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Mohammed Abdul Moiz Feroze
B.E, PMP, CCP
Consultant Planning- Depots & Stations
Hyderabad Metro Rail Project
Advantages of Planning:.
1) A thorough plan contains multiple solutions
2) Maintaining an ongoing "to-do" list for your business
3) Each item you complete represents a success for you and your business
4) Use the information to make a more realistic estimate for that type of
project in the future.
5) All members have the same guideline to follow when working so they are
all on the same page
6) Better utilization of Resources
Influencing the future by making decisions based on missions, needs and
objectives - Planning
Advantages of Scheduling:
1)Level of Information
2) Delay Analysis
3) Earned Value Analysis
4) SPI
5) CPI
6) BAC & ETC
Establish Start and finish dates – Activity, Phase, and Project- Scheduling
Monitor & Control
Project Phases:
1) Initiation
2) Planning
3) Execution
4) Monitor & Control
5) Closeout
Initiation Planning Execution Closeout
KNOWLEDGE AREA Initiation Planning Execution Monitor &
Control
Closeout
PROJECT INITIATION PROJECT
CHARTER
PROJ.MGMT
PLAN
MANAGE MONITOR &
CHANGE
CNTRL
CLSOE
PROJECT
PROJECT SCOPE REQT.
SCOPE, WBS
CONTROL
SCOPE
PROJECT TIME SCHEDULE CONTROL
SCHEDULE
PROJECT COST COST
BUDGET
CONTROL
COST
PROJECT QUALITY PLAN
QUALITY
PERFORM
ASSURANCE
QUALITY
CONTROL
PROJECT HUMAN RESOURCE HR PLAN TEAM
BUILDING
PROJECT COMMUNICATION STAKE
HOLDERS
PLAN
COMMN
DISTRIBUTE
INFORMATI
ON
REPORT
PERFORMAN
CE
PROJECT RISK PLAN RISK MONITOR
RISK
PROJECT PROCUREMENT PLAN PROC CONDUT
PROCUREMT
MONOTOR
PROCUREMT
CLOSE
PROCRMNT
ENTERPRISE / ORGANIZATION
PORTFOLIO 1 PORTFOLIO 2
PROGRAM 1 PROGRAM 2 PROGRAM 1 PROGRAM 2
PROJECT
1
PROJECT
2
PROJECT
3
PROJECT
4
Typical Enterprise Breakdown Structure
A . M . NAIK
SNS
M. V SATISH
CSL
Organization Breakdown Structure
CSL
V. MOORTHY RBK
HSPS
SHUKLA
CS CS Anand
JASON
A.
KHAN SANJEEV PRABHAKAR
Resource Breakdown Structure
NAVYATA RAJA
Work Breakdown Structure: Decomposition of work into more manageable parts.
Triple Constraints:
1) Scope
1) Time
2) Cost
Scope Time Cost∞ ∞
Scope is the process of developing a detailed description of the project and
product. (Two Methods of Decomposition).
We Cannot deliver our project, if we do not know what is to be delivered (Scope), by what time and what
cost.
MIYAPUR DEPOT
BUILDINGS EXTERNAL WORKS
GUARD
HOUSE
ANNEX
EARTH
WORKS
SUB-SRFACE
ENGG PROC. CONS T&C
Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
GFC DWG-10
GFC DWG-
MEP- 5
GFC DWG
ARCH - 5
CIVIL 5000
MEP 5000
BMS 1
CHILLER 4
PUMPS 5
EXCV 2000
FOUND 40
COLUMN 40
SLAB 1500
BLOCK 1600
PLSTR 3200
PAINT 3200
DOORS 20
WINDOW 12
LIGHT 60
CHILLER 4
PUMPS 5
BMS 1
PUMPS 5
CHILLER 4
BMS 1
Work
package
Method of Planning:
Software's : Primavera, MSP, TILOS, EXCEL, Power Point Presentation
Tools:
Earned value Management, Forecasting, To-complete
performance index (TCPI), Performance reviews, Reserve analysis
Skills: Business Acumen, Communication, Leadership, Problem Solving
Scope Planning:
Inputs Required:
Work Statement
Contract
Project Charter
Stake Holder Requirements
Output Developed:
WBS
Work Package
Activities Schedule, Cost, Quality, HR, Communicate, Risk,
Procure, Sub-Contract, Rolling Wave Planning,
Engineering: Basic 3 types of engineering
1) Pure Research Engineering
2) Applied Research Engineering
3) Copyright Engineering
Material: Basic 4 types of Material:
1)Raw Material: Minimum amount of Processing required before use
2) Bulk Material: Also called Shelf material – ready to use
3) Fabricated Material: Bulk materials modified as per requirement
4) Engineered material: Designed material with substantial amount of
engineering required.
