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4QFY2010 Result Update I Oil & Gas
                                                                                                                      April 29, 2010




  Petronet LNG                                                                         ACCUMULATE
                                                                                       CMP                                  Rs79
  Performance Highlights                                                               Target Price                         Rs87
  Petronet LNG reported lower-than-expected set of numbers for 4QFY2010 on             Investment Period                12 Months
  the back of lower re-gasification margins, absence of Spot volumes and
  negligible Tolling volumes. Bottom-line, which registered a decline of 52.3%         Stock Info
  yoy to Rs97cr (Rs204cr), came in lower than our expectation of Rs135cr.
                                                                                       Sector                            Oil & Gas
  Going ahead, we expect the demand for Spot gas to pick up on account of
  rollout of GAIL’s pipeline network in 2HFY2011E. At Rs79, the stock is trading       Market Cap (Rs cr)                   5,903
  at 12.4x FY2011E and 11.7x FY2012E Earnings. We maintain an Accumulate
                                                                                       Beta                                    0.8
  on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs87.
                                                                                       52 WK High / Low                     87/51
  Absence of Spot volumes takes toll on performance: During 4QFY2010,
  Petronet LNG reported 10.1% yoy decline in Revenues to Rs2,385cr                     Avg. Daily Volume                  964168
  (Rs2,655cr), which was much below our expectation on account of absence of           Face Value (Rs)                         10
  costly Spot volumes. Volumes during the quarter stood at 91.8TBTU and were
  much below our expectation of 123TBTUs. Volumes were higher by 11.3% yoy             BSE Sensex                          17,503
  on account of commissioning of additional 2.5MMTPA of gas supplies from              Nifty                                5,254
  Qatar, but were lower 3.7% qoq. Net re-gasification margins during the
  quarter rose by 5.3% qoq to Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs25/mmbtu), but was lower than            Reuters Code                      PLNG.BO
  our expectation on account of adjustment of Rs24cr of forex gain in Other
                                                                                       Bloomberg Code                   PLNG@IN
  Income vis-à-vis Raw Material cost along with increased cost of internal
  consumption of gas (on account of increase in fixed gas price due to increased       Shareholding Pattern (%)
  linkage with JCC Index). Net re-gasification margins on a yoy basis fell 46%
  yoy to Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs48.7/mmbtu). Gross Profit during the quarter fell by a        Promoters                             50.0
  substantial 39.2% yoy to Rs244cr (Rs402cr) and was much lower than our               MF/Banks/Indian FLs                     7.5
  expectation.
                                                                                       FII/NRIs/OCBs                         20.9
  Outlook and Valuation: Petronet LNG’s utility nature of business (stable             Indian Public                         21.6
  Regasification Margins and term contracts), low Regulatory risks (Regasification
  Margins are not currently under PNGRB’s purview), expanding Volumes                  Abs. (%)            3m     1yr          3yr
  (commencement of Tranche-2 of Rasgas contract from January 2010) and
                                                                                       Sensex              7.0    53.5        25.8
  subdued Spot LNG prices (on account of surplus LNG capacities) hold it in
  good stead. At current levels, the stock is available at reasonable valuations of
                                                                                       PLNG              62.5     53.0        73.5
  11.7x FY2012E EPS of Rs6.7. We maintain an Accumulate on the stock, with a
  12-month DCF-based Target Price of Rs87.

   Key Financials
   Y/E March (Rs cr)                 FY2009        FY2010E        FY2011E   FY2012E
   Net Sales                          8,429          10,649        12,872    18,011
   % chg                                 4.5             9.1         17.3      22.7
   Net Profits                          518             405          475       504
   % chg                                 5.0             8.4         24.9      20.5
   OPM (%)                             10.7              7.9          8.2       6.1
   EPS (Rs)                              6.9             5.4          6.3       6.7
   P/E (x)                             11.4            14.6          12.4      11.7   Deepak Pareek
   P/BV (x)                              3.0             2.6          2.3       2.1   Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 340
   RoE (%)                             28.8            19.2          19.9      18.8   E-mail: deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
   RoCE (%)                            20.0            13.9          14.8      13.3
                                                                                      Amit Vora
   EV/Sales (x)                          0.9             0.7          0.7       0.5
                                                                                      Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 322
   EV/EBITDA (x)                         8.0             9.1          7.9       8.2
                                                                                      E-mail: amit.vora@angeltrade.com
   Source: Company, Angel Research



                                                                                                                                     1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                        Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update



                 Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance
                  Y/E March (Rs cr)                                     4QFY10                 4QFY09                    %chg                 FY10                FY09           %chg
                   Net Sales                                                     2,385                2,655         (10.1)             10,649                     8,429              26.3
                   COGS                                                          2,141                2,253              (5.0)                9,665               7,376              31.0
                   other operating expenditure                                      42                    60        (29.9)                     138                 152               (9.2)
                   EBITDA                                                         202                  342          (40.8)                     846                 901               (6.1)
                   EBITDA Margin (%)                                               8.5                 12.9                                     7.9                10.7
                   Other Income                                                     33                    20             66.6                    98                  77              27.9
                   Depreciation                                                     46                    25             80.4                  161                 103               56.9
                   Interest                                                         51                    27             92.5                  184                 101               81.7
                   PBT                                                            139                  310          (55.2)                     599                 774         (22.6)
                   PBT Margin (%)                                                  5.8                 11.7                                     5.6                 9.2
                   Total Tax                                                        41                 106          (60.9)                     195                 256         (23.8)
                   % of PBT                                                       29.8                 34.1                                    32.5                33.0
                   PAT                                                              97                 204          (52.3)                     404                 518         (22.0)
                   PAT Margin (%)                                                  4.1                  7.7                                     3.8                 6.1
                 Source: Company, Angel Research

