28 July 2021. Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change and Nutrition in Malawi, Ethiopia and Nigeria • UNFSS 2021 Pre-Summit Affiliated Session • This session explained how we can influence consumption patterns through policy interventions that will lead to better environmental and nutritional outcomes in three countries—Malawi, Ethiopia, and Nigeria. • Included as speaker: Willem Olthof, Deputy Head of Unit, DEVCO C1 - Rural Development, Food Security, Nutrition, European Commission

1. Towards the 2021 UN Food
Systems Summit
Deep Dives into the Nexus of
Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets
in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria
July 29, 2021

2. 2
The Project
• Ceres2030 as the foundation + healthier diets & climate adaptation in
three countries: Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria
• Key Q: How can we influence consumption patterns through policy
interventions that will lead to better environmental and nutritional
outcomes?
• Key research tools: modelling, analysis of household food demand
behavior, consultations
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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The Big Picture
• The problems of the food system today
• Demand will exacerbate the problems by 2030
• Global public goods: carbon stocks and biodiversity in
Global South
• Need food systems to deliver on hunger, healthy diets &
poverty, while safeguarding global public goods
• Need resources and therefore global solidarity
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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The Importance of the nexus
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria
• To envision food system transformation to improve diets in the context of
climate change brought together in a nexus.
• The nexus approach aims to identify interventions and related costs to
deliver multiple benefits that result from an integrated diets-
agriculture-climate approach.
• The value of putting healthier diets at the core of this nexus study is that
it gives an opportunity to also highlight how diets impact all forms of
malnutrition and discuss the contributions of agricultural interventions to
not only focus on production, but also consumption patterns.

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The Problem in 2030
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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TOWARDS HEALTHIER DIETS
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Nutrition problems today
• Hunger & food insecurity are prevalent in all three target countries
• Undernourishment rates: 18% (Ethiopia) 19% (Malawi) 13% (Nigeria)
• A pressing problem, but a lack of clear policies for nutrition
• Only Nigeria currently has any national dietary guidelines
• Ethiopia & Malawi currently under development
• The 'missing middle' - nutrition caught between agriculture policies for producers &
health interventions targeting individuals
• Poverty reduction is necessary, but gains can be maximized with policies to better inform
citizens' preferences
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Towards health-ier diets
Why not target one 'healthy diet’?
• Existing measures such as EAT-Lancet are not realistically available or affordable for much
(all?) of our target populations
• We want to observe outcomes across each country's distribution, not focus on those close to
achieving a single outcome
• Consumers have diverse preferences
• Cultural and religious practices
• Information gaps & lack of familiarity with nutritive foods
• There is not "one palate"
Key indicators of progress
• Share consuming sufficient calories overall
• Share consuming fruit, vegetables, legumes, nuts & whole grains
• Total quantity of fruit & vegetables consumed
• Share of energy intake from fats
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Where are we now? (share in daily consumption)
• Diets are dominated by
cereals, grains & starches
• Vegetables account for 6-
8% of total caloric intake in
Malawi & Nigeria, 14% in
Ethiopia
• Share of energy from fruit
is uniformly low & highly
seasonal
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Where are we now? Ethiopia
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Where are we now? Malawi
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Where are we now? Nigeria
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Heterogeneity – Wealth quintile (Ethiopia)
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Heterogeneity – Urban / rural (Malawi)
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Heterogeneity – North / South (Nigeria)
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION & ADAPTATION
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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GHG emissions in agriculture - per capita, 2018 & 2030
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Malawi, Ethiopia and Nigeria

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Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria
GHG emissions in agriculture - total, 2018 & 2030

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Climate change impacts
• Temp rises since 1960: 1oC Malawi, 1.3oC
Ethiopia and 1oC Nigeria.
• Maize yield could decrease by 14-25% by 2050.
• Heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture
• Climate variability and climate change are already
affecting livelihoods
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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The Consultations Process
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria
Round 1
• Understanding donor-funded projects and interventions that address the
nexus
• Surveys, interviews and desk review
Round 2
• Understand how country’s define healthy diets
• Possible interventions to achieve healthier diets and sustainable food
system transformation
➢ Consultations have generated interest in the research
➢ Participants expressed desire for results to feed into national processes
➢ Malawi Food-Based Dietary Guidelines development
➢ Nigeria redrafting of Agriculture Promotion Policy

