Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Definition of ScenariosScenarios can be described as instruments which aid decision-makers by...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Justification and RationaleHigh possibility that the Climate is changing and in the most dras...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Different regional developments – Southeast, Northeast and Central West;Great interest in the...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Use of large areas;Competition with other agricultural crops;Existence of different interests...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Justification and RationaleExpansionPotential, Pressure, Demand,Economical Interest, Land, Te...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Source: http://www.agritempo.gov.br/climaeagricultura/cana.htmlFuture Scenarios for 2020, 205...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Source: http://www.agritempo.gov.br/climaeagricultura/cafe.htmlFuture Scenarios for 2020, 205...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Reference: Pinto, H.S. & Assad, E.D. Global Warming and the New Geographyof Agricultural Prod...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Scenario s– Arabica Coffee – São Paulo and GoiásReference: CBAGRO 2001 – Proceedings, v.II, p...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Reference: PAB, v.39, n.11, p.1057-1064, nov., 2004Scenarios – Arabica Coffee - Brazil
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Reference: PAB, v.39, n.11, p.1057-1064, nov., 2004Scenarios – Arabica Coffee – Minas Gerais
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Agro-Ecological Zoning of Sugar Cane - 2009http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/videos/documentary-sug...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011http://www.agricultura.gov.br/politica-agricola/zoneamento-agricola/portarias-segmentadas-por...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011http://www.agritempo.gov.br/publish/zoneamento/SP.htmlAgricultural Zoning – Ministry of Agric...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Scientific Problem and Challenge“Elaboration of ethanol production sceneries and the impacts ...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011DemographyClimatologyPoliticsFood SecurityModelingScientificCommunicationGeneticEngineeringGe...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011DemographyClimatologyPoliticsFood SecurityModelingScientificCommunicationGeneticEngineeringGe...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Methodology
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011MethodologyProduction = f (Climate Model,Availability of Lands,Agricultural Technology,Geneti...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Global Objectivesi. Generate scenarios for the production of alcohol obtained from acombinati...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Specific Objectivesi. Further the studies of impacts on climate change on agriculture –Coordi...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011vi. Evaluate the relationship between the expansion of the cultivation ofsugar cane and the i...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Results and Products – 1/2i. Scenarios for the production of alcohol for two representativere...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011viii. Effects of the various technologies available in the adaptation toclimate change;ix. Su...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Connections - ExamplesSCAF – Macro 1Brazilian Model of theGlobal Climate System
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Climate Models - ClustersCCSM3GISSEHIPCM4INCM3CNRM-CM3.0CSIROECHAM5ECHO-GFGOALSGFDL2HadCM3Had...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Preliminary ResultsTechnological Innovation and Organization in Agrometeorology: Astudy of th...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011ActivitiesThree administrative meetings – December, February and March;Technical Meeting abou...
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Webpage – Version 1http://www.cpa.unicamp.br/sugarcane_fapesp
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011http://www.cpa.unicamp.br/sugarcane_fapesp/htWebpage – Version 1 – Hyperbolic Tree
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Webpage – Version 1 – Flip Bookhttp://www.cpa.unicamp.br/sugarcane_fapesp/flip
Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change Workshop

205 views

Published on

Geração de cenários de produção de álcool como apoio para a formulação de políticas públicas aplicadas à adaptação do setor sucroalcooleiro nacional às mudanças climáticas.

Published in: Education, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
205
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change Workshop

