1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I Oil & Gas
April 29, 2010
Petronet LNG ACCUMULATE
CMP Rs79
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs87
Petronet LNG reported lower-than-expected set of numbers for 4QFY2010 on Investment Period 12 Months
the back of lower re-gasification margins, absence of Spot volumes and
negligible Tolling volumes. Bottom-line, which registered a decline of 52.3% Stock Info
yoy to Rs97cr (Rs204cr), came in lower than our expectation of Rs135cr.
Sector Oil & Gas
Going ahead, we expect the demand for Spot gas to pick up on account of
rollout of GAIL’s pipeline network in 2HFY2011E. At Rs79, the stock is trading Market Cap (Rs cr) 5,903
at 12.4x FY2011E and 11.7x FY2012E Earnings. We maintain an Accumulate
Beta 0.8
on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs87.
52 WK High / Low 87/51
Absence of Spot volumes takes toll on performance: During 4QFY2010,
Petronet LNG reported 10.1% yoy decline in Revenues to Rs2,385cr Avg. Daily Volume 964168
(Rs2,655cr), which was much below our expectation on account of absence of Face Value (Rs) 10
costly Spot volumes. Volumes during the quarter stood at 91.8TBTU and were
much below our expectation of 123TBTUs. Volumes were higher by 11.3% yoy BSE Sensex 17,503
on account of commissioning of additional 2.5MMTPA of gas supplies from Nifty 5,254
Qatar, but were lower 3.7% qoq. Net re-gasification margins during the
quarter rose by 5.3% qoq to Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs25/mmbtu), but was lower than Reuters Code PLNG.BO
our expectation on account of adjustment of Rs24cr of forex gain in Other
Bloomberg Code PLNG@IN
Income vis-à-vis Raw Material cost along with increased cost of internal
consumption of gas (on account of increase in fixed gas price due to increased Shareholding Pattern (%)
linkage with JCC Index). Net re-gasification margins on a yoy basis fell 46%
yoy to Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs48.7/mmbtu). Gross Profit during the quarter fell by a Promoters 50.0
substantial 39.2% yoy to Rs244cr (Rs402cr) and was much lower than our MF/Banks/Indian FLs 7.5
expectation.
FII/NRIs/OCBs 20.9
Outlook and Valuation: Petronet LNG’s utility nature of business (stable Indian Public 21.6
Regasification Margins and term contracts), low Regulatory risks (Regasification
Margins are not currently under PNGRB’s purview), expanding Volumes Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
(commencement of Tranche-2 of Rasgas contract from January 2010) and
Sensex 7.0 53.5 25.8
subdued Spot LNG prices (on account of surplus LNG capacities) hold it in
good stead. At current levels, the stock is available at reasonable valuations of
PLNG 62.5 53.0 73.5
11.7x FY2012E EPS of Rs6.7. We maintain an Accumulate on the stock, with a
12-month DCF-based Target Price of Rs87.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 8,429 10,649 12,872 18,011
% chg 4.5 9.1 17.3 22.7
Net Profits 518 405 475 504
% chg 5.0 8.4 24.9 20.5
OPM (%) 10.7 7.9 8.2 6.1
EPS (Rs) 6.9 5.4 6.3 6.7
P/E (x) 11.4 14.6 12.4 11.7 Deepak Pareek
P/BV (x) 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 340
RoE (%) 28.8 19.2 19.9 18.8 E-mail: deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
RoCE (%) 20.0 13.9 14.8 13.3
Amit Vora
EV/Sales (x) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5
Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 322
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.0 9.1 7.9 8.2
E-mail: amit.vora@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
2. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance
Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY10 4QFY09 %chg FY10 FY09 %chg
Net Sales 2,385 2,655 (10.1) 10,649 8,429 26.3
COGS 2,141 2,253 (5.0) 9,665 7,376 31.0
other operating expenditure 42 60 (29.9) 138 152 (9.2)
EBITDA 202 342 (40.8) 846 901 (6.1)
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.5 12.9 7.9 10.7
Other Income 33 20 66.6 98 77 27.9
Depreciation 46 25 80.4 161 103 56.9
Interest 51 27 92.5 184 101 81.7
PBT 139 310 (55.2) 599 774 (22.6)