LABOR (MEN & MACHINES)
DIRECT INDIRECT
FIXED
VARIABLE
(80%)
FIXED VARIABLE
PRIMAVERA: LABOUR, NON-LABOUR, MATERIAL
MSP: WORK, MATERIAL, COST
OTHERS: SKILLED, SEMI SKILLED, UN-SKILLED
Construction Work Flow: Activity Based Costing
Division 01 — General Requirements
Division 02 — Site Construction
Division 03 — Concrete
Division 04 — Masonry
Division 05 — Metals
Division 06 — Wood and Plastics
Division 07 — Thermal and Moisture Protection
Division 08 — Doors and Windows
Division 09 — Finishes
Division 10 — Specialties
Division 11 — Equipment
Division 12 — Furnishings
Division 13 — Special Construction
Division 14 — Conveying Systems
Division 15 — Mechanical
Division 16 — Electrical
These are used for BOQ preparation & Accounting People:
Sno. Description Unit Qty cost Amount
HM-DP-01-01-00 General Requirements Lot 1 6,30,000 6,30,000.00
HM-DP-01-02-00 Site Construction Lot 1 5,70,000 5,70,000.00
HM-DP-01-03-00 Concrete Lot 1 3,50,00,000 3,50,00,000.00
HM-DP-01-04-00 Masonry Lot 1 2,30,000 2,30,000.00
HM-DP-01-08-00 Doors and Windows Lot 1 2,80,000 2,80,000.00
HM-DP-01-09-00 Finishes Lot 1 33,00,000 33,00,000.00
HM-DP-01-15-00 Mechanical Lot 1 26,00,000 26,00,000.00
HM-DP-01-16-00 Electrical Lot 1 33,00,000 33,00,000.00
TOTAL 4,59,10,000.00
Typical BOQ Preparation:
HM-DP-01-09-00 Finishes LOT Qty Cost 33,00,000.00
HM-DP-01-09-01
Matt Finished Vitrified Tiles
(598mm x 598mmx 9mm SQM 6500 360 23,40,000.00
HM-DP-01-09-02
Matt Finished Vitrified Tiles
for Concourse Level Toilet
(Male, Female & Physically
Handicapped) SQM 700 600 4,20,000.00
HM-DP-01-09-03 Vitrified Tiles for Dado SQM 750 700 5,25,000.00
HM-DP-01-09-04 Vitrified Tiles SQM 30 500 5,000.00
Typical Finishes BOQ Items:
Estimation: Prediction made before start of any activity or Project.
Forecast: Prediction made after the start of any activity or Project.
Estimating Techniques 6 Types:
Expert Judgment: Expert judgment, guided by historical information, provides
valuable insight about the environment and information from prior similar projects.
Analogous Estimating: Analogous cost estimating uses the values such as scope, cost,
budget, and duration or measures of scale such as size, weight, and complexity from a
previous, similar project as the basis for estimating the same parameter or
measurement for a current project. When estimating costs, this technique relies on the
actual cost of previous, similar projects as the basis for estimating the cost of the
current project.
Parametric Estimating: Parametric estimating uses a statistical relationship between
relevant historical data and other variables (e.g., square footage in construction) to
calculate a cost estimate for project work. This technique can produce higher levels of
accuracy depending upon the sophistication and underlying data built into the model.
Bottom-Up Estimating: Bottom-up estimating is a method of estimating a component of work.
The cost of individual work packages or activities is estimated to the greatest level of specified
detail. The detailed cost is then summarized or “rolled up” to higher levels for subsequent
reporting and tracking purposes. The cost and accuracy of bottom-up cost estimating are typically
influenced by the size and complexity of the individual activity or work package.
