This document discusses strategic foresight as a tool for territorial governance. It begins with an introduction and overview of strategic foresight. It then outlines the strategic foresight process, which includes framing questions, scanning horizons, forecasting futures, visioning preferred futures, planning options, and taking action. Key dimensions of uncertainty and potential future scenarios are also discussed, including "Jazz", "Lords of Misrule", and "Wise Counsels". The document explores driving forces for changes in areas like society, technology, economics, environment, and politics that could impact the built environment.
Woven Air - the beauty and the horrors of urban settlement
This is a photographic exploration of the pattern of cities or ‘urban’ form mainly from the air.
From the early rural start through to future visions cities have been built for access to resources and security, among others. ‘Cities’ also grew based on the means of transport earlier on foot or cart, the present almost exclusively the car and future visions on futuristic transport systems, but also now more with a nod to the climate crisis.
Modern cities, including ‘smart’ cities have seldom been designed with people predominantly in mind.
Thriveable cities will be climate sensitive, carbon (gross) neutral – but with all this in mind cities will be people/nature centric. Designed for people, not mainly transport systems, nor mainly technological systems, etc.
No descriptions or locations of these cities are included – so look at the form, patterns, climate response, and geographic resources. Together with transport or mobility methods, and from these draw your own conclusions of where we should be thinking.
Look at the 24 earlier Urban Books for ideas of what could/should be considered and possible new ideas.
Urban Hub 21 : Coming of Age in a post covid 19 age "Dare to Dream"Paul van Schaık
*UPDATED*
This is the 21st volume of our Integral Urban Hub series on Thriveable Cities.
As such we have called it Coming of Age.
The Urban Hub series showcases ideas, theories, tools, stories and dreams as part of an Integral Methodological Pluralism. Covering these ideas within an Integral Framework. Views from perspectives of culture, systems, consciousness, psychology & value-systems –and behaviour .
At the start of planning this volume Covid19 followed by BLM struck and we paused to think how to proceed. Dare to Dream emerged as an appropriate framing.
We know that utopias are unrealistic dreams although they may guide us to more constructive stories. Being aware that the only way to proceed is to ‘Transcend the failed narrative but to include what is good and needed in the old narrative. The future must be broader and more ‘conscious’ than the present. It must also take, as far as is possible, everyone with it. Covid19 & BLM has shown, if nothing else, that if we don’t take, by leadership and co-creation, everyone with us, improvements will never take hold and become mere wishful thinking.
Here we share a few dares.
Urban Hub 26 Cities, People & Climate Change - Thriveable WorldsPaul van Schaık
A series of books from integralMENTORS Integral UrbanHub work on Thriving people & Thriveable Cities
Too little courage and we will fail – too much certainty and we will fail. But with care and collaboration we have a chance of bringing forth emergent impacts through innovation, syngeneic enfoldment & collaborative effort.
A deeper understanding of a broader framework will be required – this would be more that an integral vision and beyond the Eurocentric AQAL & SDI.
Cities, People & Climate Chaos
No one vision is sufficient in and of itself – visions can guide but only by collaborative action in a creative generative process can visions grow and become part of an ongoing positive sociocultural reality.
Without taking into account the many worldviews that currently co-exist and crafting ways of including them in a positive and healthy form we will continue to alienate vast sections of all communities of humankind.
This document discusses eight stages of social development that cultures progress through in response to life conditions. It argues that external solutions to social problems like those related to globalization will not work unless they also address the interior social development levels of individuals and cultures. The stages are like evolving cultural waves or value systems that form the identity of groups. While all are legitimate human expressions, some stages have greater capacity to deal with complex modern issues. The document will describe the eight stages, appropriate economic and political models for each, and postulates for achieving global cohesion across developmental differences.
Urban Hub 18 : Housing and Community : Thriveable CitiesPaul van Schaık
This document provides an overview of Paul van Schaik's work on developing thriveable cities through his urban hub project at integralMENTORS. It discusses how cities are facing major sustainability challenges but are also centers of innovation. There is an urgency to develop quantitative and predictive frameworks to understand cities and inform policymakers, as noted by Geoffrey West. The document outlines topics that the urban hub project covers, such as community, urban density, designing with nature, and how housing can build community.
These are slides from a lecture given to students at Shenkar Design & Management, on the importance of Futures literacy. Tel Aviv, Israel May 2020. The lecture is a "Gonzo" style expedition into my world of practice, the world of Futures thinking, design, Futures literacy, research and development. The journey takes us to the current new normal era we live in from different perspectives, the rising acknowledgment in Design as a plethora of various disciplines, into futures thinking, world-building, design fiction, futures design, science fiction prototyping, speculative design, critical design, strategic foresight, human-centred thinking, future of living
This document summarizes a report from the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) about their Vision 2050 initiative. The WBCSD is a coalition of over 200 global companies working to promote sustainability. Their Vision 2050 project developed a pathway for businesses to help achieve a sustainable world by 2050 where 9 billion people live well within planetary boundaries. The pathway has 9 elements including sustainable human development, low-carbon energy and power, sustainable agriculture and materials management. The document outlines opportunities for businesses in areas like cities, energy, and new products to help drive the transition to more sustainable economies and lifestyles.
This document presents Vision 2050, which outlines a collaborative effort between 29 companies to envision the world in 2050 with 9 billion people living sustainably within planetary boundaries. It identifies key challenges of population growth, resource degradation, and the need to meet dual goals of high human development and low environmental impact. The vision's pathway to 2050 focuses on 9 elements: human development, economy, agriculture, forests, energy, buildings, mobility, materials. It highlights business opportunities in sustainability-related sectors and the need for collaboration to halve emissions, double agriculture output and increase resource efficiency.
Woven Air - the beauty and the horrors of urban settlement
This is a photographic exploration of the pattern of cities or ‘urban’ form mainly from the air.
From the early rural start through to future visions cities have been built for access to resources and security, among others. ‘Cities’ also grew based on the means of transport earlier on foot or cart, the present almost exclusively the car and future visions on futuristic transport systems, but also now more with a nod to the climate crisis.
Modern cities, including ‘smart’ cities have seldom been designed with people predominantly in mind.
Thriveable cities will be climate sensitive, carbon (gross) neutral – but with all this in mind cities will be people/nature centric. Designed for people, not mainly transport systems, nor mainly technological systems, etc.
No descriptions or locations of these cities are included – so look at the form, patterns, climate response, and geographic resources. Together with transport or mobility methods, and from these draw your own conclusions of where we should be thinking.
Look at the 24 earlier Urban Books for ideas of what could/should be considered and possible new ideas.
