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Marico ru2 qfy2011-261010
1. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
(` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy Angel Est % Diff
Revenue 778.8 692.2 12.5 805.1 (3.3)
EBITDA 99.3 95.0 4.5 105.9 (6.3)
OPM (%) 12.7 13.7 (98) 13.2 (41)
PAT 71.6 62.4 14.8 73.2 (2.3)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Marico posted mix set of numbers for 2QFY2011. While overall volume growth
stood at a strong 15%, price cuts in core brands continued to drag overall
top-line growth (unfavourable base). In terms of profitability, while earnings grew
by a modest 15% yoy boosted by higher other income and lower tax rate,
operating profit grew only 4.5% yoy impacted by the 270bp contraction in gross
margin due to rising input costs. We recommend Neutral view on the stock.
Strong volume growth, low tax boost earnings: Marico posted a steady top-line
growth of ~12.5% yoy to `779cr led by strong 15% volume growth. Its core
brands Parachute and Saffola posted volume growth of 10% and 18%
respectively. Management guided for a further ~6-7% price hike in Parachute
(~5% already implemented in August). Kaya grew 28% yoy (including Derma Rx)
and 2% yoy (excluding Derma Rx) with declining sequential losses in standalone
Kaya. International business continued its steady momentum with 23% growth in
constant currency terms (18% adjusted for rupee appreciation). In terms of
earnings, Marico posted a growth of 15% yoy to `71.6cr driven by higher other
income and lower tax rate. EBITDA grew at a muted 4.5% yoy due to the sharp
270bp contraction in margins on account of timing mismatch between rising input
costs and price hikes.
Outlook and Valuation: We expect 2HFY2011 to be significantly better than
1HFY2011 owing to the recent price hikes in Parachute, improving profitability in
international business, and 3) lower tax rate. However, due to the recent run up
in the stock price, at the CMP of `133, the stock is trading at 23.5x FY2012E
earnings, (in line with historical valuations) leaving little room for upside. Hence,
we recommend Neutral view on the stock.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 2,388 2,661 3,133 3,598
% chg 25.4 11.4 17.7 14.8
Net Profit (Adj) 203.8 241.5 299.5 347.5
% chg 28.6 18.5 24.0 16.0
EBITDA (%) 12.7 14.1 13.5 13.8
EPS (`) 3.3 3.9 4.9 5.7
P/E (x) 40.1 33.8 27.3 23.5
P/BV (x) 17.9 12.4 9.1 6.9
RoE (%) 53.0 43.6 38.5 33.4
RoCE (%) 35.7 32.5 30.4 30.7
EV/Sales (x) 3.5 3.1 2.6 2.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 27.6 22.5 19.5 16.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP `133
Target Price -
Investment Period -
Stock Info
Sector FMCG
Market Cap (` cr) 8,104
Beta 0.5
52 Week High / Low 153/94
Avg. Daily Volume 1,69,715
Face Value (`) 1
BSE Sensex 20,221
Nifty 6,082
Reuters Code MRCO.BO
Bloomberg Code MRCOIN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 63.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 6.3
FII / NRIs / OCBs 24.5
Indian Public / Others 6.2
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 12.2 20.8 5.1
Marico 6.5 33.7 111.7
Anand Shah
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 334
anand.shah@angelbroking.com
Chitrangda Kapur
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 323
chitrangdar.kapur@angebroking.com
Sreekanth P.V.S
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 331
sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com
Marico
Performance Highlights
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
October 26, 2010
2. Marico|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 26, 2010 2
Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg
Net Sales 778.8 692.2 12.5 1,568.9 1,388.9 13.0
Consumption of RM 388.0 326.2 18.9 791.3 676.3 17.0
(% of Sales) 49.8 47.1 50.4 48.7
Staff Costs 58.2 50.3 15.7 112.2 99.1 13.3
(% of Sales) 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.1
Advertising 94.9 91.4 3.9 188.7 176.3 7.0
(% of Sales) 12.2 13.2 12.0 12.7
Other Expenses 138.5 129.4 7.0 272.0 245.8 10.7
(% of Sales) 17.8 18.7 17.3 17.7
Total Expenditure 679.5 597.2 13.8 1,364.2 1,197.5 13.9
Operating Profit 99.3 95.0 4.5 204.7 191.4 6.9
OPM (%) 12.7 13.7 13.0 13.8
Interest 6.5 5.6 15.2 13.5 14.2 (5.4)
Depreciation 14.0 17.9 (21.9) 26.0 27.8 (6.5)
Other Income 7.1 4.2 70.4 11.6 7.3 57.9
PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 86.0 75.7 13.6 176.8 156.7 12.8
Extr. Income/(Expense) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (4.1)
PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 86.0 75.7 13.6 176.8 152.7 15.8
(% of Sales) 11.0 10.9 11.3 11.0
Provision for Taxation 12.6 13.3 0.0 28.8 34.3 (16.0)
(% of PBT) 14.7 17.5 16.3 22.5
Minority Interest 1.8 0.1 2.7 0.1
Reported PAT 71.6 62.4 14.8 145.3 118.3 22.8
PATM 9.2 9.0 9.3 8.5
Equity shares (cr) 60.9 60.9 60.9 60.9
Reported EPS (`) 1.2 1.0 14.7 2.4 1.9 22.8
Adjusted PAT 71.6 62.4 14.8 145.3 122.4 18.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Volume growth strong at 15% led by core brands
Marico posted top-line growth of 12.5% yoy to `779cr (`692cr), marginally below
our estimates, led by strong 15% volume growth. However, price cuts taken in core
brands in 2HFY2010 (to pass on deflation in key inputs) led to negative value growth
curtailing overall top-line growth. The full impact of the recent price hikes in
Parachute is likely to be felt in 2HFY2011. Its core brands Parachute (rigids) and
Saffola posted volume growth of 10% (6% overall) and 18% respectively, for the
quarter. Marico’s International business continued to post steady growth of 23% yoy
in constant currency terms (18% yoy reported growth adjusted for rupee
appreciation). Kaya solutions business posted strong growth of 28% yoy, boosted by
Derma Rx acquisition in May 2010, to `62.4cr. On a comparable basis, Kaya
(without Derma Rx) posted a 2% yoy growth.
