Detail representation of molecule flows and chemical sector in TIMES-BE: progress and challenges Mr. Juan Correa, VITO, Belgium 16–17th november 2023, Turin, Italy, etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, semi-annual meeting, november 2023, Politecnico di Torino Lingotto, Torino

2. Agenda
• Model Background
• Progress so far
• H2 in the model (supply and use)
• Derived molecules (supply and use)
• Base molecules and their use (alternatives)
• CCUS
• Industrial symbiosis
• Downstream processes (challenges and approaches/solutions)
• De-fossilization vs decarbonization
• Results, insights and lessons learnt
• Future work

3. • Modelling horizon: 2014 – 2050
• Time-slices: 120 (10 days & 12 periods)
• Climate targets: Net Zero constraint by 2050. CO2 price by 2050 at
€350/tCO2.
• Demands: service demands (i.e., pkm, space heat, ) and product output (i.e.,
ammonia, steel, cement, olefins).
Detailed description in
(https://perspective2050.energyville.be/paths2050)
TIMES-BE
Background

4. TIMES-BE molecules
The molecules catalogue
H2 NH3 MOH eCH4
Syn
Fuel
Industry
Steelmaking
Fertilizers
Olefins (Plastics)
Mid-High Heat
Copper
Refineries
Chemicals
Electricity
Power Gen
Storage (PtGtP)
Transport
HDVs
Aviation
Maritime
MDVs
Buildings
Space heating
CHP (Fuel cell)
C
Source: VITO/EnergyVille.

5. Industrial symbiosis
Material exchange is, and will be, important
• Industrial interaction goes beyond energy exchange, as is the case of waste
to be burnt.
• Some industrial symbiosis is possible, such as steel sag being used in cement
production.
• However, there are more material exchanges happening among industries
that are not thoroughly mapped. (i.e., tar as feedstock, ashes as materials,
CO2 use in the food sector)
• New materials interactions include CO2, as CCU becomes interesting and
economically attractive under certain conditions.

6. Why?
Downstream processes
The chemical sector case: circularity and alternatives
Today Tomorrow
Source: AIDRES Project
One of the
largest
petrochemical
clusters in EU

7. CCUS
Generic parameters don’t represent reality
• Sector-specific CO2 commodities.
• Biogenic CO2 emissions are included.
• CAPEX, capture efficiency and energy
consumption based on sector-specific
emissions (flue gases) characteristics.
• Units can be installed independently of
other processes (i.e., power plants,
furnaces, kilns).
• CO2 pipeline and export terminal
(CAPEX, energy use).
• Correlation curves to derive specific
techno-economic parameters.
Source: Wilcox, J., Carbon Capture 2012: Springer.
Work
requirement is
exponential

8. De-fossilization vs Decarbonization
Carbon is, also, a valuable molecule
Chemical
Feedstock
• Plastics.
• Solvents.
Other uses
• Greenhouses.
• Food packaging.
• Beverages.
• Synthetic fuels.
Circularity
• Carbon in waste.
• Close loops.
Material
• Concrete.
• Carbonates
• Tarmac.

9. Results

10. Preliminary Results
Molecules (H2) demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
SCN1
SCN2
SCN3
Molecules will might be cheaper
Hydrogen supply, TWh
59
23
6
6
2020
2030
2040
2050
SMR
Electrolyzer
Imports
Hydrogen cost for demand sectors
€/MWh
Hydrogen and derivatives account for
11% of final energy demand by 2050
Electricity
56%
Fossil feedstock
31%
Molecules
8%
eFuel
3%
Biomass
1%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SCN
SCN1
SCN2
SCN3
SCN1
SCN2
SCN3
SCN1
SCN2
SCN3
2020 2030 2040 2050
Transport
Heat
Chemical
Cement
No ferrous
Steel
Power
Hydrogen Demand, TWh
Molecule demand will vary depending
on the context (assumptions)
Simultaneously
Molecules for
power
generation

11. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
€/tCO2
TIMES-BE perceived capture cost
and storage by industry
CO2 price
ammonia
bricks
chemical other
cement
copper
ethylen oxide
glass
HVC
Preliminary Results
CO2 captured cost and volumes differ by sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Steel
(primary)
Steel
(secondary)
Ammonia
Ammonia
(2)
Ethylene
Oxide
HVC
Other
chemical
Zinc
Copper
Aluminum
NFM
other
Cement
Lime
Bricks
Glass
Other
Industries
Refinery
Power
DAC
DAC
large
€/tCO2
Simulated CO2 capture cost by
industry (correlations methodology)
Varom
Fixom
Capex
0
5
10
15
20
25
2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MtCO2
TIMES-BE Captured CO2 by sector
ammonia bricks cement ethylen oxide
glass HVC steel lime
refineries power

12. Conclusions (by now)
Lessons learnt
• Scarce data on industrial material flows (we are improving our database for
Belgium).
• Production capacities and rates are difficult to find for some industrial sectors.
• Without defining limits, hydrogen imports can dominate the molecule market.
• Molecule seasonal storage is not used as imports from RoW are “unlimited”.
• How to tackle the “de-industrialization” dilemma of importing semi-finished
products (e.g. ammonia, sponge iron, methanol, ethylene, etc.).
• Chemical components and base-molecules require special attention to mass
balances and energy requirements, for example, syngas.

13. Future work
Models are always evolving and improving
• Modell downstream chemical production first and second tier.
• Improve refineries model to desegregate H2 consumption, diluted and
concentrated CO2 streams.-> in line with sector plans.
• Include technologies for the chemical sector beyond H2 and CO2, such as
aromatic production from biomass (easier to produce aromatics from
sugars/glucose).
• Validate the link with transport sector demand for synthetic, no-emissions
fuels in the transport sector.