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Multivariate evaluation of
a physically based distributed model in
snow-fed river basins of
Hindu Kush Himalayan Region
Dr. Sangam Shrestha
Assistant Professor, WEM, AIT
Pallav Kumar Shrestha
Research Associate, WEM, AIT
[PRESENTER]
Background, Study AreaINTRODUCTION
OUTLINE
Bias correction, Modeling approach,
Evaluation approach
METHODOLOGY
Sensitivity Analysis, Model evaluation –
hydrologic and snow response, Equifinality
RESULTS
Findings, LimitationsCONCLUSION
BACKGROUND
- Recent evidences
- Low latitude mountainous cyrosphere
undergoing change
- HKH lies in this range
- Distinct pattern – glaciers east of
Karakoram experiencing negative mass
balances
- Hindu-Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya
(HKH)
- Third pole, Water Towers of Asia
- Highest points on Earth – data scarcity
- Snow Dominant hydrology…
- Snow as a second variable to
validate!
- Multivariate Model Evaluation
- Q and Snow Cover (MODIS)
- Snow cover – spatial distribution
- Distributed modeling
- Precipitation coverage
- Precipitation forcing at higher
altitudes
- APHRODITE estimates
- Panday et al (2013) - Tamor
- Hydrology evaluation
- Drawbacks of NSE and R2
- Tailoring of balanced set of criteria
INTRODUCTION
STUDY AREA
INTRODUCTION
China
India
Nepal
Koshi
Basin
Tamor Basin
Koshi
Basin
8385
masl
235
masl
(outlet) CA : 5884 km2
Tamor
DEM
DATA . PRECIPITATION FORCING . BIAS CORRECTION
METHODOLOGY
Data Source
Topography ASTER – METI (Japan) and NASA
Hydrometeorology DHM, Nepal
Precipitation Estimate APHRODITE, Japan
Land use Survey Department, Nepal
Soil SOTER – ISRIC
Snow Cover MODIS (processed by ICIMOD)
- Hybrid precipitation input
- Ground Stations Data for lower
elevations (9 rain gauges)
- APHRODITE estimates for higher
elevation (6 fabricated stations)
- Power Transformation Method
- To remove bias in APHRODITE
precipitation estimate
𝑷 𝒄𝒐𝒓𝒓 = 𝒂. 𝑷 𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒐𝒓𝒓
𝒃
- FORTRAN code utilizing secant root
finding algorithm developed
Multivariate Modeling . SWAT . Snow Cover
METHODOLOGY
HYDROLOGY
- Calibration – 2000 to 2003
(4 yrs.); Validation – 2004 to
2006 (3 yrs.)
SNOW COVER
- Data for validation – RS
Snow Cover (MODIS) –
spatial data
- SWAT gives tabulated
output of SWE (Snow Water
Equivalent) in each elevation
band of each HRU
- Tabulated  Spatial –
ArcGIS model builder
- Pixel by pixel comparison
using Snow Pixel Efficiency
(Seff) 𝑆 𝑒𝑓𝑓 =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑐𝑕𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑
𝑋 100 %
MODISSWAT
Evaluation Indices for Hydrology
METHODOLOGY
- R2, NSE, PBIAS – popular criteria for
hydrology simulation
- Drawback of R2
- Biased to the pattern of the hydrograph
- Under/over-estimation - Unchecked
- weighted R2 incorporated
- Limitation of NSE
- Biased to simulation of higher flows
- Relative NSE incorporated
𝑁𝑆𝐸𝑟𝑒𝑙 = 1 −
𝑦 𝑜𝑏𝑠− 𝑦 𝑠𝑖𝑚
𝒚 𝒐𝒃𝒔
2
𝑦 𝑜𝑏𝑠− 𝑦 𝑜𝑏𝑠
𝒚 𝒐𝒃𝒔
2
R2 = 1
wR2 = 0.7
𝑤𝑅2
=
𝑏 . 𝑅2
𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑏 ≤ 1
𝑏 −1
. 𝑅2
𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑏 > 1 2011 2012
Sensitivity Analysis . Bias Correction
RESULTS
SWAT Cup
Alpha_Bnk
Ch_N2
Ch_K2
SNO50COV
TIMP
1
2
3
5
6
Power Transformation
– APHRODITE Rainfall
Uncorrected
MBE
Corrected
RMSE
Multivariate Evaluation – Discharge
RESULTS
NSE 0.73
