Food Security Under Stress


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IICA-OAS Food Security Conference
Washington DC, October 1, 2009

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Food Security Under Stress

  1. 1. Food Security under Stress Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute IICA-OAS Food Security Conference Washington DC, October 1, 2009
  2. 2. Overview <ul><li>Poverty, food insecurity, new complex risks – now and emerging </li></ul><ul><li>Agenda for research, investment, and action </li></ul>
  3. 3. Rising number of hungry people in the developing world Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009 . (in million) >1 bil. WFS target
  4. 4. Hunger “serious” in parts of the region Source: von Grebmer et al., IFPRI 2008 . 2008 Global Hunger Index (GHI)
  5. 5. Sub-national poverty ca. 2005 ($2/day) Prevalence Number Source: Stan Wood et al. (IFPRI) 2009.
  6. 6. High inequality in LAC Source: POVCAL, based on household surveys .
  7. 7. Food riots a mass phenomenon when prices spike Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Price are data from FAO 2009. Price spike
  8. 8. Distributional impacts of the food crisis Source: M. Torero (IFPRI) 2009. Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Peru Poverty (%) Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Deepening 64.1 43.7 67.8 23.4 58.0 22.8 70.6 39.8 Exit 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Entry 2.2 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.0 2.3 1.8 Change 2.1 2.3 1.1 1.8 1.5 2.9 2.3 1.7
  9. 9. Calorie consumption – Honduras Before (blue) and after (red) of the increase in prices Households with 0 -2 years old kids National level
  10. 10. Increased speculation in food markets, and link to energy price Source: Chicago Board of Trade 2009. Grain and oilseed futures and options - Ave. daily volume And closure of commodity exchanges (India, China, etc.)
  11. 11. The financial crisis and the recession complicates food security <ul><ul><li>Less capital available today and in the future for the agriculture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More debt specially for small holders which had already invested in the expansion of their production </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shift of attention of policies for agriculture and reduction of public investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduction of employment and wages of low skill workers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduction of remittances </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Food system now also affected by financial volatility and recession Source: Data from IMF 2009; Ratha, Mohapatra, and Silwal. 2009; UNCTAD 2009, and World Bank 2009.
  13. 13. <ul><li>Climate change, agriculture and food security </li></ul>
  14. 14. Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: Rainfed maize Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009. Global production: -16%
  15. 15. Climate change impact: Global food prices Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.
  16. 16. Agriculture must be on the 2009 Copenhagen agenda, but how? <ul><li>Investment: agriculture-related investments, as part of a Global Climate Change Fund </li></ul><ul><li>Incentives: phase in incentives first to reduce emissions and support technological change </li></ul><ul><li>Information: Establish comprehensive information and monitoring services of land use and soils for verification purposes </li></ul>
  17. 17. In sum: Risk patterns and emerging change <ul><li>Risk of high and volatile food prices </li></ul><ul><li>Financial and economic shocks driving volatility further </li></ul><ul><li>Climate change accelerating volatility </li></ul><ul><li>Political volatilities and fragile states with increasingly reduced capacity to address risks </li></ul>
  18. 18. Overview <ul><li>Poverty, food insecurity, new complex risks – now and emerging </li></ul><ul><li>Agenda for research, investment, and action </li></ul>
  19. 19. Agenda: A new pro-poor risk prevention, reduction, and management strategy <ul><li>Promote agriculture growth with technology and institutional innovations to prevent risks </li></ul><ul><li>Innovate in insurance systems </li></ul><ul><li>Facilitate open trade and reduce market volatility </li></ul><ul><li>Expand social protection and child nutrition action </li></ul>
  20. 20. Actions for agric. productivity enhancement that serves food security <ul><li>Access to inputs (e.g. quality seeds, fertilizer, feed, veterinary drugs) </li></ul><ul><li>Access to services, extension </li></ul><ul><li>Investment in rural infrastructure (rural roads, electrification, water and irrigation) </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural research and innovation: triple the investment incl. the CGIAR by 2020 </li></ul>
  21. 21. Innovate in insurance systems <ul><li>Develop new insurance products (e.g. index-based weather insurance) </li></ul><ul><li>Explore new delivery channels (e.g. NGOs, community support networks) </li></ul><ul><li>Invest in information and technology (e.g. geographic information databases) </li></ul><ul><li>Provide smart insurance subsidies for the poor </li></ul>
  22. 22. Calm markets and facilitate open trade <ul><li>Keep trade open even at times of global and regional food shortage </li></ul><ul><li>Establish grain reserves policy at global level as a risk management tool to prevent spikes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>shared physical reserves, and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>virtual reserve (a new institution at global level ) </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Invest in social protection and child nutrition action <ul><li>Protective actions e.g.: </li></ul><ul><li>Cash transfers </li></ul><ul><li>Employment-based food security programs </li></ul><ul><li>Preventive actions e.g.: </li></ul><ul><li>School feeding (new insights) </li></ul><ul><li>Early childhood nutrition programs </li></ul>Focus on children, women, and poorest
  24. 24. IFPRI LAC research strategy for <ul><ul><li>Target countries and regions with high food insecurity levels and prevalence of undernourishment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Analyze the range of problems of poor people, both in urban and rural areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Agricultural productivity opportunities and sustainability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Trade and investment opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>In partnership with regional and national organizations </li></ul>