Urban Hub 21 : Coming of Age in a post covid 19 age "Dare to Dream"Paul van Schaık
*UPDATED*
This is the 21st volume of our Integral Urban Hub series on Thriveable Cities.
As such we have called it Coming of Age.
The Urban Hub series showcases ideas, theories, tools, stories and dreams as part of an Integral Methodological Pluralism. Covering these ideas within an Integral Framework. Views from perspectives of culture, systems, consciousness, psychology & value-systems –and behaviour .
At the start of planning this volume Covid19 followed by BLM struck and we paused to think how to proceed. Dare to Dream emerged as an appropriate framing.
We know that utopias are unrealistic dreams although they may guide us to more constructive stories. Being aware that the only way to proceed is to ‘Transcend the failed narrative but to include what is good and needed in the old narrative. The future must be broader and more ‘conscious’ than the present. It must also take, as far as is possible, everyone with it. Covid19 & BLM has shown, if nothing else, that if we don’t take, by leadership and co-creation, everyone with us, improvements will never take hold and become mere wishful thinking.
Here we share a few dares.
Urban Hub 26 Cities, People & Climate Change - Thriveable WorldsPaul van Schaık
A series of books from integralMENTORS Integral UrbanHub work on Thriving people & Thriveable Cities
Too little courage and we will fail – too much certainty and we will fail. But with care and collaboration we have a chance of bringing forth emergent impacts through innovation, syngeneic enfoldment & collaborative effort.
A deeper understanding of a broader framework will be required – this would be more that an integral vision and beyond the Eurocentric AQAL & SDI.
Cities, People & Climate Chaos
No one vision is sufficient in and of itself – visions can guide but only by collaborative action in a creative generative process can visions grow and become part of an ongoing positive sociocultural reality.
Without taking into account the many worldviews that currently co-exist and crafting ways of including them in a positive and healthy form we will continue to alienate vast sections of all communities of humankind.
This document discusses eight stages of social development that cultures progress through in response to life conditions. It argues that external solutions to social problems like those related to globalization will not work unless they also address the interior social development levels of individuals and cultures. The stages are like evolving cultural waves or value systems that form the identity of groups. While all are legitimate human expressions, some stages have greater capacity to deal with complex modern issues. The document will describe the eight stages, appropriate economic and political models for each, and postulates for achieving global cohesion across developmental differences.
Urban Hub 18 : Housing and Community : Thriveable CitiesPaul van Schaık
This document provides an overview of Paul van Schaik's work on developing thriveable cities through his urban hub project at integralMENTORS. It discusses how cities are facing major sustainability challenges but are also centers of innovation. There is an urgency to develop quantitative and predictive frameworks to understand cities and inform policymakers, as noted by Geoffrey West. The document outlines topics that the urban hub project covers, such as community, urban density, designing with nature, and how housing can build community.
These are slides from a lecture given to students at Shenkar Design & Management, on the importance of Futures literacy. Tel Aviv, Israel May 2020. The lecture is a "Gonzo" style expedition into my world of practice, the world of Futures thinking, design, Futures literacy, research and development. The journey takes us to the current new normal era we live in from different perspectives, the rising acknowledgment in Design as a plethora of various disciplines, into futures thinking, world-building, design fiction, futures design, science fiction prototyping, speculative design, critical design, strategic foresight, human-centred thinking, future of living
This document summarizes a report from the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) about their Vision 2050 initiative. The WBCSD is a coalition of over 200 global companies working to promote sustainability. Their Vision 2050 project developed a pathway for businesses to help achieve a sustainable world by 2050 where 9 billion people live well within planetary boundaries. The pathway has 9 elements including sustainable human development, low-carbon energy and power, sustainable agriculture and materials management. The document outlines opportunities for businesses in areas like cities, energy, and new products to help drive the transition to more sustainable economies and lifestyles.
This document presents Vision 2050, which outlines a collaborative effort between 29 companies to envision the world in 2050 with 9 billion people living sustainably within planetary boundaries. It identifies key challenges of population growth, resource degradation, and the need to meet dual goals of high human development and low environmental impact. The vision's pathway to 2050 focuses on 9 elements: human development, economy, agriculture, forests, energy, buildings, mobility, materials. It highlights business opportunities in sustainability-related sectors and the need for collaboration to halve emissions, double agriculture output and increase resource efficiency.
Gregory vigneaux design thinking for the end of the worldGregory Vigneaux
This presentation brings together storytelling, design thinking, and complexity as it discusses approaching the difficult challenges facing Colorado’s emergency management community. Focused on problem framing, storytelling is explored as a key step in engaging with complex issues while the audience is invited to think about the stories they are currently telling about problems and consider how they might begin to craft different ones.
May 2010 cib - flight for the 21st centuryJohn Ratcliffe
The document discusses potential futures for humanity in the 21st century, referring to them as either "Icarus" or "The Phoenix".
It raises questions about how the current state of affairs was reached, where we are now in terms of issues like climate change, resources, and trust in institutions. It also questions what might lie ahead, whether anything can be done to influence the future in a positive way, and what the consequences may be if no action is taken.
The document advocates for a new mindset focused on sustainability, ethical leadership, and harnessing renewable energy to create a positive future trajectory for humanity.
This document outlines a project to re-examine the financial paradigm by incorporating insights from philosophy, social norms, neuroscience, and an increased focus on human consciousness and empathy. It discusses how the current financial system evolved from philosophical ideas like neo-liberalism and explores alternative views of human nature, consumption, and society. Findings from neuroscience on empathy, language and reflection are also reviewed. The document proposes that financial reform requires addressing root causes like addiction to growth and analyzing human behaviors, and suggests building a sustainable future through education, ethics, community and restoring trust.
Predicting mid-range global futures (2005-2050)Danila Medvedev
The document discusses various approaches to thinking about and predicting the future, including time periods to consider, common visions of the future, challenges, and who engages in future thinking. It notes limitations of science fiction, futurology, individual futurists, and short-term corporate predictions, and advocates for a systematic, technology-focused approach incorporating exponential trends to more accurately envision the mid-range future from 2005 to 2050.
Slides for the "tech talk" given by David Brin and Sheldon Brown at Google late 2006.
http://tinyurl.com/yy7yxm Where does the Net fit into 500 years of expanding tools for vision, memory and perspective? What missing pieces are people not noticing that might vastly improve problem-solving?
This document discusses the need for higher education leaders to adopt a futures-oriented perspective to help transcend the "flatlands" of traditional futures thinking. It argues that traditional approaches have focused too much on prediction, technology, and Western models of progress. A futures studies perspective can help open up more viable, visible, and valuable futures by considering alternative futures through concepts like foresight literacy and strategic thinking. It presents a leadership model called the "Triple-V" approach that integrates foresight, strategic thinking, and strategy formulation to help facilitate innovation and shape sustainable learning futures.
