Democrat MT (Tester) – Democrat
WV (Manchin) – Democrat NV (Heller) – Republican
ND (Open) – Democrat
VA (Open) – Democrat
WI (Open) – Democrat
20
*Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if
Source: Real Clear Politics, as of October 25, 2012 he wins the open Maine seat
21. LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES
(9/17 – 10/14) (10/9-10/22)
(10/3-10/18)
Rehberg : 46% Berg: 49%
(10/11-10/18) Warren: 50%
Baldwin: 47% Brown: 45%
Tester: 46% Heitkamp: 44% Thompson: 46%
(10/4-10/22)
ND Murphy: 46%
OR MT
MN McMahon: 43% NH
WI MA
Mourdock: 47% CT
Donnelly: 42% PA
NV OH Casey:
(10/10-10/11)
CO IN 48%
Heller: 47% MO VA
KY Smith:
Berkley: 43% NC 42%
(10/11-10/24) AZ NM (10/9-10/21)
GA
Kaine: 47%
Allen: 46%
Flake: 44% McCaskill: 48%
(10/4-10/18)
Carmona: 43% Akin: 43% Brown: 48% FL
(9/25-10/21)
(9/25-10/21) Mandel: 42% Nelson: 47%
(10/17-10/22) Mack: 42%
(10/8-10/18)
Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of October 25, 2012) 21
22. GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and
quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message
development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor
critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse
audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to
uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging
and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or
David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)
22