Three-Point Estimating:
The accuracy of single-point activity cost estimates may be improved by considering estimation
uncertainty and risk and using three estimates to define an approximate range for an activity’s
cost:
• Most likely (cM). The cost of the activity, based on realistic effort assessment for the required
work and any predicted expenses.
• Optimistic (cO). The activity cost based on analysis of the best-case scenario for the activity.
• Pessimistic (cP). The activity cost based on analysis of the worst-case scenario for the activity
Depending on the assumed distribution:
Triangular Distribution. cE = (cO + cM + cP) / 3
Beta Distribution (from a traditional PERT analysis). cE = (cO + 4cM + cP) / 6 (Standard
Deviation)
Reserve Analysis: The contingency reserve may be a percentage of the estimated cost, a fixed
number, or may be developed by using quantitative analysis methods.
PLANNING FOR SUCCESS IS NO SMALL ENDEAVOR.
WHEN DONE WELL, HOWEVER, IT WILL REAP MANY
LARGE REWARDS.
End of Planning
Part II - Scheduling
ID DESCRIPTION GANTT CHART / BAR CHART
TYPICAL PRIMAVERA BAR CHART
Item 01-Jan-1408-Jan-14 15-Jan-14 22-Jan-1429-Jan-14 05-Feb-14 12-Feb-14 19-Feb-14 26-Feb-1405-Mar-14 12-Mar-14 19-Mar-1426-Mar-1402-Apr-1409-Apr-14
Excavation
PCC
Form Work
Rebar
Concrete
Dismantle FM
Wall Planning by Henry Gantt:
Flow of Work: Water Fall Method
The waterfall model is a sequential process, in which progress is seen as
flowing steadily downwards (like a waterfall) through the phases of
Conception, Initiation, Analysis, Design, Construction, Testing,
Production/Implementation and Maintenance.
Network Diagram: Activity on Node and Activity on Arrow:
CPM, PERT & CCM:
CPM: The Shortest Duration to complete a project in a Networking Path. The critical
path is the path where the float is zero. Developed by Dupont and Remington Rand in
the 1950’s to manage plant maintenance projects
PERT: Progress Evaluation Review Technique: 3 Point Analysis Estimation (Triangular
Distribution). Developed by Frederick Taylor and Henry Ford in the 1950’s to manage Polaris
Submarine System.
CCM: Critical Chain Method proposed by Eliyahu Goldratt in his book Goal.
Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM): With advancement of PERT &
CPM the network logic diagramming was developed.
a 10
ES EF
LS LF
b 22
ES EF
LS LF
c 6
ES EF
LS LF
e 25
ES EF
LS LF
d 8
ES EF
LS LF
f 25
ES EF
LS LF
g 12
ES EF
LS LF
h 14
ES EF
LS LF
i 16
ES EF
LS LF
j 6
ES EF
LS LF
k 7
ES EF
LS LF
L 10
ES EF
LS LF
m 5
ES EF
LS LF
a 10
1 10
LS LF
b 22
11 32
LS LF
c 6
33 38
LS LF
e 25
11 35
LS LF
d 8
39 46
LS LF
f 25
36 60
LS LF
g 12
61 72
LS LF
h 14
73 86
LS LF
i 16
11 27
LS LF
j 6
28 33
LS LF
k 7
34 40
LS LF
L 10
41 50
LS LF
m 5
47
51
86
52
55
91
LS LFForward Pass
A+b+c+d+m a+e+f+g+h+m a+i+j+k+l+m
a 10
1 10
1 10
b 22
11 32
51 72
c 6
33 38
73 78
e 25
11 35
11 35
d 8
39 46
79 86
f 25
36 60
36 60
g 12
61 72
61 72
h 14
73 86
73 86
i 16
11 27
47 63
j 6
28 33
64 69
k 7
34 40
70 76
L 10
41 50
77 86
m 5
87 91
LS LFBackward Pass
m+d+c+b+a m+h+g+f+e+a m+l+k+j+i+a
Scheduling in 5 steps:
1) Identify Activities
2) Establish Relationships
3) Identify Resources
4) Establish Duration
5) Schedule
Identify Activities comes from Work Package
Relationships : FS, SS, FF, SF along with Lags & Leads
Resources Comes from Enterprise
Establish Duration from Productivity Norms
Schedule : F9
Activity Qty. Unit Crew Productivity Duration Mandays Manhours @ 10 hrs per day Unit Rate hr/cum
Excavation 10000 CUM 10 500 20 200 2000 0.2
8 Labor qty/prod crew x 1600 lab
2 Machine duration 400 machine
Level 1 Schedule Executive Summary, also called a Project Master Schedule
(PMS).
