The Future of Higher Education in the Digital Era

The future of higher education
in the digital era
Adrian J. Ebsary - @AJEbsary
AdrianEbsary.com
Image: Visit Britain / Britain on view
http://bit.ly/1Uyotv7

Can we predict the future?
• Futurist predictions in 1997 book for the year 2025
– Roughly 66% accuracy for ‘on track’ predictions
– Similar to 68% accuracy from futurists in 1967
predicting 30 years later
Hines, A. World Future
Review. 2009
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What makes a good futurist?
Forecast Accuracy
Experience
(Ability)
Employer size
(Resources)
Number of firms and
industries followed
(Complexity)
Clement, M.B. Journal of
Accounting and Economics. 1999
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• The best forecasters of world politics:
– Scored higher on intelligence and political knowledge
– More open-minded cognitive styles
– Benefited from probability training
– Profited from better working environments & teams
– Spent more time deliberating and updating forecasts
Mellers, B. et al. Journal of
Experimental Psychology:
Applied. 2015

• Exceptionalism lies in quantitative trend forecasting
– Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns
– Certain kinds of progress are exponential, not linear
http://bit.ly/KurzweilBigThink

What do futurists do?
• Illustration by David Plunkert
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Analytical Framework for Futurism
• Framing
– What’s happening right now?
• Scanning
– What do the trends tell us about tomorrow?
• Describing
– What are some potential futures?
• Visioning
– How do we want to shape the future?
• Planning
– What is our roadmap for shaping the future?
http://profuturists.org/futurists
AdrianEbsary.com

Framing - Will the change matter?
• Pew Research Center survey of 1,021 “Internet experts”
on the future of higher education
http://bit.ly/FutureHighEd

Environmental Scanning
Environmental Scanning: What it
is, how to do it… Thinking
Futures. 2009
http://bit.ly/EnviroScan
AdrianEbsary.com

Environmental Scanning with STEEP
• STEEP =
–Society
–Technology
–Environmental
–Economy
–Political
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Society
AdrianEbsary.com
Image: http://blog.arkieva.com/my-network-design-is-not-
your-network-design/

Society – massification continues
• Demand for higher education is rising
Ho Mok, et al. Higher education
governance in crisis: a critical
reflection on the massification of
higher education, graduate
employment and social mobility.
Journal of Education and Work. 2015
http://bit.ly/EnviroScan
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Society – Vocational focus for learning
• “Now, this model of liberal arts education is under threat.
Students come to college hell-bent on learning
something that will make them employable.”
• “This is an understandable response to the economic
uncertainties of our age, and to the extraordinary cost of
an education […].”
• “Whether eighteen-year-olds are experiencing this
economic anxiety themselves, or whether it is being
hammered into them by their parents, I don’t know.”
http://bit.ly/whatishigheredfor

Society – Teaching & research
• Are teaching and research compatible?
http://bit.ly/CAPsurvey2007
AdrianEbsary.com

Society - Mature Enterprise Syndrome
• “…American higher education has become what,
in the business world, would be called a mature
enterprise: increasingly risk averse, at times self-
satisfied, and unduly expensive.”
• “Without serious self-examination and reform,
institutions of higher education risk falling into the
same trap [as other failed industries], seeing
their market share substantially reduced and
their services increasingly characterized by
obsolescence.”
Spellings Report.
US Department of
Education. 2006
http://bit.ly/SpellingsReport
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Society - Mature Enterprise Syndrome
• “It is harder to innovate in a mature enterprise.”
White, et al. Innovations in
Higher Education: Implications
for the Future. New Directions
for Higher Education
http://bit.ly/NewInnovationsHigherEd
AdrianEbsary.com

Society - Questions
• Will higher education innovate or lose to competitors?
• Will demand for higher education continue to rise?
• Will certain countries choose to change the relationship
between teaching and research?
AdrianEbsary.com

Technology
AdrianEbsary.com
Image: http://sdtimes.com/idcs-top-10-technology-predictions-2015/

Technology – Open Education
• Open educational resources (1-5 years)
– Students need lower cost content
– Industry needs to get more flexible with product offerings
– Intellectual property law needs to progress
Mintz, S. The Future
of Higher Education.
InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FutureInsideHighEd
AdrianEbsary.com

Technology – 3D Printing
• 3D Printing (1-5 years)
– New options for personalization reduce demand for
non-customized in-store goods
– Gateway to more sustainable production
– Become a valuable tool (or toolmaker) for researchers
across fields
http://bit.ly/3Dprintfuture
Image: http://bit.ly/1i9OgbZ

Technology – Virtual Reality
• Virtual and augmented reality (1-5 years)
– Provided viable distance-learning options
– Help scale delivery of classroom experiences
– By 2030s, “virtual reality will begin to feel 100% real”
http://bit.ly/KurzweilPredicts
AdrianEbsary.com

