Will Martin IFPRI POLICY SEMINAR Visioning the future of Food Security January 18, 2017

1. Benefits of diversity
Will Martin
18 January 2017

2. Four approaches
• Cirad-INRA: Agrimonde Terra
– Qualitative scenarios with quantitative impacts
• Foodsecure: Quantifying broad scenarios
• SIMPLE: Focus on food & land demand
• Convergence: Is growth faster in poor ctries?

3. Agrimonde-Terra: Unexpected result
The urgent need to change pathway
Land use
changes
in Mha
Qualitative assumptions (sustainable intensification for cropping livestock and agroecological livestock)
 Secure access to land. Stabilization of global warming, carbon storage, energy transition. Crops –
livestock associations. Rediversification of crops and crop systems. Agricultural employment;
ecosystem services provided by land
Qualitative hypotheses
Insecure access to land
 dual system.
Runaway climate.
Globalized value chains.
Few services provided
by land.
Little employment in
agriculture.
Lack of nutriments.
Overweight and non-
comunicable diet-
related diseases.
Inequalities.
Poor biodiversity and
low resilience of
systems.

4. 4 Foodsecure Scenarios

5. Foodsecure: Prices will change
Wheat Real PriceRice Real Price
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2033
2036
2039
2042
2045
2048
PaascheIndex_Base2011,RMEAT
Meat Real Price

6. • Aggregate demand for food
• Supply
– Land
– Intermediates
– Productivity
SIMPLE Drivers

7. Monte Carlo
Analysis: 5,000
different model
predictions
SIMPLE: account for uncertainty in
drivers & economic responses
66% of simulations
show a LR price
decline
Source: Hertel, Baldos and van der
Mensbrugghe (2016)
But can’t rule out
significant price
rises if:
- Fertility
declines slow
- Income growth
is stronger
- Productivity
pessimists are
proven right

8. Convergence: Faster growth in South?
0.511.52
(tons/capita/year)
0
5000
1000015000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
GDP per capita, PPP 2005 $
Fitted Calorie Consumption Curve Fitted CE Consumption Curve

9. Growth convergence matters 2009-50
2009 2030 2050
CE Cons 6360 9326 12249
CE Prod 6360 10073 15019
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
(mil.Tons)
Uniform Growth
2009 2030 2050
CE Cons 6360 10107 14905
CE Prod 6360 10125 15978
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
(mil.Tons)
Rapid Convergence

10. Conclusions
 Forecasting is difficult
 Especially when it involves the future
 Can’t know what will happen
 Although broad regimes group key drivers
 More value in the deviations from a central projection
 Than in the projection itself?