                 Volume, Top-line declines qoq despite commissioning of new 2.5MMTPA contract:
                 For 4QFY2010, Petronet’s R-LNG Volumes rose 11.3% yoy to 91.8TBTUs
                 (82.5TBTUs), which was much below our expectation of 123TBTUs. Volume growth
                 during the quarter on a yoy basis was supported by commissioning of additional
                 2.5MMTPA of gas supplies from Qatar on January 3, 2010. However, on a qoq
                 basis, volumes declined by 3.7% (95.2TBTU in 3QFY2010) on account of absence
                 of Spot volumes and negligible Tolling volumes due to lack of demand for imported
                 gas on account of lack of gas transmission capacity along with ramp up of domestic
                 gas production from KG-D6. Contractual Volumes during the quarter were higher
                 on a qoq basis at 90.8TBTUs (65TBTUs), while Spot Volumes were nil against
                 19.3TBTU registered in 3QFY2010. Tolling Volumes was also mere 0.97TBTU as
                 against substantial 10.9TBTU registered in 3QFY2010. On the Revenue front, the
                 company reported 10.1% yoy decline in Revenues to Rs2,385cr (Rs2,655cr), which
                 was much below our expectation of Rs3,414cr. Realisation during the quarter
                 registered a substantial decline of 18.6% yoy on account of Rupee appreciation
                 coupled with absence of Spot LNG imports.

                 Exhibit 2: R-LNG Volumes

                     100.0                                                                                                                                                            90.8
                         90.0
                         80.0
                                                   67.5                                                                  67.8                           65.0
                         70.0 63.2 62.4                                64.2 64.0
                                                             60.3                           61.0 58.3 61.0                          60.1 63.0 62.7 62.0
                         60.0                                                                                                                                      51.8
                         50.0
                 TBTUs




                         40.0                                                                                                                            36.1
                                                                                                                                                                            30.2
                         30.0                                                                                                        25.0
                                                                   19.2 19.0 21.6 17.0                                                          19.5
                         20.0                       12.0 13.1 14.5
                                          8.6                                                                              7.2
                         10.0     3.2                                                                                                                                                   1.0
                          0.0
                                 1QFY07

                                          2QFY07

                                                    3QFY07

                                                              4QFY07

                                                                        1QFY08

                                                                                   2QFY08

                                                                                             3QFY08

                                                                                                       4QFY08

                                                                                                                1QFY09

                                                                                                                           2QFY09

                                                                                                                                     3QFY09

                                                                                                                                                4QFY09

                                                                                                                                                         1QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                   2QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                            3QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                                       4QFY10




                                Contracted LNG Sales in TBTUs                           Spot cargo & Tolling volumes sales in TBTUs (Incl. RGPPL Gas)

                 Source: Company, Angel Research




April 29, 2010                                                                                                                                                                             2
Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update


                 Lower-than-expected Net Re-gasification Margins result in below par operating
                 performance: Net re-gasification margins during the quarter rose by 5.3% qoq to
                 Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs25/mmbtu), but was lower than our expectation on account of
                 adjustment of Rs24cr of forex gain in Other Income vis-à-vis Raw Material cost
                 along with increased cost of internal consumption of gas (on account of increase in
                 fixed gas price due to increased linkage with JCC Index). Net re-gasification
                 margins on a yoy basis fell 46% yoy to Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs48.7/mmbtu). On tolling
                 volumes, which were negligible (0.97TBTU) during the quarter, re-gasification
                 margins stood at substantial Rs57.5/mmbtu (Rs28.9/mmbtu in 3QFY2010).
                 Realisation during the quarter (excluding Tolling Volumes) registered a decline of
                 18.6% yoy (despite substantial increase in gas cost of firm contract to US
                 $5.1/mmbtu on linkage with JCC prices) on account of Rupee appreciation and
                 absence of imported Spot LNG yoy. Gross Profit during the quarter fell by
                 substantial 39.2% yoy to Rs244cr (Rs402cr) and was much lower than our
                 expectation. OPM contracted by 440bp yoy to 8.5% (12.9%) mainly due to lower
                 Re-gasification margins during the quarter. On sequential basis too, OPM
                 contracted by 94bp. EBITDA during the quarter registered a decline of 40.8% yoy
                 to Rs202cr (Rs342cr).

                 Exhibit 3: Operating Performance
                         400                                                                                                                                                          16.0
                                                                                       14.7                                          12.9
                         350                                                                                                                                                          15.0
                                                                   13.2 12.8
                               12.8                       12.9                                                                                                                        14.0
                         300                                                                    12.3
                                                                                                         11.7                                                                         13.0
                         250                     11.0                                                             11.0
                                        10.5                                                                                                                                          12.0
                                                                                                                             7.5
                 Rs cr




                         200                                                                                                                                                          11.0




                                                                                                                                                                                             %
                                                                                                                                               7.0
                         150                                                                                                                                                          10.0
                                                                                                                                                                          9.3
                                                                                                                                                                                      9.0
                         100                                                                                                                                                        8.5
                                                                                                                                                                                      8.0
                         50                                                                                                                                     7.4
                                                                                                                                                                                      7.0
                           0                                                                                                                                                          6.0
                               1QFY07

                                        2QFY07

                                                 3QFY07

                                                          4QFY07

                                                                   1QFY08

                                                                              2QFY08

                                                                                       3QFY08

                                                                                                4QFY08

                                                                                                         1QFY09

                                                                                                                   2QFY09

                                                                                                                            3QFY09

                                                                                                                                     4QFY09

                                                                                                                                              1QFY10

                                                                                                                                                       2QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                 3QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                           4QFY10
                                                                            Operating Profit                      Operating margins (RHS)
                 Source: Company, Angel Research

                 Depreciation, Interest costs increase: Depreciation during the quarter registered an
                 increase of 80.4% yoy to Rs46cr (Rs25cr) on account of capitalisation of the Dahej
                 terminal post its commissioning in July 2009. Similarly, Interest expenditure was
                 also higher by 92.5% yoy to Rs51cr (Rs27cr) on account of capitalisation of the
                 Dahej terminal and re-pricing of the Interest rate on domestic currency
                 denominated loan.

