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CDL 2014 keynote

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Materials for my keynote to the CDL 2014 conference. ...

Materials for my keynote to the CDL 2014 conference.
Includes notes on participants' comments and questions.

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  • 1. Center for Distance Learning, S UNY Empire State College - 2014
  • 2. Plan: 1. Current and developing trends 2. Several possible futures
  • 3. Collaborate Use social media Use futures thinking Practice open Pay attention to generations
  • 4. After the Web’s first generation: Campus Web presence The LMS The ERP Library-IT ententes Desktops to BYOD
  • 5. Monthly environmental scan report Trends identified, teste d, projected
  • 6. More international students heading to the US Non-US higher ed systems building up
  • 7. Northeast, midwest youth population vs debt Alternative certification (competency, badges) US job changes (manufact- >service, 1->many, declining participation, automation)
  • 8. Adjunctification rising
  • 9. shared academic services executive compensation rising amid controversy challenges to internships possible intergenerational tensions library budgets being crushed
  • 10. digital video cloud wars augmented reality automation and artificial intelligence
  • 11. social media triumphing
  • 12. durability of Moore’s Law
  • 13. crowdfunding growing copyright battles continue office versus Web office Internet of Things
  • 14. "When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that's what you needed on the farms." Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular…
  • 15. "PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They are still going to be around." However, he said, only "one out of x people will need them." http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-20006526-56.html ; image via Wikipedia
  • 16. Design for mobile *first *
  • 17. PCs getting crowded out Mouse and keyboard declining 3d printing mainstreaming
  • 18. the limits of the Web onshoring hardware production 3d tv dying
  • 19. Nicholas Carr, linked http://bryanalexander.org/2013/08/15/have-ebooks-plateaued/
  • 20. Ebook ecosystems
  • 21. blended/flipped classroom rise of the net.generation gaming in education
  • 22. educational entrepreneurship
  • 23. big data and data analytics develop campus digital security threats growing
  • 24. Uses of social media Uses of Web video Changes in the LMS world Blended learning Learning analytics Changes in library role Digital humanities (in classroom) The rise of the Maker movement
  • 25. Credit for MOOCs STEM vs humanities Sustainability? xMOOC vs cMOOC Liberal arts campuses entering
  • 26. Open content Possible divide growing between research and teaching Changes to the scholarly publication ecosystem Rise of the digital humanities (as scholarly work) The library role
  • 27. Anxieties about debt and employment
  • 28. Continued cost/value crisis Grad school crises Bipartisan political pressure
  • 29. College premium persists Debt closer to car ownership Endowments returning, maybe (11%+
  • 30. Stories about futures  Event and response  Creativity  Roles and times  Emergent practices and patterns
  • 31. 1. Fall of the silos 2. Health care nation 3. Peak higher education 4. The new two cultures
  • 32. Content Teaching Access Source
  • 33. Global conversations increase, filter bubble pops More access, more information Lots of creativity
  • 34. Information prices drop Faculty creativity, flexibility grow IT “ “ “ Academic content unleashed on the world
  • 35. Industries collapse Authorship mysterious Some low quality tech (videoconf.) Some higher costs More malware + less privacy
  • 36. Tech challenges Outsourcing and offshoring PLE beats LMS Crowdsourcing faculty work Information literacy central
  • 37. Internet has always been open Web <> money Online identity has always been fictional, playful
  • 38. Medical sector grows into leading US industry 25% of GDP
  • 39. Ageing population
  • 40. Byzantine finances Treatment improvements Greater presence in society Baumol’s disease
  • 41. More programs, more people, more tech Increased feminization of student body Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals
  • 42. Some took premed-themed classes in high school Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures Many already familiar with eldercare practices
  • 43. Academia experiences a serious correction
  • 44. http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf
  • 45. Demographic decline Accelerated prices + sunk costs Low public funding Alternatives rising
  • 46. Fewer, less crowded campuses Very international student body Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
  • 47. Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12 Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths Colleges have always been transnational
  • 48. 1. Distance learning 2. Blended learning
  • 49. On par with face-to-face Rapid development of pedagogies, curricula Appeals on flexibility, cost
  • 50. No good categorical name: …which sometimes indicates the future
  • 51. Blended learning is campus new normal Residential education: a specialized niche Tenured faculty = community guides
  • 52. Liberal arts campuses? • Classrooms in studio mode • Flipped learning is campus norm • Some classes outsourced to DL
  • 53. Unique physical environments are central to campus definition All campus is blended learning environment (“place as library”)
  • 54.  Hands-on learning (maker culture, tinkerin g): production + studies  3d printing across the curriculum
  • 55. Unbundled functions: grading, assessment, advising Learner-centered Rising positions: mentor (WGU), data manager
  • 56. Most learning content has always been online Have taken 1-6 DL courses by age 18 Blended learning is normative Blended life “ “ Collaboration’s norm is distant
  • 57. 1. Fall of the silos 2. Health care nation 3. Peak higher education 4. The new two cultures
  • 58. Collaborate Use social media Use futures thinking Practice open Pay attention to generations
  • 59.  Individuals will see financial advantages to pursuing medical careers  Corporatization of health care › Increasing integration, management › Data analysis + “ › Incentives and punishments › Insurance: ACA makes companies more accountable
  • 60.  Medicalizing issue as social control › Maladaptive daydreaming? › “Sluggish cognitive tempo”  Proletarianizing academic work › work/life blur › Possibility of organization › Doing this to ourselves
  • 61. coming of age Asimov, “The Fun They Had” intelligent assistant George Leonard, Education and Ecstasy collaboration + sensory input in virtual environments Disruptions in human interaction Web + smartphones New developments?
  • 62. Students immersed in social media in class gap between digital and f2f experience teach younger ppl to do these 2 styles better multitasking – can it be learned?
  • 63. More international students ›Distinction between online + f2f ›How to facilitate? Different point: ADA/accessibility
  • 64. Balkanized net (NSF) Academic response? Grassroots alternatives
  • 65.  Digital divide ->uneven development
  • 66. The blog http://bryanalexander.org On the Twitters http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander The email bryan.alexander@gmail.com