Level 2 Schedule Management Summary, also called a Summary Master
Schedule (SMS).
Level 3 Schedule Project Coordination Schedule (PCS) also called a
Publication Schedule.
Level 4 Schedule Execution Schedule, also called a Project Working Level
Schedule.
Level 5 Schedule Detail Schedule. The further breakdown of the activities of a
Level 4 Schedule.
Level of Schedule:
Delay Analysis:
There are five type of delay Analysis:
Earned Value Analysis: Budgeted Cost Work Performed by total Work
Once we have made our progress assessment, Earn value analysis tool will automatically
calculate our Earned Value (% complete x Budget for each activity). Various KPI’s (Key
Performance Index) can be calculated such as:
Cost Variance (CV) – The numerical difference between the earned value (BCWP) and
the actual cost (ACWP). CV = BCWP – ACWP.
Schedule Variance (SV) - An indicator of how much a program is ahead of or behind
schedule. SV = BCWP – BCWS. (Earned value – planned budget, or the difference
between the value of work accomplished for a given period and the value of the work
planned). Schedule variance is presented well in chart format.
Cost Performance Index (CPI) – The cost efficiency factor representing the
relationship between the actual cost expended and the earned value. CPI =
BCWP/ACWP. A CPI ≥ 1 suggests a relatively efficient cost factor, while a CPI <1 may be
cause for concern.
Schedule Performance Index (SPI) – The planned schedule efficiency factor
representing the relationship between the earned value and the initial planned
schedule. SPI = BCWP/BCWS. A SPI ≥ 1 is good. SPI < 1 suggests actual work is falling
behind the planned schedule.
Budget at Completion (BAC) – Original completion budget for project
Estimate to complete (ETC) – A calculated value, in dollars or hours that
represents the cost of work required to complete remaining project
tasks. ETC = BAC – BCWP.
Estimate at Complete (EAC) – A calculated value, in dollars or hours, that
represents the projected total final costs of work when completed. EAC =
ACWP + ETC.
It is usual to review the progress report at a monthly meeting to decide
where action needs to be taken. EVA will tell you where you have a
problem, and what you need to do to finish the job on time, providing all
stakeholders with a visibility of progress vs plan.
Progress Measurement: There are 6 Types of Progress measurement:
Units Method
Supervisory Method
Start – Finish Method
Cost Factor Method
Incremental Method
Weight Factor Method
Establishing Weights:
Contribution Factor Method
Description of Sub-System Cost in Crs
Duration -
Total No of
Weeks
Level of Effort
(Scale of 5)
Criticality
(Scale of 5)
Risk factor
(Scale of 5) Percentage Round Figure
ENGINEERING 12.00 30.00 3.00 3.00 5.00 9.16% 9.00%
PROCUREMENT 60.00 40.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 25.10% 25.00%
CONSTRUCTION 159.00 80.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 55.74% 56.00%
TESTING & COMM. 15.00 12.00 5.00 5.00 3.00 10.01% 10.00%
Total 246.00 162.00 18.00 18.00 18.00
Weitage Factor 70% 10% 5% 10% 5% 100.00% 100.00%
Cost 70%
Duration 10%
Manhours (LOE) 5%
Criticality 10%
Risk Factor 5%
LEVEL 1
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
CASTING Vs ERECTION - PLAN Vs ACTUAL- Month WisePlan Progress
(Casting)
Actual Progress
(Casting)
Casting Progress
(Cum)
Casting Actual
(Cum)
Erection Progress
(Cum)
GENERAL, -2.48%
ENGINEERING
, -0.95%
PROCUREMENT, -
13.17%
CONSTRUCTION,
-19.23%
T&C, -1.47%
Overall Variance Analysis
END OF SCHEDULING
S-Curve
Histograms
Resource
Dash Board
KPI

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Planning & Scheduling - Training

  • 1. Mohammed Abdul Moiz Feroze B.E, PMP, CCP Consultant Planning- Depots & Stations Hyderabad Metro Rail Project
