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 Extrapolation
 Environmental
  scan
 Futures
  market
 Scenarios
 Delphi
 Extraordinary political or economic event
 Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)
iPhone Apps Store downloads
1. April 2009   1.0 billion
2. July 2009    1.5 billion
3. Sept 2009    2.0 billion
4. Dec 200...
Tweak to contexts
What are some metrics
     you use for
   extrapolation?
 Multiple
  sources
 Should be
longitudinal
 Social
  networks
 Iterated
  resource
  feeds
 Scanner
  contributes
  content
Dynamic social
media venue
 Is there a higher            Scholarly
   education bubble?             publication
  Digital humanities            an...
 Augmented reality      International
   mainstreamed            liberal education
  Social organization    Maker cult...
Next 20 years?
Screening
Interacting
Sharing
Flowing
Accessing         Pattern recognition:
Generating        Deduct...
   Propositions in time      Shares to be traded
 Continuous     Quant. + Qual.
 Distributed    Affordances of
 feedback         play
Which alternative to PowerPoint
 will become most widely used
         on campuses?
Stories about futures      Roles and times
 Event and response       Emergent practices and
 Creativity               ...
Build upon other methods:
 Select drivers – environmental
  scan
 Identify trends – Delphi reports
 Test trends - extra...
 Assemble
  experts
 Probe for
  opinions
 Rank and
  distill ideas
 Reiterate
 “[A]  comprehensive review and analysis of
  research, articles, papers, blogs, and
  interviews
 [We] discussed existi...
People expect to be able
to work, learn, and
study whenever and
wherever they want to.
The technologies we
use are increasingly
cloud-based, and our
notions of IT support
are decentralized.
The world of work is
increasingly
collaborative,
driving changes in the
way student projects are
structured.
The abundance of
resources and
relationships made easily
accessible via the Internet
is increasingly challenging
us to rev...
Education paradigms
are shifting to include
online learning,
hybrid learning and
collaborative models.
There is a new
emphasis in the
classroom on more
challenge-based and
active learning.
Economic pressures and
new models of education
are bringing unprecedented
competition to the
traditional models of higher
...
Appropriate metrics of
evaluation lag the
emergence of new
scholarly forms of
authoring, publishing,
and researching.
Digital media literacy
continues its rise in
importance as a key
skill in every
discipline and
profession.
Institutional barriers
present formidable
challenges to moving
forward in a constructive
way with emerging
technologies.
New modes of scholarship
are presenting significant
challenges for libraries and
university collections, how
scholarship i...
NITLE
         http://nitle.org

              Techne
      http://blogs.nitle.org/

 NITLE prediction markets game
    ht...
Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion
Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion
Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion
Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion
Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion
Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion
Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion
Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion
Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion
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Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion

  1. 1.  Extrapolation  Environmental scan  Futures market  Scenarios  Delphi
  2. 2.  Extraordinary political or economic event  Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)
  3. 3. iPhone Apps Store downloads 1. April 2009 1.0 billion 2. July 2009 1.5 billion 3. Sept 2009 2.0 billion 4. Dec 2009 …? -works with data sources -can lead to more data-gathering, metrics
  4. 4. Tweak to contexts
  5. 5. What are some metrics you use for extrapolation?
  6. 6.  Multiple sources  Should be longitudinal
  7. 7.  Social networks  Iterated resource feeds  Scanner contributes content
  8. 8. Dynamic social media venue
  9. 9.  Is there a higher  Scholarly education bubble? publication  Digital humanities and/versus open on the rise access  Adjunctification  Higher education continues budgets  Alternative online  Computer learning hardware ecology  Textbooks going  Has the World ebook+ Wide Web hit its limit? January-Feb 2012 scan sample
  10. 10.  Augmented reality  International mainstreamed liberal education  Social organization  Maker culture on through social campus media  High-speed trading  Some tuition  Global economic freezes, cuts stresses  Intergenerational  Rise of natural gas tensions: public + private March 2012 scan sample
  11. 11. Next 20 years? Screening Interacting Sharing Flowing Accessing Pattern recognition: Generating Deductions from scanning -Kevin Kelly
  12. 12.  Propositions in time  Shares to be traded
  13. 13.  Continuous  Quant. + Qual.  Distributed  Affordances of feedback play
  14. 14. Which alternative to PowerPoint will become most widely used on campuses?
  15. 15. Stories about futures  Roles and times  Event and response  Emergent practices and  Creativity patterns
  16. 16. Build upon other methods:  Select drivers – environmental scan  Identify trends – Delphi reports  Test trends - extrapolation  Test propositions – prediction markets
  17. 17.  Assemble experts  Probe for opinions  Rank and distill ideas  Reiterate
  18. 18.  “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews  [We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones.  A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression.  Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”
  19. 19. People expect to be able to work, learn, and study whenever and wherever they want to.
  20. 20. The technologies we use are increasingly cloud-based, and our notions of IT support are decentralized.
  21. 21. The world of work is increasingly collaborative, driving changes in the way student projects are structured.
  22. 22. The abundance of resources and relationships made easily accessible via the Internet is increasingly challenging us to revisit our roles as educators.
  23. 23. Education paradigms are shifting to include online learning, hybrid learning and collaborative models.
  24. 24. There is a new emphasis in the classroom on more challenge-based and active learning.
  25. 25. Economic pressures and new models of education are bringing unprecedented competition to the traditional models of higher education.
  26. 26. Appropriate metrics of evaluation lag the emergence of new scholarly forms of authoring, publishing, and researching.
  27. 27. Digital media literacy continues its rise in importance as a key skill in every discipline and profession.
  28. 28. Institutional barriers present formidable challenges to moving forward in a constructive way with emerging technologies.
  29. 29. New modes of scholarship are presenting significant challenges for libraries and university collections, how scholarship is documented, and the business models to support these activities.
  30. 30. NITLE http://nitle.org Techne http://blogs.nitle.org/ NITLE prediction markets game http://markets.nitle.org/ Bryan on Twitter http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander
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    Nov. 26, 2021

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