The document discusses a case study on the costs of climate change adaptation for aquaculture in Vietnam. It finds the Mekong Delta, Red River Delta, and central provinces to be most vulnerable. Climate impacts like sea level rise, higher temperatures, and more rain are projected to damage infrastructure and negatively impact production for coastal catfish and inland catfish farms through 2050. Semi-intensive shrimp farms may see reduced yields but improved techniques could offset this. Extensive shrimp yields may increase with higher survival rates and more aquaculture area. Adaptation options and their costs and benefits are assessed.
The document discusses the spatial context of climate risk. It provides an overview of key concepts related to climate change adaptation and disaster risk management including earth system science frameworks, climate impacts, risk elements, exposure and vulnerability mapping, complexity and dynamics of systems, and limitations around data, nonlinearity and uncertainty. Specific topics covered include temperature rise patterns, increases in hot days and decreases in cold days, conceptual linkages between adaptation and disaster risk management, the spatial nature of exposure and risk, vulnerability at different scales, dynamics of vulnerability and risk over time, limitations around distinguishing slow onset from rapid onset events, and the need for spatial tools and critical thinking to address climate and disaster resilience challenges.
Ensemble rainfall predictions in a countrywide flood forecasting model in Sco...michaelcranston
1) A countrywide flood forecasting model in Scotland uses ensemble rainfall predictions from the Met Office's MOGREPS-R forecasting system as input to a distributed hydrological model called Grid-to-Grid.
2) The ensemble predictions provide a probabilistic assessment of flood risk across Scotland with lead times of 1-2 days, helping flood warning authorities communicate expected flood risk in a risk-based approach.
3) Case studies showed that the probabilistic forecasts helped flood warning officers better prepare for potential flooding by providing information on the confidence in river level forecasts.
Step 2 of field tests took place in Sisteron, France on July 5th, 2012 and simulated a chemical accident in a highway tunnel. The objectives were to test new functionalities for the emergency support system (ESS), including an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), chemical sensors, email/mission assignment, spatial simulation of chemical cloud dispersion, cloud-based video dispatching, and a press point. This step aimed to improve the reliability and stability of the ESS deployed in Step 1.
- The document discusses challenges for integrating agriculture into the national adaptation plan (NAP) process, including knowledge gaps about climate impacts, complexity in long-term projections, and context-specific needs.
- It outlines objectives to facilitate inclusion of food security and agriculture perspectives, empower stakeholders, and provide guidance.
- The document then describes elements of the NAP process and provides examples of how agriculture could be integrated into each element, such as analyzing climate impacts and vulnerabilities or selecting and appraising adaptation options.
In Vietnam: Ecosystems and Livelihoods Adaptation Network - Key Conceptscbachofen
This document discusses integrating ecosystem management approaches into community-based climate change adaptation. It argues that ecosystems play an important role in adaptation by providing goods and services that improve livelihoods and reduce costs. Integrating sound ecosystem management into adaptation policy and practice can help avoid maladaptation, reduce costs, and increase sustainability. The document recommends several approaches for integrating ecosystem management, including reducing human pressures on ecosystems, emphasizing bottom-up community engagement, maintaining flexibility, and working across different social and ecological scales.
Forest Day 4 was held in Cancun, Mexico with over 1500 participants. The theme was "Time to Act" with a sense of urgency to agree on REDD+ mechanisms to reduce deforestation and forest degradation. There was impatience that five years after Montreal and four years after the Stern Review, no agreement had been reached. Participants asserted that the science on climate change is clear and that failure to act would lead to dangerous climate change impacts. A majority saw monitoring co-benefits of REDD+ as very important and supported mainstreaming sustainable forest management into agriculture, water and energy sector policies.
The document discusses the spatial context of climate risk. It provides an overview of key concepts related to climate change adaptation and disaster risk management including earth system science frameworks, climate impacts, risk elements, exposure and vulnerability mapping, complexity and dynamics of systems, and limitations around data, nonlinearity and uncertainty. Specific topics covered include temperature rise patterns, increases in hot days and decreases in cold days, conceptual linkages between adaptation and disaster risk management, the spatial nature of exposure and risk, vulnerability at different scales, dynamics of vulnerability and risk over time, limitations around distinguishing slow onset from rapid onset events, and the need for spatial tools and critical thinking to address climate and disaster resilience challenges.
Ensemble rainfall predictions in a countrywide flood forecasting model in Sco...michaelcranston
1) A countrywide flood forecasting model in Scotland uses ensemble rainfall predictions from the Met Office's MOGREPS-R forecasting system as input to a distributed hydrological model called Grid-to-Grid.
2) The ensemble predictions provide a probabilistic assessment of flood risk across Scotland with lead times of 1-2 days, helping flood warning authorities communicate expected flood risk in a risk-based approach.
3) Case studies showed that the probabilistic forecasts helped flood warning officers better prepare for potential flooding by providing information on the confidence in river level forecasts.