Technology - Gamification
• Gamification in pedagogy (5-10 years)
– “Gamification can motivate students to engage in the
classroom, give teachers better tools to guide and reward
students, and get students to bring their full selves to the
pursuit of learning.”
– “It makes sense to try to utilize [game] concepts to
improve education. But if we want to make lasting
significant changes, we have to reinvent the whole
system.” – Prof. Atsusi Hirumi
http://bit.ly/EduGamification
Lee and Hammer. Academic
Exchange Quarterly. 2011
Firth. Pegasus: The Magazine of the
University of Central Florida. 2015
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Technology – Modular Curricula
• Personalized curricula, modularization &
hybrid degrees (5-10 years)
– Help students adapt to changes in job
market signals
– Modularizing curricula provides clearer
metrics for employers with unique needs
InsideHigherEd.com
http://bit.ly/FastCompanyFuture
Hullinger, J. This is
the future of college.
Fast Company. 2015

Technology – Analytics
• Learning analytics enabled by more sensors (5-10 years)
– “These tools offer innovative ways to predict student
success, measure achievement of learning outcomes,
and drive improvements in admissions, pedagogy,
and student support services.”
InsideHigherEd.com
AdrianEbsary.com
Image: http://bit.ly/1LUPq4G

Technology – Analytics
• Learning analytics enabled by more sensors (5-10 years)
– “And newer endeavors […] can alert students to toxic
course combinations and provide an early warnings of
at-risk behavior to faculty, advisers, and the students
themselves.”
InsideHigherEd.com
Image: http://bit.ly/1LUPq4G
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Technology - Biometrics
• Biometrically-verified online identity systems (5-10 years)
– Physical traits & behavioural signs inform learning analytics
– Users want to protect valuable digital identities
– No more passwords
Image: http://bit.ly/1K3Qdg0

Technology – Global Brain (AI-enabled)
• Collective knowledge mapping with Global Brain (10-20 years)
– Mapping known vs. unknown reveals opportunities
– Contributions factor into learning analytics
– Human level intelligence by 2029, predicts Kurzweil
O’Reilly, T. Towards
a Global Brain.
GreenBiz.com
http://bit.ly/GlobalBrainTim
http://bit.ly/KurzweilAIprediction
AdrianEbsary.com

Technology - Questions
• How will these technologies facilitate distance learning?
• In what areas of education will distance learning
become the norm?
• Will new teaching technologies allow fewer teachers to
engage with more students?
AdrianEbsary.com

Environmental
Image: http://bit.ly/1FvnhfF
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Environmental – Climate Change
• “… things will start going haywire in the tropics at
around the year 2020, and in [places further from the
equator] around 2047.”
Eric Zuesse, Huffington Post, about:
Mora, C. et al. The Projected timing of climate departure from
recent variability. 2013

Environmental – Climate Change
• Higher Ed Climate Adaptation Committee findings:
“1. Have a critical role to play in preparing society to adapt
to the impacts of climate disruption by providing research
and education around adaption strategies and science.”
“7. Should aim to identify adaptation strategies that also
contribute to mitigation efforts.”
http://bit.ly/ClimateCommitment
AdrianEbsary.com

Environmental – Questions
• Could restrictions on energy usage discourage
displacement and encourage online learning?
• Will the economic impacts of climate change reduce
enrollment capacity for traditional institutions?
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Economy
AdrianEbsary.com
Image:
http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/06/news/economy/economy-
improving/

Economy – The Future of Work
• Disruptions that could radically change the future of work
Störmer, et al. The
future of Work: Jobs
and Skills in 2030.
http://bit.ly/FutureOfWork2030
AdrianEbsary.com

Economy - Technological Job
Displacement
• “Will networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI)
applications and robotic devices have displaced more
jobs than they have created by 2025?”
– Nearly 2,000 experts surveyed:
48%
YES
52%
NO
http://bit.ly/PewJobsAndRobots
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Displacement
– Team NO major arguments:
• Tech displaces some work while creating more
• We invent new types of work
AdrianEbsary.com

Displacement
– Team NO major arguments:
• Tech displaces some work while creating more
• We invent new types of work
– Team YES major arguments:
• Blue-collar work first, then white-collar
• Might create new jobs, but promote inequality
AdrianEbsary.com

Displacement
– Both teams agree:
• Our education system is not preparing workers!
AdrianEbsary.com

Displacement
• “We may lose as much as 25% of all
‘simple’ jobs because of smart
machines, AI, robotics and
automation, e.g., data input clerks,
analysts (some), check-out clerks, cab
drivers, etc. In the next 25 years, that
loss may be as much as 50% of all
jobs as ‘machines’ get even better.”
Gerd Leonhard (@gleonhard)in
Rudy De Waele's (@mtrends)
Shift 2020
AdrianEbsary.com

Economy – Zero Hour Contracts
• Flexible contracts with few guarantees for the employee
• Huge benefits for employer, fewer for employee
AdrianEbsary.com