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Round 2 Consultations
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria
• Organized in partnership with the Ministry of Health Department of Nutrition, HIV
and AIDS, Akademiya2030 and the IFPRI in-country offices
• 26 participants
• Hybrid meeting
Malawi
• Organized in partnership with IFPRI in-country offices and Akademiya2063
• 44 participants
• Virtual meeting
Ethiopia
• Organized in partnership with the Senior Special Assistant to the President on
Agriculture, Office of the Vice President of Nigeria
• 20 participants
• Virtual meeting
Nigeria

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Overview of areas raised in the consultations
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria
Malawi Ethiopia Nigeria
Multisector Approach/Coherence • • •
Supply-side interventions • • •
Nutrition education • • •
School Feeding Programs • • •
Cultural and seasonal sensitivity • • •
Further policy frameworks • •
Social protection • •
Rural development • •
Regional sensitivity • •
Access to finance • •
Biofortification • •
Market development / integration •

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Key takeaways from each consultation
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria
Malawi
• Increase affordability and
accessibility of nutritious
foods (supply-side
interventions and
biofortification)
• Nutrition education,
frontline workers and
school feeding programs
• Lack of implementation of
existing policies and
interventions
• Multi-sector approach
Ethiopia
• Need a package of
interventions and
multisector approach
• Nutrition education,
frontline workers and
school feeding programs
• Regional and cultural
variations
• Market development and
integration
• Supply-side interventions
Nigeria
• Diversity of issues (e.g.
urban/rural and
North/South). Cannot
ignore caloric intake and
solely focus on healthy
diets
• Increase quantity of
available food (social
protection, agricultural
research, funding of SMEs)
• Nutrition education and
institutional buying systems

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OPPORTUNITIES
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Opportunity: Sustainable intensification
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Malawi, Ethiopia and Nigeria

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Opportunity: Reducing food loss & waste
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Malawi, Ethiopia and Nigeria
Click to add text

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ESTABLISHING A HEALTHER DIETS TARGET
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria
Food consumption per capital 2017,
by grams

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Food consumption per capita 2017, by
share of grams
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Establishing a healthier diets target in the
model (food in grams)
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Establishing a healthier diets target in the model
(protein in grams)
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Establishing a healthier diets target in the
model (calories)
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Targets: what does the model try to
achieve?
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria
SDG
2.1
SDG
2.3
SDG
2.4
As done in Ceres2030

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MODELLING RESULTS
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria
Ceres2030 Category Interventions in the Model
EMPOWER THE EXCLUDED
1. Social protection (Food subsidy)
2. Vocational training
3. Nutrition Education
4. School Feeding Programs
ON THE FARM
5. Investment subsidy
6. Fertilizer subsidy
7. Production subsidy
8. Capital endowment
9. R&D
10. Extension Services
11. Rural infrastructure (Irrigation)
12. Livestock subsidy – agroforestry
13. Livestock subsidy – improved forage
FOOD ON THE MOVE
14. Storage-Post Harvest losses
15. Rural Infrastructure (roads)
?

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Additional public investment needed (total)
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Additional external resources needed (total)
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Limitations
• Data availability & reliability
• Diets rather than more comprehensively at
nutrition
• Seasonality not as well captured
• Extreme unpredictable weather events not
captured
• Gender equality
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

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Next Steps
• AUG – SEPT: Capturing the heterogeneity of
diets in each country in the model
• AUG – SEPT: Third round consultations to get
feedback on the results (virtual)
• SEPT: Parallel event at the UNFSS with synthesis
policy brief published
• OCT – DEC: Final versions of all reports
Deep Dives into the Nexus of Food Systems, Climate Change & Diets in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria

40. Thank you