Scenario analysis towards 2050

1. Food Security & Climate Change
Managing trade-offs in Future Scenarios
Ruerd Ruben

2.  Fieldwork practice (Central America)
 Steering interdisciplinary cooperation
(Sustainable land use & food Security)
 Civic development cooperation
 Policy assessment (impact analisis &
aid effectiveness)
 International dialogues
Personal Introduction
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3.  10.00 – 10.45 Introductory lecture (dilemmas & trade-offs)
 11.00 – 11.45 Forces of change (2 axes)
 12.00 – 12.30 Alternative worlds (best & worst case)
 13.30 – 14.30 Imagining futures
 14.30 – 15.15 Preparing presentation
 15.30 – 16.30 Presentation & discussion
Today’s program
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4. Complementarities
 SDG 1 & 2: Poverty & Hunger
 SDG 2 & 3: Nutrition & Health
 SDG 2 & 6: Food & (clean)Water
Tradeoffs
o SDG 2 & 13: Food & Climate
o SDG 8 & 12: Growth & Responsible
production
o SDG 8 & 10: Growth & Equality
SDGs : Interlinkages & Tradeoffs
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5.  Combining structure &
dynamics (Behaviour)
 Interrelated components
(levels & stages)
 Nested interactions (non
linear) - Nexus
 Adaptive change & feedback
loops (positive & negative)
 Interdisciplinary & multiple
agents
Systems approach
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Food
Environment
Food
Policies
Food
markets
Diet
choices

6. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
%population
Poverty
(<USD 1.90 a day, 2011
PPP; % of world
population)
Undernourishment
(calories, % of
population, world)
Stunting
(% of children under 5,
world)
Overweight
(BMI>25, % of
population developing
countries)
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Poverty & Hunger – global trends
Production of more food does NOT lead to elimination of
hunger

7. Growing sense of urgency
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8. Triple burden of hunger & malnutrition
Source: FAO
Overweight & Obesity
Micronutrient deficiencies
Stunting &
Wasting

9. Food System complexity

10. Drivers of food system change
Food supply systems
Agricultural
production
Food
storage,
transport
and trade
Food
transformatio
n
Food retail &
provisioning
Food environment
Consumer
Diet
quality
Multiple Agents
Government
Producers
Traders
Retailers
Households
Persons
Multiple Levels
Country
Region
Village
Neighbourhood
Family
Intra-household

11.  Increase fresh fruits & vegetables
intake
 water & energy requirements
 Balanced intake of animal-based
foods (meat, fish, eggs, dairy)
 land use & deforestation
 Affordability of healthy diet
 infrastructure & investments
Healthy Diets
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Global medium price of LANCET diet is $ 2.84
This exceeds per capita income for 1.6 billon people

12.  GHG Emissions
 Increasing temperatures
 Higher variability in rainfall
 Displacement of production areas
 Soil-water levels & flooding risk
 Uncertainty of crop yields
 Heatwaves & wildfires
Climate & Vulnerability
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13. Major causes of Climate Change
 land cleaning (burning)
 deforestation
 chemical fertilizers
 animals (methane)
 crop loss & waste
 cooling & transport
Climate Change
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Agriculture & food are
responsible for 25-30 %
of global emissions

14. Climate Change & Crop Yields
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15. Strategies
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Ex ante;
Reducing
causes of
emissions
Ex post:
Reducing
effects of
emissions

16. Reducing hunger
 Increase intake of vegetables
& animal-based products
 Higher dietary diversity (DD)
 More (ultra)processed foods
(Omega 3 & 6;saturated fat)
 Lower income share for food
(more for education & housing)
Hunger – Climate Tradeoffs
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Climate Change
Lower crop yields and more
fertilizer use for cereals
Less biodiversity
Loss of nutritional quality and
risks of food safety
More investments required in
CSA practices

17. How to develop scenario’s ?
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Identify
Critical Risk
Factors
Imagine
Alternative
Futures
Scenario
Pathway
Development

18.  Urbanization (rising middle
class)
 Population growth (markets
& trade)
 Food price volatility
 Diet change & Protein
Transition (GMO / CRISPR)
Global challenges
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19.  https://youtu.be/krU01hlCdxo
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVgxZnRT54E
 https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-
future/scenarios/new-lenses-on-the-future/earlier-scenarios.html
VIDEO
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20. Worst & Best case
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Economic development & State Control
Microsoft Internet FuturesOECD Development Futures

21. Shell scenario’s
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PROBLEMS
PARADOX
PATHWAYS
PANORAMA

22. Example : Hunger & Climate Futures (ODI)
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23. Example : Food System Futures
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24.  Time horizon : 2050
 Major tendencies (drivers of change)
 Possible outcomes (best & worst case)
 Imaganing futures (visualizing transition)
 Pahways of change
 Interest groups & power
Assignment
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25. Enjoy
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