Effect of the singularity on social institutions indelmount
This document discusses the impact of technological progress and the Singularity on social institutions. It argues that technology has advanced exponentially throughout history, with accelerating growth rates. The Singularity refers to a future period where technological change will be so rapid it transforms human life. Advances in artificial intelligence and nanotechnology are expected to drive future innovations. This could fundamentally change institutions like healthcare, with nanotechnology enabling disease prevention and indefinite longevity. However, others argue Kurzweil's vision exceeds biological limits and that powerful virtual environments may be preferred to biological enhancements. The effects on spirituality are also uncertain given open questions around machine consciousness.
Initiating a U.Lab Hub in Roanoke - Leading Innovation from an Emerging FutureBrian McConnell
This presentation was created in July to initiate a satellite classroom ("hub") for Roanoke to support community members participating in MIT's upcoming U.Lab.
2nd-tier design, economic democracy, mind and matter, Scharmer, state-stages, structure-stages, U.Lab, U Theory, Wilber,
Please see:
http://integralcity2roanoke.blogspot.com/2014/12/roanokes-ulab-hub-challenge-for-local.html
http://integralcity2roanoke.blogspot.com/2014/12/roanokes-ulab-hub-challenge-for-local.html
This document discusses how history can help develop good judgement for anticipating the future. It provides the following key points:
1. Historians make good futurists because they understand how change happens gradually over long periods of time and can identify patterns and rough regularities rather than one-time events.
2. Learning from history involves zooming in to understand specific details and zooming out to draw broader generalizations, while recognizing that every context is unique and history does not repeat precisely.
3. Case studies of past failures in judgement, such as those that led to societal collapses, can provide an inventory of common mistakes to avoid in anticipating and responding to problems.
The document summarizes a valedictory lecture given by Professor John Ratcliffe on the future of universities and cities. It discusses 21 challenges facing the 21st century including issues like resources, sustainability, technology. It envisions prospects for universities in 2020, including the rise of mega universities, collaborative research, and blurring lines between universities and corporations. The need for strategic foresight and knowledge cities is discussed. Sustainability is presented as a grand challenge for universities like DIT to take on in transforming cities.
The document discusses the concept of geodesign and how maps and geospatial technologies can stage representations of the future. It argues that geodesign needs to go beyond neutral representations and efficiencies to consider relationality, complexity, empowerment, and questioning the conditions that enable certain futures to be envisioned over others. A critical geodesign is proposed that both visions alternative futures to address injustices, and perpetually questions the assumptions behind its own representations.
Swiss-Belhotel Craig Rispin Keynote "How to Think Like a Futurist" - May 4, 2018Craig Rispin
This document discusses why thinking like a futurist is important and provides tools and techniques used by futurists. It begins by highlighting quotes from historical figures about the importance of considering the future. It then defines what a futurist is and notes that futurism can be a formal career path with degrees available. The document outlines how futurists think on a global rather than local scale, with a long-term rather than short-term view considering multiple futures rather than one. Key futurist tools discussed include environmental scanning, scenario planning, and thinking across industries rather than focusing on just one.
The future of leadership is anything but predictable. We know for sure that it will be different from the way leadership is know and applied today. A different type of leader is going to emerge in the 4th wave.
Open structures // the power of logic versus logic of powerplamenalev
The document discusses open structures and open source culture. It talks about sharing information freely without price tags and breeding hybrid solutions to contemporary challenges. It advocates for new versions of democracy in infrastructure design that give users more participation and control through open frameworks. These frameworks would be digital, like open source codes, physical, through modular and reusable components, and logistical, through standardized structures that can be adapted locally. The power of logic and rational relations is contrasted with the logic of power, where large entities control urban environments. It argues for distributing power by giving inhabitants meaningful influence over their cities through open and symbiotic technologies.
Dr. Ahmad, Full Text; Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's IdeaDr. Ahmad, Futurist.
Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea, International Conference on Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global Scenario, India, 22-24 February 2016. Already cancelled in Scenario 2015 (Improving Scenario Methodology: Theory and Practice), WBS. UK, December 2015, p. 37. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/orms/ormsevents/scenario2015/programme/updated_11.12.pdf http://studylib.net/doc/13510220/scenario-2015-improving-scenario-methodology--theory-and-...
Environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity in many developing strategies, especially on the foresight and futures studies. These trends pose a fundamental question, what is the chalenges of future’s complexity? It seems before understanding the origin of Future Scenario's idea and laws governing the Future Time, we've gone into the application of Scenarios to build better stories about future.
In this paper we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios;
1. Idea ontology,
2. The origin of creative thinking,
3. Idea nurturing in organizations,
4. Shaping the future time,
5. Scenario planning,
6. Ideas social network (global brain).
This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. In fact, we seek to bridge an ontology base with an applied knowledge. According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources is valid and due to expert's continuous supervisions is reliable.
Conceptual Model that have been emerged from this investigation, shows how we can improve scenario planning ability and what actually should be done to have good scenarios.
- Globalization has increasingly become a key concept for understanding the modern world, but its meaning has become less precise over time.
- A global economy emerged in the late 20th century enabled by new information and communication technologies, allowing the world economy to function in real time across borders.
- There are two tendencies of globalization - cost-driven production models that deterritorialize across borders, and quality-driven models that cluster in regions seeking specialized resources and knowledge.
This document discusses the future and how digital technologies are driving shifts in many industries and aspects of society. Some key points:
- Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, robotics, and biotechnology will continue to disrupt many industries and potentially impact employment levels.
- Digital technologies have already transformed how human information is recorded and industries like music, news, and banking.
- Predicting the future is difficult, as change is deep and non-linear. Different narratives around technological progress, financial values, and ecological perspectives shape expectations.
- The future is not predetermined, but is influenced by the narratives we adopt and the decisions we make based on those narratives in the present. Liberal arts skills like creativity, empathy
Jabe Bloom and Ahmed Ansari
TEMPORALLY INFORMED TRANSITION DESIGN
COMPLEX TEMPORAL DESIGN
Interconnected and interdependent
‘systems problems’, exist at multiple levels
of scale within the social and environmental spheres
[Designers need to] understand
how to work iteratively, at multiple
levels of scale, over long horizons of time
Design has a key role to play in societal
transitions to more sustainable futures
Victor Van Rij Ircg Wildcards24 10presentation Abu D Abi[1]Victor Van Rij
The document discusses horizon scanning and wild cards as tools for shaping desirable futures and preparing for potential shocks and disruptions. It defines wild cards as low-probability but high-impact events that could significantly alter society and the future course of events. Both naturally-caused and human-caused wild cards are examined, with the latter being influenced by ideas, communication, and the potential for self-fulfilling prophecies. The value of wild card identification is discussed as a way to increase policy resilience and monitor early signals of disruptive changes. However, human-caused wild cards also pose risks if used to propagate undesirable narratives. Careful analysis of motivations and cultural contexts is needed when horizon scanning for potential wild cards.
