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Trump's First 100 Days

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GPG analysis on President Trump’s first 100 days in office.

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Trump's First 100 Days

  1. 1. The Public Opinion Landscape Trump’s First 100 Days May 2017
  2. 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 2 Slide Number Key Findings 3 Approval Ratings 4 Russia 8 Travel Ban 12 Supreme Court Pick 17 Healthcare Overhaul 20 Strike on Syria 27 Relationship with the Media 31 Facts & Figures 35
  3. 3. KEY FINDINGS PAGE 3 B R E A K I N G I T D O W N I N T O W I N S A N D L O S S E S WINS LOSSES The Gorsuch Nomination Health Care Overhaul Strike on Syria The Russia Controversy The Travel Ban Approval Ratings Relationship with the Media In the court of public opinion, here is where Donald Trump has won and lost at least plurality support in his first 100 days as President of the United States.
  4. 4. FIRST 100 DAYS... A QUICK LOOK PAGE 4 Number of Foreign Trips by April 17th Source: New York Times Number of Executive Orders: First 100 Days Trump: 32 Obama: 19 G.W. Bush: 11 Source: Business Insider Trump’s Growth in Twitter Following Date Twitter Followers Growth 1/20/17 20,473,504 4/28/17 28,417,982 + 7,944,478 Source: Trackalytics Obama: 9 Mexico Canada United Kingdom France Germany Czech Republic Turkey Iraq Trinidad & Tobago Bush: 2 Trump: 0 Mexico Canada
  5. 5. Presidential Approval Ratings
  6. 6. PRESIDENT TRUMP APPROVAL OVER TIME PAGE 6 Source: Gallup, January 29-April 19, 2017 Jan. 20 Apr. 22 Approval Disapproval 49% 39% 41% 54% First Day Reading April 22 Reading
  7. 7. TRUMP FIRST PRESIDENT IN LAST 60 YEARS TO ATTAIN A NET DISAPPROVAL IN FIRST 100 DAYS PAGE 7 President Net Approval Net Disapproval TRUMP 42 % 53 % OBAMA 69 % 26 % G.W. BUSH 63 % 32 % CLINTON 59 % 39 % H.W. BUSH 71 % 22 % REAGAN 73 % 19 % CARTER 63 % 18 % FORD 48 % 32 % NIXON 61 % 12 % JOHNSON 77 % 9 % KENNEDY 78 % 6 % EISENHOWER 73 % 10 % Source: ABC/Washington Post, April 17-20, 2017
  8. 8. HISTORIC PARTISAN DIVIDE IN APPROVAL RATINGS FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP PAGE 8 Source: Gallup, January 29-April 19, 2017 9% 87% 78 pts. Approval among Democrats Approval among Republicans Partisan Split Previous Significant Partisan Splits After First Quarter President Partisan Split Obama 60 pts. G.W. Bush 57 pts. Clinton 50 pts. Reagan 40 pts.
