Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security


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  • Why focus on Food securityAnd climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  • Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?
  • Challenge Program then CGIAR Research ProgramTheme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutesNew way of working – deliberately networked
  • Brought together all the main players setting up community carbon projects in West and East AfricaIdentified research needs – institutional models, how they might work best for efficiency, equity
  • Wide set of CG and ESSP partners writing book chapters for Earthscan; covering the range of ag sectors including livestock and fisheriesSimilarly full range of lessons from REDD+: technical options, “measurement, reporting and verification” (MRV), finance, institutions, incentives-Using  modeling, remote sensing data and data on farmers' management practices, Winrock International and Applied GeoSolutions are estimating current agricultural emissions and generating scenarios of different mitigation strategies  consistent with maintaining food supply.
  • Massive exercise – training of survey teams and partners, multi-lingual survey instrument, large number of households in remote sitesSite selection based on multiple criteria to represent a range of exposure (e.g. predicted changes in rainfall), sensitivity (e.g. livelihood dependence on threatened crops) and capacity to respond (e.g. how well connected by roads) in each regionGraph from all households in three regions in baseline survey shows lower access among female-headed households to modern communications, especially phonesRelevant to many proposed interventions e.g. weather forecasts by cellphoneBaseline has multiple purposes: action research sites particularly for the adaptation themes 1 & 2 (these sites will be matched with analogue sites), better understanding of local and regional differences to guide best-bet technologies and practices to trial in different localities; also as formal baseline for future program assessment.
  • Have pledged 30% of research funds to understanding and acting on social differentiationVulnerability – climate change’s impacts on agriculture will affect different social groups very differently – while geographic areas differ enormously, in general we know e.g. that women are especially vulnerable But some of the most vulnerable also have the highest capacity and agency for change – e.g. women make up 80% of the agricultural workforce, and are primary carers during crucial early childhood years during which food security has strongest impacts on well-being and developmentInterventions should build on these capacities, empower, be appropriate (e.g. use women’s institutions and networks)Village participatory analysis is consultation with all social groups to understand differentiated needs, skills, perceptions, priorities
  • Second objective of CCAFS is to get climate change onto agricultural policy and planning, and vice versaPlus linking into food security and development agendas, such as the Millennium Goals, Rio+20, G20Much work at regional and national levelsTwo global examples are Commission and ARDDARDD 2010 very successful in terms of media outreach – 40 journalists, 10 media stories around the worldTwo degree photo essays also successful – blogged, redistributed, widely watched on youtube
  • Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

    1. 1. CIAT BOT, May 2011<br />Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) – Overview<br />Bruce Campbell<br />CCAFS Director <br />
    2. 2. The Challenge<br />
    3. 3. Message 1:<br />In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.<br />
    4. 4. In order to meet global demands, we will need<br />60-70% <br />more food <br />by 2050.<br />
    5. 5. CO2 <br />The concentration of GHGsisrising<br />CH4 <br />Long-termimplications<br />for the climate and <br />agriculture<br />N2O <br />
    6. 6. The suitability for crops will decline in many areas……<br />% change<br />-95 to -31<br />-30 to -11<br />-10 to -1<br />0<br />1 to 29<br />30 to 47<br />48 to 98<br />50 crops, to 2050<br />Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS<br />
    7. 7. “Unchecked climate change will result in a <br />20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.<br />-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS<br />
    8. 8. Message 2:<br />With new challenges also come <br />new opportunities.<br />
    9. 9. Ecosystem services<br />Average price in voluntary <br />carbon markets ($/tCO2e)<br />2006<br />2007<br />2008<br />
    10. 10. Program <br /> Design<br />
    11. 11. CCAFS: the partnership<br />
    12. 12. The CGIAR Research Centers<br /> Lead center - CIAT<br />
    13. 13.