HOW TO START UP A COMPANY A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE.pdf46adnanshahzad
How to Start Up a Company: A Step-by-Step Guide Starting a company is an exciting adventure that combines creativity, strategy, and hard work. It can seem overwhelming at first, but with the right guidance, anyone can transform a great idea into a successful business. Let's dive into how to start up a company, from the initial spark of an idea to securing funding and launching your startup.
Introduction
Have you ever dreamed of turning your innovative idea into a thriving business? Starting a company involves numerous steps and decisions, but don't worry—we're here to help. Whether you're exploring how to start a startup company or wondering how to start up a small business, this guide will walk you through the process, step by step.
Gregory vigneaux design thinking for the end of the worldGregory Vigneaux
This presentation brings together storytelling, design thinking, and complexity as it discusses approaching the difficult challenges facing Colorado’s emergency management community. Focused on problem framing, storytelling is explored as a key step in engaging with complex issues while the audience is invited to think about the stories they are currently telling about problems and consider how they might begin to craft different ones.
May 2010 cib - flight for the 21st centuryJohn Ratcliffe
The document discusses potential futures for humanity in the 21st century, referring to them as either "Icarus" or "The Phoenix".
It raises questions about how the current state of affairs was reached, where we are now in terms of issues like climate change, resources, and trust in institutions. It also questions what might lie ahead, whether anything can be done to influence the future in a positive way, and what the consequences may be if no action is taken.
The document advocates for a new mindset focused on sustainability, ethical leadership, and harnessing renewable energy to create a positive future trajectory for humanity.
This document outlines a project to re-examine the financial paradigm by incorporating insights from philosophy, social norms, neuroscience, and an increased focus on human consciousness and empathy. It discusses how the current financial system evolved from philosophical ideas like neo-liberalism and explores alternative views of human nature, consumption, and society. Findings from neuroscience on empathy, language and reflection are also reviewed. The document proposes that financial reform requires addressing root causes like addiction to growth and analyzing human behaviors, and suggests building a sustainable future through education, ethics, community and restoring trust.
Predicting mid-range global futures (2005-2050)Danila Medvedev
The document discusses various approaches to thinking about and predicting the future, including time periods to consider, common visions of the future, challenges, and who engages in future thinking. It notes limitations of science fiction, futurology, individual futurists, and short-term corporate predictions, and advocates for a systematic, technology-focused approach incorporating exponential trends to more accurately envision the mid-range future from 2005 to 2050.
Slides for the "tech talk" given by David Brin and Sheldon Brown at Google late 2006.
http://tinyurl.com/yy7yxm Where does the Net fit into 500 years of expanding tools for vision, memory and perspective? What missing pieces are people not noticing that might vastly improve problem-solving?
This document discusses the need for higher education leaders to adopt a futures-oriented perspective to help transcend the "flatlands" of traditional futures thinking. It argues that traditional approaches have focused too much on prediction, technology, and Western models of progress. A futures studies perspective can help open up more viable, visible, and valuable futures by considering alternative futures through concepts like foresight literacy and strategic thinking. It presents a leadership model called the "Triple-V" approach that integrates foresight, strategic thinking, and strategy formulation to help facilitate innovation and shape sustainable learning futures.
Effect of the singularity on social institutions indelmount
This document discusses the impact of technological progress and the Singularity on social institutions. It argues that technology has advanced exponentially throughout history, with accelerating growth rates. The Singularity refers to a future period where technological change will be so rapid it transforms human life. Advances in artificial intelligence and nanotechnology are expected to drive future innovations. This could fundamentally change institutions like healthcare, with nanotechnology enabling disease prevention and indefinite longevity. However, others argue Kurzweil's vision exceeds biological limits and that powerful virtual environments may be preferred to biological enhancements. The effects on spirituality are also uncertain given open questions around machine consciousness.
Initiating a U.Lab Hub in Roanoke - Leading Innovation from an Emerging FutureBrian McConnell
This presentation was created in July to initiate a satellite classroom ("hub") for Roanoke to support community members participating in MIT's upcoming U.Lab.
2nd-tier design, economic democracy, mind and matter, Scharmer, state-stages, structure-stages, U.Lab, U Theory, Wilber,
Please see:
http://integralcity2roanoke.blogspot.com/2014/12/roanokes-ulab-hub-challenge-for-local.html
http://integralcity2roanoke.blogspot.com/2014/12/roanokes-ulab-hub-challenge-for-local.html
This document discusses how history can help develop good judgement for anticipating the future. It provides the following key points:
1. Historians make good futurists because they understand how change happens gradually over long periods of time and can identify patterns and rough regularities rather than one-time events.
2. Learning from history involves zooming in to understand specific details and zooming out to draw broader generalizations, while recognizing that every context is unique and history does not repeat precisely.
3. Case studies of past failures in judgement, such as those that led to societal collapses, can provide an inventory of common mistakes to avoid in anticipating and responding to problems.
The document summarizes a valedictory lecture given by Professor John Ratcliffe on the future of universities and cities. It discusses 21 challenges facing the 21st century including issues like resources, sustainability, technology. It envisions prospects for universities in 2020, including the rise of mega universities, collaborative research, and blurring lines between universities and corporations. The need for strategic foresight and knowledge cities is discussed. Sustainability is presented as a grand challenge for universities like DIT to take on in transforming cities.
The document discusses the concept of geodesign and how maps and geospatial technologies can stage representations of the future. It argues that geodesign needs to go beyond neutral representations and efficiencies to consider relationality, complexity, empowerment, and questioning the conditions that enable certain futures to be envisioned over others. A critical geodesign is proposed that both visions alternative futures to address injustices, and perpetually questions the assumptions behind its own representations.
Swiss-Belhotel Craig Rispin Keynote "How to Think Like a Futurist" - May 4, 2018Craig Rispin
This document discusses why thinking like a futurist is important and provides tools and techniques used by futurists. It begins by highlighting quotes from historical figures about the importance of considering the future. It then defines what a futurist is and notes that futurism can be a formal career path with degrees available. The document outlines how futurists think on a global rather than local scale, with a long-term rather than short-term view considering multiple futures rather than one. Key futurist tools discussed include environmental scanning, scenario planning, and thinking across industries rather than focusing on just one.
