www.fao.org/climate-change AMICAF (Analysis and Mapping of Impacts under Climate Change for Adaptation and Food Security is a Project funded by Japan. The objective of the programme is to fill the Climate change ‘knowledge’ gap by working towards a strategic response to climate change in agriculture. These slides describe the following: 1. Overview of AMICAF 2. Launching AMICAF 2nd phase 3. Activities in the Project 4. AMICAF’s added value 5. Timeline © FAO

1. Analysis and Mapping of Impacts
under Climate Change for Adaptation
and Food Security (AMICAF)
1st phase (2012-2015) and 2nd phase (2015-2018 Feb)
Hiroki SASAKI
Climate and Environment Division, FAO

2. Agenda
1. Overview of AMICAF
2. Launching AMICAF 2nd phase
3. Activities in the Project
4. AMICAF’s added value
5. Timeline

3. 1. Overview of AMICAF

4. What is AMICAF?
 Analysis and Mapping of Impacts under Climate
Change for Adaptation and Food Security (AMICAF)
 Trust Fund Project, funded by Japan
 AMICAF 1st phase- November 2011 to March 2015
 Participated countries in the 1st phase: The
Philippines and Peru
 AMICAF 2nd phase (South-South Cooperation) , three
years project

5. Project Background
 APEC Ministerial Meeting on Food Security
(October 2010, Niigata, Japan)
Included in Action Plan:
 33: “Hold workshop to disseminate
feasible adaptation and mitigation
measures identified by the food security
mapping system incorporating climate
change factorable data”.
Japan funded FAO
project: AMICAF

6. Objectives
Filling the Climate Change ‘Knowledge’ Gap
towards Strategic Response to Climate
Change
 By collecting and analyzing data on rainfall,
temperature, water discharge from streams as well
as crop, hydrology and economic modelling, the
project enables governments to make evidence-
based climate change adaptation planning.
 AMICAF try to bridge climate change impact
assessment, food insecurity vulnerability
analysis and livelihood adaptation approaches.

7. 2. Launching 2nd phase

8. AMICAF 2nd phase-
(AMICAF-SSC)
 The Donor (Japan) decided to support a new
project in two more countries, one in Asia
and one in Latin America, utilizing SSC
scheme.
 Project Period: Oct 2014 – Feb 2018
 Total Approved Budget: US$ 1,243,126

9. AMICAF structure
(1st phase and 2nd phase)
Component 1:
Impacts Analysis of
Climate Change on
Agriculture
Component 2:
Food Insecurity
Vulnerability Analysis
at household level
Component 3:
Enhance Community
Capacities to Adapt
Climate Change
Component 4: Policy
and Planning Support
AMICAF-SSC (Indonesia and Paraguay)
Guidance materials for promoting the AMICAF approach in other
countries
South-South Cooperation from AMICAF 1
country
Only in Asian countries
Only in Asian countries

10. Progress in 2015
Discussion with Minister and Vice Minister in August 2015,
Asuncion, Paraguay
Inception workshop in November 2015, Jakarta, Indonesia
 Scoping mission and selection of two recipient
countries (Indonesia and Paraguay)

11. Progress in 2016
Inception meetinginNov 2016,Asuncion,ParaguayComponent 2traininginJuly2016,Bogor, Indonesia
 Several trainings in Indonesia
 Kick-off meeting, technical meeting, workshop
Component 2SSC workshop withPilipinoexperts inSeptember 2016,Bogor, Indonesia AMICAF/MOSAICC workshop withexperts from Peru, Uruguay,
Guatemala,andColombiainDec 2016,Asuncion,Paraguay

12. 3. Activities in the Project

13. Component 1 :
Impacts of Climate Change
on Agriculture
Nation-wide assessment of projected
impacts of climate change on agriculture
at the sub-national scale

14. MOSAICC(MOdelling System for Agricultural
Impacts of Climate Change)
Statistical climate
downscaling models
Historical weather
observations
Downscaled climate projections
Hydrological model
Crop growth
simulation models
GCM low resolution
climate projections
Historical discharge
records
Water availability
for irrigation
Historical water
use statistics
Historical yield data
Yield projections
Crop parameters
Soil data
Technology trend
scenarios
Soil and land use data
Dam data
Food insecurity vulnerability analysis (Component2)
Climate Change Impact
Analysis(Component1)

15.  Are some regions more affected than other
regions by temperature increase or
precipitation increase/decrease?
 Are some regions more affected than other
regions by productivity changes?
 Are some regions more affected than other
regions by river flow changes?
Contribute to Policy
Questions on Climate
Impact

16. % change in precipitation (A1B, BCM2 model) from 1971-1999 to 2011-2040
BCM2 A1B and A2 Tmin projections aggregated to 79 provinces (2011 - 2040 mean)

17. • Climate change
makes differentiated
impacts on provincial
yield; some positive;
others negative
• Yields in rain fed
areas will be more
negatively affected
than irrigated areas,
both in the A1B and
A2 scenarios at the
BCM2 and CNCM3
climate models
Rainfed rice yield
change 2011-2040
vs 1971-2000

18. Water balance PREC-PET (map) and Discharge
(box plots) for 3 GCMs x 2 emission scenarios
2011-2040

19. Changes in discharge by season and agreement
among 3 GCMs x 2 emission scenarios
2011-2040 vs 1971-2000

20. Component 2:
Food Insecurity
Vulnerability Analysis
Characterizing vulnerability to food
insecurity under climate change, and
identifying variables associated with
highest levels of vulnerability

21. Connecting Component 1 and 2
Component1:
ImpactsofClimateChangeonAgriculture
Component 2:
Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis

22.  Are some regions more affected than
other regions in terms of food security?
 Should we allocate more resources to
help more vulnerable regions to adapt
to climate change?
Contribute to Policy
Questions: vulnerability to
food insecurity under
climate change

23. Projected Propensity to Experience Hunger
(Philippines)
Present Future

24. Component 3:
Enhance Community
Capacities to Adapt
Climate Change
Link impact assessments and
vulnerability analysis with adaptation
actions on the ground

25. Typhoon tracking by FFS participants
Fabricating manual rain gauge Varietal evaluation during Field Day
Component 3 Livelihood Adaptation to
Climate Change:
Climate-smart Farmer Field School
Community hazard assessment
• Organize Farmer Field
School (FFS) Workshop
on CC adaptation
management in
Indonesia as SSC
scheme
 Assess current
management practice
in target communities
(take into consider
existing initiatives) +
FAO projects in the past
 Farmer Field School

26. Component 4:
Policy and Planning
Support
A workshop to review component 1 to 3
toward evidence-based policy planning

27. 4. AMICAF’s added value

28. What is added value for
Recipient Countries ?
 Capacity development of country’s
experts is a focus
 In the end, experts produce evidence-
base of climate change impacts and
vulnerability using their own data

29. Final outcome of AMICAF
 Policy briefs for each country (10-15
pages)
 It also intends to share the knowledge,
techniques and experiences obtained in the
projects through technical guidance
materials.
 Technical reports for each
component/sub-component
 The Philippines, Peru, Indonesia and Paraguay

30. Thank very much.
Hiroki SASAKI,
Climate and Environment Division, FAO
Hiroki.sasaki@fao.org