  9. 9. Russia
  10. 10. AMERICANS BELIEVE THERE WAS MISCONDUCT, BUT RUSSIA IS LESS IMPORTANT THAN OTHER ISSUES PAGE 10 Source: CBS News, March 25-28 2017 34% 25% 22% 15% Very Likely Somewhat Likely Not Very Likely Not at all Likely Issue Percent Working to repeal the policies of Barack Obama on issues like health care, immigration and environmental regulations 20% Behaving in a way that hurts America’s standing in the world including anti- immigrant policies 16% Being too close to Wall Street firms, including appointing many financial executives to his administration 13% His lack of detailed policy knowledge on important issues 12% Possible connections to Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election 11% Being too impulsive and changing his mind on issues 11% Thinking about the events of the past one hundred days, which one or two of the following has made you feel most NEGATIVE about President Trump? How likely do you think it is that associates of Donald Trump’s campaign had improper communications with agents of the Russian government during the 2016 presidential election? Very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely? Source: NBC/WSJ, April 17-20, 2017
  11. 11. THE PUBLIC SUPPORTS A CONGRESSIONAL INVESTIGATION INTO TRUMP ADVISORS’ RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA PAGE 11 Source: Politico/Morning Consult, Feb. 16-19, 2017 35% 19% 18% 13% Strongly Supprt Somewhat Support Strongly Oppose Somewhat Oppose 63% 33% Support Oppose Would you support or oppose a formal Congressional investigation of President Trump and his Campaigns alleged contact with the Russian government? Do you think there should be a congressional investigation into alleged coordination between the Trump campaign and the Russian government? Source: Fox News, March 12-14, 2017 Do you think that the U.S. Congress should investigate whether or not there was contact between the Russian government and the Trump campaign in 2016? If you do not know enough to have an opinion either way, just say so. 54% 26% 19% Yes No No Opinion Source: NBC/WSJ, April 17-20, 2017
  12. 12. 16% 73% 3% An Invesitagation Led by Congress An Investigation Led by a Non-Partisan Independent Commission Not sure HOWEVER, AMERICANS PREFER AN INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATION AND A SPECIAL PROSECUTOR PAGE 12 65% 32% 8% Independent special prosecutor should be appointed Congress is capable of handling Neither Which comes closer to your view of the investigation into contacts between Russians and Trump campaign associates: an independent special prosecutor should be appointed to handle the investigation, (or) Congress is capable of handling the investigation itself? Source: CNN/ORC, March 1-4, 2017 When it comes to an investigation into Russia’s involvement in the 2016 presidential election would you rather see an investigation led by Congress (OR) an investigation led by a non-partisan independent commission? Source: NBC/WSJ, April 17-20, 2017
  13. 13. Travel Ban
  14. 14. TRUMP’S INITIAL TRAVEL BAN MET A PARTISAN SPLIT IN APPROVAL PAGE 14 Source: CBS News, Feb 1-2, 2017 Approval, 45% Disapproval, 51% 12% 50% 85% 85% 44% 11% GOP IND DEM As you may know, Donald Trump has issued an executive order that temporarily bans people from entering the U.S. who are from the countries of Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. Do you approve or disapprove of this action? Approval – darker shade Disapproval – lighter shade
  15. 15. THE REVISED TRAVEL BAN CONTINUED TO MEET INTENSE PUBLIC SCRUTINY AND DISAPPROVAL PAGE 15 Source: Fox News, March 12-14, 2017 Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s revised executive order on how the United States government will handle immigration, which includes banning all refugees for four months as well as banning citizens from six countries -- Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen -- from entering the United States for three months? Approval, 43% Disapproval, 54% Do you think President Trump’s executive order on immigration makes the United States safer or less safe, or doesn’t it make much of a difference at all? Date Safer Less Safe No Difference 2/11-13 (Initial Ban) 42% 33% 24% 3/12-14 (Revised Ban) 34% 32% 32% Do you think the travel ban is or is not intended to target Muslims? 15% 30% 55% Not sure It is not intended to target Muslims It is intended to target Muslims Source: Fox News, March 12-14, 2017 Source: YouGov March 13-14, 2017