The future of leadership is anything but predictable. We know for sure that it will be different from the way leadership is know and applied today. A different type of leader is going to emerge in the 4th wave.
Open structures // the power of logic versus logic of powerplamenalev
The document discusses open structures and open source culture. It talks about sharing information freely without price tags and breeding hybrid solutions to contemporary challenges. It advocates for new versions of democracy in infrastructure design that give users more participation and control through open frameworks. These frameworks would be digital, like open source codes, physical, through modular and reusable components, and logistical, through standardized structures that can be adapted locally. The power of logic and rational relations is contrasted with the logic of power, where large entities control urban environments. It argues for distributing power by giving inhabitants meaningful influence over their cities through open and symbiotic technologies.
Dr. Ahmad, Full Text; Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's IdeaDr. Ahmad, Futurist.
Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea, International Conference on Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global Scenario, India, 22-24 February 2016. Already cancelled in Scenario 2015 (Improving Scenario Methodology: Theory and Practice), WBS. UK, December 2015, p. 37. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/orms/ormsevents/scenario2015/programme/updated_11.12.pdf http://studylib.net/doc/13510220/scenario-2015-improving-scenario-methodology--theory-and-...
Environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity in many developing strategies, especially on the foresight and futures studies. These trends pose a fundamental question, what is the chalenges of future’s complexity? It seems before understanding the origin of Future Scenario's idea and laws governing the Future Time, we've gone into the application of Scenarios to build better stories about future.
In this paper we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios;
1. Idea ontology,
2. The origin of creative thinking,
3. Idea nurturing in organizations,
4. Shaping the future time,
5. Scenario planning,
6. Ideas social network (global brain).
This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. In fact, we seek to bridge an ontology base with an applied knowledge. According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources is valid and due to expert's continuous supervisions is reliable.
Conceptual Model that have been emerged from this investigation, shows how we can improve scenario planning ability and what actually should be done to have good scenarios.
- Globalization has increasingly become a key concept for understanding the modern world, but its meaning has become less precise over time.
- A global economy emerged in the late 20th century enabled by new information and communication technologies, allowing the world economy to function in real time across borders.
- There are two tendencies of globalization - cost-driven production models that deterritorialize across borders, and quality-driven models that cluster in regions seeking specialized resources and knowledge.
This document discusses the future and how digital technologies are driving shifts in many industries and aspects of society. Some key points:
- Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, robotics, and biotechnology will continue to disrupt many industries and potentially impact employment levels.
- Digital technologies have already transformed how human information is recorded and industries like music, news, and banking.
- Predicting the future is difficult, as change is deep and non-linear. Different narratives around technological progress, financial values, and ecological perspectives shape expectations.
- The future is not predetermined, but is influenced by the narratives we adopt and the decisions we make based on those narratives in the present. Liberal arts skills like creativity, empathy
Jabe Bloom and Ahmed Ansari
TEMPORALLY INFORMED TRANSITION DESIGN
COMPLEX TEMPORAL DESIGN
Interconnected and interdependent
‘systems problems’, exist at multiple levels
of scale within the social and environmental spheres
[Designers need to] understand
how to work iteratively, at multiple
levels of scale, over long horizons of time
Design has a key role to play in societal
transitions to more sustainable futures
Victor Van Rij Ircg Wildcards24 10presentation Abu D Abi[1]Victor Van Rij
The document discusses horizon scanning and wild cards as tools for shaping desirable futures and preparing for potential shocks and disruptions. It defines wild cards as low-probability but high-impact events that could significantly alter society and the future course of events. Both naturally-caused and human-caused wild cards are examined, with the latter being influenced by ideas, communication, and the potential for self-fulfilling prophecies. The value of wild card identification is discussed as a way to increase policy resilience and monitor early signals of disruptive changes. However, human-caused wild cards also pose risks if used to propagate undesirable narratives. Careful analysis of motivations and cultural contexts is needed when horizon scanning for potential wild cards.
HOW TO START UP A COMPANY A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE.pdf46adnanshahzad
How to Start Up a Company: A Step-by-Step Guide Starting a company is an exciting adventure that combines creativity, strategy, and hard work. It can seem overwhelming at first, but with the right guidance, anyone can transform a great idea into a successful business. Let's dive into how to start up a company, from the initial spark of an idea to securing funding and launching your startup.
Introduction
Have you ever dreamed of turning your innovative idea into a thriving business? Starting a company involves numerous steps and decisions, but don't worry—we're here to help. Whether you're exploring how to start a startup company or wondering how to start up a small business, this guide will walk you through the process, step by step.
Brian Fitzsimmons on the Business Strategy and Content Flywheel of Barstool S...Neil Horowitz
On episode 272 of the Digital and Social Media Sports Podcast, Neil chatted with Brian Fitzsimmons, Director of Licensing and Business Development for Barstool Sports.
What follows is a collection of snippets from the podcast. To hear the full interview and more, check out the podcast on all podcast platforms and at www.dsmsports.net
Discover timeless style with the 2022 Vintage Roman Numerals Men's Ring. Crafted from premium stainless steel, this 6mm wide ring embodies elegance and durability. Perfect as a gift, it seamlessly blends classic Roman numeral detailing with modern sophistication, making it an ideal accessory for any occasion.
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The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024.pdfthesiliconleaders
In the recent edition, The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024, The Silicon Leaders magazine gladly features Dejan Štancer, President of the Global Chamber of Business Leaders (GCBL), along with other leaders.
B2B payments are rapidly changing. Find out the 5 key questions you need to be asking yourself to be sure you are mastering B2B payments today. Learn more at www.BlueSnap.com.
IMPACT Silver is a pure silver zinc producer with over $260 million in revenue since 2008 and a large 100% owned 210km Mexico land package - 2024 catalysts includes new 14% grade zinc Plomosas mine and 20,000m of fully funded exploration drilling.
Building Your Employer Brand with Social MediaLuanWise
Presented at The Global HR Summit, 6th June 2024
In this keynote, Luan Wise will provide invaluable insights to elevate your employer brand on social media platforms including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok. You'll learn how compelling content can authentically showcase your company culture, values, and employee experiences to support your talent acquisition and retention objectives. Additionally, you'll understand the power of employee advocacy to amplify reach and engagement – helping to position your organization as an employer of choice in today's competitive talent landscape.
