James Thurlow Policy Seminar Advancing Research (and Policy) on Nutrition and Agriculture Feb 22, 2018 - 12:15 pm to 01:45 pm EST

1. Poverty vs. Nutrition?
Measuring (Modeling) Policy Trade-offs
James Thurlow (IFPRI)
22 February 2018
BMGF Projects “Advancing Research on Nutrition and Agriculture” and “Prioritizing Policies for Driving Inclusive
Agricultural Transformation”

2. Prioritizing Products
Vegetables
Maize
Fishing
Rural poverty
(poverty effect)
Dietary diversity
of the rural poor
(nutrition effect)
Agri-Food
System GDP
(growth effect)
Coffee*
Milk*
Potatoes
Cassava
Pulses
Sorghum
Poultry, eggs*
Wheat, barley
Rice
Cattle*
Forestry
* indicates positive
employment effect
Cotton*
Oilseeds*
Nuts*
Fruit

3. Prioritizing Policies
Fuel tax
reduction*
Crop extension
services*
Rural poverty
(poverty effect)
Non-cereal
input
subsidies*
Exchange rate
devalution*
Cereal input
subsidies
Livestock
veterinary
services
* indicates positive
employment effect
Irrigation
infrastructure
Agri-Food
System GDP
(growth effect)
Dietary diversity
of the rural poor
(nutrition effect)

4. ARENA: Extending IFPRI’s Models
Better Capture of Food Systems & Diets
(product groups in IFPRI’s “Nexus” country models)
Extended
Next in line
Food services
Meat
Fish
Dairy
Fats & oils
Fruits & vegetables
Leafy green vegetables
Raw milk
Eggs
15 18
24
353
5
9
18
16
22
28
33
1990s 2000s 2010-15 Today
Agriculture
Processed foods
Other

5. ARENA: Measuring Dietary Improvements
20
30
40
20
30
3020
30
30
40
60 40
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Before policy After policy Target diet
Percapitaconsumptionvalue($)
Animal-sourced foods Fruits, vegetables
Pulses, oilseeds Cereals,roots
Household Food Basket (Diet)
Exceeds
“income”
target
Falls
short of
diversity
target
Traditional approach
Least-cost nutrition-
adequate diet,
irrespective of
preferences
New approach
Satisfy households’
nutritional needs, but
preserve their
revealed preferences
& characteristics
How to Define
Target Diet?