  16. 16. AMERICANS GENERALLY SUPPORT OPENING UP THE COUNTRY’S BORDERS TO REFUGEES, WITH MIXED VIEWS ON LIMITS AND COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN PAGE 16 Source: Ipsos//Reuters, Jan. 30-31, 2017 Statement Agree Disagree The United States should open our borders to refugees of foreign conflicts 46% 42% The United States should limit the number of refugees allowed into the country 66% 26% The United States should open our borders to those fleeing ISIS specifically 49% 40% The Executive Order that President Trump signed blocking refugees and banning people from seven Muslim majority countries from entering the U.S. 48% 41%
  17. 17. REPUBLICANS ARE FAR MORE LIKELY THAN DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS TO SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS PAGE 17 Source: Gallup, Jan. 30-31, 2017 Trump Proposal Republican Support Independent Support Democratic Support Ordering temporary ban on entry into U.S. for most people from seven predominantly Muslim countries 83% 42% 14% Ordering construction of a wall along the southern border with Mexico 80% 39% 8% Indefinitely suspending the United States' Syrian refugee program 71% 35% 10%
  18. 18. Supreme Court Pick
  19. 19. INITIAL PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR GORSUCH NOMINATION RANKED AMONG THE LOWEST IN PAST THREE DECADES PAGE 19 Source: Gallup, Feb. 1-2, 2017 Justice Vote in Favor Not Vote in Favor Year GORSUCH 45% 32% 2017 GARLAND 52% 29% 2016 KAGAN 46% 32% 2010 SOTOMAYOR 54% 28% 2009 ALITO 50% 25% 2005 MIERS 44% 36% 2005 ROBERTS 59% 22% 2005 GINSBURG 53% 14% 1993 THOMAS 52% 17% 1991
  20. 20. AMERICANS ULTIMATELY SUPPORTED AN UP OR DOWN VOTE PAGE 20Source: Quinnipiac, March 30- April 3, 2017 50% 25% 56% 78% 35% 64% 30% 5% Total DEM IND GOP 37% 54% Prevent Allow Do you think the U.S. Senate should confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, or not? Do you think Senate Democrats should allow or prevent a vote on the nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court? Source: NBC News/SurveyMonkey, March 24-28, 2017 Yes – darker shade No – lighter shade
  21. 21. AND SHIED AWAY FROM INVOKING THE NUCLEAR OPTION PAGE 21 8% 26% 47% 86% 69% 43% DEM IND GOP 67% 25% Bad Idea Good Idea Source: Quinnipiac, March 30- April 3, 2017 Do you think it would be a good idea to change this rule and allow a Supreme Court nominee to be confirmed with 51 votes, or do you think it would be a bad idea to change this rule? Good idea – darker shade Bad idea – lighter shade
  22. 22. Healthcare Overhaul
  23. 23. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE ADMINISTRATION, AMERICANS WERE CAUTIOUS TOWARDS ACA REFORM Source: Kaiser Health Family Foundation, Feb. 13-19, 2017 Do you think Congress should vote to repeal the 2010 health care law, or should they not vote to repeal it? Should lawmakers (vote to repeal the law immediately and work out the details of a replacement plan later) OR should lawmakers (wait to vote to repeal the law until the details of a replacement plan have been announced)? 48% 28% 18% Don't Repeal Wait to vote to repeal the law until the details of replacement plan have been announced Vote to repeal the law immediately and work out the details of a replacement plan later If Congress decides to repeal Obamacare, do you think that Congress should repeal Obamacare as soon as possible even if they have not decided on a plan to replace it, or should they wait to repeal Obamacare until they have a plan to replace it? 13% 84% 3% Repeal now Wait to repeal Don't know PAGE 23 Source: Quinnipiac, Jan. 20-25, 2017
  24. 24. AMERICANS LARGELY OPPOSED THE GOP SPONSORED AMERICAN HEALTH CARE ACT TO REPLACE THE ACA Source: Quinnipiac, March 16-21, 2017 There is a Republican health care plan to replace Obamacare, known as the American Health Care Act. Do you approve or disapprove of this Republican health care plan? PAGE 24 17% 56% 26% Approve Disapprove Don't know Do you favor or oppose the Republican health care plan that would replace Obamacare? 34% 54% Favor Oppose If oppose, is that because the Republican plan: 67% 21% Makes too many changes to Obamacare Doesn’t make enough changes to Obamacare Source: Fox News, March 12-14, 2017