The Genesis of BriansClub.cm Famous Dark WEb PlatformSabaaSudozai
BriansClub.cm, a famous platform on the dark web, has become one of the most infamous carding marketplaces, specializing in the sale of stolen credit card data.
[To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
This presentation is a curated compilation of PowerPoint diagrams and templates designed to illustrate 20 different digital transformation frameworks and models. These frameworks are based on recent industry trends and best practices, ensuring that the content remains relevant and up-to-date.
Key highlights include Microsoft's Digital Transformation Framework, which focuses on driving innovation and efficiency, and McKinsey's Ten Guiding Principles, which provide strategic insights for successful digital transformation. Additionally, Forrester's framework emphasizes enhancing customer experiences and modernizing IT infrastructure, while IDC's MaturityScape helps assess and develop organizational digital maturity. MIT's framework explores cutting-edge strategies for achieving digital success.
These materials are perfect for enhancing your business or classroom presentations, offering visual aids to supplement your insights. Please note that while comprehensive, these slides are intended as supplementary resources and may not be complete for standalone instructional purposes.
Frameworks/Models included:
Microsoft’s Digital Transformation Framework
McKinsey’s Ten Guiding Principles of Digital Transformation
Forrester’s Digital Transformation Framework
IDC’s Digital Transformation MaturityScape
MIT’s Digital Transformation Framework
Gartner’s Digital Transformation Framework
Accenture’s Digital Strategy & Enterprise Frameworks
Deloitte’s Digital Industrial Transformation Framework
Capgemini’s Digital Transformation Framework
PwC’s Digital Transformation Framework
Cisco’s Digital Transformation Framework
Cognizant’s Digital Transformation Framework
DXC Technology’s Digital Transformation Framework
The BCG Strategy Palette
McKinsey’s Digital Transformation Framework
Digital Transformation Compass
Four Levels of Digital Maturity
Design Thinking Framework
Business Model Canvas
Customer Journey Map
At Techbox Square, in Singapore, we're not just creative web designers and developers, we're the driving force behind your brand identity. Contact us today.
How MJ Global Leads the Packaging Industry.pdfMJ Global
MJ Global's success in staying ahead of the curve in the packaging industry is a testament to its dedication to innovation, sustainability, and customer-centricity. By embracing technological advancements, leading in eco-friendly solutions, collaborating with industry leaders, and adapting to evolving consumer preferences, MJ Global continues to set new standards in the packaging sector.
Anny Serafina Love - Letter of Recommendation by Kellen Harkins, MS.AnnySerafinaLove
This letter, written by Kellen Harkins, Course Director at Full Sail University, commends Anny Love's exemplary performance in the Video Sharing Platforms class. It highlights her dedication, willingness to challenge herself, and exceptional skills in production, editing, and marketing across various video platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram.
Hamster Kombat' Telegram Game Surpasses 100 Million Players—Token Release Sch...
"Whither Strategic Foresight?"
1. Urban Foresight As A Tool For Territorial Governance “Whither Strategic Foresight?” Professor John S Ratcliffe Brussels September 2011
2. Is this humanity’s last century – or a century that sets the world on a course towards a spectacular new future? A NEW MINDSET “The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by sceptics or cynics whose horizons are limited by the obvious realities. We need men who can dream of things that never were.” (John F. Kennedy)
3. The Harbingers of Change A Confluence of Powerful Trends Problems Seem Intractable The Demographics of Discord The ‘New Players’ Problems are Structural “Flight For The 21st Century: ‘Icarus’ Or ‘The Phoenix’ ” “The unusual and the unknown make us either over confident or overly fearful” (Gaius Julius Caesar)
4. “Icarus” – Prevailing Pessimism Population Growth Climate Change Food and Water Safety and Security Energy Deficit “If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going.” (Irwin Corey)
5. “The Phoenix” – Rational Optimism Urban Prospect Developing Technology A New Economy The Natural Step New Nuclear “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty” (Winston Churchill)
6. The Need for Vision “A vision without a task is but a dream A task without a vision is drudgery A vision with a task is the hope of the world” (Inscription in a church, Sussex, England, 1730) “No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it. We must learn to see the world anew” (Albert Einstein)
7. Present Problems Change, Complexity and Risk / Uncertainty Lack of an Integrated Approach Short-term Orientation Obsolescence of ‘Predict and Provide’ Model Limited Collaboration of Stakeholders “It’s not the strong that survive – but the most adaptable” (Charles Darwin)
8. Why Foresight? Running a 21st century city region more complex Need to understand driving forces of change Trends matter – weak signals count Anticipation and exploration prerequisite Rehearsing alternative futures “The Empires of the future are the Empires of the mind” (Winston Churchill)
9. What Is Foresight? Strategic foresight (SF) is having a view of what can be done by organisations and societies today to positively influence the future. SF is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in civic and organisationally useful ways. SF is thinking about, debating and shaping the future. “Have deep roots, a strong trunk, live long by looking long.” (Lao Tzu)
10. Foresight Teams Contribution Anticipating emerging issues Identifying unintended consequences Getting a sense of the big picture Drawing on a wide range of information sources Involving all concerned “Business today consists of persuading crowds”
11. STAGE OBJECTIVES OUTPUT Framing Scoping the project : attitude, audience, work environment, rationale and purpose, objectives and teams. Focal Issue Scanning Collecting the information : the system, history and context of the issue and how to scan for information regarding the future of issue. Information Forecasting Describing baseline and alternative futures : drivers and uncertainties, tools, diverging and converging approaches, and alternatives. Baseline and Alternative Futures Visioning Choosing a preferred future : implications of the forecast, and envisioning desired outcomes. Preferred Future Planning Organising to achieve the vision : strategy, options and plans. Strategy and Plans Acting Implementing the plan : communicating the results, developing action agenda and institutionalising strategic thinking and intelligence systems. Action Strategic Foresight
12. High to Low Importance Set the Strategic Question Identify the Driving Forces of Change Divergence Determine the Main Issues and Trends Clarify the Level of Impact and Degree of Uncertainty Establish Scenario Logics Emergence Create Different Scenarios Test Policy Options Identify Turning Points Produce Prospective Convergence Move to Strategic Planning Prospective Through Scenarios Strategic Conversations Causal Layered Analysis Horizon Scanning Delphi Survey Cross-ImpactAnalysis Prospective Workshops Clustering Polarising Ranking VERGE Creative Writing Wind Tunnel Testing Gaming and Simulation
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14. The Strategic Foresight Process Framing the Strategic Question(s) Scanning the Horizon Forecasting Alternative Futures Visioning A Preferred Future Planning Strategic Options Acting on an Agreed Agenda “Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world” (Arthur Schopenhauer)
