Ifad Ifpri Climate Change

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Ifad Ifpri Climate Change

  1. 1. Agriculture and Climate Change Research Needs Gerald Nelson Senior Research Fellow Presented at IFAD-IFPRI Joint Program In Policy Innovation and INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Communication Inaugural Workshop, 24 March 2009
  2. 2. Presentation Overview  Climate change will affect agriculture • Higher global temperatures, more precipitation, more variability and extreme events • Likely negative effects: Where and how much?  Mitigation: Agriculture can • Reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses • Act as a sink for other sectors  Adaptation/resilience: Agriculture will need • New varieties, more infrastructure, changes in management practices and policies • International institutions that support resilience globally INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 2
  3. 3. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE Page 3
  4. 4. Rising average temperatures Page 4 Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
  5. 5. … could increase much more Page 5 Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)
  6. 6. Consequences: Higher temperatures and more but shifting precipitation… Dec- Feb Jun- Aug Page 6 GCM3.1 (T63), SRES A1B Scenario Hadley Model, SRES A1B Scenario
  7. 7. … but uncertainty about where and how much Dec- Feb Jun- Aug Hadley Model, SRES A1B Scenario Page 7
  8. 8. Variability will increase 100-year drought events in Europe: Two climate models 2020’s 2070’s Figure 3.6 in Kundzewicz, Mata, et al. (2007) Page 8
  9. 9. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture What did we think in the mid-1990s?  No problems • Agricultural effects of climate change would be manageable • Negative yield effects in temperate regions buffered by trade • CO2 fertilization important • Increased trade flows needed INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 9
  10. 10. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture What did we think in the early 2000s?  Potential problems • Climate change manageable • Production in DCs benefit; declines in LDCs • Regional differences grow stronger over time • Substantial increases in risk of hunger in poorer nations • CO2 fertilization important • Increased trade flows needed INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 10
  11. 11. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture What did we think in the mid-2000s?  Potential for problems is larger • Yields would likely increase somewhat in all regions • Smaller gains in the temperate regions than previous models • Small yield gains in the tropics • CO2 fertilization important • Increased trade flows needed INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 11
  12. 12. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture What do we think in 2009? Rainfed maize yields decline 17% by 2050 Page 12
  13. 13. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture What do we think in 2009? Irrigated rice yields decline 20% Page 13
  14. 14. Ghana Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Ghana Irrigated Rice Yield Changes with 2050 Climate with 2050 Climate INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 14
  15. 15. Morocco Rainfed Maize Yield Changes with 2050 Climate Morocco Irrigated Rice Yield Changes with 2050 Climate INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 15
  16. 16. Mozambique Rainfed Maize Yield Mozambique Irrigated Rice Yield Changes with 2050 Climate Changes with 2050 Climate INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 16
  17. 17. Vietnam Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Vietnam Irrigated Rice Yield Changes with 2050 Climate with 2050 Climate INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 17
  18. 18. What about CO2 fertilization effect?  Needed in all models to offset some of productivity losses from climate change, but…  Recent reports on field experiments on CO2 fertilization are negative • Effects in the field 50-percent less than in experiments in enclosed containers • Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 increase susceptibility  soybean plants to the Japanese beetle  maize to the western corn rootworm INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 18
  19. 19. AGRICULTURE AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE Page 19
  20. 20. Adaptation in agriculture is essential  Good development policy is important first step • Higher incomes from productive agricultural resources, used sustainably, provide resilience in the face of climate change  Location, location, location • Climate change effects vary, even within a country • What’s needed?  Location-specific analysis  Location-specific programs and policy measures  More open agricultural trade is needed for flexibility in face of uncertain future INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 20
  21. 21. Adaptation needs  Increased expenditures in agricultural science and technology • Emphasis on crop breeding, including biotechnology, that targets abiotic and biotic stresses, and provides biological resilience  Increased investments in water storage and management  More development of rural Infrastructure • Physical – roads, market buildings and storage facilities, • Institutional – extension programs, credit and input markets, and reduced barriers to internal trade  Policy improvements to internalize externalities associated with environmental services • Innovative approaches to property rights INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 21
  22. 22. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION Page 22
  23. 23. Agriculture’s GHG emissions are large, but shares differ by region Total GHG emissions (Mt Share from Share from land-use CO2e) agriculture change and Forestry Region Europe 7,600 9.1 0.4 North America 7,208 7.1 -4.7 South America 3,979 23.6 51.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 543 12.7 60.4 Asia 14,754 14.4 26.8 Developing countries* 22,186 15.7 35.6 World 40,809 14 18.7 Source: WRI CAIT, 2009 Page 23 * - Non Annex 1 countries
  24. 24. Agricultural mitigation: Cost-effective options  Change crop mixes • plants that are perennial and/or with deep root systems  Use cultivation systems that leave residues • reduce tillage, especially deep tillage  Shift land use from annual crops to • Perennial crops • Pasture • Agroforestry  KEY Issue – MRV - Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 24
  25. 25. Methane mitigation from rice technology change (change in mt CO2 equivalent/ha/year) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 25
  26. 26. Guatemala: Locations for Optimal Sequestration of Carbon Page 26
  27. 27. Concluding remarks  Climate change will alter the agriculture of our children  Efforts to adapt to the inevitable change need to start now if we are to feed the world sustainably and reduce poverty  Agriculture can play an important role in mitigating GHG emissions  Including agriculture in Copenhagen is essential INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 27

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