3. Marico|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 26, 2010 3
Exhibit 2: Top-line growth driven by 15% volume growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
Earnings up 15%, marginally below estimates
In terms of earnings, Marico posted a growth of 15% yoy to `71.6cr (`62.4),
marginally below our estimates, boosted largely by a 283bp decline in tax rate due
to production from manufacturing facilities in tax free zones, higher contribution
from international business, and higher other income which rose 70% yoy.
Management has guided for an effective tax rate of ~16% in FY2011 and ~20% in
FY2012.
OPM down 98bp as gross margins contract 270bp
Marico witnessed contraction in gross margin by 270bp yoy as copra, rice bran oil
and HDPE prices were higher 26%, 23% and 5%, respectively. Prices of safflower oil
however, trended lower by 6% yoy during the quarter. The price cuts undertaken in
recruiter packs of Parachute and promotional offers on core brands undertaken
during the quarter exerted further pressure on gross margins. Hence, OPM
contracted by 98bp yoy to 12.7% despite 100bp yoy and 90bp yoy reduction in
advertising spend and other expenses, resulting in muted 4.5% yoy growth in EBITDA
to Rs99cr. We highlight that other expenses include provisioning of `8.2cr (`12.4cr)
for excise duty on CNO packs up to 200ml and Rs4.4cr sales tax refund adjusted for
which EBITDA grew 15.6% and OPM expanded 33bp to 12.3%.
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(yoy%)
`cr)
Top-line (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
4. Marico|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 26, 2010 4
Exhibit 3: Earnings growth moderate at ~15% levels
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Input costs on uptrend, OPM contracts
Source: Company, Angel Research
Steady growth in core brands
Parachute coconut oil in rigid packs recorded volume growth of 10% yoy during the
quarter aided by price cuts in recruiter packs. The company undertook ~5%
weighted average price hike in Parachute in August and is contemplating another
~6-7% hike to compensate for the ~15-20% inflation in copra prices.
The Saffola franchise registered a growth of 18% yoy during the quarter aided
partially by consumer offer on select SKUs. In terms of input costs, while rice bran oil
witnessed a spike of ~23%, safflower oil prices trended lower by ~6% during the
quarter. The company took ~5% price hike in select packs to cover this cost push.
During 4QFY2010, Saffola Arise (packaged rice) was launched and has been
accepted well (`400cr market, growing at over 20% in modern trade). Further, in
June 2010, Marico launched Saffola Oats (Oats is `120-140cr market, growing at
40%) in modern retail. Marico is targeting `30-35cr revenues between these two
brands in FY2011.
Exhibit 5: Steady volume growth in Parachute
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Saffola sustains high double-digit growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2QFY09 4QFY09 2QFY10 4QFY10 2QFY11
(yoy%)
(`cr)
PAT (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
12.2 12.7 13.3 13.8 13.7 14.8 14.1 13.3 13
45.9 44.9
49.6 49.7
52.9 52.7 56.1
49.0 50.2
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2QFY09 4QFY09 2QFY10 4QFY10 2QFY11
(%)
OPM Gross Margin
8
12
9 9 9
10
8
10
14
10
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
(%)
28
9
(3)
11
13
22
18
13
18 18
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
(%)
5. Marico|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 26, 2010 5
Hair oils grow 14%, plans to enter cooling oils on track
During the quarter, all Marico’s hair oils brands recorded healthy growth with the
hair oils portfolio in rigid packs registering ~14% yoy growth led by market share
gains (up 140bp yoy to 22% in volume terms). We highlight that part of pre-festive
sales have shifted to 3QFY2011 (included in 2QFY2010 base). Price cut in Shanti
Badam Amla has helped it gain market share in the Amla hair oil category and
currently stands at ~15%. The prototyping of Parachute hair oil in Andhra Pradesh
has been received well, and having achieved ~8% market share in the state, Marico
has extended the brand to Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. The quarter also witnessed
the launch of Parachute Advanced Ayurvedic hair oil (`235cr market size growing at
~19%) for hair fall control in Tamil Nadu. The product is priced at `35 for 100ml
and `66 for 200ml packs.
