The Civil Beat Poll June 2012 — 2nd Congressional Democrats

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The Civil Beat Poll finds a dead heat between Tulsi Gabbard and Mufi Hannemann in the 2nd Congressional District Democratic Primary.

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The Civil Beat Poll June 2012 — 2nd Congressional Democrats

  1. 1. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 1 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3%--Turning to the Primary for Congress, the major candidates are Attorney BobMarx, Honolulu City Council Member Tulsi Gabbard, former Honolulu Mayor MufiHannemann, and Chief Advocate for the Office of Hawaiian Affairs Esther Kiaaina.If the Democratic primary were held today, who would you vote for? Congress Marx 11% Gabbard 35% Hannemann 31% Kiaaina 10% Unsure 14% Total 100%
  2. 2. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 2 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3% Congress * US Crosstabulation% within US US Right Wrong UnsureCongress Marx 11% 9% 16% Gabbard 31% 46% 16% Hannemann 37% 19% 42% Kiaaina 10% 10% 5% Unsure 11% 16% 21%Total 100% 100% 100% US * Congress Crosstabulation% within Congress Congress Marx Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina UnsureUS Right 64% 53% 72% 61% 50% Wrong 28% 45% 21% 36% 41% Unsure 8% 3% 7% 3% 9%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  3. 3. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 3 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3% Congress * Hawaii Crosstabulation% within Hawaii Hawaii Right Wrong UnsureCongress Marx 13% 7% 16% Gabbard 34% 38% 16% Hannemann 36% 25% 37% Kiaaina 6% 14% 11% Unsure 11% 16% 21%Total 100% 100% 100% Hawaii * Congress Crosstabulation% within Congress Congress Marx Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina UnsureHawaii Right 64% 51% 59% 33% 41% Wrong 28% 47% 34% 61% 50% Unsure 8% 3% 7% 6% 9%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  4. 4. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 4 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3% Congress * Marriage Crosstabulation% within Marriage Marriage Yes No UnsureCongress Marx 15% 6% 3% Gabbard 30% 42% 31% Hannemann 28% 35% 34% Kiaaina 14% 4% 9% Unsure 13% 13% 22%Total 100% 100% 100% Marriage * Congress Crosstabulation% within Congress Congress Marx Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina UnsureMarriage Yes 78% 48% 49% 76% 51% No 19% 44% 41% 15% 34% Unsure 3% 8% 10% 9% 15%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  5. 5. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 5 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3% Congress * Economy Crosstabulation% within Economy Economy Jobs/Economy Debt/SS/Medi UnsureCongress Marx 9% 14% 2% Gabbard 43% 29% 34% Hannemann 24% 37% 30% Kiaaina 14% 6% 11% Unsure 10% 14% 23%Total 100% 100% 100% Economy * Congress Crosstabulation% within Congress Congress Marx Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina UnsureEconomy Jobs/Economy 31% 44% 27% 52% 26% Debt/SS/Medi 67% 43% 60% 33% 52% Unsure 3% 13% 12% 15% 22%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  6. 6. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 6 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3% Congress * Obama Crosstabulation% within Obama Obama Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove strongly somewhat somewhat strongly UnsureCongress Marx 11% 13% 5% 10% Gabbard 31% 41% 38% 46% 40% Hannemann 36% 18% 48% 15% 20% Kiaaina 11% 9% 10% 5% Unsure 11% 20% 0% 24% 40%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%% within Congress Congress Marx Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina UnsureObama Approve strongly 66% 56% 74% 73% 50% Approve somewhat 20% 19% 10% 15% 24% Disapprove somewhat 3% 7% 10% 6% 0% Disapprove strongly 11% 16% 6% 6% 22% Unsure 2% 1% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  7. 7. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 7 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3% Congress * Obama_Condensed Crosstabulation% within Obama_Condensed Obama_Condensed Approve Disapprove UnsureCongress Marx 11% 8% Gabbard 33% 44% 40% Hannemann 33% 26% 20% Kiaaina 11% 6% Unsure 12% 16% 40%Total 100% 100% 100% Obama_Condensed * Congress Crosstabulation% within Congress Congress Marx Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina UnsureObama_Condensed Approve 86% 76% 84% 88% 74% Disapprove 14% 23% 15% 12% 22% Unsure 2% 1% 4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  8. 8. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 8 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3% Congress * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD County_CD Oahu 2 Hawaii Maui KauaiCongress Marx 7% 16% 8% 12% Gabbard 41% 32% 31% 27% Hannemann 31% 27% 26% 47% Kiaaina 9% 14% 7% 8% Unsure 12% 10% 28% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleCongress Marx 16% 6% Gabbard 37% 33% Hannemann 29% 33% Kiaaina 7% 13% Unsure 11% 16%Total 100% 100%
