The need of disaster loss data - assessment of droughts in global databases
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The document discusses drought events and their assessment in global loss databases. It presents information on Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database, including its assessment of drought losses worldwide from 1980-2011. It also describes the development of a methodology to better define drought events, assess their vulnerability impact, and estimate their financial costs. This will involve defining start/end dates of droughts, a vulnerability index, and a methodology to categorize droughts into catastrophe classes based on their impacts.
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The need of disaster loss data - assessment of droughts in global databases
- 1. THE NEED OF DISASTER LOSS DATA & ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHTS IN GLOBAL DATABASES August 2012 Angelika Wirtz & Marius Henseli
- 2. NatCatSERVICE Contents Brief information about NatCatSERVICE Assessment of loss impact of worldwide drought events Access to NatCatSERVICE information © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 3. NatCatSERVICE Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2011 Jan.-August 2012 Overall and insured losses (bn US$) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Overall losses (in 2011 values) Insured losses (in 2011 values) © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 4. NatCatSERVICE The need of disaster loss data Science Political committees Clients Analysts, investors Media DATA Quality / Standards / Transparency ICSU – IRDR Integrated Research on Disaster Risk •Working Group DATA – Disaster Loss Data and Impact Assessment CRED/Em-Dat, Swiss Re, UNDP, ISDR etc. •Working Groups on Standards and Methodologies © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 5. NatCatSERVICE Assessment of droughts in global loss databases Main scope of master thesis - Development of methodology to define start and end of droughts - Development of vulnerability index - Development of methodology to assess financial impact © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 6. NatCatSERVICE Drought, Central Africa Chad 2011-2012 Source: Reuters Several regions affected Widespread cropland destroyed Livestock killed Water and food shortage © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 7. NatCatSERVICE Methodology to assess financial impact of droughts Number Cat Agriculture Industry/ Lifeline Environment Society People Soft Duration Spatial Death of sectors Class Property affected indicator (month) extent toll affected Weight 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 8. NatCatSERVICE Methodology to assess financial impact of droughts Cat Crops Special Dairy/ Timber Aquaculture Class crops Livestock 1 Cropland Cropland Widespread cropland destroyed affected affected Livestock killed 2 Cropland Cropland Livestock Tree diseases damaged damaged low affected Cropland Cropland 3 Livestock Wildland fires/ Degradation of MR Drought Class (4,4) damaged/ damaged/ high affected Range fires fish habitats destroyed destroyed 4 Cropland Cropland Livestock Widespread Fish habitats wildland fires/ destroyed destroyed killed affected Range fires Widespread Widespread 5 High mortality Fish habitats cropland cropland rates destroyed destroyed destroyed 6 © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 9. NatCatSERVICE Assessment of financial impact – Cat Classes Overall losses Catastrophe category Loss profile 1980s* 1990s* 2000s* 2010* and/or fatalities 0 Natural event No property damage - - - - none Small-scale property - - - - >1 1 Small-scale loss event damage Moderate property and - - - - >10 structural damage 2 Moderate loss event Severe property US$ >25m US$ >40m US$ >50m US$ >60m >20 3 Severe catastrophe infrastructure and structural damage Major property, US$ >90m US$ >160m US$ >200m US$ >250m >100 infrastructure and structural damage 4 Major catastrophe Devastating losses within US$ >275m US$ >400m US$ >500m US$ >650m >500 5 Devastating catastrophe the affected region Region’s ability to help itself clearly overtaxed, interregional/international assistance necessary, thousands Great natural of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless, substantial economic losses (UN definition). Insured 6 catastrophe losses reach exceptional orders of magnitude. © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 10. NatCatSERVICE Assessment of financial impact – Cat classes and Worldbank income groups Cat Class Chad (Low income) 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010 1 0.01m US$ 0.01m US$ 0.01m US$ 0.01m US$ 2 0.5m US$ 0.5m US$ 0.5m US$ 0.5m US$ 3 20% 20% 20% 20% 4 20% 20% 20% 20% 5 20% 20% 20% 20% 6 20% 20% 20% 20% Source: World Bank Country Classification Income Groups 2011 (defined by World Bank): High income economies Upper middle income economies Lower middle income economies Low income economies (GNI ≥12,195 US$) (GNI 3,946 – 12,194 US$) (GNI 996 – 3,945 US$) (GNI ≤995 US$) © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 11. NatCatSERVICE Assessment of drought vulnerability index Vulnerability Groups: No Data Low Lower middle Upper middle High (≤0,3) (0,3-0,45) (0,45-0,6) (≥ 0,6) © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 12. NatCatSERVICE Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980-2011 Percentage distribution 20,230 Loss events 1,715,000 Fatalities 3% 10% 14% 10% 13% 52% 35% 38% 25% Overall losses* US$ 3,590bn Insured losses* US$ 880bn 2% 9% 5% 6% 25% 12% 9% 22% 38% 72% *in 2011 values *in 2011 values Geophysical events Meteorological events Hydrological events Climatological events Climatological events (Earthquake, tsunami, (Storm) (Flood, mass (Extreme temperature, (Drought) volcanic eruption) movement) forest fire) © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 13. NatCatSERVICE Conclusion Sound and transparent methodology Consistent over time and space Independent from reporting failures Quality of data set has improved • Master of science thesis available in October 2012 • Marius Henseli – mhenseli@munichre.com • Angelika Wirtz – awirtz@munichre.com © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 14. NatCatSERVICE NatCatSERVICE Downloadcenter for statistics and analyses on natural disasters 1 200 1 000 800 The downloadcenter provides free access: 600 400 200 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Annual statistics Long-term statistics Information on significant natural disasters Focus analyses NatCatSERVICE methodology, info brochure Publication Topics Geo 500% 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% www.munichre.com/natcatservice/downloadcenter/en 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 15. THANK YOU ! Angelika Wirtz & Marius Henseli Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre Munich Re
- 16. NatCatSERVICE Catastrophe classes of droughts worldwide 1980 – 2011 Percentage distribution worldwide/Number of events with trend 14 1% 12 14% 12% 32% 10 41% 4 8 3 6 4 5 2 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Small-scale loss events Moderate loss events Severe catastrophes Major catastrophes Devastating catastrophes © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 17. NatCatSERVICE Drought catastrophes worldwide 1980-2011 Percentage distribution – ordered by continent 510 Loss events Fatalities 7% 15% 28% 10% 11% 29% Overall losses* US$ 306bn Insured losses* US$ 16.5bn 1% 1% 6% 10% 15% 6% 53% 14% 6% 88% *in 2011 values *in 2011 values Africa Asia Australia/Oceania Europe North America, South America incl. Central America and Caribbean © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
- 18. NatCatSERVICE Cat- Class 1 2 3 4 1 Indicators: 8 2 (Unspecified 1) Cat-Class 2,9 Cat 2 2 =3 Cat 3 5 3 Cat 4 1 © 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at August 2012
Editor's Notes
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