International business registers strong 23% growth
Marico’s International FMCG business grew a strong 23% yoy (18% yoy adjusted for
currency movement) during the quarter led by 18% volume growth and 5% price-led
growth. It now constitutes around 23% of the group turnover.
In Bangladesh, Parachute commanded a volume share of about 76% with shares in
recent months going up to ~79%. Hair dye code established itself as the second
largest hair dye brand in Bangladesh with a market share of 20%. The launch of
Saffola in 1QFY2011 has met with positive response and is expected to grow at a
healthy pace. In the Middle East, both Parachute Cream and Parachute Gold hair oil
experienced healthy growth. Marico’s business in Egypt continued to post steady
growth and maintained its market share at ~57%. The new plant in Egypt set up to
cater to the MENA region has now stabilised and is fully operational. South Africa
registered robust growth of 31% yoy driven by strong growth across brands.
Integration of the recently acquired OTC healthcare brand, Ingwe, in South Africa is
on track.
Exhibit 7: 23% growth in international business led by 18% vol growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
37
59
44 45
63
49
24
16
29
23
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
(%)
6. Marico|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 26, 2010 6
Kaya showing signs of revival, cuts down losses
Kaya posted a growth of 28% during the quarter led by the acquisition of Derma Rx.
Kaya posted a turnover of `62.4cr (including Derma Rx) and a growth of 2% yoy
before Derma Rx. Despite the closure of 6 clinics in the last quarter, there was a
sequential growth of ~9%. However, the same clinic revenue saw of a decline of
~3%. During the quarter, Kaya cut down losses to `3.5cr (`6.25cr) and including
Derma Rx, PBT stood at a positive `0.9cr.
Exhibit 8: Kaya revives with 28% yoy, 9% qoq growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2QFY09 4QFY09 2QFY10 4QFY10 2QFY11
(yoy%)
(`cr)
Top-line (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
7. Marico|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 26, 2010 7
Investment Rationale
Steady volumes in core brands, new prototypes promising: We expect Marico’s
core brands, Parachute and Saffola, to deliver sustainable volume growth of
6-8% and 14-15% respectively, during FY2010-12. Moreover, Marico’s entry
into cooling oils (~18% of hair oils market in volume terms) via Nihar Natural
Coconut Cooling Oil/Parachute Advansed Coconut Cooling Oil coupled with
initial success of Saffola Arise and introduction of Soffola oats (management
expects Rs35cr revenues in FY2011 from rice and oats) looks promising.
Robust growth in international business: Strong presence in emerging markets
coupled with series of acquisitions (Egypt, South Africa, Malaysia) have helped
Marico post strong growth in international business revenues, which now
contribute ~23% to consolidated revenues. We have modeled in a robust 22%
CAGR in international revenues over FY2010-12E and expect high incremental
contribution to overall profitability (better margins and lower tax rates).
Kaya’s long-term potential intact, near term consolidation: Over the last several
quarters, Marico has consolidated its Kaya operations in India post the dip in
same store sales growth due to service tax imposition and economic downturn.
However, post consolidation (6 clinics closed in India), we believe profitability is
likely to improve in Kaya and revenue traction is expected to pick up on a low
base. Moreover, acquisition of Derma Rx (Rs50cr revenue) is likely to be EPS
accretive and holds synergistic benefits for Kaya in India (management expects
the same to help product revenues increase from ~13% to 20% in Kaya).
Over FY2010-12E, we have modeled in 13% CAGR in standalone Kaya
revenues and 25% CAGR including Derma Rx revenues.
Outlook and Valuation
We maintain our positive stance on Marico driven by steady growth in its core
brands, growing contribution and profitability in international business and potential
recovery in the Kaya business. In terms of profitability, we believe 2HFY2011 would
be significantly better than 1HFY2011 aided by the recent price hikes in Parachute,
improving profitability in the international business, and 3) lower tax rate. However,
due to the recent run up in the stock price, at the CMP of `133, the stock is trading at
23.5x FY2012E earnings (in line with its historical valuations) leaving little room for
upside. Hence, we recommend Neutral view on the stock.
13. Marico|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 26, 2010 13
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: Research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Marico
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)