Step 2 of field tests took place in Sisteron, France on July 5th, 2012 and simulated a chemical accident in a highway tunnel. The objectives were to test new functionalities for the emergency support system (ESS), including an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), chemical sensors, email/mission assignment, spatial simulation of chemical cloud dispersion, cloud-based video dispatching, and a press point. This step aimed to improve the reliability and stability of the ESS deployed in Step 1.
- The document discusses challenges for integrating agriculture into the national adaptation plan (NAP) process, including knowledge gaps about climate impacts, complexity in long-term projections, and context-specific needs.
- It outlines objectives to facilitate inclusion of food security and agriculture perspectives, empower stakeholders, and provide guidance.
- The document then describes elements of the NAP process and provides examples of how agriculture could be integrated into each element, such as analyzing climate impacts and vulnerabilities or selecting and appraising adaptation options.
In Vietnam: Ecosystems and Livelihoods Adaptation Network - Key Conceptscbachofen
This document discusses integrating ecosystem management approaches into community-based climate change adaptation. It argues that ecosystems play an important role in adaptation by providing goods and services that improve livelihoods and reduce costs. Integrating sound ecosystem management into adaptation policy and practice can help avoid maladaptation, reduce costs, and increase sustainability. The document recommends several approaches for integrating ecosystem management, including reducing human pressures on ecosystems, emphasizing bottom-up community engagement, maintaining flexibility, and working across different social and ecological scales.
Forest Day 4 was held in Cancun, Mexico with over 1500 participants. The theme was "Time to Act" with a sense of urgency to agree on REDD+ mechanisms to reduce deforestation and forest degradation. There was impatience that five years after Montreal and four years after the Stern Review, no agreement had been reached. Participants asserted that the science on climate change is clear and that failure to act would lead to dangerous climate change impacts. A majority saw monitoring co-benefits of REDD+ as very important and supported mainstreaming sustainable forest management into agriculture, water and energy sector policies.
On ICRISAT 40 years anniversary ceremony at the Regional office for West and Central Africa in Bamako (Mali), Dr Robert ZOUGMORE made an acclaimed presentation that gave prospective scenarios and challenges for agriculture and food security in the coming 40 years and suggested ways and strategies for climate smart agriculture.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The document summarizes the potential for offshore aquaculture development in England. It discusses how offshore aquaculture could help address issues with inshore aquaculture like environmental concerns, lack of space, and disease. Offshore aquaculture faces significant challenges from physical forces like waves and currents. It also raises regulatory, economic, technical, and environmental issues that would need to be addressed. The document advocates testing offshore aquaculture technologies at a pilot scale as an initial goal.
Cebu Presentation: Climate Change Issues and Initiativesgtapang
This document summarizes a forum on renewable energy and responding to climate change challenges. It discusses how climate change is accelerating due to greenhouse gas emissions. Developing countries are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change like reduced agriculture productivity, water issues, health impacts, and effects on coastal areas. The Philippines is already experiencing the effects of climate change through increasing temperatures and more extreme weather. Key vulnerable sectors in the Philippines include agriculture, water resources, coastal areas, health, and human settlements.
ADB’s Adaptation Program: Poverty Implications and Emerging ResponsesPoverty Environment Net
This document summarizes ADB's efforts to address the poverty implications of climate change through adaptation programs. It finds that vulnerable groups like the poor, women, children and ethnic minorities will be most severely impacted. Case studies from Vietnam show climate change could increase poverty levels significantly in the Mekong Delta. ADB is working to incorporate vulnerability assessments and adaptation options into projects and strategies to make them more climate-resilient and reduce poverty impacts over the long run. Priority areas of focus include climate-proofing infrastructure, analyzing vulnerable sectors and locations, and building staff and local capacity on adaptation and financing approaches.
Presented at the Basin Focal Project workshop 'Clarifying the global picture of water, food and poverty' from 18-20th September in Chiang Mai, Thailand.
Economics of climate change adaptation ethiopia essp2
Ethiopian Development Research Institute and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI/EDRI), Tenth International Conference on Ethiopian Economy, July 19-21, 2012. EEA Conference Hall
The document summarizes the key findings and recommendations from The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) study regarding the economic value of biodiversity and ecosystem services. It outlines that TEEB was an international initiative to draw attention to the global economic benefits of biodiversity and the associated costs of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation. The document reviews TEEB's assessment that biodiversity and ecosystems provide services worth trillions of dollars globally and that their loss imposes significant economic costs. It also discusses the dependence of human livelihoods and businesses on ecosystem services and makes recommendations for businesses to measure, value and reduce their biodiversity footprint through ambitious conservation targets and sustainable sourcing practices.
Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08Michael P Totten
green and smart techologies for profitably anda positively resolving climate destabilization, mass poverty, species extinction, oil wars and resource conflicts. And accelerating solutions through wiki-meshups.
SESSION 5_Rob Dellink_ Climate change- CIRCLE workshop Oct. 2014OECD Environment
This document discusses the economic impacts of climate change according to research from the OECD. It finds that under a business-as-usual scenario, global GDP could decrease by 3-4% by 2060 due to factors like sea level rise, health impacts, effects on agriculture and tourism. Adaptation policies and mitigation policies each have the potential to reduce damages according to preliminary analysis. The analysis aims to expand its coverage of impacts to include events like floods, heatwaves and water stress, and continue policy analysis to inform climate negotiations.
