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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

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GPG analysis of publicly-released polls with an eye toward the upcoming Democratic convention.

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The Public Opinion Landscape: Election 2016

  1. 1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis July 25, 2016
  2. 2. H E A D I N G I N T O T H E D E M O C R A T I C C O N V E N T I O N
  3. 3. PAGE 3 M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS D E S C RIB E T H E PA R TY A S U N I T E D United 58% Divided 40% Don’t know/No answer 2% Source: CBS News/ NY Times Poll July 8-12, 2016 Would you describe the Democratic Party today as united or divided?
  4. 4. L A R G E M A J O RI TY O F D E M O CR ATS S AY PA R TY W I L L U N I T E B E H I ND C L I NTO N 24% 72% Have disagreements that keepmany from supporting her Unite solidly behind her Among Democratic primary preference % of Democratic/Dem-leaning registered voters who say if Clintonis the party’s nominee, theparty will… 58% 82% Sanders Clinton Source: Pew Research Center Poll June 15-26, 2016 Just more than half of Sanders supporters think the party will solidly unite behind Clinton PAGE 4
  5. 5. A M O N G D E M O CRATS , W E A KE R S U P P ORT F O R C L I NTO N T H A N F O R O T H E R N O M I NEE S S I N C E G O R E 40% 59% 58% 45% 2000 2004 2008 2016 % who say they support their candidate choice ‘strongly’ Source: Pew Research Center Survey 6/15-6/26 PAGE 5
  6. 6. A LT H OUG H A M E RI CANS N O T S AT ISF IED W I T H C H O I CES, M O S T D E M O CRAT S S AT IS FIE D W I T H C L I N TON PAGE 6 Clinton 54% Someone else 45% No opinion 1% Are you satisfied that Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee,or would you have preferredthatthe Democratic Party nominatedsomeoneelse? Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016 Satisfied 40% Dissatisfied 58% No opinion 2% How do you feel about a choice between(Clinton) and (Trump) as the major-party candidatesfor president? Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
  7. 7. PAGE 7 M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S A P P RO VE O F O B A M A’S J O B P E R F OR MANCE , B U T M A N Y T H I N K U S A I S O N W R O NG T R A CK 73% 18% Off on the wrong track Headed in the right direction All in all,do you think thatthings in the nationare generally headed in the rightdirection,or do you feelthatthings are offon the wrong track? Approve 56% Disapprove 42% No opinion 2% Do you approve or disapproveofthe way Obama is handling his job as president? Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14 Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016
  8. 8. N E A R LY H A L F O F A M E R I CANS C R E DIT O B A M A F O R A N I M P R OVE D E C O N OMY Which of these best describes your view of the economy during Barack Obama's presidency? 36% 15% 49% The economy has not really improved The economy has improved, but I do not give Obama much credit for it The economy has improved, and I give Obama some credit for it PAGE 8 Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
  9. 9. A M E R IC ANS WA N T T H E N E X T P R E S IDE NT T O H AV E P O L I TI CAL E X P E RI ENC E, R AT HE R T H A N B E A N O U T S IDE R All else equal,would youlike the nextpresidentto be someonewho has experiencein howthe political system works,or someone from outside the existing politicalestablishment? 4% 41% 55% No opinion Outside establishment Experience in political system PAGE 9 Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
  10. 10. L O O K I N G A T T H E C A N D I D A T E S
  11. 11. M O R E T H A N H A L F O F A M E R I CANS H AV E A N U N FAVO RABL E V I E W O F T R U M P A N D C L I NTO N 54% 52% 54% 55% 57% 60% 60% 57% 54% 59% 55% 55% 54% 66% 58% 64% 60% 57% 64% 62% 63% 64% 60% 59% 59% 57% Clinton Trump Source: Huffington Post Pollster. Polls fielded from 6/9-7/20 PAGE 11
  12. 12. S A M E S H A R E O F V O T E R S S AY C L I NTO N I S A S H O N E S T A S T R U M P, M O R E S AY S H E H A S T E M PER AMEN T A N D J U D GE MENT T O S E R V E 39% 44% 48% 49% 54% 59% 39% 46% 35% 36% 35% 28% Is more honestand trustworthy Would do more to bring change to Washington Better understands the problemsof people like you Better represents your own personalvalues Has better judgment Has a better personality and temperamentto serve effectively as president Clinton Trump Who do you think ___,Clinton or Trump? PAGE 12 Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
  13. 13. A LT H OUG H F E W ER V O T E RS S AY C L I N TON I S S I N C ER E, M O R E T H A N S I X - IN -TE N S AY S H E H A S T H E R I G H T E X P ERI ENC E 41% 38% 41% 44% 64% 49% 39% 42% 52% 32% Is sincere in whatshe says Someoneyou wouldbe proud to have as president Will unite the country and notdivide it Is running for presidentfor the good ofthe country,not for personal gain Has the rightexperience to be president Clinton Trump Thinkingaboutthe following characteristics andqualities,please say whether you think each oneapplies or doesn'tapply to Hillary Clinton or DonaldTrump? Source: CNN/ORC July 13-16, 2016 & July 22-24, 2016 PAGE 13