  25. 25. AMERICANS FELT THE PROPOSED LAW WOULD RAISE DEDUCTIBLES AND REDUCE THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE COVERED Source: Kaiser Family Health Foundation, March 6-12, 2017 PAGE 25 In general, compared to the current health care law, do you think the replacement plan will provide health insurance with higher deductibles, lower deductibles, or will the cost of deductibles stay about the same? Higher Lower About the Same 41% 25% 23% How about the number of people who have health insurance, do you think the replacement plan will increase the number of people who have health insurance, decrease the number of people who have health insurance, or will the number of people who have health insurance stay about the same? Increase Decrease About the Same 18% 48% 30% In general, compared to the current health care law, do you think the replacement plan will increase or decrease costs for people who don’t get coverage through their employer and who purchase their own insurance, or will their costs stay about the same? Increase Decrease About the Same 48% 23% 25% 41% say deductibles will be HIGHER under GOP plan 48% say coverage will DECREASE under GOP plan
  26. 26. AMERICANS ARE RELIEVED AHCA FAILED Source: CBS News, March 25-28, 2017 PAGE 26 58% 32% 11% Glad it didn't pass Frustrated it didn't pass Don't know How do you feel about the Republican health care plan not passing in Congress? Are you glad or frustrated that the bill didn’t pass? 64% 29% 5% Good Thing Bad Thing Don't know Congress recently debated a bill to repeal and replace the 2010 health care law, but it did not have enough support to pass. In general, do you think it is a good thing or a bad thing that Congress did not pass the bill? Do you feel it is a good thing mainly because you do not want the 2010 health care law repealed, or mainly because you support efforts to repeal and replace the law but you had concerns about the particular bill they were debating? Source: Kaiser Health Family Foundation, March 28 – April 3,2017 Among Those Who Say Good Thing: 31% -- Do not want the health care law repealed 29% -- Support efforts to repeal and replace the law but had concerns about the particular bill they were debating
  27. 27. REPUBLICANS RECEIVED A FAIR SHARE OF THE BLAME FOR THE BILL’S FAILURE PAGE 27 Who do you think is most to blame for the fact that the health care bill did not pass? 33% 28% 24% Source: Kaiser Health Family Foundation, March 28 – April 3,2017 As you may know, Republican Congressional leaders withdrew their healthcare reform bill (also known as the American Health Care Act) on Friday. Who do you think is most responsible for failing to get the bill passed? 6% 8% 17% 18% 23% The Media House Speaker Paul Ryan House Democrats House Republicans President Trump Source: Ipsos/Reuters, March 25-28, 2017 Republicans in Congress President Trump Democrats in Congress
  28. 28. AMERICANS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT NOW AND WANT TRUMP TO MAKE IT WORK PAGE 28 Do you generally approve or disapprove of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, signed into law by President Obama that restructured the U.S. health care system? Source: Kaiser Health Family Foundation, March 28 – April 3,2017 43% 44% 47% 55% 54% 50% 49% 41% April '14 April '15 May '16 April '17 Approve Disapprove Source: Gallup, April 1-2, 2017 Moving forward, do you think President Trump and his administration should do what they can to make the current health care law work or should they do what they can to make the current health care law fail so they can replace it later? 75% 19% Do what they can to make the law work Do what they can to make the law fail so they can replace it later
  29. 29. Strike on Syria
  30. 30. AMERICANS SUPPORTED TRUMP’S DIRECTED ATTACK ON SYRIA, BUT LESS SO THAN MILITARY ACTIONS IN THE PAST PAGE 30 Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. conducting missile strikes against Syria in response to reports that the Syrian government used chemical weapons? 58% 77% 45% 36% 19% 48% Total GOP DEM Source: Pew, April 7-11, 2017 Next, we have a question about the missile airstrikes the United States has launched against Syria. Do you approve or disapprove of this U.S. military action against Syria? Military Action Approval Disapproval 2017 Syria 50% 41% 2014 Iraq and Syria 60% 31% 2011 Libya 47% 37% 2003 Iraq 76% 20% 2001 Afghanistan 90% 5% Source: Gallup, April 7-8, 2017 Approve– darker shade Disapprove – lighter shade