Climate Variability and Change, Importance for IWRM planning process
International Roundtable on Protection and Sustainable Use of Trans-boundary Waters in South East Europe, 15-16 December 2011, Zagreb, Croatia
This document discusses coastal aquaculture and proposes an indicator system to measure its eco-innovation and environmental impact. It defines coastal aquaculture and the context of the project, which aims to help authorities objectively monitor coastal aquaculture activities. It proposes using the DPSIR framework to measure the drivers, pressures, state, impacts and responses of coastal aquaculture. An indicator system is presented using percentages, numbers and other units to measure technology/best practices, eco-innovation knowledge/participation, and ecological footprint. The NUSAP tool is discussed for assessing uncertainty in the indicators.
The Water, Food & Energy Nexus: Results of a Mekong InvestigationCPWF Mekong
The document summarizes research on the water, food, and energy nexus in the wider Mekong region. It finds:
1. Major infrastructure investments and climate change will significantly impact the nexus between water, food, and energy security in the region.
2. Irrigation and industry development are unlikely to effectively reduce poverty on their own and may have unintended consequences like increased migration.
3. The region is highly diverse, so generalizations are not possible and solutions must be tailored to local conditions, values, and expected impacts of changes like resource decline.
Hannah BEHRENDT "The bigger picture on drylands - using a natural capital acc...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
1) Natural capital accounting (NCA) provides crucial information to manage natural resources by accounting for their contribution to the economy and livelihoods in a way that is missing from traditional GDP measures.
2) NCA, as laid out by the UN's System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA), brings together information on key aspects of the environment and natural resources to provide a "bigger picture" on their interaction with economic and social factors.
3) The World Bank's WAVES partnership is working to implement NCA in countries around the world and develop methodologies to measure more difficult to value natural capital like ecosystems, demonstrating how the data can support sustainable development decision-making.
The document proposes research plans for the Limpopo Basin Focal Project. The project aims to identify agricultural water interventions that can reduce poverty and enhance food security in the basin. It will identify existing data, fill knowledge gaps through short studies, and create a stakeholder network map. The project team is diverse with experts from various universities and organizations. Key work packages include analyzing water availability, poverty levels, water productivity, and institutions. The project expects to identify intervention packages, specify further research needs, and influence policies through stakeholder engagement.
Trocaire is implementing a 3 year, 3 million Euro drought risk reduction program in Kenya. The program takes an integrated approach to drought preparedness, mitigation, and climate change adaptation. It uses both traditional disaster management tools as well as newer approaches from disaster risk reduction. The program aims to strengthen early warning systems, drought-proof agriculture and water sources, and promote more drought-resistant livelihood strategies. Through participatory processes, the program identifies hazards, vulnerable groups, and builds community capacity to reduce risk and build resilience to drought over the short, medium, and long-term.
The Accelerating Impact of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project works to deliver a climate-smart African future driven by science and innovation in agriculture.
AICCRA does this by enhancing access to climate information services and climate-smart agricultural technology to millions of smallholder farmers in Africa.
With better access to climate technology and advisory services—linked to information about effective response measures—farmers can better anticipate climate-related events and take preventative action that help communities better safeguard their livelihoods and the environment.
AICCRA is supported by a grant from the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank, which is used to enhance research and capacity-building activities by the CGIAR centers and initiatives as well as their partners in Africa.
About IDA: IDA helps the world’s poorest countries by providing grants and low to zero-interest loans for projects and programmes that boost economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve poor people’s lives.
IDA is one of the largest sources of assistance for the world’s 76 poorest countries, 39 of which are in Africa.
Annual IDA commitments have averaged about $21 billion over circa 2017-2020, with approximately 61 percent going to Africa.
This presentation was given on 27 October 2021 by Mengpin Ge, Global Climate Program Associate at WRI, during the webinar "Achieving NDC Ambition in Agriculture" organized by CCAFS, FAO and WRI.
Find the recording and more information here: https://bit.ly/AchievingNDCs
More Related Content
Similar to Allison - Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Vietnam's Aquaculture Sector
On ICRISAT 40 years anniversary ceremony at the Regional office for West and Central Africa in Bamako (Mali), Dr Robert ZOUGMORE made an acclaimed presentation that gave prospective scenarios and challenges for agriculture and food security in the coming 40 years and suggested ways and strategies for climate smart agriculture.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The document summarizes the potential for offshore aquaculture development in England. It discusses how offshore aquaculture could help address issues with inshore aquaculture like environmental concerns, lack of space, and disease. Offshore aquaculture faces significant challenges from physical forces like waves and currents. It also raises regulatory, economic, technical, and environmental issues that would need to be addressed. The document advocates testing offshore aquaculture technologies at a pilot scale as an initial goal.