  1. 1. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011
  2. 2. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Definition of ScenariosScenarios can be described as instruments which aid decision-makers by providing a context for planning and programming,lowering the level of uncertainty and raising the level ofknowledge. (Eleonora Masini, 1993).Scenarios are not forecasts. They focus on relevant aspects andare challenging and meaningful images about the future.Scenario Working – Morphological Futures StudiesAnita Rubin – Finland Futures Research Center, University of Turkuhttp://www.cost.eu/download/Thinking%20in%20Scenarios_Anita%20Rubin
  3. 3. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Justification and RationaleHigh possibility that the Climate is changing and in the most drastic way(Scenario);Long time to develop techniques for mitigation and adaptation forClimate Change;Alternative for mitigation of GHGs and adaptation for Climate Change;Importance of agribusiness for Brazilian society and economy;Importance of sugar cane for São Paulo and Brazil;Traditional agricultural crop (~500 years of history);Adaptation is possible and desirable;Knowledge acquired and available in São Paulo;Costs and impacts of inaction can be very high (need of planning);
  4. 4. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Different regional developments – Southeast, Northeast and Central West;Great interest in the expansion of its production;Production of food, energy, fuel and chemistry;Can supply domestic and foreign markets, simultaneously;Constraints against expansion – environmental sectors;Competition with oil sector and other types of energy;Typical factors of an agricultural production (seasonality, inelasticity,dependence of uncontrollable factors, such as the climate) - Stock;Increasing use of technology;Justification and Rationale
  5. 5. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Use of large areas;Competition with other agricultural crops;Existence of different interests - e.g. population (fuel, food andenvironment);Development linked to several sectors (agriculture, industry, energy,environment, foreign trade, infrastructure, demography, food security,national and international policies);Risk of being a temporary solution for the climate change;Starting point of methodology well-defined, consolidated and used forseveral years in the definition of public policies in the agricultural sector;Great opportunity for business and development X Impacts (social,economical and environmental)Justification and Rationale
  6. 6. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Justification and RationaleExpansionPotential, Pressure, Demand,Economical Interest, Land, TechnologyConstraints& ImpactsEnvironment, Food Security, Tax BurdenDemographic Dynamics, InfrastructureHuman Health, Harvest Forecast
  7. 7. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Source: http://www.agritempo.gov.br/climaeagricultura/cana.htmlFuture Scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2070 – Sugar Cane - Brazil
  8. 8. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Source: http://www.agritempo.gov.br/climaeagricultura/cafe.htmlFuture Scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2070 – Arabica Coffee – Center South Brazil
  9. 9. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Reference: Pinto, H.S. & Assad, E.D. Global Warming and the New Geographyof Agricultural Production in Brazil. British Embassy, 2008.Scenarios – Cotton, Rice, Coffee, Sugar Cane, Beans, Sunflower, Cassava, Maize, Soybean
  10. 10. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Scenario s– Arabica Coffee – São Paulo and GoiásReference: CBAGRO 2001 – Proceedings, v.II, p.605-606 - Fortaleza (CE)
  11. 11. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Reference: PAB, v.39, n.11, p.1057-1064, nov., 2004Scenarios – Arabica Coffee - Brazil
  12. 12. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Reference: PAB, v.39, n.11, p.1057-1064, nov., 2004Scenarios – Arabica Coffee – Minas Gerais
  13. 13. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Agro-Ecological Zoning of Sugar Cane - 2009http://www.itamaraty.gov.br/videos/documentary-sugarcane-agroecological-zoning-in-brazilhttp://www.cnps.embrapa.br/zoneamento_cana_de_acucar/
  14. 14. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011http://www.agricultura.gov.br/politica-agricola/zoneamento-agricola/portarias-segmentadas-por-ufAgricultural Zoning – Ministry of Agriculture
  15. 15. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011http://www.agritempo.gov.br/publish/zoneamento/SP.htmlAgricultural Zoning – Ministry of Agriculture
  16. 16. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Scientific Problem and Challenge“Elaboration of ethanol production sceneries and the impacts associated,in the coming decades, in order to establish public policies that canpromote the adaptation of the sugar and alcohol sector to the climatechanges, considering their great social, economic and environmentalresponsibilities in the coming years.”“Consider, together, several factors directly related to the cultivation ofsugar cane, to the production technologies of its main products (sugar andalcohol) and the impacts directly related to their performance (in theenvironment, in the food and nutritional security, in the demographicdynamics and in the human health).”
  17. 17. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011DemographyClimatologyPoliticsFood SecurityModelingScientificCommunicationGeneticEngineeringGeo-technologyAgricultureHealthMethodology
  18. 18. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011DemographyClimatologyPoliticsFood SecurityModelingScientificCommunicationGeneticEngineeringGeo-technologyAgricultureHealthMethodology
  19. 19. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Methodology
  20. 20. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011MethodologyProduction = f (Climate Model,Availability of Lands,Agricultural Technology,Genetical Characteristics,Population,Financial Resources,Politics,Infra-structure,Industrial Technology,...)