                 PAT declines 52.3%: On account of weak Operating performance along with the
                 increase in Depreciation and Interest expenditure, PBT during the quarter registered
                 a decline of 55.2% to Rs139cr (Rs310cr). Bottom-line during the quarter registered
                 a decline of 52.3% yoy to Rs97cr (Rs204cr) and was lower than our expectation of
                 Rs135cr, largely on account of lower-than-expected Volumes processed during the
                 quarter and lower Re-gasification margins. This was despite the 66.6% increase in
                 Other Income to Rs33cr (Rs20cr) and decrease in the effective Tax rate to 29.9%
                 (34.1%).




April 29, 2010                                                                                                                                                                               3
Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update


Exhibit 4: Netback margins Trend
 Particulars                       4QFY08   1QFY09    2QFY09     3QFY09    4QFY09     1QFY10    2QFY10    3QFY10     4QFY10

 Realisation ( per TBTU)              219       211       221        291       322        272       300        262       262

 Raw material cost (per TBTU)         188       182       192        265       273        251       275        237       236

 Reported Netback margins            31.4      28.6       28.4      25.3       48.7      21.1      25.3       25.0      26.3
Source: Company, Angel Research



                                        Outlook and Valuation

                                        Though the company’s 4QFY2010 performance came in below our expectations, we
                                        believe that it will deliver better set of numbers going ahead on account of increased
                                        Spot LNG imports once GAIL’s pipeline capacity expansion gets completed in the
                                        latter half of FY2011E.

                                        On the Tariff front, we do not see significant risks emerging in the near future due to
                                        absence of Regulatory interference. Nonetheless, we do not expect the trend of
                                        annual escalation to continue. In fact, we have assumed a freeze on Re-gasification
                                        Margins from CY2011E onwards on account of re-pricing of LNG following the
                                        monthly alignment with JCC prices. Thus, there could be upsides to our estimates if
                                        the annual hike in the Re-gasification Margins continues beyond the current
                                        calendar year.

                                        We believe that LNG is likely to be a key source of gas supplies in the medium term
                                        on account of strong gas demand in the country. Hence, Petronet LNG is a proxy
                                        play on the increasing gap between natural gas supplies and demand in the
                                        country. However, there are some concerns over the long-term viability of LNG on
                                        account of the expected steep increase in the domestic gas supplies going ahead.
                                        But, given that some of the domestic sources of gas, viz. ONGC-KG gas and GSPC-
                                        KG gas could witness delays due to execution slippages, the concerns could subside.
                                        Moreover, we expect the domestic gas demand estimates to be revised upwards on
                                        account of increasing pipeline connectivity to various regions. The government is
                                        also making efforts to maintain long-term viability of LNG in the overall gas mix of
                                        the country. The government could act on Mercados Energy Markets International’s
                                        report regarding uniform domestic gas pricing. This move, if implemented, is likely
                                        to increase marketability of R-LNG in the country.

                                        Petronet has enhanced capacity of its Dahej terminal to 11.5MMTPA (6.5MMTPA
                                        earlier). However, it has linkages of 7.5MMTPA for the same. The un-tied capacity of
                                        4.0MMTPA (35% of installed capacity) is acting as an overhang on the stock
                                        performance on the bourses. However, given the recent reports suggesting Qatar’s
                                        proposal to increase LNG sales to India especially in light of surplus LNG capacities
                                        globally, additional gas supplies to Petronet is possible going ahead. This in turn
                                        could reduce the un-tied linkages and prove to be a strong re-rating trigger for the
                                        stock.

                                        Petronet LNG’s utility nature of business (stable Regasification Margins and term
                                        contracts), low Regulatory risks (Regasification Margins are not currently under
                                        PNGRB’s purview), expanding Volumes (commencement of Tranche-2 of Rasgas
                                        contract from January 2010) and subdued Spot LNG prices (on account of surplus
                                        LNG capacities) hold it in good stead. We have not assumed Marketing Margins on
                                        Spot Volumes for FY2011E onwards. We have also not built in any upsides from
                                        marketing of Spot Volumes. At current levels, the stock is available at reasonable
                                        valuations of 11.7x FY2012E EPS of Rs6.7. We maintain an Accumulate on the
                                        stock, with a 12-month DCF-based Target Price of Rs87.




April 29, 2010                                                                                                                 4
Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update



                 Exhibit 5: One-year Forward P/E Band
                                      140

                                      120

                                      100




                   Share Price (Rs)
                                       80

                                       60

                                       40

                                       20

                                        0




                                            Apr-05




                                                                       Apr-06




                                                                                                  Apr-07




                                                                                                                              Apr-08




                                                                                                                                                         Apr-09




                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-10
                                                     Aug-05




                                                                                Aug-06




                                                                                                           Aug-07




                                                                                                                                       Aug-08




                                                                                                                                                                  Aug-09
                                                              Dec-05




                                                                                         Dec-06




                                                                                                                     Dec-07




                                                                                                                                                Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                           Dec-09
                                                              Price             4.0x              7.0x              10.0x              13.0x             16.0x

                 Source: Company, Angel Research




April 29, 2010                                                                                                                                                                           5
Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update