  • 2. Advantages of Planning:. 1) A thorough plan contains multiple solutions 2) Maintaining an ongoing "to-do" list for your business 3) Each item you complete represents a success for you and your business 4) Use the information to make a more realistic estimate for that type of project in the future. 5) All members have the same guideline to follow when working so they are all on the same page 6) Better utilization of Resources Influencing the future by making decisions based on missions, needs and objectives - Planning
  • 3. Advantages of Scheduling: 1)Level of Information 2) Delay Analysis 3) Earned Value Analysis 4) SPI 5) CPI 6) BAC & ETC Establish Start and finish dates – Activity, Phase, and Project- Scheduling
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Monitor & Control Project Phases: 1) Initiation 2) Planning 3) Execution 4) Monitor & Control 5) Closeout Initiation Planning Execution Closeout
  • 7. KNOWLEDGE AREA Initiation Planning Execution Monitor & Control Closeout PROJECT INITIATION PROJECT CHARTER PROJ.MGMT PLAN MANAGE MONITOR & CHANGE CNTRL CLSOE PROJECT PROJECT SCOPE REQT. SCOPE, WBS CONTROL SCOPE PROJECT TIME SCHEDULE CONTROL SCHEDULE PROJECT COST COST BUDGET CONTROL COST PROJECT QUALITY PLAN QUALITY PERFORM ASSURANCE QUALITY CONTROL PROJECT HUMAN RESOURCE HR PLAN TEAM BUILDING PROJECT COMMUNICATION STAKE HOLDERS PLAN COMMN DISTRIBUTE INFORMATI ON REPORT PERFORMAN CE PROJECT RISK PLAN RISK MONITOR RISK PROJECT PROCUREMENT PLAN PROC CONDUT PROCUREMT MONOTOR PROCUREMT CLOSE PROCRMNT
  • 8. ENTERPRISE / ORGANIZATION PORTFOLIO 1 PORTFOLIO 2 PROGRAM 1 PROGRAM 2 PROGRAM 1 PROGRAM 2 PROJECT 1 PROJECT 2 PROJECT 3 PROJECT 4 Typical Enterprise Breakdown Structure
  • 9. A . M . NAIK SNS M. V SATISH CSL Organization Breakdown Structure
  • 10. CSL V. MOORTHY RBK HSPS SHUKLA CS CS Anand JASON A. KHAN SANJEEV PRABHAKAR Resource Breakdown Structure NAVYATA RAJA
  • 11. Work Breakdown Structure: Decomposition of work into more manageable parts. Triple Constraints: 1) Scope 1) Time 2) Cost Scope Time Cost∞ ∞ Scope is the process of developing a detailed description of the project and product. (Two Methods of Decomposition). We Cannot deliver our project, if we do not know what is to be delivered (Scope), by what time and what cost.
  • 12. MIYAPUR DEPOT BUILDINGS EXTERNAL WORKS GUARD HOUSE ANNEX EARTH WORKS SUB-SRFACE ENGG PROC. CONS T&C Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) GFC DWG-10 GFC DWG- MEP- 5 GFC DWG ARCH - 5 CIVIL 5000 MEP 5000 BMS 1 CHILLER 4 PUMPS 5 EXCV 2000 FOUND 40 COLUMN 40 SLAB 1500 BLOCK 1600 PLSTR 3200 PAINT 3200 DOORS 20 WINDOW 12 LIGHT 60 CHILLER 4 PUMPS 5 BMS 1 PUMPS 5 CHILLER 4 BMS 1 Work package
  • 13. Method of Planning: Software's : Primavera, MSP, TILOS, EXCEL, Power Point Presentation Tools: Earned value Management, Forecasting, To-complete performance index (TCPI), Performance reviews, Reserve analysis Skills: Business Acumen, Communication, Leadership, Problem Solving
  • 14. Scope Planning: Inputs Required: Work Statement Contract Project Charter Stake Holder Requirements Output Developed: WBS Work Package Activities Schedule, Cost, Quality, HR, Communicate, Risk, Procure, Sub-Contract, Rolling Wave Planning,
  • 15. Engineering: Basic 3 types of engineering 1) Pure Research Engineering 2) Applied Research Engineering 3) Copyright Engineering Material: Basic 4 types of Material: 1)Raw Material: Minimum amount of Processing required before use 2) Bulk Material: Also called Shelf material – ready to use 3) Fabricated Material: Bulk materials modified as per requirement 4) Engineered material: Designed material with substantial amount of engineering required.