15. Framing The Strategic Question Adjust Attitudes Recognise the Character of Change Understand the Rationale and Purpose Weave ‘Outside and Then’ with ‘Inside and Now’ Set Objectives “It is not the answer that enlightens but the question” (Eugène Ionesco)
16. Scanning The Horizon Map the System Conduct a Stakeholder Analysis Start by Looking Backwards Explore the Unfamiliar Consult ‘Remarkable People’ "Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future." (John F. Kennedy)
17. Forecasting Alternative Futures Identify Drivers, Trends, Issues Look for Turning Points Generate Divergent Ideas Prioritise Convergent Views Form Alternative Futures “If you can dream it, you can do it” (Walt Disney)
18. Visioning A Preferred Future Identify Implications/Unintended Consequences Think of the Longer-Term Challenge Assumptions Ask ‘What if ?’ Questions Develop a Strategic Vision and Goals “You can analyse the past and appraise the present, but you have to design the future”
19. Planning Strategic Options Think Strategically to Provoke Strategic Conversations Spot Areas of Strategic Choice by Identifying Critical Branching Points Base Strategic Recommendations On Organisations Distinctive Attributes Evaluate Proposed Strategy Along Multiple Dimensions Have Contingency Plans for Unexpected Surprises “The future is the only kind of property that the masters willingly concede to slaves” (Albert Camus)
20. Acting On An Agreed Agenda Communicate Results Effectively Create an Action Plan with a Sense of Urgency Identify Milestones on the Path Towards a Preferred Future Establish an Intelligence System Institutionalise Strategic Thinking “You can only predict things after they have happened” (Eugène Ionesco)
21. What Are The Prospects?“Can we go on like this?” Meta-forces Macro-forces Micro-forces “Reason is, and ought only to be the slave of the passions and can never pretend to any other office than to serve and obey them” (David Hume, 1783)
22. However, the history of modern societies suggest also something for our future…. Figure 1: Kondratieff cycles – long waves of prosperity.Rolling 10-year yield on the S&P 500 since 1814 till March 2009 (in %, p. a.) Source: Datastream; Illustration: Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis
23. Three Meta-forces VALUES VISIONS VECTORS “Unless the investment in children is made, all of humanity's most fundamental long-term problems will remain fundamental long-term problems.” (UNICEF)
24. Values The Transformation Towards A Sustainable Responsible Civilization “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.” (Edmund Burke)
25. DOWN UP Ecological footprint Improving people’s health and well-being while respecting the limits of natural resources *HDI = life expectancy + education level + purchasing power Human Development Index* Health & Well-being Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2006 "Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development."
26. The Great Global Values Debate Millennium Development Goals Cultures Consequences Spiral Dynamics World Values Survey Interfaith Dialogue “Believe those who are seeking the truth; doubt those who find it” (André Gide )
27. Cultural Values Map “What we call basic truths are simply the ones we discover after all the others” (Albert Camus)
28. Visions “Twenty-first Century Enlightenment” Self-Aware Autonomy Empathetic Universalism Progress and Ethics The Social Aspiration Gap Signposts to 21st C. Enlightenment “Government is a badge of lost innocence… For were the impulses of conscience clear, uniform and irresistibly obeyed, man would need no other lawgiver” (Thomas Paine)
32. Vectors “An agent that acts as a carrier or transporter” Globalisation Urbanisation Environmentalism Internet Social Media Faith – Based Movements Terrorism Pandemics “The Internet is becoming the town square for the global village of tomorrow.” (Bill Gates )
35. Imagineering the Built Environment STRATEGIC FORESIGHT 2030“Just Imagine!” Professor John S Ratcliffe July 2011
36. Exordium A Changing World The New, The Many, The Connected A “Grand Transformation” ‘Metanoia’ – And the Learning Organisation The Need for Strategic Foresight “To shape the future you must first imagine it.” (Charles Handy)
37. Brainstorm Set the Strategic Question Consider the Crucibles of Change Divergence Horizon Scanning Explore the Built Environment: Driving Forces Questionnaire Survey Identify the Institutional Issues Establish the Key Dimensions of Uncertainty Emergence Strategic Conversations Create Alternative Future Scenarios Agree A Preferred Future Futures Workshops Determine Strategic Policy Fields Convergence Propose An Action Agenda “Have deep roots, a strong trunk, live long by looking long.” (Lao Tzu) Move To Strategic Planning The Strategic Foresight Process
38. Emergence “Jazz” “Lords of Misrule” Divergence Fostering Foresight Convergence Society & Culture Enlightened Leadership “Wise Counsels” Technology & Innovation Synergy with Academe Economics & Finance Alternative Futures Cultivating Collegiality Environment & Ethics Politics & Governance Suffusing Sustainability Preferred Vision Uncertainty & Change The Visioning Progression “If you want to know how a man thinks, imagine the world when they were young” (Napoleon Bonaparte)
39. Stage One: Divergence Divergence Society & Culture Technology & Innovation Economics & Finance Environment & Ethics Politics & Governance Uncertainty & Change “Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go”
40. The Five Crucibles Of Change Financial Markets and a New Economics Global Governance and Social Disparity Planetary Stewardship in an Age of Scarcity Creative Cities with Connected Communities Productivity, Partnership and People “They must often change who would be constant in happiness or wisdom.” (Confucius)
41. 1. Financial Markets And A New Economics Age of sustainable living in a resource constrained world The “Depletion of the West” From an energy to an information economy Restoration of trust Advent of “behavioural economics” “Let a hundred flowers blossom, let a hundred schools of thought contend.” (Mao Tse-Tung)
42. 2. Global Governance And Social Disparity Widening gap between rich and poor Capacity and quality of infrastructure A multi-polar world The illegal economy World’s supply of capital “All human beings are interconnected, one with all other elements in creation.” (Henry Reed)
43. 3. Planetary Stewardship In An Age Of Scarcity Onset of climate change towards global warming Process of urbanisation Energy deficits loom Food system in crisis Water scarcity and water shortages “We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.” (Native American Proverb)
44. 4. Creative Cities With Connected Communities Quality of life Competitiveness through creativity Shared vision and identity Connectivity Leaders and leadership “Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist” (Kenneth Boulding)
45. 5. Productivity, Partnership And People Boosting productivity and promoting innovation Role of the state and market capitalism Public-private partnerships Global companies Localism and strengthening local democracy “For each of our actions there are only consequences.” (James Lovelock)
46. Built Environment: Exploring the Driving Forces of Change Society and Culture Technology and Innovation Economics and Finance Environment and Ethics Politics and Governance “Information is a monster that feeds off itself, while starving us of meaning, knowledge and wisdom.” (T.S. Eliot)
47. Society and Culture Cross disciplinarity, networks and systems Global youth and young talent Migration, diversity and mobility The ‘experience environment’ New players, new sectors and new places and spaces “He who does not trust enough, will not be trusted” (Lao Tzu)