PBT Margin (%) 5.8 11.7 5.6 9.2
Total Tax 41 106 (60.9) 195 256 (23.8)
% of PBT 29.8 34.1 32.5 33.0
PAT 97 204 (52.3) 404 518 (22.0)
PAT Margin (%) 4.1 7.7 3.8 6.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
Volume, Top-line declines qoq despite commissioning of new 2.5MMTPA contract:
For 4QFY2010, Petronet’s R-LNG Volumes rose 11.3% yoy to 91.8TBTUs
(82.5TBTUs), which was much below our expectation of 123TBTUs. Volume growth
during the quarter on a yoy basis was supported by commissioning of additional
2.5MMTPA of gas supplies from Qatar on January 3, 2010. However, on a qoq
basis, volumes declined by 3.7% (95.2TBTU in 3QFY2010) on account of absence
of Spot volumes and negligible Tolling volumes due to lack of demand for imported
gas on account of lack of gas transmission capacity along with ramp up of domestic
gas production from KG-D6. Contractual Volumes during the quarter were higher
on a qoq basis at 90.8TBTUs (65TBTUs), while Spot Volumes were nil against
19.3TBTU registered in 3QFY2010. Tolling Volumes was also mere 0.97TBTU as
against substantial 10.9TBTU registered in 3QFY2010. On the Revenue front, the
company reported 10.1% yoy decline in Revenues to Rs2,385cr (Rs2,655cr), which
was much below our expectation of Rs3,414cr. Realisation during the quarter
registered a substantial decline of 18.6% yoy on account of Rupee appreciation
coupled with absence of Spot LNG imports.
Exhibit 2: R-LNG Volumes
100.0 90.8
90.0
80.0
67.5 67.8 65.0
70.0 63.2 62.4 64.2 64.0
60.3 61.0 58.3 61.0 60.1 63.0 62.7 62.0
60.0 51.8
50.0
TBTUs
40.0 36.1
30.2
30.0 25.0
19.2 19.0 21.6 17.0 19.5
20.0 12.0 13.1 14.5
8.6 7.2
10.0 3.2 1.0
0.0
1QFY07
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
Contracted LNG Sales in TBTUs Spot cargo & Tolling volumes sales in TBTUs (Incl. RGPPL Gas)
Source: Company, Angel Research
April 29, 2010 2
3. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Lower-than-expected Net Re-gasification Margins result in below par operating
performance: Net re-gasification margins during the quarter rose by 5.3% qoq to
Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs25/mmbtu), but was lower than our expectation on account of
adjustment of Rs24cr of forex gain in Other Income vis-à-vis Raw Material cost
along with increased cost of internal consumption of gas (on account of increase in
fixed gas price due to increased linkage with JCC Index). Net re-gasification
margins on a yoy basis fell 46% yoy to Rs26.3/mmbtu (Rs48.7/mmbtu). On tolling
volumes, which were negligible (0.97TBTU) during the quarter, re-gasification
margins stood at substantial Rs57.5/mmbtu (Rs28.9/mmbtu in 3QFY2010).
Realisation during the quarter (excluding Tolling Volumes) registered a decline of
18.6% yoy (despite substantial increase in gas cost of firm contract to US
$5.1/mmbtu on linkage with JCC prices) on account of Rupee appreciation and
absence of imported Spot LNG yoy. Gross Profit during the quarter fell by
substantial 39.2% yoy to Rs244cr (Rs402cr) and was much lower than our
expectation. OPM contracted by 440bp yoy to 8.5% (12.9%) mainly due to lower
Re-gasification margins during the quarter. On sequential basis too, OPM
contracted by 94bp. EBITDA during the quarter registered a decline of 40.8% yoy
to Rs202cr (Rs342cr).
Exhibit 3: Operating Performance
400 16.0
14.7 12.9
350 15.0
13.2 12.8
12.8 12.9 14.0
300 12.3
11.7 13.0
250 11.0 11.0
10.5 12.0
7.5
Rs cr
200 11.0
%
7.0
150 10.0
9.3
9.0
100 8.5
8.0
50 7.4
7.0
0 6.0
1QFY07
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
Operating Profit Operating margins (RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Depreciation, Interest costs increase: Depreciation during the quarter registered an
increase of 80.4% yoy to Rs46cr (Rs25cr) on account of capitalisation of the Dahej
terminal post its commissioning in July 2009. Similarly, Interest expenditure was
also higher by 92.5% yoy to Rs51cr (Rs27cr) on account of capitalisation of the
Dahej terminal and re-pricing of the Interest rate on domestic currency
denominated loan.
