Representing Industrial decarbonization Options in TIMES Belgium model Dr. Partha Das, VITO NV (The Flemish institute for technological research), Belgium.

2. SESAM@VITO-EnergyVille
Energy
system
modelling
15 + 3 PhD
• Techno-economic
model development
• Long term system
scenarios
• Focus on pathways to
net-zero 2050
LCA energy
technology
5 + 2 PhD
• LCA analysis for new
energy technologies
• Integrate LCA with other
sustainability assessment
methods/tools
SESAM
Sustainable
Energy
Systems
Assessment &
Modelling

3. Agenda
• Industrial energy consumption and CO2 emission in Belgium
• Industry representation within TIMES-BE model
• Improved modeling of industrial sector
• Various decarbonizing options
• Indicative results
• Discussion

4. Belgium is an industry hotspot
Source: AidRES project, 2021
Chemical Steel

5. Belgium Industry: Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission

6. Steel
Ammonia
Chlorine
Ethylene Oxide
High Value Chemicals
Other Chemicals
Copper
Zinc
Other Non-Ferrous
Cement
Lime
Glass
Bricks
Food
Pulp & Paper
Others and NEU**
* Chemical, Mechanical and recycled pulp.
* *Non-Energy without chemical non-energy use
Ind. Processes
BF-BOF & EAF
Haber-Bosch & SMR
Electrolysis (membrane)
Ethylene Oxidation
Steam Cracker
General (electricity + heat)
Copper furnace & recycling
Pyrometallurgical process
General Process
Kiln - Grinding
Crushing - calcination
Float, container and recycled
Drying - Firing
General (electricity + heat)
Pulp (Ch, Mc, Rc)* + Paper
General (electricity + heat)
CHP
Electricity and Heat
Biofuels &
Biomass
Power Sector
Biomass, Biodiesel,
Bioethanol and Waste
Refineries
LPG, Diesel, Gasoline,
Kerosene, Fuel Oil,
Naphtha and Others
Imports
Steel
Chemical
Non-ferrous
metals
Non-metallic
minerals
Food
Pulp & Paper
Others
Electricity
Coal, Coke, LPG,
Naphtha, Nat Gas and
Biomass
TIMES-BE model: Industrial sector
representation

7. Improved modeling of Industry Sector in TIMES-BE model
Technological detailing Decarbonization options Flexibility

8. Decarbonization options for Industry
Sector Fuel Substitution Electrification Molecules CCU/S
Iron & Steel BF - H2 Injections
EAF (ELC+Biomas)
MOE
EAF (100% ELC)
H-DRI BF/BOF + CCU/S
NG-DRI + CCU/S
Amine absorption
Ammonia Haber–Bosch (H2) Pyrolysis
SMR+CCUS
High Value Chemicals Electro plastics MTO
MTA
Advanced steam crackers & CCS
Other Chemicals Heat pumps
Electric steam boilers
Electrode Steam boilers
Electric heaters
Hydrogen boilers
Hydrogen heaters
Cement Waste and biomass Plasma heaters H2 substitution of
fuel in Kiln
Amine absorption
CCS-oxy fuel
MEA
Glass Green methane 100% electric
Electric boosting
H2 heaters Amine absorption

9. Decarbonization options for Industry
Sector Fuel Substitution Electrification Molecules CCU/S
Brick Green CH4 Microwave heaters
Microwave-assisted gas
firing (MAGF)
H2 heaters Amine absorption
Lime Waste and biomass Plasma heaters H2 substitution of fuel in Kiln Amine absorption
Other non-metallic
minerals
Electric tunnel kiln H2 -based high temperature
heat
Amine absorption
Copper H2 anode furnace
Zink Biogas burners Electric burners Amine absorption
Other non-ferrous
metals
Biogas burners Electric heaters H2 based heaters Amine absorption
Food Electric boilers
Heat pump
Electric heaters
H2 boilers
Pulp and Paper Electric boilers
Heat pump
Electric heaters

10. Coal, Coke, Nat Gas,
Electricity, Fuel Oil,
Diesel, Ind. Waste
(Sludge), Biomass
Blast Furnace Slag
Hydrogen, Electricity,
Biomass, Waste
Clay,…
Current Cement Production Route
Cement
Grinding
Kiln
Milling
EAF
DRI
Alternative Cement Production Routes
CO2 capture
Hydrogen/Fuel switch
Kiln (Refurbish)
CCU/S
Kiln (BREF)
Milling & Grinding (refurbish)
Milling & Grinding (BREF)
Plasma Torch
Clinker substitutes (Calcinated
Clay)
CO2 Heat
Waste
Example: Cement production routes in TIMES-BE model

11. Coal, Coke, Nat Gas,
Electricity, Coke Oven
Gas, Blast Furnace
Gas, Fuel Oil, Ind.
Waste
Current Steel Production
Finishing Steel
EAF
BOF
BF
Coke Plant
Sinter Plant
Iron Ore, Steel Scrap,
Quick Lime, Alloys, etc
EAF
DRI
Alternative Steel Production
DRI
CO2
capture
Hydrogen
Molten Oxide Electrolysis
Process gas
hydrogen enrichment
EAF
CCU/S
Alkaline Electrolysis
Smelting Reduction
H2 Plasma Smelting Reduction
Hydrogen, Electricity,
Low Carbon Heat
Example: Steel production routes in TIMES-BE model

12. • We run a scenario with CO2 price of 80 €/ton in 2020 and 350 €/ton in 2050
• Industrial CO2 emission is about 2.6 Mt in 2050 compared to 24.6 Mt in 2020
• Decarbonization technologies are being picked up by the model for certain sub-sectors in 2050
• Choice of electricity is seen in sectors like pulp and paper (heat pump), food (heat pump), fiber-glass
(electric boosting), lime (plasma kiln), zinc (electric burners), other chemical (CHP)
• Hydrogen based heating for bricks, hollow glass, and lime sector
• Substantial amount of CO2 capture, mainly to capture process related CO2 emissions. Total CO2
capture in 2050 is 12.56 Mt
• Chemical, cement and lime contributes to most of the captured CO2
Initial observations from the model run

13. Developing Input data related to improved industry sector
modeling
• Many industrial decarbonization technologies have low technological readiness level (TRL)
• Compiling realistic data e.g., costs, life, efficiency, start-year for these technologies are challenging
• Converting an aggregated process into sub-processes needs realistic input data (e.g., input to output
ratio for material and energy consumption, emission factors, other attributes)
• We rely on industry and consultancy reports, research articles and stakeholder consultations
• We closely work with industry partners in Belgium in multiple projects to develop these technological
assumption

14. Lessons learned from improved modeling of industry
• Technological improvements of low TRL technologies should be regularly tracked for updates of data
• Model outputs should be examined for sensitivities of low TRL technology parameters
• Modeling intermediate processes allows decarbonizing a certain sub-process
• It allows effective tracking of process and combustion related emission
• It also allows flexibility to be linked to a specific intermediate process
• Modeling final commodity demands allows validating realistic commodity prices from model output
• Modeling of flexibility for industrial processes impacts largely on model run-time

15. • Further validation and refinement of data for low TRL decarbonization options (On
going)
• Prioritize certain industrial processes to be modeled as flexible (On going)
• Parametric runs for various CO2 prices and Net Zero GHG emission scenario (End of
the year)
Future Work

16. Thank You
partha.das@vito.be
juan.correalaguna@vito.be