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Four dystopias for the future of education

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I offer four scenarios for the future of education, and each one is dark. An experimental presentation.

It follows a trends presentation, which I'll also share.

Published in: Education
  • thanks for sharing these, Bryan. An interesting request indeed. Usually there is a preference for rosy futures. In my experience doing scenario work with a range of futures, it's often the 'negative' scenario that produces the most creative and interesting responses, so I can see how this approach might be effective. Thanks for continuing to share all your good work -- always thoughtful and interesting!!!
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Four dystopias for the future of education

  1. 1. Stories about futures  Event and response  Creativity  Roles and times  Emergent practices and patterns
  2. 2. What’s a dystopia? Start with utopia: Thomas More, 1516 (eu- + u-)
  3. 3. Extrapolations of current trends Criticisms of the present (i.e., 1948) Total systems
  4. 4.  Never a happy ending  Rebellions are quashed
  5. 5. 1. Silos stand tall 2. Cyberpunk world 3. Gilded Age 2.0 4. Bubble bursts
  6. 6. Content Teaching Research Source software
  7. 7. Global conversations fragment Filter bubbles for all
  8. 8. Information prices high Faculty trained to stacks + separation IT “ “ “ Academic content scarce in the non-OECD world
  9. 9. Tech support by silo Powerful LMS Library as licensing agent, inter-silo guide
  10. 10. Content industries preserved High quality content “ “ technologies Less malware
  11. 11. Internet has always been a series of walled gardens The Web is commercial They identified with stacks by age 15
  12. 12. Tech saturated Chaotic
  13. 13. Hyperglobalized Networked, distributed technology is ubiquitous Surveillance is the norm, both corporate and governmental
  14. 14. States destabilized Companies have increased regulatory capture + policy influence Subversion by technology Continuous future shock
  15. 15. Labor: chaotic, disorganized, sometimes approaching forced Unemployment high, due to…
  16. 16. Privatized tuition “ campus support Business + STEM programs + Homeland Security big
  17. 17. Micropayments for campus transactions Business metrics Greater military presence Information literacy vital
  18. 18. Identified with company by age 15 ½ of social network is not same nation Heavy tech training by middle school
  19. 19. New age of inequality, led by the 1% and their 1% Stability
  20. 20. Alfreds
  21. 21. Consumption made conspicuous by digital media Labor in service, as Alfreds
  22. 22. Gerontocracy in practical politics Underemployed pacified by funding, media
  23. 23. Faculty 99% adjunct (neofeudal campus) Focus on rich students Student debt > mortgages
  24. 24. F2f for the 1% Distance learning for middle class MOOCs for everyone else
  25. 25. Elite schools offer liberal arts education Lack of visible tech = mark of status BA= mark of service quality Leading majors: finance, human resources, poli sci
  26. 26. Follow 1% displays closely Contributed to sharing economy by age 10 “Middle class” is as historical as the Crusades
  27. 27. Demographic decline Accelerated prices + sunk costs Low public funding
  28. 28. Education’s reputation declines Homeschooling boom Informal learning on par w/formal Corporate/gov. research
  29. 29. http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf
  30. 30. Fewer, less crowded campuses Very international student body, for now Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
  31. 31. Less research published Tenure a rarity Information support largely outsourced
  32. 32. Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12 Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths Colleges have always been transnational
  33. 33. 1. Silos stand tall 2. Cyberpunk world 3. Gilded Age 2.0 4. Bubble bursts
  34. 34. Use social media Expand involvement with open* •Own your data
  35. 35. Lobby politically for massive increase in government funding Organize on adjuncts Fight for broader economic policies
  36. 36. Futures thinking Teach privacy concepts, practices, and technologies Nurture public intellectuals
  37. 37. Your turn
  38. 38. The blog http://bryanalexander.org The Twitter http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander
  39. 39. The email bryan.alexander@gmail.com The bear
  40. 40.  Wikipedia  http://lotrlockedwhovian.tumblr.com/post/911109158 48/i-want-this-at-work  https://www.flickr.com/photos/urlukket/6485398549  https://www.flickr.com/photos/vblibrary/5537660712  https://www.flickr.com/photos/jonny2love/40163856 71  http://www.openculture.com/2008/06/george_orwel ls_1984_download_free_audio_book_version.html  https://www.alfredclub.com/  https://www.flickr.com/photos/pagedooley/3558874 001/in/photostream/

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