  21. 21. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Global Objectivesi. Generate scenarios for the production of alcohol obtained from acombination of the determinant factors of this production, for tworepresentative regions in Brazil (one developed and anotherinterested in expanding) in three different periods;ii. Analysis of the adaptability of an important productive sector ofthe country to the climate changes;iii. Assess the adaptation capacity of the society to the climatechanges due to the complexity of the interrelations of the studiedsector with political, economic, social and technical fields.
  22. 22. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Specific Objectivesi. Further the studies of impacts on climate change on agriculture –Coordination: A.M.H.Ávila (Cepagri);ii. Evaluate the level of Food and Nutritional Security associated tothe expansion of the sugar cane crop – Coordination: W.Belik (Nepa);iii. Evaluate the impact of innovation policies to meet the futuredemands of ethanol and in the adaptation of Brazilian agriculture toclimate changes – Coordination: A.T.Furtado (IG);iv. Improve the harvest forecast of sugar cane, making it moreobjective and accurate – Coordination: J.Zullo Jr (Cepagri) – Link withAgrodataMine;v. Estimate the evolution of the applied genetic engineering, mainly, tothe sugar cane growing and the potential for industrial productionof cellulosic ethanol – Coordination: A.P.de Souza (Cbmeg);
  23. 23. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011vi. Evaluate the relationship between the expansion of the cultivation ofsugar cane and the impact on urban and rural populations – Coordination:T.Aidar and R.Baeninger (Nepo);vii. Develop methods for generating scenarios of climate change impactsbased on data and information from several sources and having differentcharacteristics – Coordination: J.Zullo Jr (Cepagri);viii.Improve and deepen the scientific communication in the climate changearea – Coordination: V.R.T.Camargo (Labjor/Nudecri);ix. Examine the circulation of the scientific communication through existingpublic policies – Coordination: C.R.C.Pfeiffer (Nudecri);x. Definition of public policies related to the expansion of the production ofethanol fuel in Brazil, due to the mitigation interest of the emissions ofgreenhouse gases, considering the need of adaptation of the nationalagriculture to the climate changes – Coordination: P.A.B.Schulz (FCA).Specific Objectives
  24. 24. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Results and Products – 1/2i. Scenarios for the production of alcohol for two representativeregions in Brazil (one developed and another interested in expanding)in three different periods;ii. Identification of three to five models for forecasting climatechanges that are best suitable to Brazil and to impacts andvulnerability evaluations of crops to climate change;iii. Evaluations of the climate change impact in the chosen test-areas;iv. Identification of the relation between the expansion of plantationsof sugar cane and the food and nutritional security;v. Determination of the relation between the expansion of planted areaswith sugar cane and the demographic dynamics;vi. Effects of the modification of the atmospheric composition due tothe use of ethanol fuel on human health;vii. Deepen communications, for several different public, on the issue ofclimate change in multiple media;
  25. 25. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011viii. Effects of the various technologies available in the adaptation toclimate change;ix. Suggestion for public policies to the adaptation of the production ofethanol fuel to the climate change;x. Better knowledge of the relation between the climate and theproduction of sugar cane;xi. Improve of the accuracy, objectivity and anticipation of the harvestsof sugar cane forecast methods;xii. Evaluation of the utilization of the agrometeorological productsavailable on the Internet, especially on the pages of Cepagri andAgritempo, by the farmers, managers and technicians of the sugar andalcohol sector;xiii. Methodology that allow to integrate the several different knowledgewith the purpose to achieve the overall objective of the Project;xiv. Training of qualified staff in the area of climate change.Results and Products – 2/2
  26. 26. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Connections - ExamplesSCAF – Macro 1Brazilian Model of theGlobal Climate System
  27. 27. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Climate Models - ClustersCCSM3GISSEHIPCM4INCM3CNRM-CM3.0CSIROECHAM5ECHO-GFGOALSGFDL2HadCM3HadGem1MIROCmedMRICGCMM.Sc - Unicamp: C.Macedo Jr. – Fapesp 2009/07081-0
  28. 28. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Preliminary ResultsTechnological Innovation and Organization in Agrometeorology: Astudy of the network system dynamics of “Agritempo”.M. D. Bambini (Embrapa Informática) – M.Sc – IG/Unicamp –March/22/2011 – A.T.FurtadoUse of agrometeorological models to estimate the production ofsugarcane in Brazilian Savanna: Risks and Future ScenariosB. A. Evangelista (Embrapa Cerrados) – PhD – Feagri/Unicamp –February/18/2011
  29. 29. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011ActivitiesThree administrative meetings – December, February and March;Technical Meeting about Climate Modeling – Dr. Chou Sin Chan(Cptec/Inpe) – April/18/2011 – Nepo/Unicamp;Technical Meeting about Agricultural Zoning – J.Zullo Jr –May/26/2011 – 10h30 - Embrapa Informática;Technical Meeting about the Agrometeorological Service Agritempo –M.Bambino (IG/Unicamp and Embrapa Informática) - June;
  30. 30. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Webpage – Version 1http://www.cpa.unicamp.br/sugarcane_fapesp
  31. 31. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011http://www.cpa.unicamp.br/sugarcane_fapesp/htWebpage – Version 1 – Hyperbolic Tree
  32. 32. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011Webpage – Version 1 – Flip Bookhttp://www.cpa.unicamp.br/sugarcane_fapesp/flip
  33. 33. Workshop - FRPGCC May/11/2011

×