Cebu Presentation: Climate Change Issues and Initiativesgtapang
This document summarizes a forum on renewable energy and responding to climate change challenges. It discusses how climate change is accelerating due to greenhouse gas emissions. Developing countries are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change like reduced agriculture productivity, water issues, health impacts, and effects on coastal areas. The Philippines is already experiencing the effects of climate change through increasing temperatures and more extreme weather. Key vulnerable sectors in the Philippines include agriculture, water resources, coastal areas, health, and human settlements.
ADB’s Adaptation Program: Poverty Implications and Emerging ResponsesPoverty Environment Net
This document summarizes ADB's efforts to address the poverty implications of climate change through adaptation programs. It finds that vulnerable groups like the poor, women, children and ethnic minorities will be most severely impacted. Case studies from Vietnam show climate change could increase poverty levels significantly in the Mekong Delta. ADB is working to incorporate vulnerability assessments and adaptation options into projects and strategies to make them more climate-resilient and reduce poverty impacts over the long run. Priority areas of focus include climate-proofing infrastructure, analyzing vulnerable sectors and locations, and building staff and local capacity on adaptation and financing approaches.
Presented at the Basin Focal Project workshop 'Clarifying the global picture of water, food and poverty' from 18-20th September in Chiang Mai, Thailand.
Economics of climate change adaptation ethiopia essp2
Ethiopian Development Research Institute and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI/EDRI), Tenth International Conference on Ethiopian Economy, July 19-21, 2012. EEA Conference Hall
The document summarizes the key findings and recommendations from The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) study regarding the economic value of biodiversity and ecosystem services. It outlines that TEEB was an international initiative to draw attention to the global economic benefits of biodiversity and the associated costs of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation. The document reviews TEEB's assessment that biodiversity and ecosystems provide services worth trillions of dollars globally and that their loss imposes significant economic costs. It also discusses the dependence of human livelihoods and businesses on ecosystem services and makes recommendations for businesses to measure, value and reduce their biodiversity footprint through ambitious conservation targets and sustainable sourcing practices.
Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08Michael P Totten
green and smart techologies for profitably anda positively resolving climate destabilization, mass poverty, species extinction, oil wars and resource conflicts. And accelerating solutions through wiki-meshups.
SESSION 5_Rob Dellink_ Climate change- CIRCLE workshop Oct. 2014OECD Environment
This document discusses the economic impacts of climate change according to research from the OECD. It finds that under a business-as-usual scenario, global GDP could decrease by 3-4% by 2060 due to factors like sea level rise, health impacts, effects on agriculture and tourism. Adaptation policies and mitigation policies each have the potential to reduce damages according to preliminary analysis. The analysis aims to expand its coverage of impacts to include events like floods, heatwaves and water stress, and continue policy analysis to inform climate negotiations.
Climate Variability and Change, Importance for IWRM planning process
International Roundtable on Protection and Sustainable Use of Trans-boundary Waters in South East Europe, 15-16 December 2011, Zagreb, Croatia
This document discusses coastal aquaculture and proposes an indicator system to measure its eco-innovation and environmental impact. It defines coastal aquaculture and the context of the project, which aims to help authorities objectively monitor coastal aquaculture activities. It proposes using the DPSIR framework to measure the drivers, pressures, state, impacts and responses of coastal aquaculture. An indicator system is presented using percentages, numbers and other units to measure technology/best practices, eco-innovation knowledge/participation, and ecological footprint. The NUSAP tool is discussed for assessing uncertainty in the indicators.
The Water, Food & Energy Nexus: Results of a Mekong InvestigationCPWF Mekong
The document summarizes research on the water, food, and energy nexus in the wider Mekong region. It finds:
1. Major infrastructure investments and climate change will significantly impact the nexus between water, food, and energy security in the region.
2. Irrigation and industry development are unlikely to effectively reduce poverty on their own and may have unintended consequences like increased migration.
3. The region is highly diverse, so generalizations are not possible and solutions must be tailored to local conditions, values, and expected impacts of changes like resource decline.
Hannah BEHRENDT "The bigger picture on drylands - using a natural capital acc...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
1) Natural capital accounting (NCA) provides crucial information to manage natural resources by accounting for their contribution to the economy and livelihoods in a way that is missing from traditional GDP measures.
2) NCA, as laid out by the UN's System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA), brings together information on key aspects of the environment and natural resources to provide a "bigger picture" on their interaction with economic and social factors.
3) The World Bank's WAVES partnership is working to implement NCA in countries around the world and develop methodologies to measure more difficult to value natural capital like ecosystems, demonstrating how the data can support sustainable development decision-making.
The document proposes research plans for the Limpopo Basin Focal Project. The project aims to identify agricultural water interventions that can reduce poverty and enhance food security in the basin. It will identify existing data, fill knowledge gaps through short studies, and create a stakeholder network map. The project team is diverse with experts from various universities and organizations. Key work packages include analyzing water availability, poverty levels, water productivity, and institutions. The project expects to identify intervention packages, specify further research needs, and influence policies through stakeholder engagement.
