This FAO projects aims to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches.

1. Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and
Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity
under Climate Change to Strengthen Household
Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation
Approaches
(GCP/INT/126/JPN)
Tatsuji KOIZUMI
Climate, Energy and Tenure Division, FAO

2. Project Overview
 Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and
Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under
Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food
Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches
(AMICAF)
 Total Approved Budget: US$ 2.5 million
 Project operation: October 2011-October 2014
 Participating countries: The Philippines and Peru
(only first two components).

3. Objectives
 To assist developing countries to address climate
change assessment and adaptation, to improve
food security through a comprehensive
framework.
 This framework would bridge climate change
impact assessment, food Insecurity vulnerability
analysis and livelihood adaptation approaches.

4. AMICAF Framework: Addressing the Linkage
Between Climate Change and Food Security
Component1:
Impacts of
Climate Change
on Agriculture
Component2: Food
Insecurity
Vulnerability
Analysis
at household level
Component3:
Livelihood
Adaptation to
Climate Change
Component4: Institutional
Analysis and Awareness
Raising
Global Guideline for
Implementation in other
countries (Global delivery)

5. Component 1:
Impacts of climate change on
agriculture
 Nation-wide assessment of projected impacts of climate
change on agriculture at the sub-national scale to inform
Component2 vulnerability analysis and Component3
adaptation planning.
 MOSAICC – Modeling System for Agricultural Impacts of
Climate Change
 Multiple impact models (Climate downscaling, Crops, Hydrology,
Economy) in one package
 Software plus training
 Newly developed Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Market
Model, named PAM (Provincial Agricultural Market) model,
is used in addition to MOSAICC’s climate downscaling, crop
and hydrology modules.

6. MOSAICC with Agricultural
Market Model
Statistical climate
downscaling models
Historical weather
observations
Downscaled climate projections
Hydrological model
Crop growth
simulation models
GCM low resolution
climate projections
Historical discharge
records
Water availability
for irrigation
Historical water
use statistics
Historical yield data
Yield projections
Crop parameters
Soil data
Technology trend
scenarios
Soil and land use data
Dam data
Provincial agricultural
market impact
Provincial Agricultural Market (PAM) model
a partial equilibrium economic modelAgricultural market data
Food insecurity vulnerability
analysis (Component2)

7. Component 2:
Food Insecurity Vulnerability
Analysis
 Develops an analytical econometrics model with
the best available national household datasets
 The choice of models heavily depends on data
availability (a variety of socio-economic data at
smaller administrative units, preferably geo-
referenced)
 Characterizing vulnerability and identifying
variables associated with highest levels of
vulnerability

8. Current FIVIMS
Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping
System
in the Philippines
Component 2 will be built upon
past work on analysis and
mapping of food insecurity by
incorporating climate change-
related factors.
Current
FIVIMS
Climate
Change
Impacts
AMICAF

9. Component 3:
Livelihood Adaptation to
Climate Change
 Community–based adaptation making best use of
information from Components 1+2.
 Identification, validation, field-testing, and
evaluation of good adaptation practices at local
context through participatory processes and
capacity development.
 Field tests: Camarines Sur (Luzon Island) and
Surigao del Norte (Mindanao Island)

10. Component 4:
Institutional analysis and
awareness raising
 Institutional analysis
 Knowledge management, communication and
capacity development
 Interactive fora
 Institutional mechanism and produce guidance
materials
 Policy analysis

11. Current Progress (The Philippines
(1))
 PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration) conducted downscaled climate
projections.
 PhilRice (Philippine Rice Research Institute) and UP-NIGS (The
university of the Philippines Diliman National Institute of Geological
Sciences ) is conducting yield and hydrological
projections .
 NEDA (National Economic and Development Authority) is
conducting agricultural market projections.
 CBMS (The De La Salle University through the Community-Based
Monitoring System Network Team) is conducting food
insecurity vulnerability analysis at household level .

12. Current Progress (The Philippines (2))
 Department of Agriculture-Regional Field Unit 5 and
Philrice, Agusan del Norte are conducting filed tests
to cope with climate change, collecting good
practice options and organizing farmer field
schools.
 A national consultant is conducting institutional
analysis.

13. Sample of Rainfall Projection Results for 3 models
for January-June (2011-2040)
under A1B Scenario in the Philippines
BCM2
model
CNCM3
model
ECHMA5
model

14. Drought-prone test plots
in upland
2012 Wet Season 2013 Dry Season

15. Saline-tolerant test plots
in Caraga

16. Climate-smart
Farmer Field Schools
Typhoon tracking by FFS participants
Fabricating manual rain gauge Varietal evaluation during Field Day
Community hazard assessment

17. Activities in the
Philippines(2012)
 Project inception meeting (January 12)
 Technical workshop for Component1 (February
15)
 Project steering committee (June 26)
 Technical workshop for Component 2 (June 27)
 Training workshop for Component1 (July 17-24,
August 16-17, September 10-14 and September
21)

18. Activities in the Philippines
(2013)
 Project steering committee (January 16)
 Training workshop for Component2 (Feb 11-12)
 Training workshop for Component1 (PAM) (Feb 14-
15)
 Regional Expert Forum on Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food Security in ASEAN (May 2-3,
Bangkok)
 APEC ATCWG (June 29, Medan, Indonesia)
 Technical workshop for institutional analysis (July)
 Final workshop for Component 1 (August) (Plan)
 Final workshop for Component 2 (December)
(Plan)

19. Activities in the Philippines (2014:
Plan)
 APEC ATCWG (June, China)
 Final workshop for Component 3
(September)
 Final workshop for Component 4
(September)
 Final workshop for all Components
(September)

20. Activities in Peru (2013)
 Inception workshop (March 7)
 Technical workshop for Component1 (March 12)
 Technical workshop for Component2 (July 11-12)
 Project Steering Committee (July)
 Training workshop for Component 1 (July-
August)

21. Activities in Peru (2014: Plan)
 Final workshop for Component1 (November;
Plan)
 Final workshop for Component2 (December;
Plan)
 Final Workshop (May, Plan)
 APEC ATCWG in 2014 (June)

22. Thank you!
Tatsuji.Koizumi@fao.org