  • 16. LABOR (MEN & MACHINES) DIRECT INDIRECT FIXED VARIABLE (80%) FIXED VARIABLE PRIMAVERA: LABOUR, NON-LABOUR, MATERIAL MSP: WORK, MATERIAL, COST OTHERS: SKILLED, SEMI SKILLED, UN-SKILLED
  • 17. Construction Work Flow: Activity Based Costing Division 01 — General Requirements Division 02 — Site Construction Division 03 — Concrete Division 04 — Masonry Division 05 — Metals Division 06 — Wood and Plastics Division 07 — Thermal and Moisture Protection Division 08 — Doors and Windows Division 09 — Finishes Division 10 — Specialties Division 11 — Equipment Division 12 — Furnishings Division 13 — Special Construction Division 14 — Conveying Systems Division 15 — Mechanical Division 16 — Electrical These are used for BOQ preparation & Accounting People:
  • 18. Sno. Description Unit Qty cost Amount HM-DP-01-01-00 General Requirements Lot 1 6,30,000 6,30,000.00 HM-DP-01-02-00 Site Construction Lot 1 5,70,000 5,70,000.00 HM-DP-01-03-00 Concrete Lot 1 3,50,00,000 3,50,00,000.00 HM-DP-01-04-00 Masonry Lot 1 2,30,000 2,30,000.00 HM-DP-01-08-00 Doors and Windows Lot 1 2,80,000 2,80,000.00 HM-DP-01-09-00 Finishes Lot 1 33,00,000 33,00,000.00 HM-DP-01-15-00 Mechanical Lot 1 26,00,000 26,00,000.00 HM-DP-01-16-00 Electrical Lot 1 33,00,000 33,00,000.00 TOTAL 4,59,10,000.00 Typical BOQ Preparation:
  • 19. HM-DP-01-09-00 Finishes LOT Qty Cost 33,00,000.00 HM-DP-01-09-01 Matt Finished Vitrified Tiles (598mm x 598mmx 9mm SQM 6500 360 23,40,000.00 HM-DP-01-09-02 Matt Finished Vitrified Tiles for Concourse Level Toilet (Male, Female & Physically Handicapped) SQM 700 600 4,20,000.00 HM-DP-01-09-03 Vitrified Tiles for Dado SQM 750 700 5,25,000.00 HM-DP-01-09-04 Vitrified Tiles SQM 30 500 5,000.00 Typical Finishes BOQ Items:
  • 20. Estimation: Prediction made before start of any activity or Project. Forecast: Prediction made after the start of any activity or Project. Estimating Techniques 6 Types: Expert Judgment: Expert judgment, guided by historical information, provides valuable insight about the environment and information from prior similar projects. Analogous Estimating: Analogous cost estimating uses the values such as scope, cost, budget, and duration or measures of scale such as size, weight, and complexity from a previous, similar project as the basis for estimating the same parameter or measurement for a current project. When estimating costs, this technique relies on the actual cost of previous, similar projects as the basis for estimating the cost of the current project. Parametric Estimating: Parametric estimating uses a statistical relationship between relevant historical data and other variables (e.g., square footage in construction) to calculate a cost estimate for project work. This technique can produce higher levels of accuracy depending upon the sophistication and underlying data built into the model.