  31. 31. AMERICANS ARE WEARY TOWARDS FURTHER AIRSTRIKES AND OTHER MILITARY ACTION IN SYRIA PAGE 31 Would you support or oppose additional U.S. air strikes against the Syrian government at this time? Source: ABC/WaPo, April 7-9, 2017 35% 54% 11% Support Oppose No opinion If diplomatic efforts are unsuccessful, would you support or oppose additional U.S. military action to remove Assad from power? How confident are you that the U.S. missile strike will end the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons – are you very confident of this, somewhat confident, not so confident, or not confident at all? 35% 41% 19% Support Military Action Oppose Military Action No opinion 25% 69% 6% Very/somewhat confident Not very/somewhat confident No opinion
  32. 32. MAJORITIES ACROSS PARTISAN LINES SAY CONGRESSIONAL AUTHORIZATION NEEDED IN FUTURE PAGE 32 Do you think it is necessary for Congress to approve any further U.S. military action in Syria, or do you think Donald Trump has the authority to take further military action in Syria without getting approval of Congress? Source: CBS News, April 7-9, 2017 69% 84% 69% 53% 25% 12% 25% 39% Total DEM IND GOP Necessary for Congress to approve – darker shade Has the authority to take action without Congressional approval – lighter shade
  33. 33. Relationship with the Media
  34. 34. AMERICANS WANT THE MEDIA TO BE TOUGHER ON PRESIDENT TRUMP, SAY RELATIONSHIP IS BAD PAGE 34 In its coverage of Donald Trump and his administration so far, do you think the news media has been too tough, about right or not tough enough? Source: Gallup, Jan. – March, 2017 36% 32% 31% 24%28% 37% Jan. 30-31, 2017 March 9-29, 2017 Too Tough About Right Not Tough Enough Compared to other administrations, do Donald Trump and the news media have a better relationship, worse relationship, or about the same relationship as past presidents? 4% 81% 12% Better Worse About the Same Source: Monmouth, March 2-5, 2017
  35. 35. AMERICANS PLACE MORE TRUST IN THE NEWS MEDIA THAN IN PRESIDENT TRUMP PAGE 35 Who do you trust more to tell you the truth about important issues: President Trump or the news media? Source: Monmouth, March 2-5, 2017 37% 52% President Trump News Media Source: Quinnipiac, Feb. 16-21, 2017 Who do you trust more: I'm going to read you some names of information sources. For each pair of names I read, please tell me which one you trust more as a source of information, or whether you trust both sources about equally. 28% 67% President Trump Your Favorite News Source Source: McClatchy/Marist, Feb. 15-19, 2017 53% 47% 37% 15% 15% 36% 28% 33% 17% ABC/President Trump MSNBC/President Trump Fox News/President Trump Network About the same President Trump
  36. 36. CONSTITUENTS SAY GET OFF TWITTER, MR. PRESIDENT PAGE 36 Which comes closer to your view: President Trump should stop tweeting so much OR President Trump’s tweets are a good way for him to communicate directly with Americans? Source: USA Today/Suffolk, March 1-5, 2017 Trump should stop tweeting so much, 59% Trump’s tweets are a good way for him to communicate directly, 28% Undecided, 12%
  37. 37. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research G P G h a s a f u l l - s e r v i c e r e s e a r c h t e a m o f f e r i n g a f u l l c o m p l e m e n t o f q u a l i t a t i v e a n d q u a n t i t a t i v e p u b l i c o p i n i o n , a s w e l l a s d i g i t a l , r e s e a r c h s e r v i c e s . W e u s e r e s e a r c h t o i n f o r m m e s s a g e d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n s t r a t e g y, a s w e l l a s t o h e l p c l i e n t s a s s e s s a n d m o n i t o r c r i t i c a l i s s u e s a n d t r a c k t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f s t r a t e g i c c o m m u n i c a t i o n c a m p a i g n s . G P G h a s e x t e n s i v e e x p e r i e n c e c o n d u c t i n g r e s e a r c h o n c o m p l e x i s s u e s a n d p o l i t i c a l t o p i c s w i t h d i v e r s e a u d i e n c e s . W e g o b e y o n d t h e s t a n d a r d Q & A , u s i n g i n n o v a t i v e , p r o j e c t i v e t e c h n i q u e s t o u n c o v e r k e y i n s i g h t s . T h e r e s u l t i s a c t i o n a b l e r e s e a r c h t h a t h e l p s s h a p e o u r c l i e n t s ’ m e s s a g i n g a n d s t r a t e g y. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Katie Cissel Greenway (kcissel@gpg.com)

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