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Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change

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This FAO projects aims to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches.

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Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change

  1. 1. Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches (GCP/INT/126/JPN) Tatsuji KOIZUMI Climate, Energy and Tenure Division, FAO
  2. 2. Project Overview  Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches (AMICAF)  Total Approved Budget: US$ 2.5 million  Project operation: October 2011-October 2014  Participating countries: The Philippines and Peru (only first two components).
  3. 3. Objectives  To assist developing countries to address climate change assessment and adaptation, to improve food security through a comprehensive framework.  This framework would bridge climate change impact assessment, food Insecurity vulnerability analysis and livelihood adaptation approaches.
  4. 4. AMICAF Framework: Addressing the Linkage Between Climate Change and Food Security Component1: Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture Component2: Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis at household level Component3: Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change Component4: Institutional Analysis and Awareness Raising Global Guideline for Implementation in other countries (Global delivery)
  5. 5. Component 1: Impacts of climate change on agriculture  Nation-wide assessment of projected impacts of climate change on agriculture at the sub-national scale to inform Component2 vulnerability analysis and Component3 adaptation planning.  MOSAICC – Modeling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change  Multiple impact models (Climate downscaling, Crops, Hydrology, Economy) in one package  Software plus training  Newly developed Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Market Model, named PAM (Provincial Agricultural Market) model, is used in addition to MOSAICC’s climate downscaling, crop and hydrology modules.
  6. 6. MOSAICC with Agricultural Market Model Statistical climate downscaling models Historical weather observations Downscaled climate projections Hydrological model Crop growth simulation models GCM low resolution climate projections Historical discharge records Water availability for irrigation Historical water use statistics Historical yield data Yield projections Crop parameters Soil data Technology trend scenarios Soil and land use data Dam data Provincial agricultural market impact Provincial Agricultural Market (PAM) model a partial equilibrium economic modelAgricultural market data Food insecurity vulnerability analysis (Component2)
  7. 7. Component 2: Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis  Develops an analytical econometrics model with the best available national household datasets  The choice of models heavily depends on data availability (a variety of socio-economic data at smaller administrative units, preferably geo- referenced)  Characterizing vulnerability and identifying variables associated with highest levels of vulnerability
  8. 8. Current FIVIMS Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping System in the Philippines Component 2 will be built upon past work on analysis and mapping of food insecurity by incorporating climate change- related factors. Current FIVIMS Climate Change Impacts AMICAF
  9. 9. Component 3: Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change  Community–based adaptation making best use of information from Components 1+2.  Identification, validation, field-testing, and evaluation of good adaptation practices at local context through participatory processes and capacity development.  Field tests: Camarines Sur (Luzon Island) and Surigao del Norte (Mindanao Island)
  10. 10. Component 4: Institutional analysis and awareness raising  Institutional analysis  Knowledge management, communication and capacity development  Interactive fora  Institutional mechanism and produce guidance materials  Policy analysis
  11. 11. Current Progress (The Philippines (1))  PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration) conducted downscaled climate projections.  PhilRice (Philippine Rice Research Institute) and UP-NIGS (The university of the Philippines Diliman National Institute of Geological Sciences ) is conducting yield and hydrological projections .  NEDA (National Economic and Development Authority) is conducting agricultural market projections.  CBMS (The De La Salle University through the Community-Based Monitoring System Network Team) is conducting food insecurity vulnerability analysis at household level .
  12. 12. Current Progress (The Philippines (2))  Department of Agriculture-Regional Field Unit 5 and Philrice, Agusan del Norte are conducting filed tests to cope with climate change, collecting good practice options and organizing farmer field schools.  A national consultant is conducting institutional analysis.
  13. 13. Sample of Rainfall Projection Results for 3 models for January-June (2011-2040) under A1B Scenario in the Philippines BCM2 model CNCM3 model ECHMA5 model
  14. 14. Drought-prone test plots in upland 2012 Wet Season 2013 Dry Season
  15. 15. Saline-tolerant test plots in Caraga
  16. 16. Climate-smart Farmer Field Schools Typhoon tracking by FFS participants Fabricating manual rain gauge Varietal evaluation during Field Day Community hazard assessment
  17. 17. Activities in the Philippines(2012)  Project inception meeting (January 12)  Technical workshop for Component1 (February 15)  Project steering committee (June 26)  Technical workshop for Component 2 (June 27)  Training workshop for Component1 (July 17-24, August 16-17, September 10-14 and September 21)
  18. 18. Activities in the Philippines (2013)  Project steering committee (January 16)  Training workshop for Component2 (Feb 11-12)  Training workshop for Component1 (PAM) (Feb 14- 15)  Regional Expert Forum on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in ASEAN (May 2-3, Bangkok)  APEC ATCWG (June 29, Medan, Indonesia)  Technical workshop for institutional analysis (July)  Final workshop for Component 1 (August) (Plan)  Final workshop for Component 2 (December) (Plan)
  19. 19. Activities in the Philippines (2014: Plan)  APEC ATCWG (June, China)  Final workshop for Component 3 (September)  Final workshop for Component 4 (September)  Final workshop for all Components (September)
  20. 20. Activities in Peru (2013)  Inception workshop (March 7)  Technical workshop for Component1 (March 12)  Technical workshop for Component2 (July 11-12)  Project Steering Committee (July)  Training workshop for Component 1 (July- August)
  21. 21. Activities in Peru (2014: Plan)  Final workshop for Component1 (November; Plan)  Final workshop for Component2 (December; Plan)  Final Workshop (May, Plan)  APEC ATCWG in 2014 (June)
  22. 22. Thank you! Tatsuji.Koizumi@fao.org

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