                 Profit & Loss Statement                                                            (Rs cr)
                 Y/E March                         FY2007   FY2008   FY2009   FY2010E    FY2011E   FY2012E
                 Total operating income             5,509    6,555    8,429    10,649     12,872    18,011
                 % chg                                        19.0     28.6      26.3       20.9       39.9
                 Total Expenditure                  4,861    5,689    7,527     9,803     11,821    16,904
                 Net Raw Materials                  4,746    5,566    7,376     9,665     11,675    16,741
                 Personnel                           12.1     21.0     19.6      20.4       22.2       27.7
                 Other                              102.4    101.8    132.2     117.4      123.3     135.6
                 EBITDA                             648.1    866.1    901.3     846.5    1,051.7   1,106.6
                 % chg                               32.8     33.7      4.1      (6.1)      24.2        5.2
                 (% of Net Sales)                    11.8     13.2     10.7       7.9        8.2        6.1
                 Depreciation& Amortisation         102.0    102.2    102.5     160.9      188.9     191.5
                 EBIT                               546.0    764.0    798.8     685.6      862.7     915.1
                 % chg                               41.0     39.9      4.6     (14.2)      25.8        6.1
                 (% of Net Sales)                     9.9     11.7      9.5       6.4        6.7        5.1
                 Interest & other Charges           107.0    102.4    101.2     183.9      242.1     245.1
                 Other Income                        36.6     53.6     76.5      97.8       90.0       85.0
                 (% of PBT)                           7.7      7.5      9.9      16.3       12.7       11.3
                 Recurring PBT                      475.6    715.2    774.0     599.5      710.6     755.0
                 % chg                               61.2     50.4      8.2     (22.6)      18.5        6.2
                 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)           -        -        -          -         -              -
                 PBT (reported)                     475.6    715.2    774.0     599.5      710.6     755.0
                 Tax                                162.3    240.5    255.6     195.0      236.1     250.8
                 (% of PBT)                          34.1     33.6     33.0      32.5       33.2       33.2
                 PAT (reported)                     313.3    474.7    518.4     404.5      474.6     504.2
                 ADJ. PAT                           313.3    474.7    518.4     404.5      474.6     504.2
                 % chg                               60.7     51.5      9.2     (22.0)      17.3        6.2
                 (% of Net Sales)                     5.7      7.2      6.2       3.8        3.7        2.8
                 Basic EPS (Rs)                       4.2      6.3      6.9       5.4        6.3        6.7
                 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)               4.2      6.3      6.9       5.4        6.3        6.7
                 % chg                                        51.5      9.2     (22.0)      17.3        6.2
                 Source: Company, Angel Research




April 29, 2010                                                                                           6
Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update


                 Balance Sheet                                                                                                 (Rs cr)
                 Y/E March                           FY2007        FY2008         FY2009       FY2010E         FY2011E       FY2012E
                 SOURCES OF FUNDS
                 Equity Share Capital                  750.0         750.0         750.0          750.0           750.0         750.0
                 Preference Capital                          -              -             -              -               -               -
                 Reserves& Surplus                       526           869         1,233          1,484           1,782         2,083
                 Shareholders Funds                    1,276         1,619         1,983          2,234           2,532         2,833
                 Minority Interest                           -              -             -              -               -               -
                 Total Loans                           1,383         1,578         2,282          2,772           3,472         4,172
                 Deferred Tax Liability                247.2         269.2         272.2          326.2           361.6         399.2
                 Total Liabilities                     2,906         3,465         4,537          5,332           6,366         7,404
                 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                 Gross Block                           1,946         1,972         1,975          3,619           3,669         3,719
                 Less: Acc. Depreciation                 302           404           506            667            856          1,048
                 Net Block                             1,644         1,568         1,469          2,952           2,813         2,671
                 Capital Work-in-Progress                483         1,061         1,847            983           1,983         2,983
                 Goodwill                                    -              -             -              -               -               -
                 Investments                           278.0         547.3         304.3          304.3           304.3         304.3
                 Current Assets                        1,088         1,148         1,810          2,068           2,434         3,071
                 Cash                                  340.5         358.6         657.8          643.2           734.8         727.5
                 Loans & Advances                      205.1         360.9           78.3          78.3            78.3           78.3
                 Other                                   543           428         1,074          1,346           1,621         2,265
                 Current liabilities                     588           859           892            974           1,168         1,625
                 Net Current Assets                      501           289           917          1,093           1,266         1,446
                 Mis. Exp. not written off                   -              -             -              -               -               -
                 Total Assets                          2,906         3,465         4,537          5,332           6,366         7,404
                 Source: Company, Angel Research


                 Cash Flow Statement                                                                                          (Rs cr)
                 Y/E March                         FY2007        FY2008         FY2009        FY2010E        FY2011E         FY2012E
                 Profit before tax                  475.6         715.2          774.0          599.5           710.6           755.0
                 Depreciation                       102.0         102.2          102.5          160.9           188.9           191.5
                 Change in Working
                                                    (70.9)        158.9         (338.4)        (190.4)          (80.8)        (187.5)
                 Capital
                 Less: Other income                   2.4         (50.1)         (73.1)         (97.8)          (90.0)          (85.0)
                 Direct taxes paid                  (52.5)       (169.3)        (265.6)        (141.0)        (200.6)         (213.2)
                 Cash Flow from
                                                    456.6         756.8          199.4          331.1           528.1           460.9
                 Operations
                 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets      (366.6)       (604.3)        (788.3)        (780.0)                       (1,050.0)
                                                                                                             (1,050.0)
                 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments       (106.0)       (260.6)         246.2               -               -                  -
                 Other income                       (17.5)         41.4           69.5           97.8            90.0            85.0
                 Cash Flow from Investing          (490.0)       (823.5)        (472.6)        (682.2)        (960.0)         (965.0)
                 Issue of Equity                         -             -              -              -               -                  -
                 Inc./(Dec.) in loans               123.3         194.4          704.1          490.0           700.0           700.0
                 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)               -       (109.7)        (131.6)        (153.6)        (176.6)         (203.1)
                 Cash Flow from Financing           123.3          84.7          572.5          336.4           523.4           496.9
                 Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                 89.9          18.1          299.2          (14.6)           91.6            (7.2)
                 Opening Cash balances              250.6         340.5          358.6          657.8           643.2           734.8
                 Closing Cash balances              340.5         358.6          657.8          643.2           734.8           727.5
                 Source: Company, Angel Research