Economy - Questions
• How will job loss due to automation compete with job
creation?
• Will zero-hour contracts receive government regulations
to prevent employee abuses?
AdrianEbsary.com

Politics
Image: http://thepolitic.org/understanding-politics/
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Politics – Funding Sources
• Worldwide trends influencing how we finance higher ed:
Increasing demand
Increasingly
knowledge-based
economies
Increasing
Globalization
Increasing liberalization of economies
(Increasing privatization of public education)
http://bit.ly/UNESCOtrends

Politics – Funding Sources
• Worldwide trends influencing how we finance higher ed:
Increasing demand Decreasing revenue, increasing costs
Increasingly
knowledge-based
economies
Increasing
Globalization
Increasing cost per student
(rising faster than inflation)
Government-tax revenues
can’t keep up with cost
Increasing reliance on
non-tax revenues
Increasing importance
of financial assistance
Increasing liberalization of economies
(Increasing privatization of public education)
http://bit.ly/UNESCOtrends

Politics – Institutional Specialization
AdrianEbsary.com

Politics – Incentivize Student Outcomes
• Should university funding be linked to lifetime career
outcome for graduates?
– “The America’s College Promise (ACP) proposal in
the President’s budget would encourage community
colleges to strengthen their programs and increase
the number of students who graduate by
adopting promising and evidence-based institutional
reforms and innovative practices to improve
student outcomes.”
http://bit.ly/HigherEdSuccess
AdrianEbsary.com

Politics - Questions
• How will governments choose to fund education in the
future?
• What legislative decisions will governments make that
affect higher education governance?
• Will politicians move to protect flexible working
situations and prevent abuses of zero-hour contracts?
AdrianEbsary.com

Models for future higher education
AdrianEbsary.com
Image:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnebersole/2014/01/13/top-
issues-facing-higher-education-in-2014/

• Different ways to get a bachelor’s
– Three-year and accelerated bachelors
– Multiple education providers
InsideHigherEd.com
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• The bare-bones University
– Lower-cost, online education with focus on teaching
– Limited enrollment related to local workforce needs
InsideHigherEd.com
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• Experimental models
– Online-only
– Flipped classrooms
– Intership-focused
– Minimalist or virtual campuses
– Entrepreneurial universities
InsideHigherEd.com
Etzkowitz, et al. The future of the
university an the university of the
future: evolution of ivory tower to
entrepreneurial paradigm.
Research Policy. 2000
http://bit.ly/EntrepreneurialUnis
AdrianEbsary.com

• Corporate Universities
– Deloitte, Disney, Motorola, etc. universities
– Displace traditional education with job focus
– Longer term investment in specialized employees
InsideHigherEd.com
AdrianEbsary.com

Brint. Creating the Future:
‘New Directions’in
American Research
Universities. Minerva. 2005
http://bit.ly/CreatingTheFuture
AdrianEbsary.com

Two scenarios for the future
Image by Studio Pei-Zhu
and Slab Architechture
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Future scenarios – the constants
• Climate change increases price of displacement
– Delocalized, stay in your network to study
• Vocational focus continues due to uncertain job markets
– Modular education offers adaptability (employablility)
• More diverse funding for institutions, researchers, students
– Student sponsors, KickStarter research, brand giving
games
AdrianEbsary.com

Undergrad education supply ↑
• Undergrad education supply increases, dropping price
– Necessity for undergraduate degree increases for most jobs
– Universal undergrad experience for discovery and growth
– Local organizations offer simulated ‘campus experience’
AdrianEbsary.com

Undergrad education supply ↑
• Undergrad education supply increases, dropping price
– Necessity for undergraduate degree increases for most jobs
– Universal undergrad experience for discovery and growth
• Massification continues, leading to mega institutions for
post-grad research and entrepreneurship
– Teaching & research more closely linked for postgrads
– Extreme competition for fewer subsidized positions
– More opportunities for top performers to access education
AdrianEbsary.com

Undergrad education supply ↓
• Undergrad education supply decreases, increasing price
– Vocational schooling or certification rises in popularity
– Higher education restricted to young, top performers or rich
AdrianEbsary.com

Undergrad education supply ↓
• Undergrad education supply decreases, increasing price
– Vocational schooling or certification rises in popularity
– Higher education restricted to young, top performers or rich
• Massification trend stops, leading to expensive mega
institutions for undergrad and postgrad education
– Teaching and research linked for all students in system
– Emphasis on student recruiting and retention due to cost
– Rising inequity in access to education due to cost
AdrianEbsary.com

Which future will you shape?
Image by Greg Githens:
http://bit.ly/PxFourFuturism
AdrianEbsary.com

Contact
• About.me/AJEbsary
• AdrianEbsary.com
• Twitter: @AJEbsary
• Facebook.com/AJEbsary
• Linkedin.com/in/AJEbsary

The Future of Higher Education in the Digital Era

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