CDL 2014 keynote

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Materials for my keynote to the CDL 2014 conference.
Includes notes on participants' comments and questions.

Published in: Education

Transcript of "CDL 2014 keynote"

  1. 1. Center for Distance Learning, S UNY Empire State College - 2014
  2. 2. Plan: 1. Current and developing trends 2. Several possible futures
  3. 3. Collaborate Use social media Use futures thinking Practice open Pay attention to generations
  4. 4. After the Web’s first generation: Campus Web presence The LMS The ERP Library-IT ententes Desktops to BYOD
  5. 5. Monthly environmental scan report Trends identified, teste d, projected
  6. 6. More international students heading to the US Non-US higher ed systems building up
  7. 7. Northeast, midwest youth population vs debt Alternative certification (competency, badges) US job changes (manufact- >service, 1->many, declining participation, automation)
  8. 8. Adjunctification rising
  9. 9. shared academic services executive compensation rising amid controversy challenges to internships possible intergenerational tensions library budgets being crushed
  10. 10. digital video cloud wars augmented reality automation and artificial intelligence
  11. 11. social media triumphing
  12. 12. durability of Moore’s Law
  13. 13. crowdfunding growing copyright battles continue office versus Web office Internet of Things
  14. 14. "When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that's what you needed on the farms." Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular…
  15. 15. "PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They are still going to be around." However, he said, only "one out of x people will need them." http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-20006526-56.html ; image via Wikipedia
  16. 16. Design for mobile *first *
  17. 17. PCs getting crowded out Mouse and keyboard declining 3d printing mainstreaming
  18. 18. the limits of the Web onshoring hardware production 3d tv dying
  19. 19. Nicholas Carr, linked http://bryanalexander.org/2013/08/15/have-ebooks-plateaued/
  20. 20. Ebook ecosystems
  21. 21. blended/flipped classroom rise of the net.generation gaming in education
  22. 22. educational entrepreneurship
  23. 23. big data and data analytics develop campus digital security threats growing
  24. 24. Uses of social media Uses of Web video Changes in the LMS world Blended learning Learning analytics Changes in library role Digital humanities (in classroom) The rise of the Maker movement
  25. 25. Credit for MOOCs STEM vs humanities Sustainability? xMOOC vs cMOOC Liberal arts campuses entering
  26. 26. Open content Possible divide growing between research and teaching Changes to the scholarly publication ecosystem Rise of the digital humanities (as scholarly work) The library role
  27. 27. Anxieties about debt and employment
  28. 28. Continued cost/value crisis Grad school crises Bipartisan political pressure
  29. 29. College premium persists Debt closer to car ownership Endowments returning, maybe (11%+
  30. 30. Stories about futures  Event and response  Creativity  Roles and times  Emergent practices and patterns
  31. 31. 1. Fall of the silos 2. Health care nation 3. Peak higher education 4. The new two cultures
  32. 32. Content Teaching Access Source
  33. 33. Global conversations increase, filter bubble pops More access, more information Lots of creativity
  34. 34. Information prices drop Faculty creativity, flexibility grow IT “ “ “ Academic content unleashed on the world
  35. 35. Industries collapse Authorship mysterious Some low quality tech (videoconf.) Some higher costs More malware + less privacy
  36. 36. Tech challenges Outsourcing and offshoring PLE beats LMS Crowdsourcing faculty work Information literacy central
  37. 37. Internet has always been open Web <> money Online identity has always been fictional, playful
  38. 38. Medical sector grows into leading US industry 25% of GDP
  39. 39. Ageing population
  40. 40. Byzantine finances Treatment improvements Greater presence in society Baumol’s disease
  41. 41. More programs, more people, more tech Increased feminization of student body Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals
  42. 42. Some took premed-themed classes in high school Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures Many already familiar with eldercare practices
  43. 43. Academia experiences a serious correction
  44. 44. http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf
  45. 45. Demographic decline Accelerated prices + sunk costs Low public funding Alternatives rising
  46. 46. Fewer, less crowded campuses Very international student body Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
  47. 47. Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12 Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths Colleges have always been transnational
  48. 48. 1. Distance learning 2. Blended learning
  49. 49. On par with face-to-face Rapid development of pedagogies, curricula Appeals on flexibility, cost
  50. 50. No good categorical name: …which sometimes indicates the future
  51. 51. Blended learning is campus new normal Residential education: a specialized niche Tenured faculty = community guides
  52. 52. Liberal arts campuses? • Classrooms in studio mode • Flipped learning is campus norm • Some classes outsourced to DL
  53. 53. Unique physical environments are central to campus definition All campus is blended learning environment (“place as library”)
  54. 54.  Hands-on learning (maker culture, tinkerin g): production + studies  3d printing across the curriculum
  55. 55. Unbundled functions: grading, assessment, advising Learner-centered Rising positions: mentor (WGU), data manager
  56. 56. Most learning content has always been online Have taken 1-6 DL courses by age 18 Blended learning is normative Blended life “ “ Collaboration’s norm is distant
  57. 57. 1. Fall of the silos 2. Health care nation 3. Peak higher education 4. The new two cultures
  58. 58. Collaborate Use social media Use futures thinking Practice open Pay attention to generations
  59. 59.  Individuals will see financial advantages to pursuing medical careers  Corporatization of health care › Increasing integration, management › Data analysis + “ › Incentives and punishments › Insurance: ACA makes companies more accountable
  60. 60.  Medicalizing issue as social control › Maladaptive daydreaming? › “Sluggish cognitive tempo”  Proletarianizing academic work › work/life blur › Possibility of organization › Doing this to ourselves
  61. 61. coming of age Asimov, “The Fun They Had” intelligent assistant George Leonard, Education and Ecstasy collaboration + sensory input in virtual environments Disruptions in human interaction Web + smartphones New developments?
  62. 62. Students immersed in social media in class gap between digital and f2f experience teach younger ppl to do these 2 styles better multitasking – can it be learned?
  63. 63. More international students ›Distinction between online + f2f ›How to facilitate? Different point: ADA/accessibility
  64. 64. Balkanized net (NSF) Academic response? Grassroots alternatives
  65. 65.  Digital divide ->uneven development
  66. 66. The blog http://bryanalexander.org On the Twitters http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander The email bryan.alexander@gmail.com
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