Trocaire is implementing a 3 year, 3 million Euro drought risk reduction program in Kenya. The program takes an integrated approach to drought preparedness, mitigation, and climate change adaptation. It uses both traditional disaster management tools as well as newer approaches from disaster risk reduction. The program aims to strengthen early warning systems, drought-proof agriculture and water sources, and promote more drought-resistant livelihood strategies. Through participatory processes, the program identifies hazards, vulnerable groups, and builds community capacity to reduce risk and build resilience to drought over the short, medium, and long-term.
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AICCRA does this by enhancing access to climate information services and climate-smart agricultural technology to millions of smallholder farmers in Africa.
With better access to climate technology and advisory services—linked to information about effective response measures—farmers can better anticipate climate-related events and take preventative action that help communities better safeguard their livelihoods and the environment.
AICCRA is supported by a grant from the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank, which is used to enhance research and capacity-building activities by the CGIAR centers and initiatives as well as their partners in Africa.
About IDA: IDA helps the world’s poorest countries by providing grants and low to zero-interest loans for projects and programmes that boost economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve poor people’s lives.
IDA is one of the largest sources of assistance for the world’s 76 poorest countries, 39 of which are in Africa.
Annual IDA commitments have averaged about $21 billion over circa 2017-2020, with approximately 61 percent going to Africa.
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Find the recording and more information here: https://bit.ly/AchievingNDCs
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- CSA effects on farm performance
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Presentation by Han Soethoudt, Jan Broeze, and Heike Axmann of Wageningen University & Resaearch (WUR).
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Learn more: https://www.wur.nl/en/news-wur/show-day/Mechanization-helps-Nigerian-farms-reduce-food-loss-and-increase-income.htm
Presentation on the rapid evidence review findings and key take away messages.
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1) The document outlines an action plan to scale research outputs from the EC LEDS project in Vietnam. It identifies key activities to update livestock feed databases and software, improve feeding management practices, develop policies around carbon tracking and subsidies, and raise awareness of stakeholders.
2) The plan's main goals are to strengthen national feed resources, update the PC Dairy software, build greenhouse gas inventory systems, and adopt standards to reduce emissions in agriculture and the livestock industry.
3) Key stakeholders involved in implementing the plan include the Department of Livestock Production, universities, and ministries focused on agriculture and the environment.
2. Cost of CC adaptation case study 2009-2010
• Vietnam case study (World Bank Global EACC)
– 2008, aquaculture production accounted for 6.6% of the
national GDP
– Multiple productions systems (capture/culture, species,
intensive/extensive)
– CC impacts: Temperature, rainfall changes, Sea level
rise, (storm frequency and severity) (MONRE, 2009)FAO
partnership excellence growth!
3. partnership excellence growth !
Impact
assessment:
– What
is
the
vulnerability
of
the
aquaculture
sector
to
CC
impacts?
– What
are
the
physical
as
well
as
economic
losses
which
may
be
expected
over
the
period
2010
to
2050
as
a
result
of
CC?
Adapta.on
op.ons:
– What
are
the
plausible
adapta?on
op?ons?
• planned
• autonomous
– What
are
the
costs
and
benefits
of
these
adapta?on
op?ons?
3
4. Vulnerability analysis: country scale/province
EXPOSURE (E) DEPENDENCY (D)
Sea level rise: % of province area flooded Direct livelihood: % hh engaged in aquaculture
Temperature rise: Avg temperature increase relative Indirect employment: employees in fishery enterprises
to 1980-99 as % of total enterprise employees
Rainfall change: Annual rainfall change relative to Macro-economics: Fish output as % of country GDP;
1980-99 seafood export processing facilities
Coastal extreme events: Aquaculture area damaged, Food security: Per capita annual fish & shrimp
due to storms & typhoons 1989-2008 consumption
Floods: Aquaculture area damaged by floods,
1989-2008
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY (AC)
Poverty: % of population below poverty line; % of hh
monthly food expenditure spent on fish & shrimp
Infrastructure: Telephone lines per 100 people; # of hospital
beds per 1000 people
POTENTIAL IMPACTS (PI) Education: Graduates of 2o education as % of total
- impacts that will occur without adaptation candidates
PI = f(E,D) Disaster response to CC: # of disaster management
programs; DRM investments in construction projects; DRM
investments in non-construction projects
Social capital: share of fishery cooperatives as % of
national total
Education: % of fishery employees with education
Black: Generic; Red: CC related; Blue: aquaculture sector
VULNERABILITY
- the nature & extent of losses incurred by the
aquaculture sector due to CC
V = f(PI, AC)
partnership excellence growth!
5. Vulnerability indices by Province, Vietnam
Provinces most vulnerable
to climate-induced
changes in the aquaculture
sector are in the Mekong
Delta, Red River Delta and
Central Province
Preliminary results World Bank study please
do not cite
partnership excellence growth!
6. The
Mekong
River
delta
• Accounts
for
80%
of
Vietnam’s
total
shrimp
produc?on;
75%
of
total
fish
produc?on
Freshwater
ca6ish
(Pangasianodon
hypophthalmus)
• Inland
provinces
• “Coastal”
provinces
Black
9ger
shrimp
(Penaeus monodon)
• (Improved)
extensive
scale
• Semi-‐intensive/intensive
scale
6
partnership excellence growth!