    14. 14. CCAFS objectives<br />Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems.<br />Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.<br />
    15. 15. The CCAFS Framework<br />Adapting Agriculture to<br />Climate Variability and Change<br />Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:<br />Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk<br />Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation<br />Improved Environmental Health<br />Improved Rural Livelihoods<br />Improved Food Security<br />4. Integration for Decision Making<br /><ul><li>Linking Knowledge with Action
    16. 16. Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning
    17. 17. Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis</li></ul>Trade-offs and Synergies<br />Enhanced adaptive capacity<br /> in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems<br />
    18. 18. Place-based field work<br />Indo-Gangetic Plains:<br />Parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal<br />West Africa:<br />Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger<br />East Africa:<br />Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia<br />
    19. 19. Progressive<br /> Adaptation<br />
    20. 20. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1<br />Objective One: <br />Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies<br />Objective Two: <br />Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates<br />Objective Three: <br />Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity<br />
    21. 21. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1<br />>> Spotlight on: Farms of the future<br />Searching for climate analogues<br />The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality<br />Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials<br />
    22. 22. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1<br />>> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up<br />Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture<br />
    23. 23. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1<br />>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform<br />The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge. <br />It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.<br />
    24. 24. Risk Management<br />
    25. 25. Managing Climate Risk · 2<br />Objective One: <br />Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level) <br />Objective Two: <br />Food delivery, trade, and crisis response <br />(Food system level) <br />Objective Three: <br />Enhanced climate information and services<br />
    26. 26. Managing climate risk · 2<br />>> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance<br /><ul><li>Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance
    27. 27. Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk</li></li></ul><li>Managing climate risk · 2<br />>> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate data<br />Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across Africa<br />Filling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO<br />Crucial for calculating index insurance, forecasting production for food crisis and trade management etc<br />
    28. 28. Pro-poor<br /> Mitigation<br />
    29. 29. Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3<br />Objective One: <br />Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways<br />Objective Two: <br />Develop incentives and institutional arrangements<br />Objective Three: <br />Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications<br />
    30. 30. Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3<br />>> Spotlight on: Carbon project action research<br />Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa<br />
    31. 31. Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3<br />>> Spotlight on: State-of-the-art agricultural mitigation<br /><ul><li> Earthscan book of current knowledge
    32. 32. Lessons from REDD+ for agriculture</li></li></ul><li>Integration<br />
    33. 33. Integration for Decision Making · 4<br />Objective One: <br />Linking knowledge with action<br />Objective Two: <br />Data and tools for analysis and planning<br />Objective Three: <br />Refining frameworks for policy analysis<br />
    34. 34. Integration for Decision Making · 4<br />>> Spotlight on: Household baseline survey<br />Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households<br /><ul><li> Sites for participatory action research
    35. 35. Guidance for research foci
    36. 36. Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts</li></li></ul><li>™<br />MarkSim<br />Integration for Decision Making · 4<br />Select climate model <br />(6 options or their avg)<br />Select emissions scenario<br />(3 options)<br />Select the centre year of the time slice<br />Select the number of years of data desired<br />Select location <br />
    37. 37. Cross-cutting <br />principles, <br />activities & outputs<br />
    38. 38. Building a user-driven agenda<br />From local to regional to global<br /><ul><li>From large-scale stakeholder consultations</li></ul>e.g. GCARD, regional meetings<br /><ul><li>Specific exercises with selected groups</li></ul>e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials<br />
    39. 39. Capacity enhancement<br />People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently.<br />
    40. 40. Focus on the most vulnerable<br /><ul><li>Understand and act on social differentiation: gender, wealth, occupation etc
    41. 41. Examine both vulnerability and agency, e.g. via village participatory analysis</li></li></ul><li>Join up climate, ag & food policy<br />Working with UNFCCC negotiators<br />AgClim Letters<br />
    42. 42.
    43. 43. Budget<br />$63.2 million total<br />Sources:<br />CGIAR Fund - $41.4 million<br />Current and Projected Restricted Donor Projects - $17.3 million<br />Other Income $ 4.5 million<br />30% to partners<br />
    44. 44.
    45. 45. Budget allocation to Themes<br />
    46. 46. Challenges<br />A new way of working – needs behavioral changes<br />Boundary issues amongst CRPs<br />Opportiunities<br /><ul><li>Largest coalition of scientists working on agriculture and climate change in developing countries</li></li></ul><li>What Should You Do (as a scientist)?<br />Learn and engage<br /><ul><li> Learn about the program on the web and through presentations
    47. 47. Engage with theme leaders and center contact points on your research</li></ul>Collaborate and contribute<br /><ul><li> Use research products coming out of other centers
    48. 48. Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy
    49. 49. Develop ownership and feel a part of the program</li></li></ul><li>stay in touch<br /><br />sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins <br />follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate<br />