NSErel 0.89
NSE 0.78
NSErel 0.87
Multivariate Evaluation – Snow Cover Extent
RESULTS
- Hundreds of maps
representing daily Snow Cover
from SWAT throughout 2000 -
2007
- Overall average Snow Pixel
Efficiency (Seff) throughout
model years : 78.7 %
- Median – 76.2%
- Maximum – 89.4%
- Seff utilized by Pelliciotti et al
(2012) Average of
Model Period
Seff : 78.7 %
Multivariate Evaluation – Equifinality
RESULTS
Indicators
Without Snow
Calibration
Optimizing
SNO50COV
Calibration Validation Calibration Validation
R2 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.79
wR2 0.53 0.66 0.57 0.70
NSE 0.69 0.76 0.71 0.77
NSErel 0.88 0.90 0.88 0.89
PBIAS -14.5 -6.9 -13.6 -6.4
Seff 0.71 0.79
Seff 0.71 Seff 0.79
CONCLUSIONS
- Power Transformation Method - a
successful Bias correction method
- Precipitation forcing – Hybrid
approach : gridded data + ground
data – tackle data scarcity
- Distributed modelling – possibility
of Multivariate evaluation
- SWAT model – Decent
performance in both hydrology
and snow extent
- Hydrology evaluation indices –
balanced set of evaluation criteria
with NSErel and weighted R2
- Multivariate evaluation – dealing
with Equifinality
CONCLUSIONS
- Bias correction of temperature
- APHRODITE – daily single value
- SWAT – daily extremes (2 values)
- Temporal variability of Lapse rates
- SWAT – single value for all seasons
- Temporal stationarity
- Glacial hydrology
- 10.6 % of Tamor is Glaciers (GLIMS database)
- Next step – models with glacier/ ice module
- SWAT Holes - Why??
- Spatial coverage incomplete due to thresholds
in HRU definition step
- ~22% blank in Tamor SWAT model
- Next step – fully distributed model
LIMITATIONS
Gratitude
Thank you for your attention!

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Pallav kumar shrestha

  • 1. Multivariate evaluation of a physically based distributed model in snow-fed river basins of Hindu Kush Himalayan Region Dr. Sangam Shrestha Assistant Professor, WEM, AIT Pallav Kumar Shrestha Research Associate, WEM, AIT [PRESENTER]
  • 2. Background, Study AreaINTRODUCTION OUTLINE Bias correction, Modeling approach, Evaluation approach METHODOLOGY Sensitivity Analysis, Model evaluation – hydrologic and snow response, Equifinality RESULTS Findings, LimitationsCONCLUSION
  • 3. BACKGROUND - Recent evidences - Low latitude mountainous cyrosphere undergoing change - HKH lies in this range - Distinct pattern – glaciers east of Karakoram experiencing negative mass balances - Hindu-Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) - Third pole, Water Towers of Asia - Highest points on Earth – data scarcity - Snow Dominant hydrology… - Snow as a second variable to validate! - Multivariate Model Evaluation - Q and Snow Cover (MODIS) - Snow cover – spatial distribution - Distributed modeling - Precipitation coverage - Precipitation forcing at higher altitudes - APHRODITE estimates - Panday et al (2013) - Tamor - Hydrology evaluation - Drawbacks of NSE and R2 - Tailoring of balanced set of criteria INTRODUCTION
  • 5. DATA . PRECIPITATION FORCING . BIAS CORRECTION METHODOLOGY Data Source Topography ASTER – METI (Japan) and NASA Hydrometeorology DHM, Nepal Precipitation Estimate APHRODITE, Japan Land use Survey Department, Nepal Soil SOTER – ISRIC Snow Cover MODIS (processed by ICIMOD) - Hybrid precipitation input - Ground Stations Data for lower elevations (9 rain gauges) - APHRODITE estimates for higher elevation (6 fabricated stations) - Power Transformation Method - To remove bias in APHRODITE precipitation estimate 𝑷 𝒄𝒐𝒓𝒓 = 𝒂. 𝑷 𝒖𝒏𝒄𝒐𝒓𝒓 𝒃 - FORTRAN code utilizing secant root finding algorithm developed