  9. 9. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 9 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3% Congress * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Congress Marx 11% 12% 12% 11% Gabbard 37% 42% 28% 41% 29% Hannemann 32% 38% 26% 24% 39% Kiaaina 11% 21% 9% 11% 6% Unsure 11% 26% 12% 14%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative UnsureCongress Marx 14% 8% 10% 9% Gabbard 30% 39% 48% 26% Hannemann 28% 29% 29% 47% Kiaaina 16% 9% 4% 2% Unsure 12% 14% 10% 17%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  10. 10. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 10 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3% Congress * PartyID Crosstabulation% within PartyID PartyID Democrat Republican Independent UnsureCongress Marx 8% 5% 20% 17% Gabbard 32% 41% 38% 50% Hannemann 37% 32% 17% 17% Kiaaina 10% 9% 12% Unsure 13% 14% 13% 17%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Other/ Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic MixedCongress Marx 11% 9% 13% 3% 17% Gabbard 41% 26% 19% 47% 57% 33% 24% Hannemann 19% 47% 56% 22% 43% 67% 36% Kiaaina 11% 5% 19% 14% Unsure 17% 12% 13% 8% 10%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  11. 11. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 11 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3% Congress * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High School College Graduate No Degree Degree Degree DegreeCongress Marx 11% 12% 11% Gabbard 29% 26% 38% 38% Hannemann 43% 42% 25% 28% Kiaaina 7% 8% 13% 8% Unsure 21% 13% 12% 15%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Congress * Religion Crosstabulation% within Religion Religion Other Evangelic Christia Buddhis Catholic al Mormon n t Shinto Jewish Other NoneCongresMarx 7% 0% 6% 19% 21% 22%s Gabbard 34% 33% 19% 38% 11% 40% 57% 40% Hannemann 43% 26% 69% 24% 56% 40% 14% 14% Kiaaina 8% 4% 14% 7% 14% Unsure 8% 37% 13% 18% 7% 100% 20% 7% 10%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  12. 12. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 12 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3% Congress * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoCongress Marx 4% 13% Gabbard 52% 32% Hannemann 29% 31% Kiaaina 6% 10% Unsure 10% 15%Total 100% 100% Congress * Annual Household Income Crosstabulation% within Annual Household Income Annual Household Income $50,000 or $50,000- $100,000 less $100,000 or MoreCongress Marx 12% 10% 12% Gabbard 30% 36% 41% Hannemann 31% 31% 27% Kiaaina 8% 13% 9% Unsure 19% 11% 11%Total 100% 100% 100%
  13. 13. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 13 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3%Oahu 2nd CD Only: Congress * Mayor Crosstabulation% within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell Unsure Congress Marx 9% 4% 7% 13% Gabbard 45% 44% 33% 40% Hannemann 20% 36% 50% 13% Kiaaina 12% 4% 7% 13% Unsure 14% 12% 3% 20% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%Oahu 2nd CD Only: Congress * Rail Crosstabulation% within Rail Rail Support Oppose Unsure Congress Marx 6% 8% 11% Gabbard 33% 46% 56% Hannemann 46% 23% 11% Kiaaina 6% 10% Unsure 10% 13% 22% Total 100% 100% 100%Oahu 2nd CD Only: Rail * Congress Crosstabulation% within Congress Congress Marx Gabbard Hannemann Kiaaina Unsure Rail Support 30% 29% 56% 27% 29% Oppose 60% 62% 42% 73% 59% Unsure 10% 9% 2% 12% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  14. 14. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 14 340 Likely Democratic Second Congressional District Primary Voters Margin of Error +/- 5.3%2nd CD Only: Congress * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure Congress Marx 13% 9% 0% Gabbard 33% 37% 33% Hannemann 32% 32% 19% Kiaaina 12% 10% Unsure 10% 12% 48% Total 100% 100% 100%

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