  • 21. Bottom-Up Estimating: Bottom-up estimating is a method of estimating a component of work. The cost of individual work packages or activities is estimated to the greatest level of specified detail. The detailed cost is then summarized or “rolled up” to higher levels for subsequent reporting and tracking purposes. The cost and accuracy of bottom-up cost estimating are typically influenced by the size and complexity of the individual activity or work package. Three-Point Estimating: The accuracy of single-point activity cost estimates may be improved by considering estimation uncertainty and risk and using three estimates to define an approximate range for an activity’s cost: • Most likely (cM). The cost of the activity, based on realistic effort assessment for the required work and any predicted expenses. • Optimistic (cO). The activity cost based on analysis of the best-case scenario for the activity. • Pessimistic (cP). The activity cost based on analysis of the worst-case scenario for the activity Depending on the assumed distribution: Triangular Distribution. cE = (cO + cM + cP) / 3 Beta Distribution (from a traditional PERT analysis). cE = (cO + 4cM + cP) / 6 (Standard Deviation) Reserve Analysis: The contingency reserve may be a percentage of the estimated cost, a fixed number, or may be developed by using quantitative analysis methods.
  • 22. PLANNING FOR SUCCESS IS NO SMALL ENDEAVOR. WHEN DONE WELL, HOWEVER, IT WILL REAP MANY LARGE REWARDS. End of Planning
  • 23.
  • 24. Part II - Scheduling
  • 25. ID DESCRIPTION GANTT CHART / BAR CHART TYPICAL PRIMAVERA BAR CHART
  • 26. Item 01-Jan-1408-Jan-14 15-Jan-14 22-Jan-1429-Jan-14 05-Feb-14 12-Feb-14 19-Feb-14 26-Feb-1405-Mar-14 12-Mar-14 19-Mar-1426-Mar-1402-Apr-1409-Apr-14 Excavation PCC Form Work Rebar Concrete Dismantle FM Wall Planning by Henry Gantt:
  • 27. Flow of Work: Water Fall Method The waterfall model is a sequential process, in which progress is seen as flowing steadily downwards (like a waterfall) through the phases of Conception, Initiation, Analysis, Design, Construction, Testing, Production/Implementation and Maintenance.
  • 28. Network Diagram: Activity on Node and Activity on Arrow:
  • 29. CPM, PERT & CCM: CPM: The Shortest Duration to complete a project in a Networking Path. The critical path is the path where the float is zero. Developed by Dupont and Remington Rand in the 1950’s to manage plant maintenance projects PERT: Progress Evaluation Review Technique: 3 Point Analysis Estimation (Triangular Distribution). Developed by Frederick Taylor and Henry Ford in the 1950’s to manage Polaris Submarine System. CCM: Critical Chain Method proposed by Eliyahu Goldratt in his book Goal.
  • 30.
  • 31. Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM): With advancement of PERT & CPM the network logic diagramming was developed. a 10 ES EF LS LF b 22 ES EF LS LF c 6 ES EF LS LF e 25 ES EF LS LF d 8 ES EF LS LF f 25 ES EF LS LF g 12 ES EF LS LF h 14 ES EF LS LF i 16 ES EF LS LF j 6 ES EF LS LF k 7 ES EF LS LF L 10 ES EF LS LF m 5 ES EF LS LF
  • 32. a 10 1 10 LS LF b 22 11 32 LS LF c 6 33 38 LS LF e 25 11 35 LS LF d 8 39 46 LS LF f 25 36 60 LS LF g 12 61 72 LS LF h 14 73 86 LS LF i 16 11 27 LS LF j 6 28 33 LS LF k 7 34 40 LS LF L 10 41 50 LS LF m 5 47 51 86 52 55 91 LS LFForward Pass A+b+c+d+m a+e+f+g+h+m a+i+j+k+l+m
  • 33. a 10 1 10 1 10 b 22 11 32 51 72 c 6 33 38 73 78 e 25 11 35 11 35 d 8 39 46 79 86 f 25 36 60 36 60 g 12 61 72 61 72 h 14 73 86 73 86 i 16 11 27 47 63 j 6 28 33 64 69 k 7 34 40 70 76 L 10 41 50 77 86 m 5 87 91 LS LFBackward Pass m+d+c+b+a m+h+g+f+e+a m+l+k+j+i+a
  • 34. Scheduling in 5 steps: 1) Identify Activities 2) Establish Relationships 3) Identify Resources 4) Establish Duration 5) Schedule Identify Activities comes from Work Package Relationships : FS, SS, FF, SF along with Lags & Leads Resources Comes from Enterprise Establish Duration from Productivity Norms Schedule : F9 Activity Qty. Unit Crew Productivity Duration Mandays Manhours @ 10 hrs per day Unit Rate hr/cum Excavation 10000 CUM 10 500 20 200 2000 0.2 8 Labor qty/prod crew x 1600 lab 2 Machine duration 400 machine
