全球各地新冠疫情發展及復甦步調不一，加上美中緊張局勢升級...

1. 31 July
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
0.5462%
10 -0.542%
•
0.72%
491 0.56%
570
• 0.15%
0.36%
0.57%
0.06%
1.72
3.03
3.16
3.36
2.51
2.23
1.07
1.12
2.17
2.13
2.37
2.05
4.34
2.06
1.97
4.50
-0.17
0.06
0.06
0.15
0.19
0.21
0.33
0.34
0.36
0.47
0.49
0.52
0.56
0.57
0.59
0.72
ESG ( )
-
-
% %
Bloomberg 2020/7/30

4. PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500 0.33%
•
600 3.78%
DAX 5.52%
•
225
1.81%
300 1.19%
• 2
0.80%
Bloomberg 2020/7/30
0.56
-0.23
0.39
1.63
3.47
0.23
11.82
8.08
5.14
4.71
8.74
9.29
4.09
12.61
9.48
10.47
-5.52
-3.78
-2.64
-2.32
-2.21
-1.81
-1.19
-1.06
-0.10
0.33
0.41
0.61
0.80
1.66
2.50
2.65
DAX
600
MSCI
RTS
H
Nikkei 225
300
SENSEX
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
BAML
MSCI
BOVESPA
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
2019 12
• 7 24 EIA
1,060 ( ) 5.26
Bloomberg 2020/7/30
-6.72
1.66
6.91
0.85
4.35
3.48
8.06
7.19
6.21
3.02
11.67
9.86
-3.73
-2.80
-1.74
-1.60
-0.85
-0.11
0.00
0.27
1.12
1.85
2.10
3.67
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 19 48
5 19
10
• 172
126 18
2
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/7/29
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• (FED)7
0% 0.25%( 1)
1,200 MBS FED
FED
• GDP 2 GDP
32.9%( 2)
34.6%
2 GDP
•
9 3
(PMCCF SMCCF)
(TALF) (PPP)
(MSLP) 7
1
( 2) GDP( )
( 1)
Bloomberg 2020/7/30

9. PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2020/7/30
( 1)
( 2)
•
( 1)
•
42
SeaWorld Entertainment
Graham Packaging 4
• 57% S&P 500
2 8
Facebook Amazon Alphabet Apple
Paypal GE Pfizer Qualcomm AMD
Boeing 3M LVMH NXP
• 7 Markit PMI
50 51.3( 2)
5
7 PMI 49.6
7 25
143

10. PAGE 9
• PMI 7
(PMI) 48.5 54.8( 1) 2018
6
PMI 50 56.7
19 30
• GDP 2 GDP
10.1% 1970
6
1,300
• 6
13.9% 8%
6
• 6
1.2%( 2) 4
A
GDP 259%
GDP 14.3%
( 1) PMI
( 2) (%)
Bloomberg 2020/7/30

11. PAGE 10
( 1) ( )
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/7/30
•
6
11.5%( 1) 5
5.5 2
• GDP
A+
2020
GDP 1.2% 2.7%
•
8.5% 12.5%
20 Das
14.7%
•
4.25% ( 2) 4
4.5%~5.5% 2021 3.5%~4.5%

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/7/31
/ /
8/3 7 ISM 53.5 52.6
8/3 1 GDP ( ) -2.8% -2.2%
8/3 7 PMI 51.2 51.2
8/3 7 Markit PMI - 47.2
8/3 7 Markit PMI - 51.6
8/4 6 ( ) - 7.3%
8/4 6 4.5% 8.0%
8/4 6 ( ) - -21.9%
8/5 7 ADP 1,515k 2,369k
8/5 7 ISM 55.1 57.1
8/5 6 ( ) 0.9% -5.1%
8/5 Selic 2.00% 2.25%
8/6 RBI 3.75% 4.00%
8/7 7 1,537k 4,800k
8/7 7 10.4% 11.1%
8/7 6 ( ) -2.7% -2.1%
8/7 6 ( ) 84.8 78.4

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1.92 (7/30)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 133 (7/30) 5 : 131
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.68 (7/30)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 427 (7/30) 5 : 358

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.37 (7/30)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.06 (7/30)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 570 (7/30) 5 : 482
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 491 (7/30) 5 : 453

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.61 (7/30)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.49 (7/30)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 495 (7/30) 5 : 396
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 726 (7/30) 5 : 493

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.13 (7/30)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.62 (7/30)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 459 (7/30) 5 : 368
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 394 (7/30) 5 : 322

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.92 (7/30)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.75 (7/30)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 744 (7/30) 5 : 582
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 275 (7/30) 5 : 217

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.4 (7/30) 5 : 16.0
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.0 (7/30) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.8 (7/30) 5 : 14.6
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.0 (7/30) 5 : 16.2

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.1 (7/30) 5 : 11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.0 (7/30) 5 : 12.0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.3 (7/30) 5 : 17.4
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 19.0 (7/30) 5 : 12.1
/ /

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 24.76 (7/30) 5 : 17.10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 40.7 (7/30) 5 : 63.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.9 (7/30) 5 : 64.9
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 433 (7/30) 5 : 384
/ /

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30
5 1
34.1% 0.8%
28.2% 0.1%
5 1
32.0% 0.8%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
33.1% 0.8%
29.5% 0.1%
5 1
30.3% 0.3%
25.5% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109208
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
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