7. CC Potential Impacts in the MRD
Areas subjected to increments of maximum flooding depths during the
rainy season (for 50-cm SLR by 2050 scenario), superimposed with
catfish pond areas in An Giang, Dong Thap & Can Tho provinces
Increment
of
Affected
ca6ish
pond
area,
ha
(%)
max
flood
depth
(m)
An
Giang
Dong
Thap
Can
Tho
<0.5
0.5-‐1
1-‐1.5
178
13%
273
26%
1.5-‐2
163
8%
89
6%
FAO
509
48%
2-‐2.5
1,236
62%
211
15%
286
27%
2.5-‐3
394
20%
497
36%
>
3
210
10%
402
29%
Total
2,003
100%
1,376
100%
1,068
100
%
Preliminary results World Bank study please
do not cite
partnership excellence growth!
8. Traditional approach economics of adaptation
1. Baseline – no climate change
2. Impact with no adaptation => Future Society & Future
Climate
3. With adaptation => Adapted Future Society & Future
Climate
=> Cost of adaptation is the difference between 3) & 2)
Limita9on
of
tradi9onal
approach
• Difficult
to
dis?nguish
between
impacts
and
responses
• Assumes
autonomous
adapta?on
does
not
occur
=>
“dumb
farmer
hypothesis”
8
partnership excellence growth!
9. Fussel and Klein (2002)
Expected impacts: Costs of autonomous adaptation included
9
partnership excellence growth!
11. STEP 1
Base production costs for catfish
-‐1 -‐1
VND
million
ha
crop
Inland
Coastal
Gross
Income
4868.9
3738.1
Total
Costs
~ 20,000 VD + 1 USD 4617.0
3644.7
Total
Fixed
Costs
20.9
28.3
-‐
Deprecia?on
of
ponds
11.6
17.15
-‐
Deprecia?on
of
machinery
7.17
8.15
-‐
Land
taxes
2.13
3
Total
Variable
Costs
4596.1
3616.4
-‐
Pond
prepara?on
23.6
27.2
-‐
Seed
329.1
263.7
-‐
Feed
3772.5
3051.2
94%, 96%
of variable
-‐
Chemicals
and
drugs
205.4
152.4
costs
-‐
Dyke
upgrade
11
4.6
-‐
Fuel
and
electricity
48.7
7.7
-‐
Harvest
and
transporta?on
28.8
25.4
-‐
Labour
39.2
44.7
-‐
Interest
on
loans
127.4
33.9
-‐
Miscellaneous
10.4
5.6
Net
Income
252.1
93.4
11
Sinh (2008) Margins: 5%, 3%
partnership excellence growth!
12. STEP 1
Base production costs for shrimp
-‐1 -‐1
Input
(VND
million
ha crop )
SII
Extensive
Gross
Income
431.1
65.9
Total
Costs
193.3
28.8
Total
Fixed
Costs
13.53
2.94
-‐
Deprecia?on
of
ponds
7.58
1.79
-‐
Deprecia?on
of
machinery
4.6
0.85
-‐
Land
taxes
1.35
0.3
Total
Variable
Costs
179.68
25.86
-‐
Pond
prepara?on
8.09
2.2
-‐
Seed
9.35
3.13
88%, 81% of
-‐
Feed
119
13.7
variable costs
-‐
Chemical
and
drugs
21
1.88
-‐
Dyke
upgrade
3.05
0.31
-‐
Fuel
and
electricity
8.63
1.37
-‐
Harvest
and
transporta?on
1.61
0.1
-‐
Labour
6.11
1.45
-‐
Interest
on
loans
1.41
1.14
-‐
Miscellaneous
1.43
0.58
Net
Income
237.8
37.1
6.5 X higher for
Margins: 123%, 129% SII shrimp 12
Sinh (2008)
partnership excellence growth!
13. STEP 2
Summary of the CC impact pathways on
aquaculture
Climate change effect on
Aquaculture system Costs affected by climate change
production
Coastal catfish feed, pond preparation, dyke upgrade, Decrease in survival rate and
infrastructure damage longer growing period will likely
medicine/chemical, fuel/electricity, pond decrease total production per year
construction, pumping equipment
Inland catfish feed, seed, dyke upgrade, labour, fuel/ Decrease in survival rate and
electricity, pond construction, pumping longer growing period will likely
equipment, infrastructure damage decrease total production per year
Semi-intensive/intensive feed, dyke upgrade, medicine/chemical, Decrease in survival rate, but will
shrimp fuel/electricity, pond construction, be offset by improved grow-out
pumping equipment, infrastructure techniques. Yield is expected to
damage decrease
Extensive shrimp dyke upgrade, seed cost, pond Increase in survival rate & possible
preparation, fuel/electricity, pond increase in aquaculture area. Yield
construction, pumping equipment, is expected to increase.
infrastructure damage
13
partnership excellence growth!