  14. 14. M O R E V O T ER S S AY C L I NTO N Q U A LI FI ED T O S E R V E A S P R E S I DENT Qualified 37% Qualified 59% Not Qualified 60% Not Qualified 39% Donald Trump Hillary Clinton PAGE 14 Regardless ofwhether or notyou’dvote for [him/her],do you think [Trumpor Clinton]is or is notqualified to serve as president? Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
  15. 15. M A J O RI TIE S O F V O T E R S T H I NK T R UM P I S R A C I A LLY B I A S ED, AND C L I N TON I S T O O W I L L I NG T O B E N D R U L ES Is biased 56% Is not biased 39% No opinion 5% Is not too willing 21% Is too willing 72% No opinion 7% Do you think Hillary Clinton is or is nottoo willing to bend the rules? Do you think DonaldTrump is or is not biased againstwomen andminorities? PAGE 15Source: Washington Post/ABC News Poll July 11-14
  16. 16. M O R E T H A N H A L F S AY E M A I L S C A NDA L I S I M P O RTAN T, A N D H A L F S AY I T I S E V I D EN CE O F P O O R J U D G MEN T Is important 55% Is not important 35% Don't know enough 10% Has the right judgment 33% Does NOT have the right judgment 50% Don’t know enough 15% Not sure 2% Based on what youhaveheard or learned about the FBI investigationinto Hillary Clinton's useof a private email server during her time as Secretary of State, doyou believe she has the right judgment tomake a good president or not? Now, thinking about what youhaveseen, read,or heard about Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server duringher time as Secretary of State,would yousay it IS or it is NOT an important factor in your deciding whether to vote for her as president? PAGE 16 Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016
  17. 17. L O O K I N G A H E A D T O T H E G E N E R A L E L E C T I O N
  18. 18. C L I N TON ’S L E A D S H R I NKS N ATI ONA LLY P O S T R N C C O N V ENT ION ; F E W V O T E RS M AY C H A N GE V O T E Clinton voters Trump voters Yes, mind made up 94% 90% No, might change before election 5% 9% (Amongregisteredvoters) Source: Huffington Post Pollster Average Updated 7/25/16 Source: CBS News Poll 7/22-7/24 Is your mind made up? PAGE 18 Clinton 42.4% Trump 41.7%
  19. 19. P O S T R E P UB LIC AN C O N V ENTI ON B O U N CE F O R T R U MP PAGE 19 Source: CNN/ORC Poll, July 22-24, 2016 42% 37% 13% 5% Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Pre-­‐Convention  (July  13-­‐16) 39% 44% 9% 3% Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Post-­‐Convention  (July  22-­‐24) -3 +7
  20. 20. S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S O R K Y N M M N C O G A N H AZ FL VA OH PAIA WI CO NV (7/5-7/12) Clinton: 44.6% Trump: 36.6% (6/22-7/15) Clinton: 42.3% Trump: 39.3% (6/21-7/10) Clinton: 44.3% Trump: 38.7% (6/22-7/11) Clinton: 45.5% Trump: 42.3% Clinton: 43.8% Trump: 39.0% (6/13-7/12) Clinton: 44.0% Trump: 43.4% (6/25-7/11) (6/22-7/20) Clinton: 43.5% Trump: 42.0% Trump: 44.0% Clinton: 43.5% (5/24-7/10) Clinton: 43.5% Trump: 43.0% (6/20-6/23) NC Clinton: 43.3% Trump: 42.0% (6/20-7/11) Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 7/25/16 PAGE 20 NOTE: No new state polls released post RNC conventionyet
  21. 21. S L I G H TLY M O R E A M E R ICA NS W O U L D P R E FE R A D E M O CR ATIC P R E S I DENT O V E R A R E P U BL ICA N 41% 46% Republican Democrat Now, putting asidefor a moment thequestion of whoeachparty's nomineemight be, what is your preference for theoutcome of this year’s presidential election––that a Democrat be electedpresident or that a Republican beelected president? PAGE 21 Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll July 9-13, 2016
  22. 22. F I R S T C Y C L E T H AT M O R E D E M OC RATS A R E V O T I N G A G A I NST O T H E R C A N D IDAT E R AT HER T H A N F O R T H E IR O W N PAGE 22 64% 59% 68% 72% 48% 30% 37% 25% 22% 50% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 60% 73% 59% 38% 41% 33% 23% 35% 58% 55% Among Republican candidatesupporters Among Democratic candidate supporters Would you say your choice is morea vote FOR ____ or AGAINST_____? For own candidateFor own candidateAgainst other candidate Against other candidate Source: Pew Research Center Survey 6/15-6/26
  23. 23. W H A T ’ S N E X T
  24. 24. PAGE 24 K E Y U P C O MI NG D AT ES I N 2 0 1 6 E L E C TI ON C Y C L E Event Date Democratic National Convention July 25-28 First Presidential Debate September 26 Vice Presidential Debate October 4 Second Presidential Debate October 9 Third Presidential Debate October 16 Election Day November 8 Countdown to Election Day (from July 28): 102 days
  25. 25. PAGE 25 F E W E ST D E M O CRATS O R R E P U BL ICA NS A R E S AT I SF IED W I T H T H E AVA I LA BLE C H O ICE S S I N C E 1 9 9 2 33% 53% 64% 61% 72% 64% 43%40% 44% 69% 72% 47% 52% 40% 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Democrat/ LeanDem Republican/ LeanRep DEM CAND GOP CAND IND CAND CLINTON BUSH PEROT CLINTON DOLE PEROT GORE BUSH KERRY BUSH OBAMA MCCAIN OBAMA ROMNEY CLINTON TRUMP % of registered voters who are very/fairly satisfied with the presidential candidates Source: Pew Research Center
  26. 26. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs. Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)

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