48. Technology and Innovation Convergence, change and connectivity Automation and augmentation Prefabrication, customisation and lean construction Smarter buildings and smarter services Social networks, research and consultancy “Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world” (Arthur Shopenhauer)
49. Economics and Finance Property as a physical and functional asset Attractiveness of second- and third-tier cities Growth of global corporations Movement from quantity to quality New period of unprecedented global development “In a country well governed poverty is something to be ashamed of. In a country badly governed wealth is something to be ashamed of” (Confucius, 5th Century BC)
50. Environment and Ethics Social worth and social responsibility Urbanisation challenge to planners and developers Risk management and competition Green buildings and environmental performance Trust, responsibility and judgement “A little rebellion now and then is a good thing” (Thomas Jefferson)
51. Politics and Governance Transparency and accountability Internationalisation and partnership Property as a ‘people’ business New metrics for a new era Leadership and futuring “It is not the answer that enlightens but the question” (Eugène Ionesco)
52. Stage Two: Emergence Emergence “Jazz” “Lords of Misrule” “Wise Counsels” Alternative Futures "All successful men and women are big dreamers. They imagine what their future could be, ideal in every respect, and then they work every day toward their distant vision, that goal or purpose." (Brian Tracy)
53. Dimensions of Uncertainty Global Sustainability Governance Connectivity Responsibility Leadership Stability Security Institutional Influence Regulation Internationalisation Enrolment Collegiality “Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory, tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat” (Sun Tzu)
54. Scenarios “Jazz” Multi-polarity with dynamic reciprocity “Lords of Misrule” Muddling along from decline to disaster “Wise Counsels” Transformation and the rise to maturity “The way you can go – Isn’t the real way.The name you can say – Isn’t the real name” (Lao Tzu)
55. More Sustainable Resilient Wise Counsels Resilience of Global Ecosystem Jazz Lords of Misrule Vulnerable Less Sustainable NOW Regulation Liberation Human Social Systems Critical Dimensions of Uncertainty “In politics, if you want anything said, ask a man; if you want anything done, ask a woman” (Margaret Thatcher)
56. “Jazz”Multi-Polarity with Dynamic Reciprocity Global village of 2030 – mutual give and take World of cultural change and innovation Transparency a leitmotif of past 30 years Diverse players – new performers Global free market – sound legal systems Government most active at local level Mercantilism prevails – sustainability rudimentary "In a time of drastic change it is the learners who inherit the future. The learned usually find themselves equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." (Eric Hoffer)
57. “Lords of Misrule”Muddling Along From Decline to Disaster Familiar world – but failing Modest economic reforms only Ignorance about complexity of planets problems persist Political stalemates on strategic issues Too many interests – no clear leadership Parochialism – partisanship – protectionism Sustainability equals “First Raise Our Growth” “When there is a great cry that something should be done, you can depend on it that something remarkably silly will be done”
58. “Wise Counsels”Transformation And The Rise To Maturity Age of “new powers and new alliances” Radically different world order materializing New leaders and new social institutions Strengthening of government and governance Millennium Goals met – if a little late New economics emerging – resource based Global communications networks and progress “The future is always present, as a promise, a lure and a temptation” (Karl Popper)
59. Convergence Fostering Foresight Convergence Enlightened Leadership Synergy with Academe Cultivating Collegiality Suffusing Sustainability Preferred Vision “The present system of global cooperation is not working sufficiently. [We need to] look at all issues on the global agenda in a systemic, integrated and strategic way. We have to rethink our values; we are living together in a global society with many different cultures. We have to redesign our processes; how do we deal with the issues and challenges on the global agenda?” (Klaus Schwab)
60. The Built Environment: A Preferred Future Be authentic, and never neglect the basics Plan and commit for sustainability and liveability with respect for the public realm Support the creation and maintenance of infrastructure and property assets as a framework for economic development Embrace diversity and commit to social equity Be bold, imaginative and demonstrate leadership “Tomorrows successful leaders will value principles more than they value their company” (Stephen Covey)
61. Strategic Policy Options Fostering Foresight Enlightened Leadership Core Purpose Synergy with Academe Cultivating Collegiality Suffusing Sustainability “Hell is a place where nothing connects with nothing” (Dante)
120. Concentrate on Pivotal Uncertainties“Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present” (Marcus Aurelius)
130. Remembering Why Futures Practitioners Are There“I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life” (George F. Burns)
131. “Therefore hold to the things which are reliable Look to simplicity; embrace purity Lessen the self: diminish desire” (Tao TeChing)
132. Counter Implementation Games Raising / lowering the level of abstraction Seeking more information / reflection Anti-technique bias – “lets get on with it”! Philosophical, legal, theological viewpoints Saluting the idea, but no commitment Wise owl Flippancy and facetiousness Lie low, rely on inertia Insider knowledge “But we’re still good” “There are those who look at things the way they are and ask why... I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?” (Robert Kennedy)
133. Enlightened Leadership:Providing Global Thought Leadership for the Build Environment and Promoting Authentic and Aware Leadership Qualities Amongst Members "...you better start swimmin' Or you'll sink like a stone. For the times they are a-changin'." (Bob Dylan)
Editor's Notes
The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) is a CEO-led, global association of some 200 companies dealing exclusively with business and sustainable development. – The WBCSD was founded on the eve of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit to involve business in sustainability issues and give it a voice in the forum. The WBCSD was the brainchild of the Swiss industrialist, Stephan Schmidheiny, 29 member companies contributed to a document called Vision 2050The nine elements, or critical areas in which actions need to be taken over the next four decades are values and behaviors, human development, economy, agriculture, forests, energy and power, buildings, mobility and materials. Do more with less; create value; prosper and to advance the human conditionJust 40 years from now, some 30% more people will be living on this planet. Business view – we can sell more stuff! Bad news – shreinking resources and changing climates
As part of these Turbulent Teens, we have identified several “must-haves”, things that need to happen to achieve our vision. These must-haves are specific to each element but they all talk about innovation, policies, financing or a deeper understanding of what is going on.
We have detailed our vision for 2050 in each of the nine elements with a clear measure of success for each of them. For example, for the energy and power element, our vision is that a secure and low carbon energy is widely available and used efficiently. Here, the measure of success is that CO2 emissions will have been halved.