PAT declines 52.3%: On account of weak Operating performance along with the
increase in Depreciation and Interest expenditure, PBT during the quarter registered
a decline of 55.2% to Rs139cr (Rs310cr). Bottom-line during the quarter registered
a decline of 52.3% yoy to Rs97cr (Rs204cr) and was lower than our expectation of
Rs135cr, largely on account of lower-than-expected Volumes processed during the
quarter and lower Re-gasification margins. This was despite the 66.6% increase in
Other Income to Rs33cr (Rs20cr) and decrease in the effective Tax rate to 29.9%
(34.1%).
April 29, 2010 3
4. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Exhibit 4: Netback margins Trend
Particulars 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10
Realisation ( per TBTU) 219 211 221 291 322 272 300 262 262
Raw material cost (per TBTU) 188 182 192 265 273 251 275 237 236
Reported Netback margins 31.4 28.6 28.4 25.3 48.7 21.1 25.3 25.0 26.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and Valuation
Though the company’s 4QFY2010 performance came in below our expectations, we
believe that it will deliver better set of numbers going ahead on account of increased
Spot LNG imports once GAIL’s pipeline capacity expansion gets completed in the
latter half of FY2011E.
On the Tariff front, we do not see significant risks emerging in the near future due to
absence of Regulatory interference. Nonetheless, we do not expect the trend of
annual escalation to continue. In fact, we have assumed a freeze on Re-gasification
Margins from CY2011E onwards on account of re-pricing of LNG following the
monthly alignment with JCC prices. Thus, there could be upsides to our estimates if
the annual hike in the Re-gasification Margins continues beyond the current
calendar year.
We believe that LNG is likely to be a key source of gas supplies in the medium term
on account of strong gas demand in the country. Hence, Petronet LNG is a proxy
play on the increasing gap between natural gas supplies and demand in the
country. However, there are some concerns over the long-term viability of LNG on
account of the expected steep increase in the domestic gas supplies going ahead.
But, given that some of the domestic sources of gas, viz. ONGC-KG gas and GSPC-
KG gas could witness delays due to execution slippages, the concerns could subside.
Moreover, we expect the domestic gas demand estimates to be revised upwards on
account of increasing pipeline connectivity to various regions. The government is
also making efforts to maintain long-term viability of LNG in the overall gas mix of
the country. The government could act on Mercados Energy Markets International’s
report regarding uniform domestic gas pricing. This move, if implemented, is likely
to increase marketability of R-LNG in the country.
Petronet has enhanced capacity of its Dahej terminal to 11.5MMTPA (6.5MMTPA
earlier). However, it has linkages of 7.5MMTPA for the same. The un-tied capacity of
4.0MMTPA (35% of installed capacity) is acting as an overhang on the stock
performance on the bourses. However, given the recent reports suggesting Qatar’s
proposal to increase LNG sales to India especially in light of surplus LNG capacities
globally, additional gas supplies to Petronet is possible going ahead. This in turn
could reduce the un-tied linkages and prove to be a strong re-rating trigger for the
stock.
Petronet LNG’s utility nature of business (stable Regasification Margins and term
contracts), low Regulatory risks (Regasification Margins are not currently under
PNGRB’s purview), expanding Volumes (commencement of Tranche-2 of Rasgas
contract from January 2010) and subdued Spot LNG prices (on account of surplus
LNG capacities) hold it in good stead. We have not assumed Marketing Margins on
Spot Volumes for FY2011E onwards. We have also not built in any upsides from
marketing of Spot Volumes. At current levels, the stock is available at reasonable
valuations of 11.7x FY2012E EPS of Rs6.7. We maintain an Accumulate on the
stock, with a 12-month DCF-based Target Price of Rs87.
April 29, 2010 4
9. Petronet LNG I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved),
and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.
Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true,
and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly,
we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or
other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly.
Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services
in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.
Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the
use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).
Disclosure of Interest Statement Petronet LNG
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.
Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
April 29, 2010 9