April 29, 2010                                                                                                                       7
Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update


                 Key Ratios
                 Y/E March                         FY2007   FY2008    FY2009    FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
                 Valuation Ratio (x)
                 P/E (on FDEPS)                      18.8     12.4       11.4      14.6      12.4      11.7
                 P/CEPS                              14.2     10.2        9.5      10.4       8.9       8.5
                 P/BV                                 4.6      3.6        3.0       2.6       2.3       2.1
                 Dividend yield (%)                   1.6      1.9        2.2       2.2       2.6       2.9
                 EV/Sales                             1.2      1.0        0.9       0.7       0.7       0.5
                 EV/EBITDA                           10.3      7.6        8.0       9.1       7.9       8.2
                 EV/Total Assets                      2.3      1.9        1.6       1.4       1.3       1.2
                 Per Share Data (Rs)
                 EPS (Basic)                          4.2      6.3        6.9       5.4       6.3       6.7
                 EPS (fully diluted)                  4.2      6.3        6.9       5.4       6.3       6.7
                 Cash EPS                             5.5      7.7        8.3       7.5       8.8       9.3
                 DPS                                  1.2      1.5        1.8       1.8       2.0       2.3
                 Book Value                          17.0     21.6       26.4      29.8      33.8      37.8
                 Dupont Analysis (%)
                 EBIT margin                          9.9     11.7        9.5       6.5       6.7       5.1
                 Tax retention ratio                 66.0     66.4       67.1      67.5      66.8      66.8
                 Asset turnover (x)                   2.6      2.7        2.7       2.7       2.6       3.1
                 ROIC (Post-tax)                     16.8     20.9       17.5      11.6      11.9      10.4
                 Cost of Debt (Post Tax)              5.3      4.6        3.5       4.9       5.2       4.3
                 Leverage (x)                         0.6      0.7        0.9       1.0       1.2       0.6
                 Operating ROE                       23.8     32.2       29.6      18.4      19.7      14.1
                 Returns (%)
                 ROCE (Pre-tax)                      20.5     24.0       20.0      13.9      14.8      13.3
                 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)                29.6     46.3       49.5      26.7      25.6      27.2
                 ROE                                 26.7     32.8       28.8      19.2      19.9      18.8
                 Turnover ratios (x)
                 Asset Turnover (Gross Block)         2.8      3.3        4.3       3.8       3.5       4.9
                 Inventory / Sales (days)            10.4      8.4       10.3      15.0      15.3      14.3
                 Receivables (days)                  15.2     18.5       21.7      26.1      26.6      24.9
                 Payables (days)                     20.4     26.5       28.3      29.0      28.0      26.1
                 Working capital cycle (ex-
                                                     10.2      2.5        4.1      12.2      14.0      12.7
                 cash) (days)
                 Solvency ratios (x)
                 Net debt to equity                   0.6      0.4        0.7       0.8       1.0       1.1
                 Net debt to EBITDA                   1.2      0.8        1.5       2.2       2.3       2.8
                 Interest Coverage
                                                      5.1      7.5        7.9       3.7       3.6       3.7
                 (EBIT/Interest)
                 Source: Company, Angel Research




April 29, 2010                                                                                            8
Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update



Research Team Tel: 4040 3800                                       E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                       Website: www.angeltrade.com


DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved),
and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true,
and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly,
we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or
other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services
in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the
use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                        Petronet LNG
 1.    Analyst ownership of the stock                                                           No
 2.    Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                                     No
 3.    Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock                          No
 4.    Broking relationship with company covered                                                No
 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.




                                Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                                    Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800



    Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
    INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
    Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
    CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302



April 29, 2010                                                                                                                                                                              9

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Petronet lng ru4 qfy2010-290410