14. STEP 2
Stakeholders’ assessment of cost changes
2010
Expected
%
Cost
variable
for
coastal
ca6ish
Value
change
from
2010-‐2020
Feed
cost
-‐ Feed
price
(VND
kg-‐1)
7,850
+75
-‐ Food
conversion
ra9o
1.6
-‐5
Seed
cost
-‐ Stocking
density
(fish
m-‐2)
33
0
-‐ Seed
price
(VND
piece-‐1)
663
+50
Chemicals/drugs
(VND
kg-‐1
of
fish)
750
+125
Pond
prepara9on
(VND
million
ha-‐1)
45
+25
… and similarly for the other three production systems
14
partnership excellence growth!
15. STEP 2
Stakeholders’ opinion on % of input costs attributed
to CC impacts, 2000-2010
Input
cost
Percentage
(%)
of
cost
due
to
climate
change
Extensive
SII
shrimp
Coastal
Inland
shrimp
ca6ish
ca6ish
Fixed
cost
25
20
30
20
Feed
20
10
10
20
Seed
20
n/s
20
5
Chemicals/drugs
n/s
10
20
10
Pond
prepara9on
20
n/s
30
n/s
Fuel/electricity
20
20
20
30
Labour
n/s
n/s
10
n/s
n/s: not stated
- Basis for Cost-benefit Analysis for “CC” and “NCC” scenarios 15
partnership excellence growth!
16. STEP 2
Experts’ opinion on changes in yield and price of
outputs
Yield
Price
-‐1
t
ha
year
%
change
VND
kg-‐1
%
change
year
-‐1 -‐1
2010
2010-‐20
2010
2010-‐20
2020-‐50
Ca6ish
–
Coastal
399
Ca6ish
–
Inland
651
1.0%
17,000
3.0%
2.3%
Shrimp
–
0.60
2.3%
Extensive
Shrimp
-‐
Semi-‐ 100,300
1.4%
1.4%
int/Intensive
8.63
1.8%
Assumption: yields are maintained under CC
scenario but at higher costs 16
partnership excellence growth!
17. STEP 3
Economic impacts of CC on inland catfish
production system (farm-level analysis)
Net Farm Income
2010-2020 Beyond 2020
CC hastens trend towards unprofitability 17
partnership excellence growth!
18. STEP 3 Economic impacts of CC on catfish production
systems (farm-level analysis)
Net Present Value (NPV)
18
Discount rate = 6% p.a.
partnership excellence growth!
19. STEP 3
Economic impacts of CC on extensive shrimp
production system (farm-level analysis)
Net Farm Income
19
partnership excellence growth!
20. STEP 3
Economic impacts of CC on shrimp
production systems (farm-level analysis)
Net Present Value (NPV)
Discount
20
rate = 6%
partnership excellence growth! p.a.
21. STEP 4
- estimate area of current production impacted by
cc
- determine future area planned for aquaculture
production
- conduct Cost-benefit analysis of maintaining this
area in production, distinguishing between farm-
level adaptation (autonomous) and state-planned
adaptation.
partnership excellence growth!
22. STEP 4
Areas subjected to increments of maximum flooding depths (for 50-cm SLR
scenario), superimposed with catfish pond areas in An Giang, Dong Thap & Can Tho
provinces
Increment
of
Affected
ca6ish
pond
area,
ha
(%)
max
flood
depth
(m)
An
Giang
Dong
Thap
Can
Tho
<0.5
0.5-‐1
1-‐1.5
178
13%
273
26%
1.5-‐2
163
8%
89
6%
509
48%
2-‐2.5
1,236
62%
211
15%
286
27%
2.5-‐3
394
20%
497
36%
>
3
210
10%
402
29%
Total
2,003
100%
1,376
100%
1,068
100%
Source:
SIWRP
22
partnership excellence growth!
23. STEP 4
Land use, 2007
Source: SIWRP
Source: Sub- Increment of salinity intrusion (ppt)
NIAPP for 50-cm SLR scenario
Increment
of
water
salinity,
ppt
Province
<0
0-‐1
1-‐2
2-‐3
3-‐4
4-‐8
Total
Bac
Lieu
20,720
48,041
14,451
16,563
6,189
2,014
107,978
Ben
Tre
11,806
30,027
41,833
Ca
Mau
109,420
34,739
1,607
1,972
2,588
15,821
166,147
Kien
Giang
27,059
747
1,776
29,583
Soc
Trang
2,652
14,613
4,300
31,565
Tien
Giang
2,559
1,201
3,760
Tra
Vinh
12,848
17,837
30,685
Vinh
Long
25
124
148
23
All
provinces
187,089
146,581
30,358
18,536
9,524
19,612
411,699
partnership excellence growth!
24. STEP
4
Projected production area (ha) based on
development plans
2010
2015
2020
Extensive
shrimp1
480,964
478,398
474,120
Semi-‐intensive/Intensive
shrimp1
127,339
130,044
134,427
Coastal
ca6ish2
1,400
1,750
2,600
Inland
ca6ish2
7,200
9,250
10,400
1. Projected
shrimp
areas
were
based
on
Op.on
IIIb
of
Lai
(2009)
for
the
whole
country,
with
the
assump.on
that
semi-‐intensive/intensive
scale
of
shrimp
culture
is
prac.ced
outside
of
the
Mekong
River
delta.