  • 35. Level 1 Schedule Executive Summary, also called a Project Master Schedule (PMS). Level 2 Schedule Management Summary, also called a Summary Master Schedule (SMS). Level 3 Schedule Project Coordination Schedule (PCS) also called a Publication Schedule. Level 4 Schedule Execution Schedule, also called a Project Working Level Schedule. Level 5 Schedule Detail Schedule. The further breakdown of the activities of a Level 4 Schedule. Level of Schedule:
  • 36. Delay Analysis: There are five type of delay Analysis:
  • 37. Earned Value Analysis: Budgeted Cost Work Performed by total Work Once we have made our progress assessment, Earn value analysis tool will automatically calculate our Earned Value (% complete x Budget for each activity). Various KPI’s (Key Performance Index) can be calculated such as: Cost Variance (CV) – The numerical difference between the earned value (BCWP) and the actual cost (ACWP). CV = BCWP – ACWP. Schedule Variance (SV) - An indicator of how much a program is ahead of or behind schedule. SV = BCWP – BCWS. (Earned value – planned budget, or the difference between the value of work accomplished for a given period and the value of the work planned). Schedule variance is presented well in chart format. Cost Performance Index (CPI) – The cost efficiency factor representing the relationship between the actual cost expended and the earned value. CPI = BCWP/ACWP. A CPI ≥ 1 suggests a relatively efficient cost factor, while a CPI <1 may be cause for concern. Schedule Performance Index (SPI) – The planned schedule efficiency factor representing the relationship between the earned value and the initial planned schedule. SPI = BCWP/BCWS. A SPI ≥ 1 is good. SPI < 1 suggests actual work is falling behind the planned schedule.
  • 38. Budget at Completion (BAC) – Original completion budget for project Estimate to complete (ETC) – A calculated value, in dollars or hours that represents the cost of work required to complete remaining project tasks. ETC = BAC – BCWP. Estimate at Complete (EAC) – A calculated value, in dollars or hours, that represents the projected total final costs of work when completed. EAC = ACWP + ETC. It is usual to review the progress report at a monthly meeting to decide where action needs to be taken. EVA will tell you where you have a problem, and what you need to do to finish the job on time, providing all stakeholders with a visibility of progress vs plan.
  • 39. Progress Measurement: There are 6 Types of Progress measurement: Units Method Supervisory Method Start – Finish Method Cost Factor Method Incremental Method Weight Factor Method
  • 40. Establishing Weights: Contribution Factor Method Description of Sub-System Cost in Crs Duration - Total No of Weeks Level of Effort (Scale of 5) Criticality (Scale of 5) Risk factor (Scale of 5) Percentage Round Figure ENGINEERING 12.00 30.00 3.00 3.00 5.00 9.16% 9.00% PROCUREMENT 60.00 40.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 25.10% 25.00% CONSTRUCTION 159.00 80.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 55.74% 56.00% TESTING & COMM. 15.00 12.00 5.00 5.00 3.00 10.01% 10.00% Total 246.00 162.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 Weitage Factor 70% 10% 5% 10% 5% 100.00% 100.00% Cost 70% Duration 10% Manhours (LOE) 5% Criticality 10% Risk Factor 5% LEVEL 1
  • 41.
  • 42. - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 CASTING Vs ERECTION - PLAN Vs ACTUAL- Month WisePlan Progress (Casting) Actual Progress (Casting) Casting Progress (Cum) Casting Actual (Cum) Erection Progress (Cum) GENERAL, -2.48% ENGINEERING , -0.95% PROCUREMENT, - 13.17% CONSTRUCTION, -19.23% T&C, -1.47% Overall Variance Analysis