  • 1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I Oil & Gas April 29, 2010 Petronet LNG ACCUMULATE CMP Rs79 Performance Highlights Target Price Rs87 Petronet LNG reported lower-than-expected set of numbers for 4QFY2010 on Investment Period 12 Months the back of lower re-gasification margins, absence of Spot volumes and negligible Tolling volumes. Bottom-line, which registered a decline of 52.3% Stock Info yoy to Rs97cr (Rs204cr), came in lower than our expectation of Rs135cr. Sector Oil & Gas Going ahead, we expect the demand for Spot gas to pick up on account of rollout of GAIL’s pipeline network in 2HFY2011E. At Rs79, the stock is trading Market Cap (Rs cr) 5,903 at 12.4x FY2011E and 11.7x FY2012E Earnings. We maintain an Accumulate Beta 0.8 on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs87. 52 WK High / Low 87/51 Absence of Spot volumes takes toll on performance: During 4QFY2010, Petronet LNG reported 10.1% yoy decline in Revenues to Rs2,385cr Avg. Daily Volume 964168 (Rs2,655cr), which was much below our expectation on account of absence of Face Value (Rs) 10 costly Spot volumes. Volumes during the quarter stood at 91.8TBTU and were much below our expectation of 123TBTUs. Volumes were higher by 11.3% yoy BSE Sensex 17,503 on account of commissioning of additional 2.5MMTPA of gas supplies from Nifty 5,254 Qatar, but were lower 3.7% qoq. Net re-gasification margins during the quarter rose by 5.3% qoq to Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs25/mmbtu), but was lower than Reuters Code PLNG.BO our expectation on account of adjustment of Rs24cr of forex gain in Other Bloomberg Code PLNG@IN Income vis-à-vis Raw Material cost along with increased cost of internal consumption of gas (on account of increase in fixed gas price due to increased Shareholding Pattern (%) linkage with JCC Index). Net re-gasification margins on a yoy basis fell 46% yoy to Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs48.7/mmbtu). Gross Profit during the quarter fell by a Promoters 50.0 substantial 39.2% yoy to Rs244cr (Rs402cr) and was much lower than our MF/Banks/Indian FLs 7.5 expectation. FII/NRIs/OCBs 20.9 Outlook and Valuation: Petronet LNG’s utility nature of business (stable Indian Public 21.6 Regasification Margins and term contracts), low Regulatory risks (Regasification Margins are not currently under PNGRB’s purview), expanding Volumes Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr (commencement of Tranche-2 of Rasgas contract from January 2010) and Sensex 7.0 53.5 25.8 subdued Spot LNG prices (on account of surplus LNG capacities) hold it in good stead. At current levels, the stock is available at reasonable valuations of PLNG 62.5 53.0 73.5 11.7x FY2012E EPS of Rs6.7. We maintain an Accumulate on the stock, with a 12-month DCF-based Target Price of Rs87. Key Financials Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 8,429 10,649 12,872 18,011 % chg 4.5 9.1 17.3 22.7 Net Profits 518 405 475 504 % chg 5.0 8.4 24.9 20.5 OPM (%) 10.7 7.9 8.2 6.1 EPS (Rs) 6.9 5.4 6.3 6.7 P/E (x) 11.4 14.6 12.4 11.7 Deepak Pareek P/BV (x) 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 340 RoE (%) 28.8 19.2 19.9 18.8 E-mail: deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com RoCE (%) 20.0 13.9 14.8 13.3 Amit Vora EV/Sales (x) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 322 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.0 9.1 7.9 8.2 E-mail: amit.vora@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research 1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY10 4QFY09 %chg FY10 FY09 %chg Net Sales 2,385 2,655 (10.1) 10,649 8,429 26.3 COGS 2,141 2,253 (5.0) 9,665 7,376 31.0 other operating expenditure 42 60 (29.9) 138 152 (9.2) EBITDA 202 342 (40.8) 846 901 (6.1) EBITDA Margin (%) 8.5 12.9 7.9 10.7 Other Income 33 20 66.6 98 77 27.9 Depreciation 46 25 80.4 161 103 56.9 Interest 51 27 92.5 184 101 81.7 PBT 139 310 (55.2) 599 774 (22.6) PBT Margin (%) 5.8 11.7 5.6 9.2 Total Tax 41 106 (60.9) 195 256 (23.8) % of PBT 29.8 34.1 32.5 33.0 PAT 97 204 (52.3) 404 518 (22.0) PAT Margin (%) 4.1 7.7 3.8 6.1 Source: Company, Angel Research Volume, Top-line declines qoq despite commissioning of new 2.5MMTPA contract: For 4QFY2010, Petronet’s R-LNG Volumes rose 11.3% yoy to 91.8TBTUs (82.5TBTUs), which was much below our expectation of 123TBTUs. Volume growth during the quarter on a yoy basis was supported by commissioning of additional 2.5MMTPA of gas supplies from Qatar on January 3, 2010. However, on a qoq basis, volumes declined by 3.7% (95.2TBTU in 3QFY2010) on account of absence of Spot volumes and negligible Tolling volumes due to lack of demand for imported gas on account of lack of gas transmission capacity along with ramp up of domestic gas production from KG-D6. Contractual Volumes during the quarter were higher on a qoq basis at 90.8TBTUs (65TBTUs), while Spot Volumes were nil against 19.3TBTU registered in 3QFY2010. Tolling Volumes was also mere 0.97TBTU as against substantial 10.9TBTU registered in 3QFY2010. On the Revenue front, the company reported 10.1% yoy decline in Revenues to Rs2,385cr (Rs2,655cr), which was much below our expectation of Rs3,414cr. Realisation during the quarter registered a substantial decline of 18.6% yoy on account of Rupee appreciation coupled with absence of Spot LNG imports. Exhibit 2: R-LNG Volumes 100.0 90.8 90.0 80.0 67.5 67.8 65.0 70.0 63.2 62.4 64.2 64.0 60.3 61.0 58.3 61.0 60.1 63.0 62.7 62.0 60.0 51.8 50.0 TBTUs 40.0 36.1 30.2 30.0 25.0 19.2 19.0 21.6 17.0 19.5 20.0 12.0 13.1 14.5 8.6 7.2 10.0 3.2 1.0 0.0 1QFY07 2QFY07 3QFY07 4QFY07 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 Contracted LNG Sales in TBTUs Spot cargo & Tolling volumes sales in TBTUs (Incl. RGPPL Gas) Source: Company, Angel Research April 29, 2010 2
