The Calm Between Two Storms: my NERCOMP 2014 keynote


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My keynote address to the 2014 NERCOMP conference.
The first half surveyed trends in technology and education, while the second presented several scenarios.

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The Calm Between Two Storms: my NERCOMP 2014 keynote

  1. 1. Glimpsing the Future of Education and Technology - NERCOMP 2014
  2. 2. Plan: 1. Current and developing trends 2. Several possible futures
  3. 3. Collaboration Social media Futures thinking Being open Attention to generations
  4. 4. After the Web’s first generation: Campus Web presence The LMS The ERP Library-IT ententes Desktops to BYOD
  5. 5. Monthly environmental scan report Trends identified, teste d, projected
  6. 6. More international students heading to the US Non-US higher ed systems building up
  7. 7. Northeast, midwest youth population vs debt Alternative certification (competency, badges) US job changes (manufact- >service, 1->many, declining participation, automation)
  8. 8. Adjunctification rising
  9. 9. shared academic services executive compensation rising amid controversy challenges to internships possible intergenerational tensions library budgets
  10. 10. digital video cloud wars augmented reality automation and artificial intelligence
  11. 11. social media triumphing
  12. 12. crowdfunding growing copyright battles continue durability of Moore’s Law office versus Web office
  13. 13. "When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that's what you needed on the farms." Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular…
  14. 14. "PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They are still going to be around." However, he said, only "one out of x people will need them." ; image via Wikipedia
  15. 15. Design for mobile *first *
  16. 16. PCs getting crowded out Mouse and keyboard declining 3d printing mainstreaming 3d tv dying
  17. 17. the limits of the Web onshoring hardware production
  18. 18. Nicholas Carr, linked
  19. 19. blended/flipped classroom rise of the net.generation gaming in education
  20. 20. educational entrepreneurship big data and data analytics develop campus digital security threats growing
  21. 21. Uses of social media Uses of Web video Changes in the LMS world Blended learning Learning analytics Changes in library role Digital humanities (in classroom) The rise of the Maker movement
  22. 22. Credit for MOOCs STEM vs humanities Sustainability? xMOOC vs cMOOC Liberal arts campuses entering
  23. 23. Open content Possible divide growing between research and teaching Changes to the scholarly publication ecosystem Rise of the digital humanities (as scholarly work) The library role
  24. 24. Continued cost/value crisis Student and parent anxieties about debt and employment Grad school crises Bipartisan political pressure
  25. 25. College premium persists Debt closer to car ownership Endowments returning, maybe (11%+
  26. 26. Assemble experts Probe for opinions Rank and distill ideas Reiterate
  27. 27. Selected trends: Ubiquitous social media Integration of online + offline teaching
  28. 28. Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less Flipped Classroom Learning Analytics
  29. 29. Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years 3D Printing Games and Gamification
  30. 30. Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years Quantified Self Virtual Assistants
  31. 31. Stories about futures  Event and response  Creativity  Roles and times  Emergent practices and patterns
  32. 32. 1. Fall of the Silos 2. Phantom University 3. The Renaissance 4. The Old Guard’s Revenge
  33. 33. Content Teaching Access Source
  34. 34. Global conversations increase, filter bubble pops More access, more information Lots of creativity
  35. 35. Information prices drop Faculty creativity, flexibility grow IT “ “ “ Academic content unleashed on the world
  36. 36. Industries collapse Authorship mysterious Some low quality tech (videoconf.) Some higher costs More malware + less privacy
  37. 37. Tech challenges Outsourcing and offshoring PLE beats LMS Crowdsourcing faculty work Information literacy central
  38. 38. Internet has always been open Web <> money Online identity has always been fictional, playful
  39. 39. Post-tsunami Schools are rare and distant Information is plentiful and nearby
  40. 40.
  41. 41. Information on demand Instructors, peers “ “ Grading outsourced Multimedia: social, personalized
  42. 42. Institutions Function: content supplements Faculty: adjunct rōnin Accreditation: online, multiple, display-
  43. 43. Institutions Library: media production camp Professional development: via social media
  44. 44. No good categorical name: …which sometimes indicates the future
  45. 45. Students spent more time in K-12 with online classes than face-to- face ones K-12 as social center, working parent support spaces Libraries are software Buildings without AR look naked
  46. 46. Gaming world
  47. 47. Classroom and courses  Curriculum content  Delivery mechanism  Creating games Peacemaker, Impa ct Games Revolution (via Jason Mittell)
  48. 48. •Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005) •Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008) •Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009)
  49. 49. Changes in hardware, software Part of undergraduate life Learning content, both informal and formal Career paths
  50. 50. Higher education landscape: Accreditation: drives project- based, studio-style pedagogy Libraries: gaming production, archiving Professional development: distance, DiY Faculty multimedia production is the norm
  51. 51. Most students identified with one+ game characters in K-12 Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors Most of their work and school is gamified
  52. 52.  Economic growth returns to US (energy, medical, nanotech vs world)  17-22-year-old niche revitalized (K-12 failure)  Full-time faculty stabilize (AAUP-ALA strike)  Digital tech firewalled from class (i.e., tv + film)
  53. 53. Higher education landscape: Supplemental rather than transformative tech Logistical instead of pedagogical tech Academics include tech in old structures (classes, publication) Reconfigured to protect IP
  54. 54. 18-year-olds were .ppt proficient by 5th grade Schools <> digital life They find their parents’ recollections of life before the web are oddly charming
  55. 55. 1. Fall of the Silos 2. Phantom University 3. The Renaissance 4. The Old Guard’s Revenge
  56. 56. Collaboration Social media Futures thinking Being open Attention to generations
  57. 57. The blog On the Twitters The email