  • 6. Multivariate Modeling . SWAT . Snow Cover METHODOLOGY HYDROLOGY - Calibration – 2000 to 2003 (4 yrs.); Validation – 2004 to 2006 (3 yrs.) SNOW COVER - Data for validation – RS Snow Cover (MODIS) – spatial data - SWAT gives tabulated output of SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) in each elevation band of each HRU - Tabulated  Spatial – ArcGIS model builder - Pixel by pixel comparison using Snow Pixel Efficiency (Seff) 𝑆 𝑒𝑓𝑓 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑐𝑕𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑋 100 % MODISSWAT
  • 7. Evaluation Indices for Hydrology METHODOLOGY - R2, NSE, PBIAS – popular criteria for hydrology simulation - Drawback of R2 - Biased to the pattern of the hydrograph - Under/over-estimation - Unchecked - weighted R2 incorporated - Limitation of NSE - Biased to simulation of higher flows - Relative NSE incorporated 𝑁𝑆𝐸𝑟𝑒𝑙 = 1 − 𝑦 𝑜𝑏𝑠− 𝑦 𝑠𝑖𝑚 𝒚 𝒐𝒃𝒔 2 𝑦 𝑜𝑏𝑠− 𝑦 𝑜𝑏𝑠 𝒚 𝒐𝒃𝒔 2 R2 = 1 wR2 = 0.7 𝑤𝑅2 = 𝑏 . 𝑅2 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑏 ≤ 1 𝑏 −1 . 𝑅2 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑏 > 1 2011 2012
  • 8. Sensitivity Analysis . Bias Correction RESULTS SWAT Cup Alpha_Bnk Ch_N2 Ch_K2 SNO50COV TIMP 1 2 3 5 6 Power Transformation – APHRODITE Rainfall Uncorrected MBE Corrected RMSE
  • 9. Multivariate Evaluation – Discharge RESULTS NSE 0.73 NSErel 0.89 NSE 0.78 NSErel 0.87
  • 10. Multivariate Evaluation – Snow Cover Extent RESULTS - Hundreds of maps representing daily Snow Cover from SWAT throughout 2000 - 2007 - Overall average Snow Pixel Efficiency (Seff) throughout model years : 78.7 % - Median – 76.2% - Maximum – 89.4% - Seff utilized by Pelliciotti et al (2012) Average of Model Period Seff : 78.7 %
  • 11. Multivariate Evaluation – Equifinality RESULTS Indicators Without Snow Calibration Optimizing SNO50COV Calibration Validation Calibration Validation R2 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.79 wR2 0.53 0.66 0.57 0.70 NSE 0.69 0.76 0.71 0.77 NSErel 0.88 0.90 0.88 0.89 PBIAS -14.5 -6.9 -13.6 -6.4 Seff 0.71 0.79 Seff 0.71 Seff 0.79
  • 12. CONCLUSIONS - Power Transformation Method - a successful Bias correction method - Precipitation forcing – Hybrid approach : gridded data + ground data – tackle data scarcity - Distributed modelling – possibility of Multivariate evaluation - SWAT model – Decent performance in both hydrology and snow extent - Hydrology evaluation indices – balanced set of evaluation criteria with NSErel and weighted R2 - Multivariate evaluation – dealing with Equifinality
  • 13. CONCLUSIONS - Bias correction of temperature - APHRODITE – daily single value - SWAT – daily extremes (2 values) - Temporal variability of Lapse rates - SWAT – single value for all seasons - Temporal stationarity - Glacial hydrology - 10.6 % of Tamor is Glaciers (GLIMS database) - Next step – models with glacier/ ice module - SWAT Holes - Why?? - Spatial coverage incomplete due to thresholds in HRU definition step - ~22% blank in Tamor SWAT model - Next step – fully distributed model LIMITATIONS
  • 14. Gratitude Thank you for your attention!