  • 3. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update Lower-than-expected Net Re-gasification Margins result in below par operating performance: Net re-gasification margins during the quarter rose by 5.3% qoq to Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs25/mmbtu), but was lower than our expectation on account of adjustment of Rs24cr of forex gain in Other Income vis-à-vis Raw Material cost along with increased cost of internal consumption of gas (on account of increase in fixed gas price due to increased linkage with JCC Index). Net re-gasification margins on a yoy basis fell 46% yoy to Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs48.7/mmbtu). On tolling volumes, which were negligible (0.97TBTU) during the quarter, re-gasification margins stood at substantial Rs57.5/mmbtu (Rs28.9/mmbtu in 3QFY2010). Realisation during the quarter (excluding Tolling Volumes) registered a decline of 18.6% yoy (despite substantial increase in gas cost of firm contract to US $5.1/mmbtu on linkage with JCC prices) on account of Rupee appreciation and absence of imported Spot LNG yoy. Gross Profit during the quarter fell by substantial 39.2% yoy to Rs244cr (Rs402cr) and was much lower than our expectation. OPM contracted by 440bp yoy to 8.5% (12.9%) mainly due to lower Re-gasification margins during the quarter. On sequential basis too, OPM contracted by 94bp. EBITDA during the quarter registered a decline of 40.8% yoy to Rs202cr (Rs342cr). Exhibit 3: Operating Performance 400 16.0 14.7 12.9 350 15.0 13.2 12.8 12.8 12.9 14.0 300 12.3 11.7 13.0 250 11.0 11.0 10.5 12.0 7.5 Rs cr 200 11.0 % 7.0 150 10.0 9.3 9.0 100 8.5 8.0 50 7.4 7.0 0 6.0 1QFY07 2QFY07 3QFY07 4QFY07 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 Operating Profit Operating margins (RHS) Source: Company, Angel Research Depreciation, Interest costs increase: Depreciation during the quarter registered an increase of 80.4% yoy to Rs46cr (Rs25cr) on account of capitalisation of the Dahej terminal post its commissioning in July 2009. Similarly, Interest expenditure was also higher by 92.5% yoy to Rs51cr (Rs27cr) on account of capitalisation of the Dahej terminal and re-pricing of the Interest rate on domestic currency denominated loan. PAT declines 52.3%: On account of weak Operating performance along with the increase in Depreciation and Interest expenditure, PBT during the quarter registered a decline of 55.2% to Rs139cr (Rs310cr). Bottom-line during the quarter registered a decline of 52.3% yoy to Rs97cr (Rs204cr) and was lower than our expectation of Rs135cr, largely on account of lower-than-expected Volumes processed during the quarter and lower Re-gasification margins. This was despite the 66.6% increase in Other Income to Rs33cr (Rs20cr) and decrease in the effective Tax rate to 29.9% (34.1%). April 29, 2010 3
  • 4. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 4: Netback margins Trend Particulars 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 Realisation ( per TBTU) 219 211 221 291 322 272 300 262 262 Raw material cost (per TBTU) 188 182 192 265 273 251 275 237 236 Reported Netback margins 31.4 28.6 28.4 25.3 48.7 21.1 25.3 25.0 26.3 Source: Company, Angel Research Outlook and Valuation Though the company’s 4QFY2010 performance came in below our expectations, we believe that it will deliver better set of numbers going ahead on account of increased Spot LNG imports once GAIL’s pipeline capacity expansion gets completed in the latter half of FY2011E. On the Tariff front, we do not see significant risks emerging in the near future due to absence of Regulatory interference. Nonetheless, we do not expect the trend of annual escalation to continue. In fact, we have assumed a freeze on Re-gasification Margins from CY2011E onwards on account of re-pricing of LNG following the monthly alignment with JCC prices. Thus, there could be upsides to our estimates if the annual hike in the Re-gasification Margins continues beyond the current calendar year. We believe that LNG is likely to be a key source of gas supplies in the medium term on account of strong gas demand in the country. Hence, Petronet LNG is a proxy play on the increasing gap between natural gas supplies and demand in the country. However, there are some concerns over the long-term viability of LNG on account of the expected steep increase in the domestic gas supplies going ahead. But, given that some of the domestic sources of gas, viz. ONGC-KG gas and GSPC- KG gas could witness delays due to execution slippages, the concerns could subside. Moreover, we expect the domestic gas demand estimates to be revised upwards on account of increasing pipeline connectivity to various regions. The government is also making efforts to maintain long-term viability of LNG in the overall gas mix of the country. The government could act on Mercados Energy Markets International’s report regarding uniform domestic gas pricing. This move, if implemented, is likely to increase marketability of R-LNG in the country. Petronet has enhanced capacity of its Dahej terminal to 11.5MMTPA (6.5MMTPA earlier). However, it has linkages of 7.5MMTPA for the same. The un-tied capacity of 4.0MMTPA (35% of installed capacity) is acting as an overhang on the stock performance on the bourses. However, given the recent reports suggesting Qatar’s proposal to increase LNG sales to India especially in light of surplus LNG capacities globally, additional gas supplies to Petronet is possible going ahead. This in turn could reduce the un-tied linkages and prove to be a strong re-rating trigger for the stock. Petronet LNG’s utility nature of business (stable Regasification Margins and term contracts), low Regulatory risks (Regasification Margins are not currently under PNGRB’s purview), expanding Volumes (commencement of Tranche-2 of Rasgas contract from January 2010) and subdued Spot LNG prices (on account of surplus LNG capacities) hold it in good stead. We have not assumed Marketing Margins on Spot Volumes for FY2011E onwards. We have also not built in any upsides from marketing of Spot Volumes. At current levels, the stock is available at reasonable valuations of 11.7x FY2012E EPS of Rs6.7. We maintain an Accumulate on the stock, with a 12-month DCF-based Target Price of Rs87. April 29, 2010 4