2. Projected
caLish
areas
are
based
on
MARD
(2009).
24
partnership excellence growth!
25. STEP 4
Economic impacts of CC (production industry level analysis)
Net Present Value (NPV)
Discount
25
rate = 6%
partnership excellence growth! p.a.
26. STEP 5
Benefits of planned adaptation
Benefits:
avoided
damage
costs
or
the
accrued
benefits
following
the
adop?on
and
implementa?on
of
adapta?on
measures
Our
study:
• public
investment
needed
now
to
reduce
or
offset
the
cost
of
expected
impacts
farmers
will
have
to
face
in
the
future
=>
min.
amount
needed
to
maintain
the
same
net
income
as
achieved
with
autonomous
adapta?on.
• focus
on
dyke
upgrading
&
water
pumping
costs
Dyke
Electricity
Total
Produc9on
system
upgrading
and
fuel
Extensive
shrimp
9.1
8.2
17.3
Semi-‐intensive/Intensive
shrimp
117.8
26.3
144.1
Inland
cajish
432.9
14.8
447.7
Coastal
cajish
59.1
3.3
62.3
Total
618.9
52.6
671.5
26
partnership excellence growth!
27. STEP 5
Catfish
Autonomous adaptation
cost of upgrading dykes
at the production industry
level
At the farm level: starting 2015 the
cost of autonomously adapting to
CC will be too high!
27
partnership excellence growth!
28. On catfish:
• Economic viability is precarious- average net income is 3-5% of
total farm costs
• CC impacts and costs of autonomous adaptation may contribute
to making the industry uncompetitive within the next decade
• Increase profit margins key to survival and adaptation to CC (“no-
regret strategy”):
1) reduce cost of inputs,
2) transfer cost of adaption across the value chain and across sectors (dykes)
partnership excellence growth!
29. On shrimp:
• Positive net benefits for a longer period than catfish operators
due to lower total costs relative to gross income (Avg. net
income 123-129% of total farm costs)
• Extensive systems: profitable, high level of dependency in terms
of livelihoods, low capitalization => good candidate for planned
adaption
• Threats: intensification and expansion risks of collapse (disease
problems) + thermal stress, & costs of flooding & storm damage
could increase costs and increase uncertainty of production
• CC impacts (SLR, increased salinity) offer new opportunities for
increased production => trade-offs between maintaining delta
land for rice, or allowing saline water intrusion for shrimp farming
partnership excellence growth!
30. Key problems and limitations in analysis (1)
• CC impact costs based on perceived climate-related costs in
last 10 years, projected forward (linear projection); not
explicitly linked to results of vulnerability analysis
• Lack of clarity whether projected costs are in nominal or real
terms
• The cost-benefit study projects forward only 10 years at
present – may be extrapolated another 10 (to 2030), but
beyond this, extrapolation becomes increasingly unreliable
without better knowledge of likely feedback responses
• Economic analyses are done on average values; economic
performance (of which feed is a major cost) varies significantly
across the industry and only better performers are likely to
survive
30
partnership excellence growth!
31. Key problems and limitations in analysis (2)
• Economic analysis focuses on the production stage, not on the
value chain
• Stretching the NPV concept from an individual enterprise to an
entire industry (i.e. exit-entry of actors)
• Costs of planned adaptation cannot be attributed only to
aquaculture and must be spread among other sectors
(agriculture, defense of coastal infrastructure, protection of
homes, businesses and livelihoods etc) – needs integration of
the sectoral studies
• Impacts on capture fisheries and mariculture (e.g. cage
aquaculture) and other forms of aquaculture not analyzed in
this study – so these make up only part of the likely total costs
of CC to the fishery/aquaculture sector in Vietnam.
31
partnership excellence growth!
32. Key economic planning questions:
• Do current CC adaptation plans in the Mekong adequately
consider the potential impact on aquaculture development
trajectories?
• If not, is the aquaculture industry of sufficient economic
importance to consider modifying existing coastal and land
use planning for CC adaptation in the Mekong delta?
• What would these modifications cost, and what would their
impacts on other sectors be?
• What other investments are required in aquaculture to ensure
that the sector is able to respond to both a changing climate
and a changing domestic economy and global market?
32
partnership excellence growth!
33. Further work
• Address data limitations: future drivers of change and scenario
work with farmers (linear projection issue)
• Economic impacts of climate change on capture fisheries and other
aquaculture systems
• Link with vulnerability and value chain analysis
Improved linkages with other economic sectors, and with macro-level
planning, for adaptation policy analysis
33
partnership excellence growth!
34. Acknowledgements
• World Bank EACC for economic analysis
• QUEST_fish project (NERC/UK) for vulnerability analysis
Full Report:
Kam S.P, Badjeck M-C, Teh L., Teh L., Bé Năm V.T, Hiền T.T, Huệ
N.T, Phillips M., Pomeroy R., Sinh L.X (2010). Economics of
adaptation to climate change in Vietnam’s aquaculture sector: A
case study. Report to the World Bank (currently embargoed)
partnership excellence growth!