Analytical
Tools
TO ASSIST CSA
POLICY MAKING
M A R K W . R O S E G R A N T
ENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY DIVISION
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, WASHINGTON, DC
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
productivity
resilience
/adaptation
low GHG
emission
CLIMATE-SMART
AGRICULTURE
COMPONENTS
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
TECHNOLOGYASSESSMENT
climate
smart?
Yield risk
under CC
Yield bounce
after shock
GHG emission
against baseline
Technology
characterization
CLIMATE-
SMARTNESS
Productivity
Resilience
GHG Emission
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
CLIMATE-
SMARTNESS
Productivity
Resilience
GHG Emission
Overall
Decision-makers will need to
choose technologies or
investments accounting for
tradeoffs.
TECHNOLOGYASSESSMENT
Need for multi-objective decision-making tools
that rationalize the evaluation of choices.
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
WHATDOESCSA MEANFOR…
 the country as a whole?
 other non-ag land-uses?
 the global economy?
ECONOMICFEASIBILITY
ASSESSMENT
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
Economically
viable?
Large-scale effects
+ other land-uses
Wide uptake of
CSA options
Policy
scenario
analysis
CLIMATE-
SMARTNESS
Productivity
Resilience
GHG Emission
Overall
Global
economic
forces
ECONOMICFEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
WHERE
Geospatial
Baseline &
Targeting
WHICH
Commodity
Priority
Setting
WHAT
Technology
Characterization
& Inventory
+
Integrated
Impact
Assessments
SUPPORTINGTOOLS
HOW
Policy
Simulation
& Scenario-
Making Tools
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
POLICY
SIMULATION
EXAMPLE
Simulating the
aggregate
effects of crop
choices by
individual risk-
averse farmers
due to climate
change.
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
AdoptionForum SustainabilityPrioritization
1
2
3
Prioritizing
agricultural
commodities
according to
CSA criteria
Stakeholder
engagement
and scenario
exploration
Economic
effects of
wide-scale
adoption of
CSA
Evaluation of
long-term
economic &
financial
sustainability
POLICY-MAKINGENABLINGENVIRONMENT
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
Rainfall and
Drought
History
Commodity
Priority
Setting Tool
Agritech
Toolbox
SUPPORTINGTOOLS
EXAMPLES
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
CSAINDICATORSFORCOUNTRYLEVEL
EXAMPLES
Water efficient
management
Soil fertility
management
TECHNOLOGY
Road quality and
density
Accuracy of
weather and
climate forecasts
INFRA-
STRUCTURE
Social safety nets
Planning with CC
risk assessment
POLICY
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
CONCLUDING
REMARKS
CSA forces us to shifts the emphasis from
policies that aim at a single targets to policies
that have multiple objectives.
CSA changes the planning time horizon:
policies and analyses necessarily span
long time periods of 20-30 years.
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
CONCLUDING
REMARKS
Therefore, CSA requires the use of
integrated modeling frameworks that
work at multiple geographical scales to:
1) Prioritize investments and provide an
accurate understanding of tradeoffs
2) Design long-term economically and politically
sustainable policies
analytical tools
TO ASSIST CSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015
CONCLUDING
REMARKS
More importantly, given
its complexity, CSA
requires an even closer
collaboration between
policy makers and
research community.

Analytical Tools To Assist Climate-Smart Agriculture Policy Making

  • 1.
    Analytical Tools TO ASSIST CSA POLICYMAKING M A R K W . R O S E G R A N T ENVIRONMENT AND PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY DIVISION INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, WASHINGTON, DC
  • 2.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 productivity resilience /adaptation low GHG emission CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE COMPONENTS
  • 3.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 TECHNOLOGYASSESSMENT climate smart? Yield risk under CC Yield bounce after shock GHG emission against baseline Technology characterization CLIMATE- SMARTNESS Productivity Resilience GHG Emission
  • 4.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 CLIMATE- SMARTNESS Productivity Resilience GHG Emission Overall Decision-makers will need to choose technologies or investments accounting for tradeoffs. TECHNOLOGYASSESSMENT Need for multi-objective decision-making tools that rationalize the evaluation of choices.
  • 5.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 WHATDOESCSA MEANFOR…  the country as a whole?  other non-ag land-uses?  the global economy? ECONOMICFEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT
  • 6.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 Economically viable? Large-scale effects + other land-uses Wide uptake of CSA options Policy scenario analysis CLIMATE- SMARTNESS Productivity Resilience GHG Emission Overall Global economic forces ECONOMICFEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT
  • 7.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 WHERE Geospatial Baseline & Targeting WHICH Commodity Priority Setting WHAT Technology Characterization & Inventory + Integrated Impact Assessments SUPPORTINGTOOLS HOW Policy Simulation & Scenario- Making Tools
  • 8.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 POLICY SIMULATION EXAMPLE Simulating the aggregate effects of crop choices by individual risk- averse farmers due to climate change.
  • 9.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 AdoptionForum SustainabilityPrioritization 1 2 3 Prioritizing agricultural commodities according to CSA criteria Stakeholder engagement and scenario exploration Economic effects of wide-scale adoption of CSA Evaluation of long-term economic & financial sustainability POLICY-MAKINGENABLINGENVIRONMENT
  • 10.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 Rainfall and Drought History Commodity Priority Setting Tool Agritech Toolbox SUPPORTINGTOOLS EXAMPLES
  • 11.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 CSAINDICATORSFORCOUNTRYLEVEL EXAMPLES Water efficient management Soil fertility management TECHNOLOGY Road quality and density Accuracy of weather and climate forecasts INFRA- STRUCTURE Social safety nets Planning with CC risk assessment POLICY
  • 12.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 CONCLUDING REMARKS CSA forces us to shifts the emphasis from policies that aim at a single targets to policies that have multiple objectives. CSA changes the planning time horizon: policies and analyses necessarily span long time periods of 20-30 years.
  • 13.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 CONCLUDING REMARKS Therefore, CSA requires the use of integrated modeling frameworks that work at multiple geographical scales to: 1) Prioritize investments and provide an accurate understanding of tradeoffs 2) Design long-term economically and politically sustainable policies
  • 14.
    analytical tools TO ASSISTCSA POLICY MAKING | GFIA 2015 CONCLUDING REMARKS More importantly, given its complexity, CSA requires an even closer collaboration between policy makers and research community.