  • 5. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 5: One-year Forward P/E Band 140 120 100 Share Price (Rs) 80 60 40 20 0 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Price 4.0x 7.0x 10.0x 13.0x 16.0x Source: Company, Angel Research April 29, 2010 5
  • 6. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Total operating income 5,509 6,555 8,429 10,649 12,872 18,011 % chg 19.0 28.6 26.3 20.9 39.9 Total Expenditure 4,861 5,689 7,527 9,803 11,821 16,904 Net Raw Materials 4,746 5,566 7,376 9,665 11,675 16,741 Personnel 12.1 21.0 19.6 20.4 22.2 27.7 Other 102.4 101.8 132.2 117.4 123.3 135.6 EBITDA 648.1 866.1 901.3 846.5 1,051.7 1,106.6 % chg 32.8 33.7 4.1 (6.1) 24.2 5.2 (% of Net Sales) 11.8 13.2 10.7 7.9 8.2 6.1 Depreciation& Amortisation 102.0 102.2 102.5 160.9 188.9 191.5 EBIT 546.0 764.0 798.8 685.6 862.7 915.1 % chg 41.0 39.9 4.6 (14.2) 25.8 6.1 (% of Net Sales) 9.9 11.7 9.5 6.4 6.7 5.1 Interest & other Charges 107.0 102.4 101.2 183.9 242.1 245.1 Other Income 36.6 53.6 76.5 97.8 90.0 85.0 (% of PBT) 7.7 7.5 9.9 16.3 12.7 11.3 Recurring PBT 475.6 715.2 774.0 599.5 710.6 755.0 % chg 61.2 50.4 8.2 (22.6) 18.5 6.2 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - - PBT (reported) 475.6 715.2 774.0 599.5 710.6 755.0 Tax 162.3 240.5 255.6 195.0 236.1 250.8 (% of PBT) 34.1 33.6 33.0 32.5 33.2 33.2 PAT (reported) 313.3 474.7 518.4 404.5 474.6 504.2 ADJ. PAT 313.3 474.7 518.4 404.5 474.6 504.2 % chg 60.7 51.5 9.2 (22.0) 17.3 6.2 (% of Net Sales) 5.7 7.2 6.2 3.8 3.7 2.8 Basic EPS (Rs) 4.2 6.3 6.9 5.4 6.3 6.7 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.2 6.3 6.9 5.4 6.3 6.7 % chg 51.5 9.2 (22.0) 17.3 6.2 Source: Company, Angel Research April 29, 2010 6
  • 7. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update Balance Sheet (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 750.0 750.0 750.0 750.0 750.0 750.0 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 526 869 1,233 1,484 1,782 2,083 Shareholders Funds 1,276 1,619 1,983 2,234 2,532 2,833 Minority Interest - - - - - - Total Loans 1,383 1,578 2,282 2,772 3,472 4,172 Deferred Tax Liability 247.2 269.2 272.2 326.2 361.6 399.2 Total Liabilities 2,906 3,465 4,537 5,332 6,366 7,404 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 1,946 1,972 1,975 3,619 3,669 3,719 Less: Acc. Depreciation 302 404 506 667 856 1,048 Net Block 1,644 1,568 1,469 2,952 2,813 2,671 Capital Work-in-Progress 483 1,061 1,847 983 1,983 2,983 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 278.0 547.3 304.3 304.3 304.3 304.3 Current Assets 1,088 1,148 1,810 2,068 2,434 3,071 Cash 340.5 358.6 657.8 643.2 734.8 727.5 Loans & Advances 205.1 360.9 78.3 78.3 78.3 78.3 Other 543 428 1,074 1,346 1,621 2,265 Current liabilities 588 859 892 974 1,168 1,625 Net Current Assets 501 289 917 1,093 1,266 1,446 Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - - Total Assets 2,906 3,465 4,537 5,332 6,366 7,404 Source: Company, Angel Research Cash Flow Statement (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 475.6 715.2 774.0 599.5 710.6 755.0 Depreciation 102.0 102.2 102.5 160.9 188.9 191.5 Change in Working (70.9) 158.9 (338.4) (190.4) (80.8) (187.5) Capital Less: Other income 2.4 (50.1) (73.1) (97.8) (90.0) (85.0) Direct taxes paid (52.5) (169.3) (265.6) (141.0) (200.6) (213.2) Cash Flow from 456.6 756.8 199.4 331.1 528.1 460.9 Operations (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (366.6) (604.3) (788.3) (780.0) (1,050.0) (1,050.0) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (106.0) (260.6) 246.2 - - - Other income (17.5) 41.4 69.5 97.8 90.0 85.0 Cash Flow from Investing (490.0) (823.5) (472.6) (682.2) (960.0) (965.0) Issue of Equity - - - - - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 123.3 194.4 704.1 490.0 700.0 700.0 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) - (109.7) (131.6) (153.6) (176.6) (203.1) Cash Flow from Financing 123.3 84.7 572.5 336.4 523.4 496.9 Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 89.9 18.1 299.2 (14.6) 91.6 (7.2) Opening Cash balances 250.6 340.5 358.6 657.8 643.2 734.8 Closing Cash balances 340.5 358.6 657.8 643.2 734.8 727.5 Source: Company, Angel Research April 29, 2010 7
  • 8. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 18.8 12.4 11.4 14.6 12.4 11.7 P/CEPS 14.2 10.2 9.5 10.4 8.9 8.5 P/BV 4.6 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.9 EV/Sales 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 EV/EBITDA 10.3 7.6 8.0 9.1 7.9 8.2 EV/Total Assets 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 4.2 6.3 6.9 5.4 6.3 6.7 EPS (fully diluted) 4.2 6.3 6.9 5.4 6.3 6.7 Cash EPS 5.5 7.7 8.3 7.5 8.8 9.3 DPS 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 Book Value 17.0 21.6 26.4 29.8 33.8 37.8 Dupont Analysis (%) EBIT margin 9.9 11.7 9.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 Tax retention ratio 66.0 66.4 67.1 67.5 66.8 66.8 Asset turnover (x) 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.1 ROIC (Post-tax) 16.8 20.9 17.5 11.6 11.9 10.4 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 5.3 4.6 3.5 4.9 5.2 4.3 Leverage (x) 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.6 Operating ROE 23.8 32.2 29.6 18.4 19.7 14.1 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 20.5 24.0 20.0 13.9 14.8 13.3 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 29.6 46.3 49.5 26.7 25.6 27.2 ROE 26.7 32.8 28.8 19.2 19.9 18.8 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.8 3.3 4.3 3.8 3.5 4.9 Inventory / Sales (days) 10.4 8.4 10.3 15.0 15.3 14.3 Receivables (days) 15.2 18.5 21.7 26.1 26.6 24.9 Payables (days) 20.4 26.5 28.3 29.0 28.0 26.1 Working capital cycle (ex- 10.2 2.5 4.1 12.2 14.0 12.7 cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 Net debt to EBITDA 1.2 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.8 Interest Coverage 5.1 7.5 7.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 (EBIT/Interest) Source: Company, Angel Research April 29, 2010 8
  • 9. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update Research Team Tel: 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement Petronet LNG 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 April 29, 2010 9